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Interesting poll of Hillary and Trump.

Kal'Stang

Kal'Stang

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Found this reading rather interesting. I'm sure that there will be those that holler "well, its just a right wing poll site" or make some other claim other than actually discussing the poll. But oh well. :shrug:

Rasmussen poll

Like they say in their article I'd like to point out that a 1% difference is with in the 1-3 plus/minus error rate of polls. What I find interesting is that maybe this election isn't near as certain of Hillary winning as so many like to claim. Including me who thinks that Hillary will more than likely win also.
 
Time spent tracking this traffic jam of nearly useless polls is time that nobody will ever get back.

We know how much "journalism" sucks now, dont we?

We might as well be reading old time Hearst Papers.

Equally Enlightening.
 
Kal'Stang said:
Found this reading rather interesting. I'm sure that there will be those that holler "well, its just a right wing poll site" or make some other claim other than actually discussing the poll. But oh well. :shrug:

Rasmussen poll

Like they say in their article I'd like to point out that a 1% difference is with in the 1-3 plus/minus error rate of polls. What I find interesting is that maybe this election isn't near as certain of Hillary winning as so many like to claim. Including me who thinks that Hillary will more than likely win also.
Click to expand...

I suspect it was due to Trump pretending to soften his immigration stance but after going back hardline I think we will see Hillary start gaining again
 
Kal'Stang said:
Found this reading rather interesting. I'm sure that there will be those that holler "well, its just a right wing poll site" or make some other claim other than actually discussing the poll. But oh well. :shrug:
Click to expand...

Well, the argument that we are only looking at this poll because of selection bias wouldn't be completely wrong if the only reason you picked this poll to discuss is because it shows a result that is outside the norm. Not that I really care, you are free to discuss whatever you want. My real argument for any thread regarding any one poll for this entire political season is "why are we talking about this one poll when we have a mountain of polling data and geniuses have already sorted through them and found the reliable polsters and have combined the data?" I just don't see the point of it. Clearly the aggregated data is much better than any poll picked at random, especially if that poll was picked simply because its results go against the trend.

So my argument is "polling isn't gospel, but when you look at the overall picture, it will give you a good idea of who is ahead and if the candidates are going up or down etc."

Kal'Stang said:
Rasmussen poll

Like they say in their article I'd like to point out that a 1% difference is with in the 1-3 plus/minus error rate of polls.
Click to expand...

Correct. But it's also worthwhile to point out that they 1-3% error rate is only relative to the data of the poll itself. Alot of people take this to mean that if a poll finds candidate A is up by 1, 2% Margin of Error, therefor she might be up by 3, or down by 1. But there's no way she's up by more than 3 or down by more than 1. Which just isn't true. It's possibly the poll didn't have an accurate representation of the voting populace. A comparison would be if I asked everyone entering wal-marts accross the country "Hillary or Trump?" and then tell you "the national average for my poll is Hillary down by 5, margin of error is 2%". The margin of error is for people entering walmart because that's the only people I was reaching. Hillary could actually be up by 5 because my selection was so biased. So the MOE is just a number derived at based on number of people polled, but in no way tells you if the actual people polled represent an accurate representation.

Kal'Stang said:
What I find interesting is that maybe this election isn't near as certain of Hillary winning as so many like to claim. Including me who thinks that Hillary will more than likely win also.
Click to expand...


Hillary is ahead currently, but the election is tightening up and Hillary isn't a shoe in. I think the averages had Hillary up by 7-8 and now we are talking more like 4-5 and we need to keep checking the data to see if it gets closer than 4-5. What I didn't think you can say is "this poll shows Trump up by 1, so maybe he's actually ahead right now!" If the election were today Hillary would win. I think that's almost a sure thing. But if everything continues tightening, then Trump can certainly squeak out a win.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
Time spent tracking this traffic jam of nearly useless polls is time that nobody will ever get back.

We know how much "journalism" sucks now, dont we?

We might as well be reading old time Hearst Papers.

Equally Enlightening.
Click to expand...

There are statistics gurus that have been able to figure out who's going to win an election with insanely accurate results based all on polling. To say it means nothing is the political equivaent of sticking your head int he sand. No, polling today won't tell us what changes in the election tomorrow, but it gives us a very good snapshot of who's ahead and who's moving up and down.

Which if you don't care about that, then I understand and more power to you. But to act as though it's "useless"? That's just not accurate.
 
Kal'Stang said:
Found this reading rather interesting. I'm sure that there will be those that holler "well, its just a right wing poll site" or make some other claim other than actually discussing the poll. But oh well. :shrug:

Rasmussen poll

Like they say in their article I'd like to point out that a 1% difference is with in the 1-3 plus/minus error rate of polls. What I find interesting is that maybe this election isn't near as certain of Hillary winning as so many like to claim. Including me who thinks that Hillary will more than likely win also.
Click to expand...

Hillary doesn't have much campaigning on her calendar. She did a rally at a VFW yesterday and her reception was luke warm. She hasn't done a press conference in more than 270 days. She is spending money by the barrel full. There are more revelations about the State Department and Clinton due out in the next few weeks. Hillary's numbers have been declining. She could be waiting to go back on the trail after the polls. That would be a stupid move but she can't seem to be able to learn how to use email on a desk top PC so who knows.

Trump has managed to stay on track, is actively campaigning and bought his first block of advertising for 10 mil last week. His numbers are going up.

There are still 68 days till the election. The pollsters start working on real tight accuracy at the 30 day mark. The first debate is September 26th (a little over three weeks away) and the debates can have a huge effect on the poll numbers. It is going to be interesting.
 
Kal'Stang said:
Found this reading rather interesting. I'm sure that there will be those that holler "well, its just a right wing poll site" or make some other claim other than actually discussing the poll. But oh well. :shrug:

Rasmussen poll

Like they say in their article I'd like to point out that a 1% difference is with in the 1-3 plus/minus error rate of polls. What I find interesting is that maybe this election isn't near as certain of Hillary winning as so many like to claim. Including me who thinks that Hillary will more than likely win also.
Click to expand...

It is a data point. Big picture using all the polls recently still has Clinton with a pretty sizable, but diminishing lead. Still lots of time. The election is by no means over.
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
Hilliary clinton is prepared for the election.

She had a very good August in terms of fundraising.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/01/clin...ion-for-her-campaign-democrats-in-august.html
Click to expand...

Which in no way invalidates anything I said. I think she will most likely win. That does not change the fact that the polls are narrowing, that she is not as far ahead as she was, that there is still plenty of time, and she could still lose, and that this poll is another data point. It is a legitimately done poll, with a measurable margin of error and confidence level.
 
Unitedwestand13 said:
Hilliary clinton is prepared for the election.

She had a very good August in terms of fundraising.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/09/01/clin...ion-for-her-campaign-democrats-in-august.html
Click to expand...

Unfortunately, dollars don't get a vote, people do. Hillary is needing money to get noticed. Trump manages to get noticed for free.

Examples: Trump flies to Mexico for a sit down with the Mexican President. The press covers, and somewhat favorably. Anybody remember the Hillary ads? Or where she was?

Trump flies to La and the press covers and somewhat favorably. Anybody remember where Hillary was? Or her ads?
 
Its Rasmussen.

Like they used to say in the old classic Marvel Comics............" .... nuff said".
 
roughdraft274 said:
There are statistics gurus that have been able to figure out who's going to win an election with insanely accurate results based all on polling. To say it means nothing is the political equivaent of sticking your head int he sand. No, polling today won't tell us what changes in the election tomorrow, but it gives us a very good snapshot of who's ahead and who's moving up and down.

Which if you don't care about that, then I understand and more power to you. But to act as though it's "useless"? That's just not accurate.
Click to expand...

Time will tell.
 
roughdraft274 said:
Time has already spoken. This isn't the first election that we've taken polls on. Polling is far from useless.
Click to expand...

The word has changed. We dont know that the old instruments and the old techs still combine to get the right result.
 
Hawkeye10 said:
The word has changed. We dont know that the old instruments and the old techs still combine to get the right result.
Click to expand...

The old instruments and tech worked just fine for the primaries just a few months ago. You think the world flipped on its head in just the last two months?

This sounds a lot more like wishful thinking on your part than any kind of actual well thought out and meaningful comment.
 
roughdraft274 said:
The old instruments and tech worked just fine for the primaries just a few months ago. You think the world flipped on its head in just the last two months?

This sounds a lot more like wishful thinking on your part than any kind of actual well thought out and meaningful comment.
Click to expand...

Fair enough, we all need to call our own corners.

I respect U running your life, you do likewise.

That's how civilized folk do it.

I aspire to be civilized.

As well as fair.

Hope U DO 2.

:cowboy:
 
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Hawkeye10 said:
Fair enough, we all need to call our own corners.

I respect U running your life, you do likewise.

That's how civilized folk do it.

I aspire to be civilized.

As well as fair.

Hope U DO 2.

:cowboy:
Click to expand...

Ok....
 
Kal'Stang said:
Found this reading rather interesting. I'm sure that there will be those that holler "well, its just a right wing poll site" or make some other claim other than actually discussing the poll. But oh well. :shrug:

Rasmussen poll

Like they say in their article I'd like to point out that a 1% difference is with in the 1-3 plus/minus error rate of polls. What I find interesting is that maybe this election isn't near as certain of Hillary winning as so many like to claim. Including me who thinks that Hillary will more than likely win also.
Click to expand...

Personally I think most polls will be ridiculously wrong this election period. I think trump is pulling people from the left that no one can fathom and that will be the deal breaker. He will win by a large margin unless Obama figures out or already has a plan to taint the election. That is my only fear here with regards to this election. We will begin to see more and more talk of election fraud as we go into the next 60 days. FBI wanting to investigate. The attorney general getting involved not unlike her meeting bill on the plane to discuss his family. I believe Obama has a strategic plan and things will get very scary on the 8th of November and beyond. I hope I'm wrong but for those reading, if this plays out as stated, don't ignore the obvious-please.
 
EvaPeron said:
Personally I think most polls will be ridiculously wrong this election period. I think trump is pulling people from the left that no one can fathom and that will be the deal breaker. He will win by a large margin unless Obama figures out or already has a plan to taint the election. That is my only fear here with regards to this election. We will begin to see more and more talk of election fraud as we go into the next 60 days. FBI wanting to investigate. The attorney general getting involved not unlike her meeting bill on the plane to discuss his family. I believe Obama has a strategic plan and things will get very scary on the 8th of November and beyond. I hope I'm wrong but for those reading, if this plays out as stated, don't ignore the obvious-please.
Click to expand...

OK, fine with me cause I respect your right to have the opinions of your choice, but that aint how the approved script goes.
 
EvaPeron said:
Personally I think most polls will be ridiculously wrong this election period. I think trump is pulling people from the left that no one can fathom and that will be the deal breaker. He will win by a large margin unless Obama figures out or already has a plan to taint the election. That is my only fear here with regards to this election. We will begin to see more and more talk of election fraud as we go into the next 60 days. FBI wanting to investigate. The attorney general getting involved not unlike her meeting bill on the plane to discuss his family. I believe Obama has a strategic plan and things will get very scary on the 8th of November and beyond. I hope I'm wrong but for those reading, if this plays out as stated, don't ignore the obvious-please.
Click to expand...

Well, I see you've already constructed your excuse. If the polls aren't historically wrong, Obama rigged the vote.

Outside of gut feeling, where is your evidence that Trump is going to pull unfathomable numbers from "the left," which despises him?
 
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Kobie said:
Well, I see you've already constructed your excuse. If the polls aren't historically wrong, Obama rigged the vote.

Outside of gut feeling, where is your evidence that Trump is going to pull unfathomable numbers from "the left," which despises him?
Click to expand...

That's a good question - I guess I can't just say my gut tells me :). Why do I feel this way? First, if you look at the support around this country, the rallies, the internet and tv coverage, the turnout, the excitement, EVERYTHING points to people being very, very excited about him as the candidate. He is pulling thousands and thousands of people at each of his speeches and gatherings. Look across the country at the cars/the yard signs etc. People are really excited about him. The media covers him non stop because why? I know you'll say something different but the truth is because he sells. And why does he sell? Why do people not watch regular TV as much to tune into the news to see him? Again, because they are excited and want to stay tuned in. I also look at the turnout for the primaries and the number of votes he received (far and above any other candidate ever). The second thing that strikes me with regards to this election, is how many people like myself, are being ignored by the polls and being ignored by the media who WILL vote Trump. The media likes to taunt that only white males will vote, but that is not true. He has close to the same number of Hispanic votes maybe more right now as Mitt Romney did. He has and continues to speak to the black voters and that will end up being more than Mitt Romney had. There are Republicans who say never Trump - okay, I get that. But I think his numbers will be pushed over the top when all the fed up white male and female voters who are Democrats or Liberals or maybe never voted before come to this election. I think that will be the deciding factor - people like me who will never again vote under the Democrat ticket. And, I believe if he stays on message, he will win over the immigrants that came here legally that can vote because those people see how unfair it is to their families that they paid the price to get here but others just sneak through and take the benefits that they should be earning. Same with Black voters, if he stays on message, I believe they will wake up to the fact that the Democrats have done nothing to improve their lot in life. Maybe not the thugs, but all the good ones will and there are a lot of good legal immigrants and others who will make a stand. Polls (IMO) are not accurate and especially not accurate in this election year. Too much is going on in our world -

And, the last thing, no, I don't use a corrupt system as why he could lose. I truly feel that Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are capable of the worst types of fraud upon the American people. So if I say that I feel the election results will or might be tainted, I base it on all of the corruption that has happened over these last 2 terms with Obama and Hillary in power.
 
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