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Trump 44% clinton 37%

Rasmussen is the only poll that has Trump actually winning and its history in predicting the presidential election doesnt fare to well in recent history.

So I went back and checked.

In 2016 (as of today) there have been 74 polls. Trump has won 9 of them. 5 of them were Rasmussen. Within the last two months, there have been three that showed Trump ahead - all of which were Rasmussen.

There were 11 polls in May, and three of them showed Trump ahead (making May the best month that Trump has had this year), and one was Rasmussen, one was FOX, and one was ABC/Wash Post.

Rasmussen has shown Trump with 5 wins, 6 losses, and 1 tie, making them far and away the most pro-Trump pollster (as far as results are concerned). Next is FOX (2 wins out of 7 polls), and ABC and USA Today both have a one-off.

If you take an average of all polls since Trump wrapped up the nomination in Indiana (May 3), Clinton has an average of a 4.33% lead. If you take Rasmussen out, that lead rises to 5.08%. If you try to balance by taking out the most pro-Hillary poll during that time period (Reuters), Hillary's lead drops back to 4.35%. If you compile only Rasmussen Reports polling, Hillary is still winning, but well within the margin of error (0.8%).
 
So I went back and checked.

In 2016 (as of today) there have been 74 polls. Trump has won 9 of them. 5 of them were Rasmussen. Within the last two months, there have been three that showed Trump ahead - all of which were Rasmussen.

There were 11 polls in May, and three of them showed Trump ahead (making May the best month that Trump has had this year), and one was Rasmussen, one was FOX, and one was ABC/Wash Post.

Rasmussen has shown Trump with 5 wins, 6 losses, and 1 tie, making them far and away the most pro-Trump pollster (as far as results are concerned). Next is FOX (2 wins out of 7 polls), and ABC and USA Today both have a one-off.

If you take an average of all polls since Trump wrapped up the nomination in Indiana (May 3), Clinton has an average of a 4.33% lead. If you take Rasmussen out, that lead rises to 5.08%. If you try to balance by taking out the most pro-Hillary poll during that time period (Reuters), Hillary's lead drops back to 4.35%. If you compile only Rasmussen Reports polling, Hillary is still winning, but well within the margin of error (0.8%).

Good analysis. I was basing my statement mainly off the RCP polling averages recently.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - General Election: Trump vs. Clinton
 
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