March 15th 2016 Primary Predictions

Exquisitor said:

I want you crystal ball seers to come back here after the primaries and post your stats.

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akrunner88 said:

I'm curious to see what everyone's predictions are and to see who is the most accurate on Wednesday.

Up on the Dem side:

Florida - Gonna say Hillary by less than 10%
Illinois - Bernie by 10%
Missouri - Bernie by 5%
North Carolina - Hillary by 10%+
Ohio - Bernie by 10%+

I'm probably being way too optimistic for Bernie but polling shows him winning in Illinois now and neck-n-neck in other states with the exception of Florida and North Carolina.

For the Republicans:

Florida - Trump
Illinois - Trump
Missouri - Cruz
Ohio - Kasich, but possible Trump upset
Northern Mariannas - Trump
North Carolina - Trump overwhelmingly

For the Republicans this race is the most critical of all because Florida, Illinois, Missouri, Ohio and North M. are pretty much all Winner-Take-All and if Trump can win the majority of those, his lead may be hard for anyone to catch up with even if Kasich and Rubio drop out on Wednesday.

For the Democrats, if Bernie can upset Hillary in most of the states (3/5) then the conversation for him to stay in solidifies as the primary schedule going forth is favorable to Bernie (western, rest of NE states, northern states). A good showing tomorrow could set Bernie up to overtake her, especially if he can win New York and California.

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Chomsky said:

I've been out of the political news-cycle for over a week, so I'll only touch on some facets: I happen to agree with your GOP picks pretty much exactly. As for the Dems, I will only comment on Illinois, as I see the Dem Party (Chicago) Machine producing for Hillary.

But I will venture this in addition: Trump will win FL, but if he doesn't additionally win OH it will be possible to go into Cleveland with the required votes, but it will be iffy for him at best. If he wins both FL & OH, it's all over and Trump is the GOP guy! (I don't see Trump taking OH either, as you already stated).

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akrunner88 said:

While I don't disagree with Illinois entirely, I can tell you as someone that grew up in Illinois who has many friends my age voting, the vast majority of them my age are voting for Bernie Sanders. And there are massive "Bring out the vote" campaigns going on all across the university systems that are almost entirely 90% going to Bernie. His youth grass roots campaigning there is probably far stronger than it was in Michigan and I could see record turnout possible. He also has very influential members of the Hispanic group campaigning for Sanders.

I could potentially see Bernie winning in Illinois by over 60% to be quite honest, if the polling done so far in Illinois isn't indicative of his youth support. That's if, and only if these voters actually show up to vote. But the mobilization is real, as you saw on Friday with the Trump rally counter protests.

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Chomsky said:

All fair points, and to also be even fairer: the Dem Machine under Rham ain't what it used to be under the Old Man (Daley, the father).

But I still think they'll install HRC.

You might be interested in this video:

Chicago Anti-Trump Protester: Safety Was First Concern

The subject of the video come's across more sensible than his initial appearances might suggest. (I suppose my comment might be a generational thing - I dress pretty old school & still worship The Rat Pack!)

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akrunner88 said:

I'll take a look. And I'm hopefully optimistic about tomorrow, I feel like this is do-or-die for Bernie and if he can win 3 of 5 races tomorrow we are still good.

Also, been reading into Ohio a little more since I first posted this thread and it's looking like Trump has closed up a lot of that gap in Ohio. If Trump wins both Florida and Ohio, I'd venture to say that this race is over on the GOP end because mathematically, he should be able to secure enough delegates to avoid a brokered convention.

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