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Is there a scenario where Trump doesn't win the nomination?

imagep

imagep

Villiage Idiot
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I'm having a tough time coming up with one.

Doesn't seem to really matter what he says, no matter how offensive, it just gets him more publicity and doesn't cost him any support. The standard opinion seems to be that as other candidates drop out, their supporters will go to more main stream candidates, and eventually so me mainstream candidate will rise above trump - but that's not happening either, every time someone drops out, Trump seems to get his fair share of their supporters.

And I realize that Trumps negatives are huge, and that lots of republicans say that they will never vote for him, but Trump doesn't have to get to 50% in the polls, he just has to win the most delegates. It looks like there is almost no chance that anyone other than Trump will win 3 out of the first 4 primaries (most likely all four), which will give Trump such a head start and so much competitive inertia that I can't see how he would be stoppable. Even if other candidates start dropping out after those early primaries, even if Trump gets just one fourth of their supporters, no candidate would even be able to match Trumps popularity until we get down to 3 candidates (Trump plus two others), and that's likely going to be so late in the primaries that Trump would have already collected half the delegates or more.

And Trump is pretty much immune to scandals, just because he's never held public office before and republicans don't really care about private sector corruption, they accept that as normal.

Also, there is still some talk about a third party run. I can't imagine why Trump would want to do that when he is already almost guaranteed to win the republican nomination, other than just to screw with republicans.
 
He is a Hillary plant and has no intention of becoming president. His only purpose is to draw votes away from the republicans so that Hillary can win. When the time comes he will step aside.
 
imagep said:
I'm having a tough time coming up with one.

Doesn't seem to really matter what he says, no matter how offensive, it just gets him more publicity and doesn't cost him any support. The standard opinion seems to be that as other candidates drop out, their supporters will go to more main stream candidates, and eventually so me mainstream candidate will rise above trump - but that's not happening either, every time someone drops out, Trump seems to get his fair share of their supporters.

And I realize that Trumps negatives are huge, and that lots of republicans say that they will never vote for him, but Trump doesn't have to get to 50% in the polls, he just has to win the most delegates. It looks like there is almost no chance that anyone other than Trump will win 3 out of the first 4 primaries (most likely all four), which will give Trump such a head start and so much competitive inertia that I can't see how he would be stoppable. Even if other candidates start dropping out after those early primaries, even if Trump gets just one fourth of their supporters, no candidate would even be able to match Trumps popularity until we get down to 3 candidates (Trump plus two others), and that's likely going to be so late in the primaries that Trump would have already collected half the delegates or more.

And Trump is pretty much immune to scandals, just because he's never held public office before and republicans don't really care about private sector corruption, they accept that as normal.

Also, there is still some talk about a third party run. I can't imagine why Trump would want to do that when he is already almost guaranteed to win the republican nomination, other than just to screw with republicans.
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"Is there a scenario where Trump doesn't win the nomination?"

There isnt a single scenario where he does win the nomination
 
Ancient Herald said:
He is a Hillary plant and has no intention of becoming president. His only purpose is to draw votes away from the republicans so that Hillary can win. When the time comes he will step aside.
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If that's actually true....then that means that there are a lot of really dumb Republicans out there! LOL.
 
imagep said:
I'm having a tough time coming up with one.

Doesn't seem to really matter what he says, no matter how offensive, it just gets him more publicity and doesn't cost him any support. The standard opinion seems to be that as other candidates drop out, their supporters will go to more main stream candidates, and eventually so me mainstream candidate will rise above trump - but that's not happening either, every time someone drops out, Trump seems to get his fair share of their supporters.

And I realize that Trumps negatives are huge, and that lots of republicans say that they will never vote for him, but Trump doesn't have to get to 50% in the polls, he just has to win the most delegates. It looks like there is almost no chance that anyone other than Trump will win 3 out of the first 4 primaries (most likely all four), which will give Trump such a head start and so much competitive inertia that I can't see how he would be stoppable. Even if other candidates start dropping out after those early primaries, even if Trump gets just one fourth of their supporters, no candidate would even be able to match Trumps popularity until we get down to 3 candidates (Trump plus two others), and that's likely going to be so late in the primaries that Trump would have already collected half the delegates or more.

And Trump is pretty much immune to scandals, just because he's never held public office before and republicans don't really care about private sector corruption, they accept that as normal.

Also, there is still some talk about a third party run. I can't imagine why Trump would want to do that when he is already almost guaranteed to win the republican nomination, other than just to screw with republicans.
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The whole crop of contenders is somewhat a disappointment this time. I cannot think of one that I could vote for for any other reason than that it was the less horrible candidate.
 
Crovax said:
"Is there a scenario where Trump doesn't win the nomination?"

There isnt a single scenario where he does win the nomination
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Except that he is waaaaaaaaay ahead in all the polls and has been for months and months.
 
Ancient Herald said:
He is a Hillary plant and has no intention of becoming president. His only purpose is to draw votes away from the republicans so that Hillary can win. When the time comes he will step aside.
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Hmm...interesting take.
 
disneydude said:
If that's actually true....then that means that there are a lot of really dumb Republicans out there! LOL.
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The problem is that the other side is no better.
 
disneydude said:
Except that he is waaaaaaaaay ahead in all the polls and has been for months and months.
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Polls this early are meaningless. In addition to the usual issues with early polls, only a handful of political junkies are paying attention right now.

We've also seen, over and over, how someone (typically an "outsider") who leads early crashes and burns once voters actually start paying attention.
 
Ancient Herald said:
He is a Hillary plant and has no intention of becoming president. His only purpose is to draw votes away from the republicans so that Hillary can win. When the time comes he will step aside.
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Have you considered the conspiracy theory section as a nice place to settle down?
 
Visbek said:
Polls this early are meaningless. In addition to the usual issues with early polls, only a handful of political junkies are paying attention right now.

We've also seen, over and over, how someone (typically an "outsider") who leads early crashes and burns once voters actually start paying attention.
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Keep telling yourself that. We are 10 weeks out from the first primary. At what point are you guys going to stop saying "polls this early are meaningless"? I might agree if the polls were fluctuating...but Trump has had huge leads from the day he entered the race.
 
The problem is that the GOP field is so huge, that people are going to spread support over many different candidates. 72% of Republicans consistently DON'T support Trump. When more candidate drop out (which they should), you'll probably see support better and more realistically concentrated.

The 28% that always support Trump no matter what are probably the only 28% that support him.
 
Visbek said:
FiveThirtyEight / Nate Silver wrote an article, basically suggesting that Trump's lead in the polls is basically a big illusion. Few people are paying attention, including to all the garbage he's spouting.

Dear Media, Stop Freaking Out About Donald Trump’s Polls | FiveThirtyEight
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I wondered if someone would post a link to this article. It is really interesting. I also found this track of political markets to predict who is most likely to win. The current favorite is Rubio.

http://i.imgur.com/tgTSyMN.png
 
imagep said:
I'm having a tough time coming up with one.

Doesn't seem to really matter what he says, no matter how offensive, it just gets him more publicity and doesn't cost him any support. The standard opinion seems to be that as other candidates drop out, their supporters will go to more main stream candidates, and eventually so me mainstream candidate will rise above trump - but that's not happening either, every time someone drops out, Trump seems to get his fair share of their supporters.

And I realize that Trumps negatives are huge, and that lots of republicans say that they will never vote for him, but Trump doesn't have to get to 50% in the polls, he just has to win the most delegates. It looks like there is almost no chance that anyone other than Trump will win 3 out of the first 4 primaries (most likely all four), which will give Trump such a head start and so much competitive inertia that I can't see how he would be stoppable. Even if other candidates start dropping out after those early primaries, even if Trump gets just one fourth of their supporters, no candidate would even be able to match Trumps popularity until we get down to 3 candidates (Trump plus two others), and that's likely going to be so late in the primaries that Trump would have already collected half the delegates or more.

And Trump is pretty much immune to scandals, just because he's never held public office before and republicans don't really care about private sector corruption, they accept that as normal.

Also, there is still some talk about a third party run. I can't imagine why Trump would want to do that when he is already almost guaranteed to win the republican nomination, other than just to screw with republicans.
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Ding ding ding ding ding! I'm confused by his Obama hatred,... I can't imagine this was set up that far in advance, but perhaps.... because he damn sure is doing everything he said the Republicans were doing wrong a decade or so ago. I don't know if he's a "Hillary Plant," but he's surely only doing this to screw with republicans.
 
disneydude said:
Keep telling yourself that. We are 10 weeks out from the first primary. At what point are you guys going to stop saying "polls this early are meaningless"? I might agree if the polls were fluctuating...but Trump has had huge leads from the day he entered the race.
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Here's the thing - people in Iowa and New Hampshire largely do not make up their minds until the final week or days before they actually go vote. The other issue with the "polls this early" is that they are relying on individuals who self-identify as Republican (which is roughly 25% of the national population) and the groups being polled may not necessarily overlap very well with "likely voter" or even "registered voter."
 
disneydude said:
If that's actually true....then that means that there are a lot of really dumb Republicans out there! LOL.
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Actually the "then," has been evident long before Trump which is why he is able to use the "if," so to speak.
 
imagep said:
I'm having a tough time coming up with one.

Doesn't seem to really matter what he says, no matter how offensive, it just gets him more publicity and doesn't cost him any support. The standard opinion seems to be that as other candidates drop out, their supporters will go to more main stream candidates, and eventually so me mainstream candidate will rise above trump - but that's not happening either, every time someone drops out, Trump seems to get his fair share of their supporters.

And I realize that Trumps negatives are huge, and that lots of republicans say that they will never vote for him, but Trump doesn't have to get to 50% in the polls, he just has to win the most delegates. It looks like there is almost no chance that anyone other than Trump will win 3 out of the first 4 primaries (most likely all four), which will give Trump such a head start and so much competitive inertia that I can't see how he would be stoppable. Even if other candidates start dropping out after those early primaries, even if Trump gets just one fourth of their supporters, no candidate would even be able to match Trumps popularity until we get down to 3 candidates (Trump plus two others), and that's likely going to be so late in the primaries that Trump would have already collected half the delegates or more.

And Trump is pretty much immune to scandals, just because he's never held public office before and republicans don't really care about private sector corruption, they accept that as normal.

Also, there is still some talk about a third party run. I can't imagine why Trump would want to do that when he is already almost guaranteed to win the republican nomination, other than just to screw with republicans.
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I just do not see it. The most support that Trump has ever received is 30%. His favorability numbers are absolutely terrible amongst independents and the general population. And the individuals who do support Trump still have to show up the polls. When you combine those elements with the fact that voters wait until the last moment to make a decision in the Primaries, then you can see that there is plenty of time for Trump to fade and/or for those who support Trump to change their mind and get behind another candidate on voting day.
 
imagep said:
I'm having a tough time coming up with one.
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I agree. When looking over the polling to date and considering the trends it appears that Trump has the most to gain by Carson continuing to slide. Trump's gains over the last week seem directly proportional to Carson's losses over the same period. Rubio and Cruz also have slight gains, but it both seems to not be enough to catch Trump and is on the backs of others who have already dropped out with little polling or campaign cash support.

When looking over the spreads going back to August among all Republican hopefuls, it appears that Trump has been out front for so long (in some cases by a +10 or more margin) that it will be difficult for Rubio or Cruz to close the gap setting up an interesting primary season that is getting very close at hand.

No one else in the race (including Bush, Fiorina, Huckabee, and Christie) seems to have enough momentum to get to double digit support before the primary. There is no plausible trend based direction to even support the idea of some change before then.

To top it all off... No matter what comes out of Trump's mouth or how lackluster he performs at the debates he still seems to appeal to just enough Republican supporters to suggest he wins this nod for 2016.
 
Skorpius said:
The problem is that the GOP field is so huge, that people are going to spread support over many different candidates. 72% of Republicans consistently DON'T support Trump. When more candidate drop out (which they should), you'll probably see support better and more realistically concentrated.

The 28% that always support Trump no matter what are probably the only 28% that support him.
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You don't know that. Trump could very well be the second choice for several people once their preferred candidate drops out.
 
disneydude said:
You don't know that. Trump could very well be the second choice for several people once their preferred candidate drops out.
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Obviously, but it's unlikely. Unless people are that stubborn, why would they forgo a second choice candidate when that second choice candidate is currently doing the best in the field?
 
MrT said:
Here's the thing - people in Iowa and New Hampshire largely do not make up their minds until the final week or days before they actually go vote. The other issue with the "polls this early" is that they are relying on individuals who self-identify as Republican (which is roughly 25% of the national population) and the groups being polled may not necessarily overlap very well with "likely voter" or even "registered voter."
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Except that polling is pretty accurate....and its not just one poll is pretty much every poll out there. Its definitely going to be interesting...but I can't think of a modern time where someone who has consistently led in the polls by huge margins month after month has lost.
 
Skorpius said:
Obviously, but it's unlikely. Unless people are that stubborn, why would they forgo a second choice candidate when that second choice candidate is currently doing the best in the field?
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Uh.....because they prefer their first choice.
 
Ancient Herald said:
He is a Hillary plant and has no intention of becoming president. His only purpose is to draw votes away from the republicans so that Hillary can win. When the time comes he will step aside.
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As if a multi-billionaire with a documented history of I'm-better-than-anybody-else would ever be a plant for anyone else.

Your 'plant' fantasy is only a fantasy, and nothing more. Time to wake up and realize that there really are a whole bunch of xenophobes and racists in the GOP who recognize Trump as one of their own.
 
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