donsutherland1

Earlier today, Russia's Interfax-AVN military news agency revealed highlights from Russia's planned defense expenditures for the 2009-11 timeframe. Those expenditures indicate that Russia plans a gradual effort to relocate its Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol, Ukraine to Russia, an expanded effort augment its ability to project strategic naval power, and the accelerated development of a global navigation satellite system.

Some highlights from the report follow:

Global Navigation Satellite System:
Spending on the development of Russia's global navigation satellite system (GLONASS), "including on the elaboration and preparation for the production of navigation equipment for civil users and implementation of navigation systems in transport means and in geodesy by using GLONASS."
2008: $392.1 million
2009: $1.235 billion
2010: $1.098 billion
2011: $757 million

Space-related Military Spending:
2008: $1.121 billion
2009: $2.282 billion
2010: $1.392 billion
2011: $1.698 billion

Strategic Naval Power:
2008: $2.608 billion
2009: $2.835 billion
2010: $3.176 billion
2011: $4.902 billion

Relocation of the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk:
2008: $106 million
2009: $145 million
2010: $145 million
2011: $325 million

Russia's increased expenditures associated with relocating the Black Sea fleet could be seen as a potential conciliatory move with respect to underlying tensions with Ukraine. That Russia plans to increase its expenditures on relocating its Black Sea fleet suggests that Russia may well be seeking to avoid a potential future confrontation with Ukraine or at least creating an alternative to Sevastopol if or when conducting military operations that Ukraine might find controversial.

Note: The dollar figure is based on the most recent exchange rate of 25.502 rubles per U.S. dollar.

tlmorg02

These moves seem to be positive, yet I heard a piece on the radio this week where the Ukranian people are actively seeking entrance into the EU in hopes of gaining protection from Russia. These feelings became stronger after the Georgian-Russian conflict.

donsutherland1

Tlmorg02,

It's possible that a framework could be adopted that allows Ukraine to gain some role in the European Union (EU) without Russian opposition. Such a deal would probably depend on the terms of any new EU-Russia partnership agreement. Ukraine's possible entry into NATO will continue to be strongly opposed by Russia and probably blocked by several European members of NATO, as well.