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Archives Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM; Originally Posted by donsutherland1 Aside from reversing Argentina's invasion of the Falkland Islands That conflict failed ‘just-war criteria’. ...

 
 
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Old 04-28-08, 12:47 PM   #71 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
Aside from reversing Argentina's invasion of the Falkland Islands
That conflict failed ‘just-war criteria’. If anything, it was an example of the ineptness of the Tory regime. The invasion was not a surprise. We’d already been informed of Argentinean tendency towards hostility in the 1970s where they fired on a British ship. Indeed, the Joint Intelligence Committee noted in 1977, 1979 and 1981 that ”as long as [Argentina] calculated that the British Government were prepared to negotiate seriously on sovereignty, it was unlikely to resort to force. If negotiations broke down, or if Argentina concluded from them that there was no prospect of real progress towards a negotiated transfer of sovereignty, there would be a high risk of its then resorting to more forceful measures, including direct military action”. The British government ensured that military action via a dual policy of Royal Navy cuts and a lack of interest in the Falklands. We effectively gave a green light to Argentina to take the Falklands by removing HMS Endurance. Our very own intelligence reported that the Argentines had construed this as a 'deliberate political gesture'. The Conservatives, in their uselessness, failed to respond. Lord Carrington also rather unfairly fell on his sword. Attempts to form a coherent Falklands policy was thwarted by Thatcher (e.g. "The Prime Minister decided, however, that discussion of the Falkland Islands by the Defence Committee should be postponed until after the Rhodesian issue had been settled"). He also informed the PM of the prospects of a confrontation, noting that “supplying and defending the Islands would be both difficult and costly”.

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…and Britain's reliable and important contributions within the framework of NATO, Prime Minister Thatcher also played an important behind-the-scenes role in paving the way for the peaceful conclusion of the long-running Cold War.
Britain’s NATO contribution would have maintained constant, given the ‘foreign policy’ consensus characterised by our political system

There’s no “gosh” moment with the material you offer. How about answering my other question? Why do you think Thatcher’s PMship was characterised by rapid rise in poverty intensity?
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Old 04-28-08, 01:17 PM   #72 (permalink)
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Thread Starter Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Scucca View Post
That conflict failed ‘just-war criteria’.
We could not disagree more strongly on that matter. Argentina's act of naked aggression in invading the Falkland Islands constituted just cause and Argentina's implacability when it came to withdrawing prior to Britain's use of force made it necessary for military action to be undertaken.

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Why do you think Thatcher’s PMship was characterised by rapid rise in poverty intensity?
Poverty is a complex socio-economic phenomenon. The interactions between various factors, including the possible decline in manufacturing that began prior to Prime Minister Thatcher's tenure and inability of the economy to fully accommodate the employment losses, may have contributed. If the incidence of poverty were largely or wholly a consequence of political choices, policymakers could simply make poverty disappear. That is not the case.

Finally, if one excludes transfer payments to find the underlying incidence of poverty, Britain currently does not fare worse than a number of major western European states such as France or Germany.


Note: The graph was taken from the New Policy Institute's website: Poverty indicators - The Poverty Site

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Old 04-28-08, 02:11 PM   #73 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
We could not disagree more strongly on that matter. Argentina's act of naked aggression in invading the Falkland Islands constituted just cause and Argentina's implacability when it came to withdrawing prior to Britain's use of force made it necessary for military action to be undertaken.
Nope! We'd been negotiating for years and had admitted sovereignty was under question. This is not surprising, given we seized the islands illegally. Also, as described by our own people, the war only occurred after a series of errors by Thatcher and co.

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Poverty is a complex socio-economic phenomenon.
Understanding the increase in poverty intensity isn't difficult: we have a massive increase in unemployment and also an increase in low wage labour. Its just inconsistent with any notion of Tory success.

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Finally, if one excludes transfer payments to find the underlying incidence of poverty, Britain currently does not fare worse than a number of major western European states such as France or Germany.
Your data comparison was far from effective. First, you should be referring to time series analysis of the poverty in the UK (and noting the substantial increase in poverty intensity over the Tory mismanagement). Second, if you are to make international comparison, you should be referring to internationally comparable data such as the Luxembourg Income Study. For example, try Table 2 of Smeeding's paper
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Old 04-28-08, 02:30 PM   #74 (permalink)
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Thread Starter Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by Scucca View Post
Nope!
I respect your opinion on the matter, but strongly disagree.

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Understanding the increase in poverty intensity isn't difficult: we have a massive increase in unemployment and also an increase in low wage labour. Its just inconsistent with any notion of Tory success.
The overall success for failures of a government are defined by much more than poverty statistics. Moreover, the cause(s) of the employment situation predated the Thatcher government.

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Your data comparison was far from effective.
The data offered a quick and reasonable snapshot in time for the present situation. Moreover, as the graph was constructed directly from the EU-SILC, the European Union's official microdata on income, poverty, social exclusion and living conditions, I have reasonable confidence in the data.

My only point was that despite the difficult economic transition associated with the secular decline in the manufacturing sector, Britain is not virtually alone in having a far worse poverty situation today than some of Europe's other leading nations. Needless to say, I would hope that the current government does what it can reasonably accomplish to reduce poverty.
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Old 04-28-08, 02:54 PM   #75 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
I respect your opinion on the matter, but strongly disagree.
I've gone further than just rely on opinion. I will admit that, despite terra nullius and uti possidetis favouring the Argentine case, the use of international law can be used in favour of both sides. However, that the Argentines reacted after ineptness by the Thatcher regime is just- if you believe our own security forces- a matter of fact.

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The overall success for failures of a government are defined by much more than poverty statistics. Moreover, the cause(s) of the employment situation predated the Thatcher government.
The quadrupling of unemployment cannot be blamed on anything but the monetarist folly. The increased focus on low wage labour was also a deliberate government policy. I've already referred to the methods employed to increase the tendency of low wage labour, including the elimination of the wages councils (a very foolish policy I might add!) and the use of family credit as a form of corporate welfare.

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The data offered a quick and reasonable snapshot in time for the present situation.
I've told you why the data was inappropriate. You've given no sense of time trends in poverty rates and/or poverty intensity rates. You also should be referring to the available international comparable data, as favoured by any academic analysis into cross-country differences. Smeeding kindly demonstrated that, using a constant poverty threshold, the UK does particularly badly.

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Needless to say, I would hope that the current government does what it can reasonably accomplish to reduce poverty.
The current regime has had some marginal success in reducing child poverty. But that is a 'so what?' moment. What is clear is that the Tory regime had no success in poverty alleviation. It is clear as the Tories increased our poverty problems.
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Old 04-28-08, 03:13 PM   #76 (permalink)
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Thread Starter Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by Scucca View Post
The quadrupling of unemployment cannot be blamed on anything but the monetarist folly.
Britain faced a grave inflation problem. It made sense for the Bank of England to raise interest rates to such levels as were required to break the back of inflation. The Bank of England succeeded in curbing inflation. Given that inflation is harmful to long-run economic growth, the central bank deserves credit for taking the unpopular but courageous decision to curb inflation.
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Old 04-28-08, 03:20 PM   #77 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
Britain faced a grave inflation problem. It made sense for the Bank of England to raise interest rates to such levels as were required to break the back of inflation.
Remember that we did not have an independent central bank. The idea that, to control inflation, unemployment had to be quadrupled just does not fly! Its also an amusing idea, given the government's use of regressive taxation (harming the poor) increased the inflation rate.
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Old 04-28-08, 03:34 PM   #78 (permalink)
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Thread Starter Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by Scucca View Post
The idea that, to control inflation, unemployment had to be quadrupled just does not fly!
Unfortunately, in the short-term, there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. U.S. Federal Reserve Governor and Columbia University Professor Frederic Mishkin discussed the benefits of low inflation and also the Phillips Curve ramification of monetary policy back in February.

Some excerpts follow:

Both economic theory and empirical evidence indicate that the stabilization of inflation promotes stronger economic activity in the long run. Two principles underlie that conclusion. The first principle is that low inflation is beneficial for economic welfare. Rates of inflation significantly above the low levels of recent years can have serious adverse effects on economic efficiency and hence on output in the long run. The distortions from a moderate to high level of long-run inflation are many. High inflation can cause confusion among households and firms, thereby distorting savings and investment decisions...

The second principle is the lack of a long-run tradeoff between unemployment and the inflation rate. Rather, the long-run Phillips curve is vertical, implying that the economy gravitates to some natural rate of unemployment in the long run no matter what the rate of inflation is...

Although there is no long-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation, in the short run, expansionary monetary policy that raises inflation can lower unemployment and raise employment. That is, the short-run Phillips curve is not vertical.


Given the magnitude of inflation and what was at stake economically, I believe the Bank of England's tough approach was necessary even considering Phillips Curve implications. Britain was not experiencing a mere mild episode of inflation. It was in the grips of a persistent and substantial inflationary outbreak.
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Old 04-28-08, 03:49 PM   #79 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
Unfortunately, in the short-term, there is a trade-off between inflation and unemployment. U.S. Federal Reserve Governor and Columbia University Professor Frederic Mishkin discussed the benefits of low inflation and also the Phillips Curve ramification of monetary policy back in February.
I know all the macro stuff about the Phillips Curve, examples including the short term curve generated by money illusion to the irrelevance of the short and long run due to the application of rational expectations.

You're not going to be able to use any of it to suggest that '4 million' plus unemployment is consistent with some cunning attempt to eliminate inflation. We simply have the diseased consequences of poorly thought out monetarism (which is dead except for the most simplistic Econ 101 courses)
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Old 04-29-08, 07:54 AM   #80 (permalink)
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Thread Starter Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by Scucca View Post
You're not going to be able to use any of it to suggest that '4 million' plus unemployment is consistent with some cunning attempt to eliminate inflation. We simply have the diseased consequences of poorly thought out monetarism (which is dead except for the most simplistic Econ 101 courses)
It was not the Bank of England's fault that Britain was in the midst of a then decade-long secular move away from manufacturing, that the manufacturing industry had not regained its pre-1973-75 recession peak, and that the industry had been shedding jobs since the 1960s. It was not the Bank of England's fault that chronic underinvestment, in part due to tax disincentives, had eroded Britain's economic competitiveness. It was not the Bank of England's fault that the national government had taken over a range of enterprises and jobs and companies that might otherwise had disappeared were being propped up by federal aid. Britain's economy was in a weakened state when it became necessary for the Bank of England to wage its decisive fight against roaring inflation. That weakened condition, not solely or largely the Bank's monetary policy, led to the economic pain that coincided with the fight against inflation.

To its credit, the Bank did not shrink from its objective. Instead, it persevered and ultimately overcame Britain's inflation problem. In my opinion, its resolute and successful effort against high inflation is one of its brighter moments. Hopefully, should Britain ever again face such an inflationary situation--and I very much hope it will not--the Bank of England will again respond forcefully and courageously as it did then to curb inflation.

Finally, Monetarism has evolved quite a bit. It is not dead, at least not in the sense of Marxism that has been widely abandoned (except in a few unfortunate, isolated, and misery-strewn pockets e.g., North Korea) and truly relegated to the texts and archives.
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