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Archives Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM; Originally Posted by Scucca You forgot to mention the resulting recession they managed to inflame. Monetarism (fortunately a dodo of ...

 
 
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Old 04-23-08, 12:58 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Thread Starter Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by Scucca View Post
You forgot to mention the resulting recession they managed to inflame. Monetarism (fortunately a dodo of an ideology now) ensured a collapse so extreme that it was arguably more extreme that our version of the Great Depression
I mentioned the recession (actually, in the case of the U.S. there were twin recessions that followed in close proximity) in noting:

The Bank of England, much like the U.S. Federal Reserve, entered a situation in which they had to, as Meltzer put it, "at last respond to the public's complaints about inflation." As a result, both Britain and the U.S. experienced a significant recession.

As for monetary policy, it certainly has evolved since the late 1970s and early 1980s. Aside from Milton Friedman's proposition that inflation is a monetary phenomenon, one has witnessed the development of the Taylor Rule, among other changes to help guide central bankers.

The situations to which central banks must respond can lead to difficult tradeoffs in which there are no easy choices. Although I do not have access to the transcripts of the Bank of England's monetary policy deliberations, one can find the reality of tradeoffs, particularly during the period in question, in the U.S. Federal Reserve's transcripts.

For example, during the April 22, 1980 meeting of its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which establishes monetary policy, the Federal Reserve found itself confronted by visible evidence of a slowing economy and rising inflation. Then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker's commentary highlighted the dilemma. Relevant exerpts follow:

People believe what they want to believe. If they saw the inflation rate coming down, they would be more persuaded... The big change we've had--though we've had a lot of changes since the last meeting--is that we certainly have some evidence of an economic decline that we didn't have before... I do think that in all probability we re going to have a recession...

But when attitudes fluctuate as rapidly as they have, it's a little premature to say attitudes couldn't relapse the other way. And looking at a longer-term perspective, there's no question in my mind that in considerable part inflation is what got us into this dilemma...

I don't think we're in a situation where there's any coure of action that is risk-free or even in some sense a "winning" course of action because there's a lot to be lost by a resurgence in inflationary expectations and there's a lot to be lost by accelerating the recession; and I'm not sure that there's any real room between those two contingencies... All I'm saying is that I don't think there's any perfect answer or any right answer that goes between them.


Practice is much messier and far more uncertain than theory. As Paul Volcker attributed the evolving economic situation "in considerable part" to inflation, the Fed chose to maintain its focus on bringing down the inflation rate even as the economy softened. During the 1970s, the Fed made the other choice and in the process laid the foundation for the major stagflation of the late 1970s and early 1980s.

Given the economic environment, I have little doubt that the Bank of England faced a similar dilemma. Given the experience of the 1970s in which a 'fight the recession now, take on inflation later' approach failed to curb inflation, it is not surprising that the Bank of England also placed its emphasis on reducing inflation.

Finally, a quick note on supply-side policies: as such policies seek to push the supply curve to the right, they provide a disinflationary impact; Policies aimed at stimulating demand can have an inflationary impact as they push the demand curve to the right.
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Old 04-23-08, 01:12 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
I mentioned the recession
I'm not convinced you appreciate its severity. We're one of the few countries that have been dominated by negative deindustrialisation. That result is the direct consequence of right wing economic policy, rather than the usual tales of union oblivion.

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As for monetary policy, it certainly has evolved since the late 1970s and early 1980s.
Lets not underplay it: monetarism is dead.

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Although I do not have access to the transcripts of the Bank of England's monetary policy deliberations
I'm assuming you're aware it wasn't independent. And, as mentioned, the Bank was largely impotent because of government policy.

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Given the experience of the 1970s in which a 'fight the recession now, take on inflation later' approach failed to curb inflation, it is not surprising that the Bank of England also placed its emphasis on reducing inflation.
The policies introduced were inspired by a warped understanding of free market economics, not some concerted attempt to control inflation. We got a mishmash of policies, such as the move towards indirect taxation (which increased inflation) as part of some supply-side miracle "hope". Together they destroyed the industrial base.
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Old 04-23-08, 03:28 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by Scucca View Post
The miners were attacked as part of a revenge mission,...
Nonsense and marxist propaganda.

The pits were closed and the miners let go because they economically inefficient, to you one of your favorite words. The militancy of the union worked against them as it usually does but the British coal industry like virtually all British industry then and much of it now was overstaffed, underproductive, undercapitalized, not able to compete with world class coal mining operations and not worth salvaging.
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Old 04-23-08, 03:34 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by aegyptos View Post
Nonsense and marxist propaganda.
Can't you even try to keep to serious comment?

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The pits were closed and the miners let go because they economically inefficient, to you one of your favorite words.
You don't know our history. The miners were hated for their part in the downfall of Tory regime. That profitable mines were closed is just a factual comment.

You clearly know nothing about this subject, so I'd appreciate if you trolled elsewhere. Cheers!
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Old 04-23-08, 05:07 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by Scucca View Post
The miners were hated for their part in the downfall of Tory regime.
Just envy on the part of Scargill and his mob of cretins.
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Old 04-23-08, 05:27 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by aegyptos View Post
Just envy on the part of Scargill and his mob of cretins.
Another tosh comment!

That Tory policy kicked economics in the guts is easily shown. For example, more productive Yorkshire mine were chosen for closure. The notion that economic performance indicator was behind it all was clear bobbins. We also shouldn't forget that, following privatisation, a number of mines re-opened.
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Old 04-23-08, 05:54 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by Scucca View Post
Can't you even try to keep to serious comment?


You don't know our history. The miners were hated for their part in the downfall of Tory regime. That profitable mines were closed is just a factual comment.

You clearly know nothing about this subject, so I'd appreciate if you trolled elsewhere. Cheers!
How where they profitable? they striked at the drop of a hat then sued when they got ill.
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Old 04-23-08, 05:59 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by mikhail View Post
How where they profitable?
Due to productivity dear chap. Thatcher's crime was to allow personal hatred to out-trump long run energy policy.

Economics is not for right wingers
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Old 04-23-08, 06:37 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Thread Starter Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by mikhail View Post
How where they profitable?
In the fiscal year ended March 31, 1984 (FY 1983) in which the coal miners strike was launched by Arthur Scargill, the mines lost $1.164 billion (about $873 million in losses were incurred prior to the coal strike).

Source: Source: "British Coal Industry Announces Huge Loss," The New York Times, July 27, 1984.

The above loss was dramatically larger than the $180 million loss in FY 1982 and $102 million loss in FY 1981 despite closures of unprofitable pits.

Source of FY 1981 and FY 1982 losses: Barnaby J. Federlondon, "Mrs. Thatcher Tests The Miners," The New York Times, August 28, 1983.

All said, the coal mines were highly unprofitable. Worse, despite the closure of the worst-performing pits, the sea of red ink was swelling. Given the magnitude of the losses and changes in the world coal production industry, Britain was faced with the bleak position of a potentially permanent lack of competitiveness in coal mining, barring the closure of an overwhelming majority of its pits that had arguably become economically unsalvageable. So long as huge subsidies were flowing to the coal industry (more than £1 billion per year according to Margaret Thatcher's memoirs), Britain was imperiling its future by directing scarce resources to an industry that was moribund, as there were sizable opportunity costs incurred from the diversion of these resources from more productive, growth-oriented industries.

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Old 04-23-08, 06:57 PM   #30 (permalink)
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Re: Survey: Thatcher Ranks as Top Post-WW II British PM

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Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
All said, the coal mines were highly unprofitable. Worse, despite the closure of the worst-performing pits
This is misinformation. For a start it is bogus to suggest that the worst performing pits were closed. Closure was skewed towards, for example, Yorkshire pit. It is also factual to refer to the re-opening of closed pit after privatisation.

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Britain was faced with the bleak position of a potentially permanent lack of competitiveness in coal mining, barring the closure of an overwhelming majority of its pits that had become economically unsalvageable.
More misinformation. Britain was faced with the need to design a long run energy policy. She failed. That failure reflected political perversion, rather than economic need. That the industry was in long run decline is not disputed. That the industry was crippled because of political fancy is just bleedin obvious
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