UK Budget Nov 2016 - too pessimistic?

Infinite Chaos · Nov 23, 2016

Robert Peston said:
According to the cursed experts at the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the government's debt is set to rise from 84% of GDP or national income last year to over 90% at the end of March 2018. Link.

Robert Peston said:
So here's what those ideological despisers of experts - the Goves, Johnsons and Rees-Moggs - had better be correct about: that Brexit will liberate the animal spirits of British businesses and ultimately lead to an acceleration of growth.

More project fear or is it this time, the true picture of what we face in the UK? Rees Mogg and Redmond both accuse the Govt and the office for Budget Responsibility of setting a pessimistic tone and setting our sights too low but I think there is no disguising that it will be very hard decade to come.

Chagos · Nov 23, 2016

Infinite Chaos said:
More project fear or is it this time, the true picture of what we face in the UK? Rees Mogg and Redmond both accuse the Govt and the office for Budget Responsibility of setting a pessimistic tone and setting our sights too low but I think there is no disguising that it will be very hard decade to come.

Pessimistic forecasts hold the advantage (for the forecaster(s) that if things don't go just that badly, everybody will be sufficiently happy to forget "the fault".

The other way around nobody forgets anything and rope becomes scarce in an abundance of lampposts.

That said, I hold the forecast to be pretty realistic. Leave the big clubs and you have to eat in cheap dumps.

Figuratively speaking, of course.

Incidentally something that (depending on where the US president-elect will jump with his feet rather than the mouth) the US will find out as well.

Not so much as in club membership but in assuming that protectionism in this day and age will provide the solutions to all woes.

joG · Nov 23, 2016

Infinite Chaos said:
More project fear or is it this time, the true picture of what we face in the UK? Rees Mogg and Redmond both accuse the Govt and the office for Budget Responsibility of setting a pessimistic tone and setting our sights too low but I think there is no disguising that it will be very hard decade to come.

The economy should be somewhat slower until the path forward is clearer. We just don't know, how Brexit is going to go. Uncertainty is risk. I am actually surprised the markets are not weaker all things considered.

Fishking · Nov 23, 2016

Chagos said:
Pessimistic forecasts hold the advantage (for the forecaster(s) that if things don't go just that badly, everybody will be sufficiently happy to forget "the fault".

The other way around nobody forgets anything and rope becomes scarce in an abundance of lampposts.

That said, I hold the forecast to be pretty realistic. Leave the big clubs and you have to eat in cheap dumps.

Figuratively speaking, of course.

Incidentally something that (depending on where the US president-elect will jump with his feet rather than the mouth) the US will find out as well.

Not so much as in club membership but in assuming that protectionism in this day and age will provide the solutions to all woes.

I don't think Trump has had much of an issue with trade with European countries and such, as we have pretty comparable standards as far as wages, workers' rights, environmental regulations, ect.

Chagos · Nov 23, 2016

Fishking said:
I don't think Trump has had much of an issue with trade with European countries and such, as we have pretty comparable standards as far as wages, workers' rights, environmental regulations, ect.

Yeah, my reference to where "the feet will jump"" actually contains the hint that it's early days as yet.

Many in Europe look(ed) with trepidation at TTIP as well so if it's not going to be that one, I'm pretty sure it'll be something else.

Even where I'd disagree that there's much of a similarity in two of the issues you name, those being worker's rights and environmental standards. The latter something that by all accounts are supposed to go out of the window in US.

Infinite Chaos · Nov 24, 2016

Chagos said:
~ That said, I hold the forecast to be pretty realistic. Leave the big clubs and you have to eat in cheap dumps ~

Sadly, I think so too. That national deficit is worryingly huge and shows little sign of reducing meaningfully. I have stated previously in other threads my support for the actions of Osborne to reduce the deficit and now all that sacrifice has gone to waste. Now, we will continue to face sacrifice but with less sign of worthiness.

Chagos said:
~ depending on where the US president-elect will jump with his feet rather than the mouth) the US will find out as well ~

He's rowed back on a lot of campaign rhetoric, my feeling when he has all the figures in front of him is that he will have to rethink a lot more.

Hawkeye10 · Nov 24, 2016

Infinite Chaos said:
More project fear or is it this time, the true picture of what we face in the UK? Rees Mogg and Redmond both accuse the Govt and the office for Budget Responsibility of setting a pessimistic tone and setting our sights too low but I think there is no disguising that it will be very hard decade to come.

Nobody knows how BREXIT will go, so these kinds of numbers are not worth spit.

PeteEU · Nov 24, 2016

Infinite Chaos said:
More project fear or is it this time, the true picture of what we face in the UK? Rees Mogg and Redmond both accuse the Govt and the office for Budget Responsibility of setting a pessimistic tone and setting our sights too low but I think there is no disguising that it will be very hard decade to come.

Considering that the previous guy was always wayyyyy too optimistic then you have to ask yourself... is this more of the same, and is the reality much much worse?

I am watching Hammond atm, and he said " The UK can sustain a high amount of debt because we have high credibility because we have kept our deficit down"... I mean what? Considering the chaos of Brexit, that credibility is certainly under threat...... and if that is all it takes, then hmmm.

PeteEU · Nov 24, 2016

Hawkeye10 said:
Nobody knows how BREXIT will go, so these kinds of numbers are not worth spit.

Hey now.. spit can be very useful. No reason to downplay the role and worth of spit..

Infinite Chaos · Nov 24, 2016

PeteEU said:
Considering that the previous guy was always wayyyyy too optimistic then you have to ask yourself...

No, the figures were reasonably correct, we were going to significantly reduce the deficit. Remember it was a deficit the Conservatives inherited rather than created.

PeteEU said:
~ is this more of the same

No.

PeteEU said:
~ and is the reality much much worse?

I am watching Hammond atm, and he said " The UK can sustain a high amount of debt because we have high credibility because we have kept our deficit down"... I mean what? Considering the chaos of Brexit, that credibility is certainly under threat...... and if that is all it takes, then hmmm.

Hammond had to say something though I would rather a more truthful picture was given. At least it's not the naïve optimism of Redwood that Europe is going to come begging to have access to our market. For one, our collapsing pound will mean we will pay more for less EU goods.

PeteEU · Nov 25, 2016

Infinite Chaos said:
No, the figures were reasonably correct, we were going to significantly reduce the deficit.

The tories have been saying that for a decade now. Still has not really happened.

Remember it was a deficit the Conservatives inherited rather than created.

Still using that excuse a decade after taking power? 10 years... come on.

Hammond had to say something though I would rather a more truthful picture was given.

Never said it was not more truthful. All I have tried to state, is that based on previous autumn statements, if the trend was to continue... then the economy is in reality in much much worse shape than Hammond is presenting. Not one autumn statement has gotten it even remotely right.. hence my pessimism.

At least it's not the naïve optimism of Redwood that Europe is going to come begging to have access to our market. For one, our collapsing pound will mean we will pay more for less EU goods.

I dont disagree, but again as I stated above. There use to be naive optimism, that totally missed the mark. Now if we go by the theory that the autumn state will always miss the mark, then his pessimism (as you call it) might actually be more naive optimism and the reality is in fact much worse.

Eanto · Nov 25, 2016

10 years in power? is it 2020 already, I must have fallen asleep. The first 5 were neutered by the coalition anyway.

PeteEU · Nov 25, 2016

Eanto said:
10 years in power? is it 2020 already, I must have fallen asleep. The first 5 were neutered by the coalition anyway.

More excuses.

Eanto · Nov 25, 2016

PeteEU said:
More excuses.

More factual actually

Infinite Chaos · Nov 25, 2016

PeteEU said:
The tories have been saying that for a decade now. Still has not really happened.

Still using that excuse a decade after taking power? 10 years... come on.

UK National Deficit - Current, Recent, Historical Charts Tables

OK, show me on the graph that the figures weren't coming down. As for 10 years, the deficit was around 40% prior to 2008 so 8 years to reduce it back down is pretty good and it was going towards surplus around 2020.

UK deficit at lowest in seven years as tax receipts grow - Telegraph

Not any more because of Brexit.

PeteEU · Nov 25, 2016

Infinite Chaos said:
UK National Deficit - Current, Recent, Historical Charts Tables

OK, show me on the graph that the figures weren't coming down. As for 10 years, the deficit was around 40% prior to 2008 so 8 years to reduce it back down is pretty good and it was going towards surplus around 2020.

UK deficit at lowest in seven years as tax receipts grow - Telegraph

Not any more because of Brexit.

And Osbourne stated that the budget would be in surplus in 2017... back when he took power. Ups!

Lafayette · Nov 25, 2016

Chagos said:
Pessimistic forecasts hold the advantage (for the forecaster(s) that if things don't go just that badly, everybody will be sufficiently happy to forget "the fault".

Not so much as in club membership but in assuming that protectionism in this day and age will provide the solutions to all woes.

Pessimistic forecasts for Britain are the direct result of the Brexit vote.

Why should anyone expect any other consequence is beyond comprehension. The UK has willingly cut its trade umbilical chord with the its principle market-economy, the EU - a market that is (without Britain) still 540M and 100M larger than the US. And now the Brits expects to "temporize" that bit of collective idiocy by mitigating the consequences with "special conditions".

That just aint gonna happin ... and the EU is obliged to make the UK a prime example of the consequences, should other countries (presently in the hands of some very questionable politicians*) wish to think similarly.

There is only one economic boat, and the bigger the better especially in economic-storms. Not just in good times, but in bad as well.

The smaller-minded Brits in the boonies of England deserve a lesson, and it will be equally beneficial to the others in the EU with similar tendencies*. Nothing will show the collective small-mindedness of the Brexit Vote for what it is like the Scots leaving the UK for the EU ...

*Poland and Hungary come to mind.

Lafayette · Nov 26, 2016

PeteEU said:
Not one autumn statement has gotten it even remotely right.. hence my pessimism.

And after Brexit, any estimate of the budget can only be approximate.

You Brits are in for a bigger surprise than you think. The EU will recover, slowly, but still faster than Britain.

And the Scots, if they have any good sense, will get the hell out (and over into the EU) whilst the getting is good.

Hang Farage from a lamp-pole for starters ...

UK Budget Nov 2016 - too pessimistic?

Infinite Chaos

Chagos

joG

Fishking

Chagos

Infinite Chaos

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

PeteEU

PeteEU

Infinite Chaos

PeteEU

Eanto

New member

PeteEU

Eanto

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Infinite Chaos

PeteEU

Lafayette

Lafayette