Who will be the next German Chancellor?

The next general election in Germany will be in September 2017. And slowly, the first rumors occur about who the candidates will be.


That is what the situation looks like this at the moment:



Chancellor Angela Merkel (center-right CDU) will most likely be the candidate for the Christian Democrats (CDU) once again, running for a 4th term.

Merkel might want to walk in the footsteps of her mentor, former Chancellor Helmut Kohl (CDU), who governed four terms, from 1982-1998. And (West-)Germany's great "founding father", Konrad Adenauer (CDU), governed 3.5 terms, from 1949-1963. So four-term chancellorships have a tradition for "great" CDU Chancellors.

Merkel is much more under attack, has become a much more controversial politician since her opening the borders for refugees in autumn 2015. Many more right-leaning CDU members and supporters strongly dislike her, because in the past decade, she moved the formerly conservative party deep into the center. The refugee policy was just the last nail on the coffin for them.

But still, Merkel is the most promising choice for the CDU. Mostly, because there are no strong alternative options -- Merkel has failed to build up a successor so far, her ministers are either too inexperienced, or stumbled over scandals. The only minister who is both strong and experienced, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble, is 75 years old already, and considered an emergency candidate at best.

And Merkel's approval rate, though much lower than it was a couple of years ago, is still pretty good (above 50%). Chances are that without her, the CDU would rather lose, than win a couple of percent points.



The situation for the other major party, the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), is more difficult.


SPD chairman Sigmar Gabriel, despite all efforts, is not very popular. He became chairman after the SPD's worst defeat since 1932, after the 2009 election, and managed to get the SPD back on its feet -- but on low level. Thanks to Gabriel, the SPD became Merkel's junior partner in the government after the 2013 election, and Gabriel became Vice Chancellor and Minister for Economy, but his popularity remained low and the party kept stagnating on a low level.

If the people could elect the Chancellor directly, only 19% say they'd vote for Gabriel, compared to 46% who prefer Merkel.

SPD supporters don't trust Gabriel, who is considered opportunistic -- one day, he comes up with a leftist idea to appease the party base (like his plan for a minimum wage), but the next day, he'll lick the boots of big business interests (like supporting CETA and TTIP). People feel he doesn't have real convictions, let alone a vision.

Usually, Gabriel -- SPD chairman and Vice Chancellor -- would be the natural choice as candidate for Chancellor. But the party is reluctant supporting him, and Gabriel knows it.

So these days, there are rumors Gabriel might voluntarily give up his ambitions as candidate for Chancellor, and lets someone else run instead.

One of the names you hear in this context is Martin Schulz (SPD):



Martin Schulz has not been too deply involved in Berlin politics so far, as he made carreer on the European level: Member of the EU parliament since 1994, he was floor leader of the Socialists & Democrats faction in the EU parliament from 2004-12, and has been President of the EU Parliament since 2012.

In times when the EU is in its deepest crisis, under attack by nationalists in the member states and struggling with economic troubles and Brexit, Schulz is a clearly pro-European candidate with a vision: Earlier this year, he presented a proposal for a reform of the EU. He's also an outspoken opponent of the newly rising right-wing populism. He made some headlines when he angrily threw a far-right member of parliament out of the hall, after that MP had called gypsies "animals".

The bad flipside of this strong pro-European profile, is that not much is known about his stances on domestic policies so far. But he's considered a member of the pragmatic wing of the party.


A recent poll shows he's much more popular than Gabriel, but still less popular than Merkel: In direct comparson, 29% would vote for Schulz, while 46% would vote for Merkel. But that might change if he indeed became nominated: Politicians on EU level are generally less well known to the broad public than national politicians.

In recent polls, the center-right block of Merkel's CDU and libertarian FDP combined reach 38%-40% of the votes, while a left block of SPD, Green Party and socialist Left Party reaches 43%-45%.

But because the right-wing populist AFD is polled at 12%-14%, neither block would find a majority in the parliament at the moment (a block needs more votes than all other parties combined, to win a majority).

If the election ended in such a stalemate -- AFD blocking both a right-wing and left-wing majority --, the only remaining option would most likely be another "great coalition" of the two major parties from either side (just like the current government). And in such a situation, Merkel would have an advantage, because her CDU is currently clearly stronger than the center-left SPD and thus would get the role of senior partner.

not much of selection, just like the u.s.

Master PO said:

not much of selection, just like the u.s.

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What makes it more tricky, though, is the multi-party system.

The people doesn't elect the Chancellor directly, but the parliament does ... and the parliament is elected via proportional representation. Currently, it looks like six parties will enter.

So in the end, coalition arithmetics may be more decisive than who gets the most votes.

At least votes for third, fourth, fifth ... parties are not wasted.

Master PO said:

not much of selection, just like the u.s.

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Plenty of selection as you vote for a party platform and not for the person leading the party.. at least in theory. Of course the leader of the party in question will be the chancellor candidate for said party, so who it is is kinda important, there is no "Merkel" plan for the economy, there is a CDU plan for the economy and Merkel will be the one in charge of implementing that plan.

I think personally Merkel will survive, as there is a year to go before the elections. The alternatives are not better, and with the new Nazi party coming up, the threat to the German state and people is very real.

My choice.

truthatallcost said:

My choice.

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Doesn't surprise me. Guess you're a Trump fan, too.

Well, I'm glad that for the time being, this woman or any other AFD candidate doesn't have the slightest chance to become Chancellor. We don't need a party that openly embraces people who believe in "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion" or call Holocaust deniers "political dissidents".

German guy said:

Doesn't surprise me. Guess you're a Trump fan, too.

Well, I'm glad that for the time being, this woman or any other AFD candidate doesn't have the slightest chance to become Chancellor. We don't need a party that openly embraces people who believe in "The Protocols of the Elders of Zion" or call Holocaust deniers "political dissidents".

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You must admit that she is more beautiful to look at than Schulz and Gabriel :2razz:

Does SPD really stand any legitimate chance of victory? Germans must know that an SPD chancellor would be far more generous to migrants than even Mama Merkel has been.
I can't see most Germans being thrilled by the prospect of another term for Mama Merkel either. Her approval rating has increased recently in the media (why??), but responsibility for the Migrant Crisis, and the inevitable future fallout of 700k unemployed foreigners remains on her shoulders.

truthatallcost said:

You must admit that she is more beautiful to look at than Schulz and Gabriel :2razz:

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Okay, I give you that.

Unlike Trump, she's at least much nicer to look at.

Does SPD really stand any legitimate chance of victory? Germans must know that an SPD chancellor would be far more generous to migrants than even Mama Merkel has been.
I can't see most Germans being thrilled by the prospect of another term for Mama Merkel either. Her approval rating has increased recently in the media (why??), but responsibility for the Migrant Crisis, and the inevitable future fallout of 700k unemployed foreigners remains on her shoulders.

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Well, due to proportional representation, "victory" is relative.

You are right insofar that I don't think either of these candidates has the chance of winning more than 50% for his or her party. But they don't have to. They just have to find a sufficient amount of coalition partners from between the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th parties, for that this coalition of parties together reaches 50% of the seats.

Merkel's CDU reached 41.5% of the votes in 2013, and now they're down to 32%-34% in polls. But that's enough to continue governing with the SPD, for example -- the SPD gets 22%-23%, et voilà, there you go.

And if the SPD indeed manages to get the socialist Left Party on board next to the Greens -- they have a chance: SPD at 22%-23%, Greens at 12%, Left Party at 10%. That's 45% combined, not too far away from a majority.


And I think you're wrong about the refugee policy in Germany. True, it's very controversial. But a majority of the population generally supports it. Those who strongly oppose it are a -- very loud -- minority. A considerable minority, but still a minority. Granted, this may be a crucial minority, as it may just be the demographic that costs Merkel reelection. But there are even more people who keep voting for Merkel's CDU just because of her, than there are people who turned away from her because of her refugee policies.

German guy said:

Okay, I give you that.

Unlike Trump, she's at least much nicer to look at.



Well, due to proportional representation, "victory" is relative.

You are right insofar that I don't think either of these candidates has the chance of winning more than 50% for his or her party. But they don't have to. They just have to find a sufficient amount of coalition partners from between the 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th parties, for that this coalition of parties together reaches 50% of the seats.

Merkel's CDU reached 41.5% of the votes in 2013, and now they're down to 32%-34% in polls. But that's enough to continue governing with the SPD, for example -- the SPD gets 22%-23%, et voilà, there you go.

And if the SPD indeed manages to get the socialist Left Party on board next to the Greens -- they have a chance: SPD at 22%-23%, Greens at 12%, Left Party at 10%. That's 45% combined, not too far away from a majority.


And I think you're wrong about the refugee policy in Germany. True, it's very controversial. But a majority of the population generally supports it. Those who strongly oppose it are a -- very loud -- minority. A considerable minority, but still a minority. Granted, this may be a crucial minority, as it may just be the demographic that costs Merkel reelection. But there are even more people who keep voting for Merkel's CDU just because of her, than there are people who turned away from her because of her refugee policies.

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Thanks for explaining how the election system works in Germany. We don't elect presidents in a similar fashion, but we do have the electoral college system. I've always thought that such important elections should be solely determined by the popular vote of the citizens.

An SPD victory might result in added support for AfD, if Germany experiences terrorism or more negative effects from migrants in the coming years. I'm frankly surprised that Germans are still supporting Merkel and the CDU to the extent that they are.

Wouldn't a chancellor from SPD have handled the migrant crisis similarly to what Merkel did? Germans must know that now is certainly not the time to be frivolous and support socialists. France elected a socialist in 2012 with Hollande, and his poll numbers are lower than Merkel's I believe.

truthatallcost said:

Thanks for explaining how the election system works in Germany. We don't elect presidents in a similar fashion, but we do have the electoral college system. I've always thought that such important elections should be solely determined by the popular vote of the citizens.

An SPD victory might result in added support for AfD, if Germany experiences terrorism or more negative effects from migrants in the coming years. I'm frankly surprised that Germans are still supporting Merkel and the CDU to the extent that they are.

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Or an SPD victory could have the opposite effect: Merkel's CDU would go into the opposition, and Merkel would be gone. The new CDU leadership might be able to put some distance between the party and Merkel's refugee policies again, and win back voters that currently side with the AFD. The CDU could "regenerate" in the opposition, going back to its conservative roots.

A problem with the current government is the lack of polarization: It's a "grand coalition" of the two large parties from either side, center-right CDU and center-left SPD. That gives many people the impression the major parties are all the same and their vote doesn't matter -- so they vote for the AFD. If there was a clearly left-wing coalition of SPD, Greens and Left Party, there would be more polarization again, and perhaps more right-leaning voters would return to the CDU, as the CDU was no longer required to find compromises with the center-left.

Wouldn't a chancellor from SPD have handled the migrant crisis similarly to what Merkel did? Germans must know that now is certainly not the time to be frivolous and support socialists. France elected a socialist in 2012 with Hollande, and his poll numbers are lower than Merkel's I believe.

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Yes, all parties in the parliament more or less agreed with Merkel's refugee policies, which was an unfortunate situation: A free system requires loyal opposition. Opponents of these policies had no choice but either abstaining, or voting for the AFD. If it had been an SPD-dominated left-wing government making these policies, a CDU opposition would have opposed it by default. But the CDU was in the government and had to make these hard decisions.

Which is why I don't think most AFD voters all agree with most of that party's stances, or even with the extremists within that party. Many are probably just disgruntled CDU supporters who would love to vote for the CDU again, if it just became tougher on immigration again. And if it does one day, many of them will probably return.

But chances are, the AFD will stay for the time being. Maybe it loses a little support again, but all they need is more than 5% of the votes to enter the parliament. And I don't see them falling below 5% anytime soon. So on the long run -- once Merkel is no longer in office, after 2021 the very least -- you might also see the CDU opening up for coalitions with the AFD. But that also depends on the AFD and how radical it'll become.