- Joined
- Oct 20, 2014
- Messages
- 12,199
- Reaction score
- 4,082
- Location
- #TrumpWasAnInsideJob
- Gender
- Undisclosed
- Political Leaning
- Centrist
Why Europe could be ready to go soft on Russia
Lack of progress
While countries in southern Europe, like Greece and Italy, favor relaxing sanctions, others are keen to continue the tough stance against Russia. Eurasia Group noted that, despite the divergence of opinion, the lack of concrete progress over the peace agreement couldn't be ignored.
"Berlin and Paris are thus warming to the view that the Minsk framework may have to change. This would involve moving towards a more "step-by-step" approach which would create tangible incentives to make meaningful, if incremental, progress" they said, noting that this could see the EU connecting the dismantling of particular economic sector sanctions to partial progress in the peace process.
The U.S. has also placed Russia under sanctions but Eurasia Group said that a softer stance towards Russia from the Europeans was unlikely to be seen from the U.S.
"For the U.S. to consider easing sanctions, either an Obama or a Clinton Administration would need high confidence that Russia actually wants to solve the Ukraine conflict, and that's not on the horizon. US-Russian relations are dogged by not only Ukraine, but a touch-and-go deal on Syria, cyber issues, an abiding distrust of Putin, and Moscow's human rights record. The U.S. has far fewer economic interests in Russia, and is less motivated by constituencies to ease sanctions."
"All in, given the political context of US-Russian relations, and likely future U.S. policy toward Ukraine, there's a real potential for EU-US divergence on Ukraine sanctions next year," they warned.
"Berlin and Paris are thus warming to the view that the Minsk framework may have to change. This would involve moving towards a more "step-by-step" approach which would create tangible incentives to make meaningful, if incremental, progress" they said, noting that this could see the EU connecting the dismantling of particular economic sector sanctions to partial progress in the peace process.
The U.S. has also placed Russia under sanctions but Eurasia Group said that a softer stance towards Russia from the Europeans was unlikely to be seen from the U.S.
"For the U.S. to consider easing sanctions, either an Obama or a Clinton Administration would need high confidence that Russia actually wants to solve the Ukraine conflict, and that's not on the horizon. US-Russian relations are dogged by not only Ukraine, but a touch-and-go deal on Syria, cyber issues, an abiding distrust of Putin, and Moscow's human rights record. The U.S. has far fewer economic interests in Russia, and is less motivated by constituencies to ease sanctions."
"All in, given the political context of US-Russian relations, and likely future U.S. policy toward Ukraine, there's a real potential for EU-US divergence on Ukraine sanctions next year," they warned.
See Also:
Seems like Russia is succeeding in dividing the EU from the US. I support the EU, they need to be less reliant upon the United States, at least geopolitically speaking.
