Commons debate highlights Rock’s military role

This is a ****ing tinder-box, in my opinion:

Commons debate highlights Rock’s military role



Mr Stewart had highlighted Gibraltar’s “superb” military facilities and strategic location and asked if one of the UK’s new vessels might be based here.


Like I said, tinder-box...

Abbazorkzog said:

This is a ****ing tinder-box, in my opinion:

Commons debate highlights Rock’s military role

Mr Stewart had highlighted Gibraltar’s “superb” military facilities and strategic location and asked if one of the UK’s new vessels might be based here.


Like I said, tinder-box...

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If GB leaves the EU, there will be even more tension with Spain and the US will be drawn into it.
As to Russia, the Chinese are also beginning to extend their maritime reach and the tinderbox risk will grow even further, while regional powers extend their grip on local seas like the Persians are doing just now and East Asians are beginning to do to counterbalance China in their region.

Gibraltar is no tinderbox. Spain and the UK will continue to bicker over it whenever one or other government finds it politically expedient to divert attention away from some domestic fubar, but nothing is going to cause real conflict. Both countries are NATO members and hence there will be no escalation of any dispute.

The issue of the free movement across the border may raise its head if and when the UK leaves the EU, but it will be in neither country's interests to see a closure or tightening of restrictions. The Gibraltarians voted 90%+ to remain in the EU. The Spanish have tens of thousands of citizens crossing the border daily to work in Gib. I think there are hundreds of other disputed territories where the risk of conflict is many times greater than in Gibraltar.

Tim the plumber said:

I was under the impression that half the active navy was based there.

The UK will never give up Gibralter. It's just too good.

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Naw there is next to no military left there.

Two Scimitar class patrol boats and 3 inflatables is what the British Navy has stationed there.

Airforce wise there is zero planes. They had to abandon that, after Spain refused to let the RAF pass over Spanish territory to go to training grounds in the med sea. So the only training that the RAF pilots could do, was flying around and around and around the Rock.. looked funny as hell.

Military wise there is light infantry battalion.. 650 troops, but that is at full strength.. they rarely are.

Gibraltar is nothing but a vanity project by the conservative British who long after the "good old days" of empire.

Yes it is a strategic choke point entering the med.. that can be important, if it was not for the fact that Spain has larger bases (including US forces on them), to "choke" the entrance. Gibraltar is pretty much irrelevant now days with NATO around. And even if NATO was not around, then there is not enough modern facilities there to do any real "choking" of the entrance of the med.

More important are the bases on Cyprus..

With the UK leaving the EU, Gibraltar is in a tricky situation. Most people who work there are Spanish, and most Gibraltarians live in Spain because housing is ****ty expensive in Gibraltar.. It is also a massive tax haven and a center of criminal activity on the whole Costa del Sol and parts of Portugal. The British government protects criminals and tax evaders by keeping Gibraltar around in its current form, and that is a political problem in the negotiations with the EU, Spain and the rest of the world. The funny thing about Gibraltar...Spanish is the main language spoken everywhere..

We shall see what happens, but Gibraltarians dont want to leave the EU that is for sure.

PeteEU said:

We shall see what happens, but Gibraltarians dont want to leave the EU that is for sure.

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Nor do they want to leave the UK. In a 2002 referendum 99% of Gibraltarians voted to reject the idea of shared sovereignty with Spain. They are caught between a hard place and the Rock!

Andalublue said:

Nor do they want to leave the UK. In a 2002 referendum 99% of Gibraltarians voted to reject the idea of shared sovereignty with Spain. They are caught between a hard place and the Rock!

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Good one!.. yes they are almost more screwed than the UK it self with Brexit.

Andalublue said:

Gibraltar is no tinderbox. Spain and the UK will continue to bicker over it whenever one or other government finds it politically expedient to divert attention away from some domestic fubar, but nothing is going to cause real conflict. Both countries are NATO members and hence there will be no escalation of any dispute.

The issue of the free movement across the border may raise its head if and when the UK leaves the EU, but it will be in neither country's interests to see a closure or tightening of restrictions. The Gibraltarians voted 90%+ to remain in the EU. The Spanish have tens of thousands of citizens crossing the border daily to work in Gib. I think there are hundreds of other disputed territories where the risk of conflict is many times greater than in Gibraltar.

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True, true and true. While the UK has every right to base their naval assets there - it is still a Crown Territory - I was pointing out the fact that, known rival and adversary of the US and UK, Russia, has been allowed port of its naval assets a mere 20 miles from Gibraltar. So, what you are saying is, the Russian-Spaniard military cooperation will not result in any escalation of dispute? Maybe not anytime soon, but if the United States feels as though the assets of its closest military partners' naval assets are inadequate, or Russia begins behaving the way its been behaving in the Baltics, around Gibraltar, I could see there being an escalation of tensions.

And NATO means nothing just look at Turkey.

PeteEU said:

~.................................Gibraltar is nothing but a vanity project by the conservative British who long after the "good old days" of empire. ....................~

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I'd contest that particular part of your analysis. With the loss of strategic importance of the Rock adequately explained by you already, the greatest concern of London is actually required loyalty to the Gibraltarians. Who, come hell or high water, simply do not wish to be governed by Spain under any circumstances.

The reality is that they're effectively governing themselves to the point of an "almost" sovereignty and are also having the cake they're eating, because the UK, whether it likes it or not, is obliged to protect that status.

I have it on good authority that there are no plans for a Russian naval base to be installed at Ceuta. :mrgreen:

Also rumors of that happening in Greece and Malta (where Russian vessels have refuelled in the past) as well as rumors that "neutrals" such as Ireland and Sweden (the former hosting USAF planes on a daily basis and the latter agreeing to host NATO troops) will be dragged in front of international courts.................are held to be widely exaggerated.:2razz:

Chagos said:

I have it on good authority that there are no plans for a Russian naval base to be installed at Ceuta. :mrgreen:

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Who said there would be a Russian naval base at Ceuta?

Also rumors of that happening in Greece and Malta (where Russian vessels have refuelled in the past) as well as rumors that "neutrals" such as Ireland and Sweden (the former hosting USAF planes on a daily basis and the latter agreeing to host NATO troops) will be dragged in front of international courts.................are held to be widely exaggerated.:2razz:

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To the bold: WAT. To the rest: Wtf would Russian vessels refueling in any of those countries have to do with international courts? I am just saying that such disparately opposing factions operating militarily in such close proximity to one another - particularly with the Syrian war going on involving said factions/alliances to one degree or another - could cause unintentional political shockwaves that cause some seriously bad miscommunication and misunderstandings that could lead into war, by proxy or otherwise (not to mention the very real possibility that Donald Trump is going to be the next President...) also, last time I recall this thread has nothing to do with Ireland, Sweden or ANY neutral countries. I'm talking about pro-Russian and pro-UK/US forces here.

Abbazorkzog said:

Who said there would be a Russian naval base at Ceuta?



To the bold: WAT. To the rest: Wtf would Russian vessels refueling in any of those countries have to do with international courts? I am just saying that such disparately opposing factions operating militarily in such close proximity to one another - particularly with the Syrian war going on involving said factions/alliances to one degree or another - could cause unintentional political shockwaves that cause some seriously bad miscommunication and misunderstandings that could lead into war, by proxy or otherwise (not to mention the very real possibility that Donald Trump is going to be the next President...) also, last time I recall this thread has nothing to do with Ireland, Sweden or ANY neutral countries. I'm talking about pro-Russian and pro-UK/US forces here.

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But you're in no way authorized to forbid others from drawing comparisons.

So hard cheese mate.

I am just saying

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What you're actually saying is that making much to do about what for now is very little, merits the painting of doomsday scenarios.

Well enjoy whatever amount of paranoia rattles your cage, but excuse me if I don't join you.

P.S. My reference to international courts referred to Ireland and Sweden (acquaint yourself with international neutrality laws), my reference to Greece as being another example of a NATO member refuelling Russian naval vessels without causing this kind of synthetic brouhaha.

Chagos said:

P.S. My reference to international courts referred to Ireland and Sweden (acquaint yourself with international neutrality laws), my reference to Greece as being another example of a NATO member refuelling Russian naval vessels without causing this kind of synthetic brouhaha.

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But the currently incumbent faction of Greece's government is notably pro-Russian, and this has been known for awhile now. This Spanish rapprochement with Russia is rather recent.
Which is why I think the Brits' decision to further militarize Gibraltar is a bad move. They should just let Spain handle it and be allies instead of adversaries, they have a mutual foe in Russia - but after Brexit and Britain flexing its military muscle around the area is going to push Spain towards Russia (and understandably so, even if I do not agree with it I can understand it due to the UK's recent geopolitical 'misbehavior')...

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And so the UK-EU drift continues.

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Russia is actually kind of weak compared to the U.S., China and NATO.

Abbazorkzog said:

But the currently incumbent faction of Greece's government is notably pro-Russian, and this has been known for awhile now. This Spanish rapprochement with Russia is rather recent.

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Would you call 2011 recent? It's been happening in Ceuta since then.

Which is why I think the Brits' decision to further militarize Gibraltar is a bad move. They should just let Spain handle it and be allies instead of adversaries, they have a mutual foe in Russia

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Oh, I agree absolutely. But I still see it as a storm in a teacup. Slow news time as the beckbenchers looking to give the current impotence of government profile seem to think.

- but after Brexit and Britain flexing its military muscle around the area is going to push Spain towards Russia (and understandably so, even if I do not agree with it I can understand it due to the UK's recent geopolitical 'misbehavior')...

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I see Spain selling ship's diesel and getting its exclave to benefit from the spoils of sailors splurging.

As to UK's geopolitical position, we all still have to see what is going to be made (by everyone) of the "decision". So far they can't even get their act together to the point of actually declaring Brexit. Not because they won't but because they don't know how yet.

Brexit Hands Spain Chance to Reclaim Gibraltar, Margallo Says

• U.K. leaving EU gives Spain ‘historic opportunity’ on enclave
• Gibraltar issue has been bone of contention for 300 years

Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo Photographer: John Thys/AFP via Getty Images

Brexit an ‘existential threat’ to Gibraltar economy: chief minister

Fabian Picardo is looking for a deal to keep the territory in EU single market despite UK’s divorce.

Abbazorkzog said:

Brexit an ‘existential threat’ to Gibraltar economy: chief minister

Fabian Picardo is looking for a deal to keep the territory in EU single market despite UK’s divorce.

While Britain’s full departure from the EU, including from the union’s single market, could be a “disastrous exit for the United Kingdom, [it] would be an existential threat” for the service-based economy of Gibraltar, Picardo said.

A deal needs to be struck to keep the territory in the single market despite U.K. divorce from the EU, he added.

The chief minister of the Mediterranean outpost of 32,000 inhabitants said on the BBC’s Today program that Britain’s so-called hard exit would “mean a complete exit from the single market, no arrangements for freedom of movement.”

Gibraltar’s residents voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU at the June 23 U.K. referendum. A total of 96 percent of voters on ‘the Rock’ opted for Remain.

“We’ve been talking to many people in the United Kingdom … in particular to the Scots, who have been talking about this possibility of what has been described as a reverse Greenland,” Picardo said.

In June, Spain’s Foreign Minister José García-Margallo suggested it could share sovereignty of Gibraltar with the UK.

Over 12,000 people cross the land border with Spain each day.

Spain has long contested U.K. ownership of Gibraltar, which it shares a land border with.​

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Its a funny thing this "32k" inhabitants on Gibraltar. Wonder where they live, since there aint room for that many people in the housing districts of Gibraltar.. if you ask me. Been there many times, and unless the pack in 5-10 to a room, then.. Wonder how many of the 32k are just on paper.

But he is right. I have had some friends who went there yesterday, and they were surprised how expensive it was. Prices have gone up because of Brexit, which means less tourists and business. I would not be surprised if Gib went to the Euro..

PeteEU said:

Its a funny thing this "32k" inhabitants on Gibraltar. Wonder where they live, since there aint room for that many people in the housing districts of Gibraltar.. if you ask me. Been there many times, and unless the pack in 5-10 to a room, then.. Wonder how many of the 32k are just on paper.

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Oh, I dunno. With slightly over 20,000 registered voter on the EU referendum representing an overall participation turnout of 83 pct, that would put those eligible to vote at around 23 to 24,000.

Another 8,000 being of not sufficient age doesn't seem that far fetched (I actually HAVE seen kids there).

But he is right. I have had some friends who went there yesterday, and they were surprised how expensive it was. Prices have gone up because of Brexit, which means less tourists and business. I would not be surprised if Gib went to the Euro..

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Haven't been since before the referendum but I hear the same.

Chagos said:

Haven't been since before the referendum but I hear the same.

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I've been twice; once by intention, the second as a result of blackmail. It puts me in mind of an English public lavatory in the 1950s. Ghastly, stinky, graceless place.

Andalublue said:

I've been twice; once by intention, the second as a result of blackmail. It puts me in mind of an English public lavatory in the 1950s. Ghastly, stinky, graceless place.

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One of my friends once called it "Aldershot, but hotter".

Not sure whether he was wanting to insult Aldershot in general, the British Army or Gib.

Twice is the number of times I've been as well. Second time was to give them an opportunity to apologize to me for the first time.

Needless to say, they didn't take it. :mrgreen:

PeteEU said:

But he is right. I have had some friends who went there yesterday, and they were surprised how expensive it was. Prices have gone up because of Brexit, which means less tourists and business. I would not be surprised if Gib went to the Euro..

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Seems like their only financial hope at this point.