How Brexit is a win for Putin

Simpleχity;1066011281 said:

Moscow did something in 2014 that had not occurred in Europe since the end of WWII. Moscow used military power in Crimea and Donbass to rip away sovereign territory that belonged to another state. With his huge nuclear-weapons stockpile, Putin is assured that no nation or military alliance can force a military solution to his aggression. An economic lever however, is another matter.

The EU does not possess a military, but it does indeed possess immense economic power. Moscow can do nothing about the slumping global price of oil, and the Kremlin's fiscal budget is predicated on a minimum price of $100 per barrel of crude. Prior to the Ukraine invasion, the Russian state (bonds) and Russian banks (loans) could have procured foreign funding so Moscow could ride out the current low price of oil with minimum disruption to the Russian economy. Western sanctions removed that possibility. Moscow has been borrowing from its two national "well-being" funds, but at the current rate of withdrawal these funds will be empty by the end of 2017.

Putin is desperate to dilute/remove the sanctions. Russia's internal regions are all nearing bankruptcy. Putin's bridge to Crimea by itself will consume 75% of all fiscal 2016 rubles earmarked for Russian road/highway maintenance/improvements. It costs Moscow ~80 million Euros (€) per month to sustain Putin's war-torn DNR 'People's Soviet' / LNR 'People's Soviet' statelets in eastern Ukraine.

Putin welcomes any divisive event (such as Brexit) and politician (such as Frank-Walter Steinmeier) that serves to weaken EU/Western resolve regarding sanctions pertaining to Moscow's illegal actions in Ukraine for the past 2½ years.

Click to expand...