"Super Sunday": 20% of the Germans elect new state legislatures

Today (sunday), there were elections in three German states, encompassing ca. 20% of the German population. They were considered a first test for Merkel's asylum policies.

Here the situation and the results:

Baden-Württemberg:

It's Germany's south-westernmost state, and the 3rd largest state by population, with almost 11 million inhabitants.
It used to be a conservative stronghold: For more than 50 years, the center-right CDU dominated that state and held the office of Prime Minister. But 5 years ago, in 2011, a small miracle happened: After the Fukushima disaster, the Green Party became extraordinarily strong with 24% of the votes, and could form a left-wing coalition with the center-left SPD (at 23%) -- the CDU was pushed into the opposition for the first time in half a century.
The Green Party got its first state Prime Minister ever, Winfried Kretschmann:



Kretschmann (Greens) did a good job to unite the people, rather than polarizing it, by running a relatively moderate course. Observers said he is now the strongest figure on the Green Party's right wing.

The results:


Party (abbreviation, lean) -- votes in % / gains and losses compared to 2011 in %

Green Party (B'90/Grüne, progressive environmentalist) -- 30.3% / +6.1%

Christian Democrats (CDU, center-right) -- 27.0% / -12%

Alternative for Germany (AFD, right-wing populist) -- 15.1% / +15.1%

Social Democrats (SPD, center-left) -- 12.7% / -10.4%

Free Democrats (FDP, libertarian) -- 8.3% / +3.0%

---------- all others below the 5%-hurdle ------------------

The Greens became strongest party in a state for the very first time, with their all-times best result. Yet it's uncertain whether Prime Minister Kretschmann (Greens) can keep his office: Together with the extraordinarily weak SPD, there no longer is a majority. So Kretschmann's Greens need coalition partners.


Possible would either be a Green/SPD/FDP coalition. But the FDP had excluded such a possibility.


The only other option would be a coalition of Greens with the center-right CDU. But the CDU is reluctant to join such a coalition as junior partner; instead, the CDU prefers the third option:


A "Germany coalition" (because of the colors of the German flag) of center-right CDU, center-left SPD and libertarian FDP. In that case, the Greens would be banned to the opposition and the CDU would get the office of state Prime Minister. But naturally, the SPD is reluctant to join such a coalition.


So we can expect tough coalition negotiations.


The right-wing anti-refugee AFD wins a pretty strong result, up to 15.1% from zero. But the established parties said they don't want to cooperate with them.

--- to be continued ---

Rhineland-Palatinate:



This western state is medium-size with 4.1 million inhabitants.

The state has been governed by the center-left SPD for almost 30 years, either in a coalition of SPD with libertarian FDP, or in the last term, of SPD and Greens.

The results:


Social Democrats (SPD, center-left) -- 36.2% / +0.5%

Christian Democrats (CDU, center-right) -- 31.8% / -3.4%

Alternative for Germany (AFD, right-wing populist) -- 12.6% / +12.6%

Free Democrats (FDP, libertarian) -- 6.2% / +2.0%

Green Party (B'90/Grüne, progressive environmentalist) -- 5.3% / -10.1%

----------------- all others below 5% ---------------



This election is the only glean of hope for the center-left SPD, which was almost shattered in the two other states. Incumbent PM Malu Dreyer's (SPD) popularity allowed her to win a surprise victory: Her SPD ended up as strongest party ahead of the CDU. In polls, the CDU had been leading.

This state politically still looks stable, very much like most of Germany had looked like one or two decades ago: Center-left SPD and center-right CDU are still dominating the state, and together still reach a huge majority.

However, PM Malu Dreyer's SPD has lost its majority for a coalition with the Greens -- but the SPD is lucky, no coalition is possible without the SPD leading it: Either the SPD forms a coalition with libertarian FDP and Greens as junior partners, or the SPD forms a "grand coalition" (which in this state actually still is "grand") with the CDU as junior partner, as on national level.

PM Dreyer announced she prefers a "traffic light" coalition with FDP and Greens, but also said a "grand coalition" with the CDU is possible as "ultima ratio".


In this state too, the right-wing AFD jumped from zero to 12.6% of the votes.

--- to be continued ---

Saxony-Anhalt:



Part of East Germany until 1990, it's a relatively small state with just 2.2 million inhabitants.

The results:


Christian Democrats (CDU, center-right) -- 29.8% / -2.7%

Alternative for Germany (AFD, right-wing populist) -- 24.2% / +24.2%

Left Party (Linke, far-left) -- 16.3% / -7.4%

Social Democrats (SPD, center-left) -- 10.6% / -10.9%

Green Party (B'90/Grüne, progressive environmentalist) -- 5.2% / -1.9%

------------ all others below 5% ---------------





Prime Minister Rainer Haseloff's (CDU) party managed to stay strongest party. But the true shock is the result for the anti-refugee right-wing populist AFD: It jumped from nothing to 24.2% of the votes, becoming second strongest party.

Together with the far-left Left Party, that's roughly 40% of the voters who have turned their backs on the old moderate parties.

It used to be an unwritten rule that when nothing else goes, coalition-wise, there will always be a majority for the two large moderate centrist parties, CDU and SPD -- a "grand coalition". But this coalition is no longer grand, it doesn't even have a majority anymore.

The only viable option for PM Haseloff's CDU is now a coalition with both SPD and Greens -- given he refuses to cooperate with AFD and Left Party.





On the bottom line: The German party system, that used to be extraordinarily stable and predictable ever since 1949 until shortly, is in a transformation. It used to be an unwritten rule that CDU and SPD are "people's parties", but since the SPD was crushed in two states (and in two others before), its status as such is questionable. And the CDU is eroding, too. For the first time, there is no majority for a "grand coalition" in two states anymore.

It used to be an unwritten rule that in post-Nazi Germany, there will be no (radical) successful party on the right-wing, to the right of the CDU -- but now, we see the rise of the AFD (which is now present in 8 out of 16 state parliaments), and it's most unlikely this party will go away again.



And there is cautious optimism for the libertarian FDP: It re-entered two state parliaments. After its crushing defeat on national level in 2013, it looks like the restart of that party is on a good track.

The FDP had been in all parliaments on federal level between 1949 and 2013, and it governed on national level as junior partner longer than any other party. In the recent refugee situation, the FDP attempted to run a clear opposition course against both Merkel's policies and the right-wing populist AFD: Its slogan was "Rechtsstaat statt Rechtspopulismus" ("constitutional state instead of right-wing populism"), emphasizing libertarian/classically liberal values, while pointing at deficits they see in Merkel's policies.

German guy said:

...........................................A "Germany coalition" (because of the colors of the German flag) of center-right CDU, center-left SPD and libertarian FDP. In that case, the Greens would be banned to the opposition and the CDU would get the office of state Prime Minister. But naturally, the SPD is reluctant to join such a coalition......................

Click to expand...

where voters have fickle memories, it can be fatal to hold them all as stupid (as today has shown).

I address this specifically to this option and to the FDP.

What the German voters appear to suffer (by what I can glean from afar) is a general fatigue with politics or, better said, the established parties. Not everyone is so young as to have no memories of the "kingmaker" opportunism of the FDP and that quality (amongst others) catapulted them out of political significance not all that long ago.

If they now play a hand in pee-ing on what seems to be the general B-W desire, namely to have the Green's leader in the chair for another term and this time with resounding confirmation, it'll more than likely bite them in the rear next year.

It'll also bite the CDU, even where not as drastically as the FDP.

That Kretschmann did the very same thing (form a coalition against the strongest party) 5 years ago, is already being used as a fast forward excuse by the CDU of that state. A pretty devious construction in that here a successful head of state has found (re-)confirmation where the last time doesn't even remotely compare.

Fodder for the populists that are running on a high via the malcontents.

And if that happens, regrettable as that may be, the whole darn system deserves it.

German guy said:

Today (sunday), there were elections in three German states, encompassing ca. 20% of the German population. They were considered a first test for Merkel's asylum policies.

Here the situation and the results:

Baden-Württemberg:

It's Germany's south-westernmost state, and the 3rd largest state by population, with almost 11 million inhabitants.
It used to be a conservative stronghold: For more than 50 years, the center-right CDU dominated that state and held the office of Prime Minister. But 5 years ago, in 2011, a small miracle happened: After the Fukushima disaster, the Green Party became extraordinarily strong with 24% of the votes, and could form a left-wing coalition with the center-left SPD (at 23%) -- the CDU was pushed into the opposition for the first time in half a century.
The Green Party got its first state Prime Minister ever, Winfried Kretschmann:

Kretschmann (Greens) did a good job to unite the people, rather than polarizing it, by running a relatively moderate course. Observers said he is now the strongest figure on the Green Party's right wing.

The results:


Party (abbreviation, lean) -- votes in % / gains and losses compared to 2011 in %

Green Party (B'90/Grüne, progressive environmentalist) -- 30.3% / +6.1%

Christian Democrats (CDU, center-right) -- 27.0% / -12%

Alternative for Germany (AFD, right-wing populist) -- 15.1% / +15.1%

Social Democrats (SPD, center-left) -- 12.7% / -10.4%

Free Democrats (FDP, libertarian) -- 8.3% / +3.0%

---------- all others below the 5%-hurdle ------------------

The Greens became strongest party in a state for the very first time, with their all-times best result. Yet it's uncertain whether Prime Minister Kretschmann (Greens) can keep his office: Together with the extraordinarily weak SPD, there no longer is a majority. So Kretschmann's Greens need coalition partners.


Possible would either be a Green/SPD/FDP coalition. But the FDP had excluded such a possibility.


The only other option would be a coalition of Greens with the center-right CDU. But the CDU is reluctant to join such a coalition as junior partner; instead, the CDU prefers the third option:


A "Germany coalition" (because of the colors of the German flag) of center-right CDU, center-left SPD and libertarian FDP. In that case, the Greens would be banned to the opposition and the CDU would get the office of state Prime Minister. But naturally, the SPD is reluctant to join such a coalition.


So we can expect tough coalition negotiations.


The right-wing anti-refugee AFD wins a pretty strong result, up to 15.1% from zero. But the established parties said they don't want to cooperate with them.

--- to be continued ---

Click to expand...

So what happens if there isn't a majority coalition? Like say, if the SPD doesn't form a coalition with either Green or CDU...but instead joins with the FDP? Or the AFD tries to peel off more support from the SPD since their loss in numbers is almost comparable to the numbers gained by the AFD gained?

But either way, the Green party winning more seats is good news and even better news if they form coalition with SPD, or ideally CDU, otherwise it looks all for not.

Chagos said:

where voters have fickle memories, it can be fatal to hold them all as stupid (as today has shown).

I address this specifically to this option and to the FDP.

What the German voters appear to suffer (by what I can glean from afar) is a general fatigue with politics or, better said, the established parties. Not everyone is so young as to have no memories of the "kingmaker" opportunism of the FDP and that quality (amongst others) catapulted them out of political significance not all that long ago.

If they now play a hand in pee-ing on what seems to be the general B-W desire, namely to have the Green's leader in the chair for another term and this time with resounding confirmation, it'll more than likely bite them in the rear next year.

It'll also bite the CDU, even where not as drastically as the FDP.

That Kretschmann did the very same thing (form a coalition against the strongest party) 5 years ago, is already being used as a fast forward excuse by the CDU of that state. A pretty devious construction in that here a successful head of state has found (re-)confirmation where the last time doesn't even remotely compare.

Fodder for the populists that are running on a high via the malcontents.

And if that happens, regrettable as that may be, the whole darn system deserves it.

Click to expand...

Yes, I agree.

But especially the SPD in BaWü knows a CDU/SPD/FDP coalition would be suicide for them, that's what I gathered at least between the lines from their statements.

So most likely, we'll indeed see a Green/CDU coalition in the end.


Rhineland-Palatinate is an entirely different matter, Re: FDP. In that state, the FDP has a long history as junior partner of the SPD. During most of the 90s and the early 00s, an SPD/FDP coalition governed that state.

So it wouldn't surprise many, and probably not anger many either, if the FDP joined an SPD/FDP/Green coalition here.

Moot said:

So what happens if there isn't a majority coalition? Like say, if the SPD doesn't form a coalition with either Green or CDU...but instead joins with the FDP? Or the AFD tries to peel off more support from the SPD since their loss in numbers is almost comparable to the numbers gained by the AFD gained?

But either way, the Green party winning more seats is good news and even better news if they form coalition with SPD, or ideally CDU, otherwise it looks all for not.

Click to expand...

Well, a government needs a parliamentary majority by definition (constitution). For a state Prime Minister to be elected, 50%+ of the members of parliament need to vote for him* (*exceptions notwithstanding). Which means no coalition will get power, unless it has at least 50%+ of the seats.

A minority government can only be elected when another party, which isn't part of the minority coalition, can be convinced to vote for that minority government, too. In Germany, that is called "toleration". We saw that in Northrhine-Westphalia 2010-12, when a SPD/Green minority government was tolerated by the Left Party, for example.

That only happens very rarely, because once a minority coalition trusts a third party well enough to ask for a toleration, they can just as well formally include them in a coalition. Likewise, such a third party would ask for being formally included too, most of the time.

So even when mathematically, there are other possibilities, they don't exist politically. Just like you cannot imagine Donald Trump putting Bernie Sanders on his ticket as Vice President, you won't see, say, the SPD approaching the AFD for a cooperation of some kind.

That's why there are really just thre possibilities in Baden-Württemberg: Either a Green/CDU coalition, or a Green/SPD/FDP coalition, or a CDU/SPD/FDP coalition. But even the second option is most unlikely, because the FDP has been very vocal excluding this possibility.

I know, proportional representation can be confusing, especially when there are so many parties in the parliament ...

German guy said:

Yes, I agree.

But especially the SPD in BaWü knows a CDU/SPD/FDP coalition would be suicide for them, that's what I gathered at least between the lines from their statements.

So most likely, we'll indeed see a Green/CDU coalition in the end.


Rhineland-Palatinate is an entirely different matter, Re: FDP. In that state, the FDP has a long history as junior partner of the SPD. During most of the 90s and the early 00s, an SPD/FDP coalition governed that state.

So it wouldn't surprise many, and probably not anger many either, if the FDP joined an SPD/FDP/Green coalition here.

Click to expand...

That's pretty much the way I see it.

One need understand the often totally different (and just as often disparate) political landscapes that prevail in individual German states.

As such the attempts by some "outsiders" to proclaim the whole development as representative of the "German voter" is at best uninformed and at worst a sign of ignorance born from laziness (in research).

Worst of all an application of simplisticism to complexity, where one is prone to hang it all up on xenophobia, let alone Islamophobia (expression of).

Of course it's a dire task to keep up with all the details, especially when attempting that from afar and when devoid of personal experience in the country.

That's where threads like this one offer a big help.:thumbs:

It's hard for people from a binary system to grasp. Britain has a small exposure from the occasional coalition between two of our 3 main parties, but not in the scale where it becomes the norm.:lol:

Manc Skipper said:

It's hard for people from a binary system to grasp. Britain has a small exposure from the occasional coalition between two of our 3 main parties, but not in the scale where it becomes the norm.:lol:

Click to expand...

The German situation was much less complicated until recently, too. You had a simple rule:

1) There are SPD and Greens on one side, CDU and FDP on the other, and whenever they reach a majority together, they will form a coalition. 2) When that's not possible, there will be a "grand coalition" of CDU and SPD, as they'll always have a majority together.

These two rules of thumb pretty much explained the system between the late 80s and ca. 2010.

The true huge novelty in these elections is that this rule no longer applies; you have a new player with the AFD, and the Greens suddenly booming in one state. CDU and SPD have lost their majority in two out of three states. So now, you have to start calculating all over...

German guy said:

Well, a government needs a parliamentary majority by definition (constitution). For a state Prime Minister to be elected, 50%+ of the members of parliament need to vote for him* (*exceptions notwithstanding). Which means no coalition will get power, unless it has at least 50%+ of the seats.

A minority government can only be elected when another party, which isn't part of the minority coalition, can be convinced to vote for that minority government, too. In Germany, that is called "toleration". We saw that in Northrhine-Westphalia 2010-12, when a SPD/Green minority government was tolerated by the Left Party, for example.

That only happens very rarely, because once a minority coalition trusts a third party well enough to ask for a toleration, they can just as well formally include them in a coalition. Likewise, such a third party would ask for being formally included too, most of the time.

So even when mathematically, there are other possibilities, they don't exist politically. Just like you cannot imagine Donald Trump putting Bernie Sanders on his ticket as Vice President, you won't see, say, the SPD approaching the AFD for a cooperation of some kind.

That's why there are really just thre possibilities in Baden-Württemberg: Either a Green/CDU coalition, or a Green/SPD/FDP coalition, or a CDU/SPD/FDP coalition. But even the second option is most unlikely, because the FDP has been very vocal excluding this possibility.

I know, proportional representation can be confusing, especially when there are so many parties in the parliament ...

Click to expand...

What is clear, is why the majority of the UK backed a way from a form of proportional Rep :lol: I know from my circle of friends, I was a minority in wanting it.

Coalition negotiations have finally started in the three states:

In Baden-Württemberg, it looks like Kretschmann (Greens) will remain Prime Minister, as the center-right CDU has agreed on negotiations to become the Greens' junior partner.

In Rhineland-Palatinate, the SPD has started negotiations with two future junior partners, both libertarian FDP and Green Party.

And in Saxony-Anhalt, the only mathematically possible coalition that keeps both right-wing AFD and socialist Left Party out -- a "Kenia coalition" of CDU, center-left SPD and Greens is on its way.

(Link in German)
Koalitionsverhandlungen: Gestatten: Kiwi, Ampel und Kenia | ZEIT ONLINE


None of these coalition combinations has been tried in the past, at least not successfully: There is a successful CDU/Green coalition in Hesse (and before in Hamburg), but this time, the Greens are the senior partner, which is a novelty.

All SPD/FDP/Green coalitions in the past have failed before the term ended; We'll see if this new one will be more successful.

And it's a pretty striking novelty that CDU and SPD together don't reach a majority in a state, but require a third partner. Let's see how that works -- they're damned to deliver, because no other option is feasible (the CDU forming a coalition with the socialist Left Party is unthinkable so far).