Political landscape in Germany, as the refugee situation continues

Camlon said:

Because the idea that she is "calculating" is a myth. Just look at how she handled Greece, was that handled in a good way? No, her good reputation is mostly luck, Germany was a creditor nation, banking was not a big industry and high unemployment depressed wages before the crisis.

The reason she handled this badly, is because she is just an ordinary politician. Her ideology told her that they could manage it, she was wrong.

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I tend to agree. She's flattered to deceive for a quite a while now. Time for the Germans to move on, I reckon.

For the life of me, I cannot understand why Germany is doing this to itself. Unless they are just left wing nuts, I don't think the majority of Germans are happy with the "invasion" are they? I'd be interested in hearing what Merkel thinks about it now.

MorrisDay said:

For the life of me, I cannot understand why Germany is doing this to itself.

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I've said it a dozen times in the last few months and i'll say it again: Because of White Guilt.

A majority of Europe's so-called "Leaders" are suffering from the guilt of their ancestors' past sins, from Colonialism to Nazism to Middle Eastern policies of the last few of decades. So, to attone for those sins, this mental illness compels them to import millions of Third Worlders and into the lap of luxury they theoretically stole from them in their homelands.

MorrisDay said:

For the life of me, I cannot understand why Germany is doing this to itself. Unless they are just left wing nuts, I don't think the majority of Germans are happy with the "invasion" are they? I'd be interested in hearing what Merkel thinks about it now.

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So funny that right-wing posters accuse right-wing politicians of being 'left-wing nuts' when they mess up or do something their putative supporters dislike.

Andalublue said:

So funny that right-wing posters accuse right-wing politicians of being 'left-wing nuts' when they mess up or do something their putative supporters dislike.

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On social issues, traditional right wing parties in Europe, tend to be left wing.

Roadvirus said:

I've said it a dozen times in the last few months and i'll say it again: Because of White Guilt.

A majority of Europe's so-called "Leaders" are suffering from the guilt of their ancestors' past sins, from Colonialism to Nazism to Middle Eastern policies of the last few of decades. So, to attone for those sins, this mental illness compels them to import millions of Third Worlders and into the lap of luxury they theoretically stole from them in their homelands.

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This seems right to me. The particular guilt in Sweden is to have done nothing to help the Finn's against the invasion by the USSR, except to make empty declarations. Then, as long as Germany seemed to be winning, to be their tacit ally and supplier of war materials. This was followed, post-war, by the refusal to speak out against the horrors of Stalin's Soviet Union and the craven refusal to join Nato, as did their sister Nordic countries Norway, Denmark and Iceland. In short Sweden has a lot to feel guilty about.

Sweden said:

This seems right to me. The particular guilt in Sweden is to have done nothing to help the Finn's against the invasion by the USSR, except to make empty declarations. Then, as long as Germany seemed to be winning, to be their tacit ally and supplier of war materials. This was followed, post-war, by the refusal to speak out against the horrors of Stalin's Soviet Union and the craven refusal to join Nato, as did their sister Nordic countries Norway, Denmark and Iceland. In short Sweden has a lot to feel guilty about.

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Actually most Swedes doesn't seem guilty about that at all, and I would assume Swedes would treat Jews better if they felt guilty.

I think it is more related to the fact that Swedes are being tought, they are lucky they are rich, and that people in poor countries are unlucky. They are never thought how Sweden got rich, it just happened and then they decided to share the wealth.

Many Swedes even believe they are responsible for other countries becoming poor. With that kind of attitude, it is no wonder they think they have responsibility to help everyone. Except they can't so they only help the people who smuggle themselves to Sweden.

Camlon said:

On social issues, traditional right wing parties in Europe, tend to be left wing.

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Nonsense. You would only get that impression if your political spectrum has been shifted rightwards to the point that humanitarian measures can be dismissed as rhetoric and that the terms left- and right-wing become meaningless. Try telling the Spanish that the PP are left-wing on social issues, or the French that Sarkozy is a liberal. Or Merkel, for that matter.

Andalublue said:

Nonsense. You would only get that impression if your political spectrum has been shifted rightwards to the point that humanitarian measures can be dismissed as rhetoric and that the terms left- and right-wing become meaningless. Try telling the Spanish that the PP are left-wing on social issues, or the French that Sarkozy is a liberal. Or Merkel, for that matter.

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So in what way is Merkel or Reinfelt right wing on social issues? They support taking in more refugees, they believe in gay rights, they support abortion rights, both are focused on women's rights, both want to fight global warming, and neither support harsh punishments. In addition, the conservative party in Sweden has implemented affirmative action, and given extra rights to illegals.

If you get a little bit outside of the European liberal bubble, then that is not right wing on social issues. And if they were more right wing on social issues, then there would be no need for alternative third parties.

Camlon said:

Actually most Swedes doesn't seem guilty about that at all, and I would assume Swedes would treat Jews better if they felt guilty.

I think it is more related to the fact that Swedes are being tought, they are lucky they are rich, and that people in poor countries are unlucky. They are never thought how Sweden got rich, it just happened and then they decided to share the wealth.

Many Swedes even believe they are responsible for other countries becoming poor. With that kind of attitude, it is no wonder they think they have responsibility to help everyone. Except they can't so they only help the people who smuggle themselves to Sweden.

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It is the Muslim immigrants (who outnumber Jews say 20 to 1) who treat Jews badly not Swedes. The Swedes let them do it because to try and stop them would be to display Islamofobi, the current most moral of sins.

Swedes are the most conformist of all peoples and once the consensus that Muslims must not be offended, still less blamed, has been established the only people who dare step outside it are New Swedes like me.

Camlon said:

So in what way is Merkel or Reinfelt right wing on social issues? They support taking in more refugees, they believe in gay rights, they support abortion rights, both are focused on women's rights, both want to fight global warming, and neither support harsh punishments. In addition, the conservative party in Sweden has implemented affirmative action, and given extra rights to illegals.

If you get a little bit outside of the European liberal bubble, then that is not right wing on social issues.

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There is no conservative party in Sweden. The nearest thing we have is the Moderates. This party's former leader Reinfeldt and its present one Batra are both to left of, say, Mrs Clinton.

Sweden said:

It is the Muslim immigrants (who outnumber Jews say 20 to 1) who treat Jews badly not Swedes. The Swedes let them do it because to try and stop them would be to display Islamofobi, the current most moral of sins.

Swedes are the most conformist of all peoples and once the consensus that Muslims must not be offended, still less blamed, has been established the only people who dare step outside it are New Swedes like me.

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True, most of the bad treatment comes from muslims, and Swedes just let them do it. The reason they let them do it, is not just because they support muslims, but also because many swedes hates Israel. They will pretend they can differentiate between Jews and Israel, but in practice that is not possible.

I would assume if they felt guilty about the second world war, they would treat Jews better. At least they can pretend that it is Swedes who are discriminating Jews, similar to what feminists do when they talk about sexual assaults. In my opinion they feel guilty about being a first world country.

Camlon said:

True, most of the bad treatment comes from muslims, and Swedes just let them do it. The reason they let them do it, is not just because they support muslims, but also because many swedes hates Israel. They will pretend they can differentiate between Jews and Israel, but in practice that is not possible.

I would assume if they felt guilty about the second world war, they would treat Jews better. At least they can pretend that it is Swedes who are discriminating Jews, similar to what feminists do when they talk about sexual assaults. In my opinion they feel guilty about being a first world country.

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I don't think many Swedes 'hate Israel'. It is more that they, is the usual weak minded way, have accepted that the consensus is that it is korrect to love the Palestinians. Stick with the crowd, don't think, don't argue, and you can't go wrong.

Camlon said:

So in what way is Merkel or Reinfelt right wing on social issues?

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I've not mentioned the Swedish PM, although he is a centre-right liberal.

They support taking in more refugees, they believe in gay rights, they support abortion rights,

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None of which are essentially left-wing positions. There are many left-wing politicians and parties that are against all three of those.

both are focused on women's rights,

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You've had the entire GOP presidential contenders insisting that they too are focused on women's rights too, especially when they are attacking Muslims.

both want to fight global warming,

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So to be a true right-winger they'd have to be against fighting it?

and neither support harsh punishments.

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Untrue. Of course what constitutes 'harsh' is a matter of opinion.

If you get a little bit outside of the European liberal bubble, then that is not right wing on social issues. And if they were more right wing on social issues, then there would be no need for alternative third parties.

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We all live in our own bubble, don't we? You seem stuck in that skewed, reactionary far-right bubble. You look at Europe from afar and misunderstand where the centre of political gravity is beyond your limited goldfish bowl.

Andalublue said:

We all live in our own bubble, don't we? You seem stuck in that skewed, reactionary far-right bubble. You look at Europe from afar and misunderstand where the centre of political gravity is beyond your limited goldfish bowl.

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No, I am just comparing EU with the rest of the world. Can you even name 5 non-european countries who are to the left of Merkel on social issues? And remember, if she is right wing on social issues, the majority should be.

And you might have misunderstood and thought they were all my positions. Certainly not, but I do know people on the social right support those positions and traditional right wing parties in for instance Germany and Sweden doesn't. Some of them even say they are social liberals.

Red_Dave said:

Is anyone likely to go into coalition with the AFD? If not i can´t see them having much of an impact other than keeping Merkel in power.

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At the moment, I don't see anybody willing to form a coalition with the AFD. You're right, the stronger they are, the more likely is another "grand coalition" of Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU and center-left SPD.

That said, all bets are off, in case Merkel resigns, decides not to run again or is toppled from within his party. If she loses the power struggle against those inside her party who oppose her refugee policies (and her Bavarian sister party, the CSU, which already is rumored to leave the union with the CDU on federal level) -- her successors might well feel like making a bold statement against her, by approaching the AFD.

But as far as I can see, this is really very unlikely. Much more likely would be an "orderly succession".

I'd appreciate, though, for the sake of our political culture, if the fringe parties were better included -- if the CDU/CSU formed coalitions with the AFD and the SPD/Greens with the Left Party. That's the only way of breaking out of this eternal cycle of endless "grand coalitions" that are neither fish nor flesh. But as it stands, there are not many incentives for neither CDU nor SPD to do that; grand coalitions are less risky and more comfortable on the short term.

German guy said:

At the moment, I don't see anybody willing to form a coalition with the AFD. You're right, the stronger they are, the more likely is another "grand coalition" of Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU and center-left SPD.

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They don't really need to form a coalition with them, they could just accept their support in exchange for big changes in the asylum policies. That is what has happened in other countries.

Also, I think it is hard for Merkel to keep power, if she loses big to AFD. I think SPD would then insist to get most of the power and the leadership. If Merkel agrees to support such a coalition, then she will destroy her own party.

Camlon said:

They don't really need to form a coalition with them, they could just accept their support in exchange for big changes in the asylum policies. That is what has happened in other countries.

Also, I think it is hard for Merkel to keep power, if she loses big to AFD. I think SPD would then insist to get most of the power and the leadership. If Merkel agrees to support such a coalition, then she will destroy her own party.

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As far as the unwritten rules of German politics go, it's true that in a coalition, the largest coalition partner gets the office of Chancellor (or Prime Minister on state level). But for the CDU/CSU falling below the SPD, A LOT would have to happen. Keep in mind the SPD is down to 23%-25%, too. And if/when the AFD continued to rise, the SPD too would lose some more voters to them and fall even deeper.

In 2005, a "grand coalition" was formed too (Merkel's first term), while the CDU/CSU won 35.2% of the votes and the SPD 34.2% -- that was when then Chancellor Schröder (SPD) had his memorable tv appearance, when he questioned Merkel's right to become Chancellor (perhaps he assumed the SPD might end up first, in the end). Yet Merkel got the office, although her party only had an advantage of 1.0% of the votes.

I agree that further "grand coalitions" are not good for the political system. The two large parties would lose more and more voters to the extremes. And many people would feel there is no real alternative; no matter if they vote left or right, there will be a centrist "grand coalition" anyway -- the feeling of having no impact, of not being able to change the outcome, is never good for any free system.

So what are the alternatives? A left coalition (SPD, Greens and Left Party) was unlikely even last year already, because SPD/Greens consider the Left Party too extreme and unreliable (and some far-leftists in the Left Party explicitly say they would rather stay in the opposition than making any compromises), and the emergence of the AFD makes it even more unlikely (mathematically, a new right-wing protest party sucks votes from the left, too). Which, in effect, means any vote for the Left Party is a vote for a "grand coalition".

The AFD, as it stands now, would be the same matter on the right; its relation to the CDU/CSU is analogue to the relation between SPD and Left Party.

But never say never, and something will have to change on the long run. Your idea of a CDU/CSU minority government tolerated by the AFD is certainly an option -- but only IF, big IF, Merkel is gone. She couldn't afford making such a u-turn, she'd fall with her policies. But you never know what a successor would do. CSU chairman (and PM of Bavaria) Seehofer might be such a person, someone who could pull off such a radical change of course; he has been opposing Merkel all along.

Most CDU members are probably reluctant to sacrifice Merkel, as they basically have no other politician who is Chancellor material; topple Merkel, and they risk losing the power. They're not quite at the point of running such a risk yet, as far as I can tell. At best, Finance Minister Schäuble could take the office, but he'd be a provisional candidate at best, as he's well above 70 years old already, and rather considered a very old face, rather than someone who looks forward.

So... some dynamics in German politics, finally. Only one year ago, the domestic situation looked so stale and immovable, I'd never have imagined we'd see something like that anytime soon. As the Chinese would say, "interesting times".

Andalublue said:

So funny that right-wing posters accuse right-wing politicians of being 'left-wing nuts' when they mess up or do something their putative supporters dislike.

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Read my post again. I did not accuse the politicians of being "left wing nuts" but this is a left wing nut policy decision however. No one in their right mind thinks this is turning out good for the Germans.

MorrisDay said:

Read my post again. I did not accuse the politicians of being "left wing nuts" but this is a left wing nut policy decision however. No one in their right mind thinks this is turning out good for the Germans.

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Ah, so it's right-wing politicians adopting left-wing policies. Got it. What left-wing policy specifically are you referring to. I was thinking that you might be referring to open borders, a libertarian doctrine that both left- and right-wing libertarians find fundamental.