Merkel's Last Stand? Chancellor Running Out of Time on Refugee Issue

Hawkeye10 · Jan 19, 2016

It wasn't all that long ago that things were radically different. Only a month ago, the CDU met in Karlsruhe for its annual party conference and Merkel's refugee policies received a standing ovation. Merkel took the stage intent on placating her critics and she promised a "noticeable decrease" in the number of refugees coming to Germany. The pledge was well received by the delegates present -- such that newspapers wrote afterwards of Merkel's "triumph."

But then came New Year's Eve in Cologne, and since then everything has changed -- both in Merkel's party and across the country. The occasionally shrill debates in talk shows, on the Internet and on the streets have become even shriller. Among politicians in Berlin, calls for something to be done have grown both in number and volume. And within the population, where attitudes toward Merkel's policies have for months wavered between sympathy and skepticism, concerns are growing: Will the effort to integrate more than a million refugees overwhelm German society? Can the government still guarantee the safety of its citizens? Is the state failing?

And the pressure is rising quickly in Berlin as well. On Tuesday, the Chancellery received a letter signed by 44 conservative parliamentarians demanding that Merkel reverse course on the refugee issue. "Just as in similar cases in the past," one of the initiators told the German press agency DPA, "we expect an answer within a week."

Merkel's decision to offer shelter to the greatest possible number of refugees from the horrors of the Syrian civil war remains the correct one. And it is understandable that Merkel is hesitant to close Germany's borders because of the danger that such a move might spell an end to border-free travel in Europe..
.
.
.
Merkel is fully aware that she is running out of time. If she isn't soon able to demonstrate that she is making headway, she could be in trouble. Even her own confidants say as much. "Then we would be facing a power struggle," says one.

Chancellor Merkel, for her part, continues to insist that proposals made by her opponents won't work. Closing the border to Austria? She believes that doing so risks setting off a domino-effect that would ultimately destroy the Schengen border-free travel regime and destabilize the Balkans.

Merkel is particularly concerned about the gradual erosion of her authority. Throughout her time in office, she has earned a reputation as someone who has mastered all of the crises facing Germany and Europe. Now, however, every promise Merkel makes is bursting like a soap bubble. German voters are watching Merkel fail at one of the most fundamental tasks facing a state: That of controlling who enters the country.

Critique of Merkel on Refugee Issue Deepens - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Well, the crash of Merkel sure did not take long. Trouble is the cleaning up her mess is going to be somewhere between difficult and impossible. And Europe is weak, who knows how this works out.

truthatallcost · Jan 20, 2016

The refugee debacle has been so anti climactic to me. How anyone didn't see this coming is beyond me. Yet we were called racists last year for predicting this.
Now Merkel is being offered up for sacrifice when she actually opposed the migration at first. She was really in a lose-lose situation from the start; either deny refugees entry and be branded a racist Nazi by the dimwitted left, or welcome the hoardes and suffer the brunt of criticism when they invariably go on a crime spree in their new country.

Hawkeye10 · Jan 20, 2016

truthatallcost said:
The refugee debacle has been so anti climactic to me. How anyone didn't see this coming is beyond me.

Anyone who is not a dingbat knew where this train was going..... but THE SPEED OF ARRIVAL!!

And even now Der Spiegel feels the need to include the line

Merkel's decision to offer shelter to the greatest possible number of refugees from the horrors of the Syrian civil war remains the correct one.

In the same vein as sometimes in some cultures slitting your own throat for honor is the correct decision.....

truthatallcost · Jan 20, 2016

Hawkeye10 said:
Anyone who is not a dingbat knew where this train was going..... but THE SPEED OF ARRIVAL!!

Yes, they sure got over that Mama Merkel stuff, where the refugees held signs saying how thankful they were to Germany. Now it's straight on to RapeFest '16.

Hawkeye10 · Jan 20, 2016

truthatallcost said:
Yes, they sure got over that Mama Merkel stuff, where the refugees held signs saying how thankful they were to Germany. Now it's straight on to RapeFest '16.

Now the Germans get to join the French (various terror attacks) in feeling that the incompetence of government has put the people at risk. And we know that the Japanese feel that way (nuclear), are we Americans next?

Good government matters. Being smart matters. Managing risk matters. Understanding what clues a society together matters. Telling truth matters. Allowing the people to speak freely matters. Allowing the journalists to report truth matters. Knowing what your enemies want matters, working with others rather than making demands and threats matters.

Hawkeye10 · Jan 20, 2016

How Angela Merkel Became the Last Best Hope for European Liberalism

The German chancellor may be the only force stemming back a rising tide of intolerance.

Nobody cares anymore whether the country can absorb the migrants economically: Germans want to know if their society can bear the social costs. Right-wing populists across Europe are jeering that Merkel’s Willkommenskultur, or welcome culture, was doomed to failure from the start. On the same night as the Cologne melee, authorities in Munich closed two train stations after receiving information about a credible threat by ISIS terrorists. Ten days later, the lone attacker on a Paris police station on the anniversary of the Charlie Hebdo massacre was traced back to a shelter for asylum seekers in Germany.

Donald Trump’s proposal to stop Muslims from entering the United States until authorities “can figure out what’s going on” would surely find plenty of supporters for a similar measure in Germany. Even now, in the dead of winter, 3,000 refugees are crossing the country's border every day.
.
.
.
Merkel owns the refugee crisis whether she likes it or not. A stopgap measure to rescue people escaping Syria’s civil war inadvertently transformed Germany into a latter-day promised land for millions of people. Yet the influx of refugees isn’t a “German problem,” as the Hungarian prime minister put it. It is the deepest crisis in the EU’s existence—and a fight for the liberal values that define it.

Angela Merkel is the unlikely guardian of European Liberalism.

The definition of "inadvertently" being very close to "incompetently" .

Sweden · Jan 20, 2016

truthatallcost said:
The refugee debacle has been so anti climactic to me. How anyone didn't see this coming is beyond me. Yet we were called racists last year for predicting this.
Now Merkel is being offered up for sacrifice when she actually opposed the migration at first. She was really in a lose-lose situation from the start; either deny refugees entry and be branded a racist Nazi by the dimwitted left, or welcome the hoardes and suffer the brunt of criticism when they invariably go on a crime spree in their new country.

'Refugee' should be in inverted commas. Even the ultra PC Swedish government says that only a quarter of the vast numbers invading Europe are refugees, the rest are economic migrants. In reality only a quarter PRETEND to be refugees. They arrive without documents and no serious attempt is made to work out if their claims have any basis in reality.

Lafayette · Jan 20, 2016

truthatallcost said:
The refugee debacle has been so anti climactic to me. How anyone didn't see this coming is beyond me. Yet we were called racists last year for predicting this.

We who?

Sitting in the US … yeah, it’s understandable that you might think of the disaster happening. Look beyond the three-mile limit.

You’re apparently one of the TRUMP-crowd who wants to build a sky-high wall to “keep the peasants out”, are you not? The sort of sickening nonsense that sees the problem then looks for a simplistic solution that gives privilege to the need-not rather than the needy. Totally in keeping with KnotHead’s usual blather in his bid to win the presidency.

There is NO major crisis in Europe. These poor people who trekked on foot from the shores of Turkey all the way to middle-Europe are being given shelter. Some, indeed, will find the opportunity to work and support a family. They will be absorbed into the European mass (the EU has already a population twice that of the US); as has been happening for centuries. Yes, when some depleted Europe and its turmoil in the 17th and 18th centuries by moving on to the US; where they were greeted with open-arms. (Which you seem to have forgotten or, more likely, never ever learned.)

The greater majority of migrants (not yet immigrants), however, will not likely to be so lucky. They will, one day, have to return to Syria, Iraq or Afghanistan from whence they came. It’s sad, and yes their lives have been upset, but at least they are still alive.

Because, Europe (and particularly Germany) made an effort to save them from the misery of civil-war happening in their countries ….

truthatallcost said:
Now Merkel is being offered up for sacrifice when she actually opposed the migration at first. She was really in a lose-lose situation from the start; either deny refugees entry and be branded a racist Nazi by the dimwitted left, or welcome the hoards and suffer the brunt of criticism when they invariably go on a crime spree in their new country.

Yes, so she rose to the occasion to do the “right thing”, after a brief hesitation. You evidently do not know the woman. She’s no dork, like Trump, who spends a nanosecond contemplating a given situation then blathering a wildly inconsiderate comment.

Germany, you do not seem to understand, actually is in great need of workers. So, it will benefit most from the migration – as will other Northern European countries that have large populations entering retirement.

The economic advantage of these migrants has not yet totally unfolded. Largely because der Spiegal has given a preemptively warped image of the crisis …

Hawkeye10 · Jan 20, 2016

Lafayette said:
Germany, you do not seem to understand, actually is in great need of workers. So, it will benefit most from the migration – as will other Northern European countries that have large populations entering retirement.

The economic advantage of these migrants has not yet totally unfolded. Largely because der Spiegal has given a preemptively warped image of the crisis …

It does seem that she was fixated on trying to solve the demographic problem in one big move. So then, how is the argument " we need more workers" working right bout now Ms Merkel??...1.1 million new souls in Germany over the last year, almost all of the useless at least for the moment so far as work goes because they are poorly educated, have few skills, dont speak the language but the jobs that are open almost all are high skilled jobs that these people would probably never be able to do?

Not too good seems to be the answer after a few to many cases of these useless people complaining and not following European values, such as men dont sexually assault women.

The people dont feel safe, the " migrants" bitch endlessly about the food, the cost is already up to 40 billion euros a year and they keep coming and the tallying of the costs of the ones already on the ground have only just begun. And the Germans never could integrate the Turks who were much smaller in number and who were only brought in if they fit a open job, so how the heck are they ever going to manage to successfully the integrate many millions that most watchers think are on the way if the europeans dont get their heads out of their asses and seal the borders?

What is the path to victory here given the facts? The German people have paid for unification, they paid to start the Euro, they paid to build Europe, they pay constantly now because France is now broke so only the Germans have any money in the all of Europe....the health plan has been slashed, retirements have been slashed, and now they are going to pay God knows how many tens of billions of Euro per year to take care of God knows how many millions of Muslims that very likely will not integrate and accept European culture..... and here is the kicker....WILL DRIVE DOWN WAGE SCALES of the low paid Germans....Low paid Germans who often/usually think that too many cuts had already been made to their standard of living before all of this.

MS Merkel, How in you brain did this work out to "GOOD FOR GERMANY?"

Cause I dont get it.

But I am probably stupid.

Or something.

Lafayette · Jan 20, 2016

Hawkeye10 said:
1.1 million new souls in Germany over the last year, almost all of the useless at least for the moment so far as work goes because they are poorly educated, have few skills, dont speak the language but the jobs that are open almost all are high skilled jobs that these people would probably never be able to do?

What you know about immigration is greatly lacking.

Millions fled Europe to get to "other places" - notably the US, but also Australia and South America. Whereupon they learned the language and assimilated into the culture, often enriching it. Ask DeNiro, Scorcese and Pacino or the hundreds of thousands of Italian immigrants who passed through New York’s Little Italy or Newark or elsewhere.

Just last week I watched an interview of an African immigrant who was a riveter for a German company (that hired and apprenticed him), which makes electricity wind-mills. They had spent months looking for an equivalent in Germany, Poland and Hungary – and got nowhere.

What high-skill are you talking about? Most of the jobs going are semi-skilled, and Germany has developed an apprenticeship program that makes Uncle Sam look ashamed comparatively. See here.

Moreover, the Turks who have traditionally migrated to Germany since WW2 are now "mainstream" Germans, their children having been schooled. They are just as German as Angela.

The US could learn the same lesson because it has just as many unemployed without the "right skills" as does Germany at the moment - if not more ...

Hawkeye10 · Jan 20, 2016

Lafayette said:
What you know about immigration is greatly lacking.

Millions fled Europe to get to "other places" - notably the US, but also Australia and South America. Whereupon they learned the language and assimilated into the culture, often enriching it. Ask DeNiro, Scorcese and Pacino or the hundreds of thousands of Italian immigrants who passed through New York’s Little Italy or Newark or elsewhere.

Just last week I watched an interview of an African immigrant who was a riveter for a German company (that hired and apprenticed him), which makes electricity wind-mills. They had spent months looking for an equivalent in Germany, Poland and Hungary – and got nowhere.

What high-skill are you talking about? Most of the jobs going are semi-skilled, and Germany has developed an apprenticeship program that makes Uncle Sam look ashamed comparatively. See here.

Moreover, the Turks who have traditionally migrated to Germany since WW2 are now "mainstream" Germans, their children having been schooled. They are just as German as Angela.

The US could learn the same lesson because it has just as many unemployed without the "right skills" as does Germany at the moment - if not more ...

I call BULL****

Mr Gallenstein plays down talk of a new boom. “It was different in the 1960s, with the Turkish immigrants,” he says. “We had a different kind of industry, and a lot of simple work on assembly lines. We don’t have those jobs any more.”

Low-skilled work in the postwar era required “little language but strong muscles” says Mr Gallenstein. “These days, you don’t need muscles, but you do need to be able to speak German.”

Very few of the refugees now coming into Germany do. Indeed, very few have any skills at all. A survey by the federal labour agency in October found 81 per cent of them had no professional qualification or even high-school diplomas — or at least no proof they had any.

Mr Gallenstein says it’s a mixed picture. “We have a man who worked six years as a military doctor, and then young women who have no school education at all.”

Illiteracy is a problem. Many of those who can read and write Arabic don’t know the Latin alphabet.

https://next.ft.com/content/2bfb0bd2-b20c-11e5-8358-9a82b43f6b2f

Hawkeye10 · Jan 20, 2016

Sadly, these asylum seekers are the “wrong” people for the wrong economy. Low-skill jobs fetching a decent wage are waning throughout the West, but only one-quarter of Iraqis come with completed vocational training. There are no reliable numbers, but back home, argues Munich economist Ludger Wössmann, two-thirds of young Syrians are “functional illiterates by international standards.” Tino Sanandaji of the Stockholm Business School told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung: “It takes an average of seven years before a refugee gets a steady job.”

Germany’s restrictive housing and land laws are good at inhibiting asset-price bubbles, but bad at meeting rapidly surging demand. With its mandated high wages and low tolerance for hire-and-fire, the German labor market is the worst enemy of immigrants. They cannot play out their inherent competitive advantage by selling their labor at a lower wage as tens of millions of newcomers have done in the U.S.

How about starting a little corner store? In an immigration country like Canada it takes two days to register a business. In Germany it’s 15, not counting health checks and exams in commercial and tax law. Driving for money? Uber has essentially given up on Germany where guilds and local governments have put up insurmountable hurdles.

All told, Germany as well as the European Union favor the haves at the expense of those who want to have, the insiders, not the outsiders. Add the pernicious effect of a lavish welfare state that provides asylum applicants with generous stipends, housing allowances and free health insurance. This largess doesn’t sharpen incentives to rush into a sclerotic labor market.

Nor does it amuse the natives who ask: “Why them, and not us?” You can’t have open borders and a munificent welfare state. Something has to give. Since even Mighty Merkel cannot overturn ancient dispensations, she will inevitably slip into “No, we can’t” and close borders, as the Swedes and Danes have done. High-mindedness stops at the ballot box.

Germany?s Road to ?No We Can?t? on Migrants - WSJ

Your move Lafayette.

Natan · Jan 20, 2016

It's quite simple, let's compare with a previous immigration wave of Arabs, Lebanese following the civil war there. Of the 34,885 Lebanese living in Germany, 30 000 received Hartz IV (=unemployment benefits), 4072 stay in the country illegally (11.7 percent). This was reported by Bild using figures from the Interior Ministry. Now nearly 90% unemployment rate after many years in Germany, that spells good news for the current immigration wave. :roll:

German guy · Jan 20, 2016

I'd be much less concerned if the wave of migrants to Germany came from Latin America, rather than Muslim countries.

Not sure if that's irrational, but my guess is that Latin Americans aren't culturally that far apart from central Europeans. Social status may still cause problems, but at least they speak a European language and are just as Christian or atheist as the natives.

German guy · Jan 20, 2016

Natan said:
It's quite simple, let's compare with a previous immigration wave of Arabs, Lebanese following the civil war there. Of the 34,885 Lebanese living in Germany, 30 000 received Hartz IV (=unemployment benefits), 4072 stay in the country illegally (11.7 percent). This was reported by Bild using figures from the Interior Ministry. Now nearly 90% unemployment rate after many years in Germany, that spells good news for the current immigration wave. :roll:

The German labor market is extremely bureaucratic. Way too many formal hurdles. An employer cannot just hire some guy, let him work for a couple of days, and then decide if he wants to keep him -- too many rules, too much paper work, too many legalities to consider.

Perhaps that's something we should learn from America. You shouldn't pose hurdles in the way of someone actually willing to work. Praise him instead.

Natan · Jan 20, 2016

German guy said:
The German labor market is extremely bureaucratic. Way too many formal hurdles. An employer cannot just hire some guy, let him work for a couple of days, and then decide if he wants to keep him -- too many rules, too much paper work, too many legalities to consider.

It's the same in Belgium, you don't have to tell me.

German guy said:
Perhaps that's something we should learn from America. You shouldn't pose hurdles in the way of someone actually willing to work. Praise him instead.

German economy is number one in Europe. I'd say keep a system that works.

Hawkeye10 · Jan 20, 2016

German guy said:
The German labor market is extremely bureaucratic. Way too many formal hurdles. An employer cannot just hire some guy, let him work for a couple of days, and then decide if he wants to keep him -- too many rules, too much paper work, too many legalities to consider.

Perhaps that's something we should learn from America. You shouldn't pose hurdles in the way of someone actually willing to work. Praise him instead.

Our min wage is less than $8 a hour, a lot of people work with no vacation or little, no sick days, cant get there employer to give them more than 25-30 hours and often less so they have to put 2 or 3 jobs together to make it work....which is a giant pain in the ass, no or very few paid holidays at the low end of the wage scale which the companies get away with in large part because we have 10 million illegals here many of who are more desperate for the work than we are. Is that what you want for Germans?

Germans have yet to figure out that you are going to have to pay all of the "migrants" costs but also there is going to have to be a massive new investment onto a general welfare system as you face huge numbers of low skilled unemployed who if they get employed will make poor wages, not where near enough to support a proper German. OH, and you need to do a LOT of building for the foreseeable future, and someone is going to have to pay for all that (which is EXPENSIVE because of regulations and other problems)

GUESS WHO!

And you are going to be paying for this new support of the now huge German underclass for a very very long time.

Cheers!

German guy · Jan 20, 2016

Hawkeye10 said:
Our min wage is less that $8 a hour, and a lot of people work with no vacation or little, no sick days, cant get there employer to give them more than 25-30 hours and often less so they have to put 2 or 3 jobs together to make it work....which is a giant pain in the ass, no or very few paid holidays at the low end of the wage scale which the companies get away with in large part because we have 10 million illegals here many of who are more desperate for the work than we are. Is that what you want for Germans?

Germans have yet to figure out that you are going to have to pay all of the "migrants" cost but also there is going to have to be a massive new investment onto a general welfare system as you face huge numbers of low skilled unemployed who if they get employed will make poor wages, not where near enough to support a proper German.

And you are going to be paying for this new support of the now huge German underclass for a very very long time.

Cheers!

Very good point.

Hawkeye10 · Jan 20, 2016

German guy said:
Very good point.

Thanks...BTW I edited

Please try to give me a few, a tend to write fast, post , edit, a bad habit I got into long ago when I was having technical issues.

I was in Munich 3 years and Darmstadt 3 years (USARMY, I was the spouse, wife the soldier) and at the place I worked in Munich we had all kinds, Americans, french, Italian, polish, Germans, a swed...........one day I was talking to this German and he was telling me about his 5 year effort to renovate his house. I was floored, and more than the amount of BS he had to do to get it done it was THE COSTS! And right now I am thinking that if it costs that much to renovate one house how much is it going to cost to build housing for 10 million or how ever many come before this thing is all over?

Nobody is talking about this that I can see.

Germany is in FantasyLand, it is magical thinking that has been going on till New Year eve happened.

Natan · Jan 20, 2016

Hawkeye10 said:
I was in Munich 3 years and Darmstadt 3 years (USARMY, I was the spouse, wife the soldier) and at the place I worked in Munich we had all kinds, Americans, french, Italian, polish, Germans, a swed...........one day I was talking to this German and he was telling me about his 5 year effort to renovate his house. I was floored, and more than the amount of BS he had to do to get it done it was THE COSTS! And right now I am thinking that if it costs that much to renovate one house how much is it going to cost to build housing for 10 million or how ever many come before this thing is all over?

I was in the US years ago and the costs of houses was a pleasant surprise. I think the difference is due to taxes on labor, other taxes and using wood as a cheap building material, an option that is more costly in Europe due to historical deforestation.

German guy · Jan 20, 2016

Hawkeye10 said:
Thanks...BTW I edited

Please try to give me a few, a tend to write fast post and then edit, a bad habit I got into long ago when I was having technical issues.

I was in Munich 3 years and Darmstadt 3 years (USARMY, I was the spouse, wife the soldier) and at the place I worked in Munich we had all kinds, Americans, french, Italian, polish, Germans, a swed...........one day I was talking to this German and he was telling me about his 5 year effort to renovate his house. I was floored, and more than the amount of BS he had to do to get it done it was THE COSTS! And right now I am thinking that if it costs that much to renovate one house how much is it going to cost to build housing for 10 million or how ever many come before this thing is all over?

Nobody is talking about this that I can see.

Germany is in FantasyLand, it is magical thinking that has been going on till New Year eve happened.

Well, you're certainly right that this won't end well, unless Germany gives up some of its bureaucratic hurdles. Many things just have to be handled less bureaucratically to make it work.

I'm still in parental leave and now beginning to look for an occupation starting next summer/autumn. I considered teaching German to refugees -- naive as I was, I assumed a Bachelor degree in a social science would be good enough, as that usually proves you're able to read and write in German. But wrong. Apparently, the according office is employing people with a degree "teaching German for foreigners" only!

That's a joke. I can't even imagine how ridiculously inefficient that must be, considering the demand. So what does it mean then, when accepted asylants are provided with free language classes? That they can sign up on a list, to get a class in 2035?

Hawkeye10 · Jan 20, 2016

Natan said:
I was in the US years ago and the costs of houses was a pleasant surprise. I think the difference is due to taxes on labor, other taxes and using wood as a cheap building material, an option that is more costly in Europe due to historical deforestation.

When you renovate in Germany (or at that time anyways) the government is always crawling up your ass and demanding money. Lots of high cost plans and inspections required.

German guy · Jan 20, 2016

Hawkeye10 said:
When you renovate in Germany (or at that time anyways) the government is always crawling up your ass and demanding money. Lots of high cost plans and inspections required.

Yes, like that joke of a Berlin airport that was supposed to open 5 years ago, but just won't be finished.

Natan · Jan 20, 2016

German guy said:
Yes, like that joke of a Berlin airport that was supposed to open 5 years ago, but just won't be finished.

Meh, just give up and convert the hangars to refugee shelters like at Tempelhof. Fewer people will be coming to Germany after Cologne.

I seem to recall reading some megalomaniac plans to build a brand new migrant city there for 20.000 migrants.

Lafayette · Jan 20, 2016

>I call BULL****

Call it what you like, but that is no refutation of the facts of the matter of which you are in denial.

Yes, it represents a New Challenge for the German people, but after the collapse of Communism they employed the flood out of East Germany (of skilled labor); and they will employ those migrants who remain and can adapt this time around.

Of course, many will go back, but it is also human-nature to understand that, regardless of the challenge, most are better off in Germany than they would be "back home".

Unlike the Americans who piss and moan about those coming up from central and south America to "take our jobs". (Most of which young Americans today anyway wont even touch.)

America's problem is not that of Germany's. Not at all. It is that of a country that is unwilling to spend the money necessary to educate its young with the skills-level that a Global Economy now imposes upon it. A postsecondary education in Germany is nearly free, gratis and for nothing. That same education in the US leaves the graduate with an average $30K debt to pay off.

Education is a "business" in America, not an "investment in the future"; which is where we Yanks have got it all wrong, all wrong, all wrong ...

Merkel's Last Stand? Chancellor Running Out of Time on Refugee Issue

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

truthatallcost

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

truthatallcost

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

Sweden

Lafayette

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

Lafayette

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

Natan

German guy

German guy

Natan

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

German guy

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

Natan

German guy

Hawkeye10

Buttermilk Man

German guy

Natan

Lafayette