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Turkey begins to blockade Russia from Dardenelle and Bosporus Straights

Montecresto said:
Well yeah, I know they do, but I don't believe Putin's going to allow that to happen.
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Assad is toast, they are stalemated for the most part. The Syrian Army has Iranian, Hezbollah and Russian support. How much have they accomplished?
Not much.
 
Beaudreaux said:
Agreed, but I doubt that will be part of the deal.
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That makes no sense though. If Russia and China were supporting an insurgency to overthrow the governments of Jordan, Saudi Arabia or Israel, the West would go all out to prevent it, and most everybody here would support the West doing so. It's odd to me that people don't understand the national security interests that Syria is to Russia, and the lengths that Russia is prepared to go to defend them. It's just not that damned important that we overthrow Assad.
 
JANFU said:
Assad is toast, they are stalemated for the most part. The Syrian Army has Iranian, Hezbollah and Russian support. How much have they accomplished?
Not much.
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Russia's been in there a week or so. Mind you that Syria is what's important to Russia, Assad is second to that.

b) Ideology: Russia's key policy goal is blocking American efforts to shape the region.

Russia doesn't believe revolutions, wars and regime change bring stability and democracy. It often points to the Arab Spring and the U.S.-led war in Iraq as evidence.
 
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Montecresto said:
Exactly. You know how people get when Iran starts threatening to block the straight of Hormuz.
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Greetings, Montecresto. :2wave:

Or when China started making some noise on who could use the South China Sea. :thumbdown:
 
polgara said:
Greetings, Montecresto. :2wave:

Or when China started making some noise on who could use the South China Sea. :thumbdown:
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Exactly. Howdy Polgara!
 
War, under the auspices of NATO, is a danger for Russia. However the possibility of this is also not clear. Several European countries will not support Turkey's request for assistance. In particular, Greece will come on the side of Russia. Previously, Turkey has repeatedly violated Greek airspace. In 2014 alone, Turkey was documented violating Greek sovereign airspace 2244 times. In addition, EU Member States have their own reasons to punish Turkey for the influx of migrants to Europe which passed through its territory. Therefore, even a discussion within NATO about supporting Turkey will create friction between members of the alliance.

War planning: Now in Theory » Katehon
 
Beaudreaux said:
As I said earlier in this thread. Putin went to extraordinary lengths to secure Sevastopol, and I have no doubt he would do the same or more to secure his route the Med and all the warm waters of the world.
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In Turkey's case, all he needs to do is send a few warships to blow the Turks out of the water.

Hopefully when Putin does it he will have his air cover in place so as not to lose any of his own ships, like he embarrassingly lost the bomber last time.

Turkey is bluffing and Russia is not.
 
If this is true (which I doubt), Turkey is breaking international law and Russia has every justification to attack Turkey and NATO should not help the Turks. The Turks are at the wrong here. NATO should distance themselves big time. The Turkish Straits are governed under the Montreaux Convention, which clearly states that Turkey can not prevent ships going through in a time of peace, and that includes military ships from any nation that has sea access to the Black Sea.
 
Beaudreaux said:
If a NATO member nation invokes Article 5, then the other countries have only two choices - leave NATO or respond to the request.
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"The whole of the Balkans is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier." German chancellor Bismarck
Turkey is not worth a single European soldier - Europeans everywhere
 
Natan said:
"The whole of the Balkans is not worth the bones of a single Pomeranian grenadier." German chancellor Bismarck
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That lead to WW1 eventually, plus you have Deutch soldiers that fought wars and maintain peace throughout the Balkans today, irrelevant what Bismarck said long ago.

Natan said:
Turkey is not worth a single European soldier - Europeans everywhere
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Let each European speak for themselves.

I say we better fight the Russians in Turkiye rather than have the war that Putin the bully wants nearer to home again.
 
DDD said:
That lead to WW1 eventually, plus you have Deutch soldiers that fought wars and maintain peace throughout the Balkans today, irrelevant what Bismarck said long ago.



Let each European speak for themselves.

I say we better fight the Russians in Turkiye rather than have the war that Putin the bully wants nearer to home again.
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So you too think that escalation to that level is worth another Middle East regime change, despite the failed three previous ones. :roll:
 
Beaudreaux said:
As I said earlier in this thread. Putin went to extraordinary lengths to secure Sevastopol, and I have no doubt he would do the same or more to secure his route the Med and all the warm waters of the world.
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Sevastopol, where the majority of the locals eitther supported the Russian intervention or were simply ambivilant and which was then possessed by a nation undergoing a self identity crisis with a bankrupt military was easy. Turkey is the polar opposite.

Riveroaks said:
In Turkey's case, all he needs to do is send a few warships to blow the Turks out of the water.

Hopefully when Putin does it he will have his air cover in place so as not to lose any of his own ships, like he embarrassingly lost the bomber last time.

Turkey is bluffing and Russia is not.
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My bet is that if the current Russian military attempts anything offensive against Turkey, they are risking another Tushima. After WWI, the Turks have spent generations putting together a very effective military.
 
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This is posited:

I say we better fight the Russians in Turkiye rather than have the war that Putin the bully wants nearer to home again.
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Not this:

Montecresto said:
So you too think that escalation to that level is worth another Middle East regime change, despite the failed three previous ones. :roll:
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CVAObWAWUAAwJ15.jpg

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Russian planes dropping white phosphorous (WP) on civilian areas in Syria
 
Beaudreaux said:
Russia may be pushing their luck against Turkey and NATO. Turkey is taking steps to blockade Russia from the Dardanelle and Bosporus Straights, meaning Russia's Black Sea fleet could be completely cut off, either outside of the Black Sea and prevented from returning home, or inside the Black Sea and prevented from transiting to gain access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Ukraine Today video:


RT video showing Russian commercial ships being lined up and slowed from passing through the Bosporus Straight:


Maps of area:

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Aegean_Sea_map_bosphorus_large2_e360.jpg


bosporus.gif


dardanel.gif
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Well this will probably not go well.
 
Montecresto said:
Putin doesn't want a war. Putin wants Syria left alone. That should be clear by now.
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You mean let alone Assad to massively murder their civilian population and drive them to mass migration? Do not think so.
 
DDD said:
You mean let alone Assad to massively murder their civilian population and drive them to mass migration? Do not think so.
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No, I don't.
 
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