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Turkey begins to blockade Russia from Dardenelle and Bosporus Straights

Beaudreaux said:
JANFU, my friend, did you read what you posted? You say that Article 5 does not mandate military support, yet you post the exact language where it says just that. Yes, it says "including" which could also mean "not" including the use of armed force if it's not deemed necessary, but... and here's the thing... if any member state invokes Article 5, the others cannot ignore it, leaving them as you said, "with their ass hanging in the wind." That would not happen, and the NATO treaty says so in that it very clearly states in the very first sentence of Article 5 - "The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all ... "
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Read it again my friend, it does not mandate all NATO countries to respond militarily. That is the problem with article 5.

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm

The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
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Does not mandate a NATO country respond militarily.
 
Beaudreaux said:
Russia may be pushing their luck against Turkey and NATO. Turkey is taking steps to blockade Russia from the Dardanelle and Bosporus Straights, meaning Russia's Black Sea fleet could be completely cut off, either outside of the Black Sea and prevented from returning home, or inside the Black Sea and prevented from transiting to gain access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Ukraine Today video:


RT video showing Russian commercial ships being lined up and slowed from passing through the Bosporus Straight:


Maps of area:

bosporus-wiki-gnu-map.jpg


Aegean_Sea_map_bosphorus_large2_e360.jpg


bosporus.gif


dardanel.gif
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You think RUSSIA is pushing their luck huh ???

Well there is nothing like a little naval warfare on a big Russian lake.

This is precisely why Putin took back the Crimea.
 
Beaudreaux said:
Here's the dig Monte, if Russia continues to target Turkish forces as they have been, then the Montreux Convention allows Turkey to close the straight to warships of a belligerent nation, which Russia most certainly is right now at this point in time, and NATO's Article 5 gives Turkey military back-up should Russia attack Turkey if they restrict Russia's navy's access to the straights.
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What Turkish forces have been targeted?
 
Beaudreaux said:
We saw how far Putin would go to secure his only warm water port in Crimea. Which port is useless without unrestricted passage through Turkey's straights. Hopefully they will find a reasonable solution that will not include firing at each other - again.

Russia will have to stop killing Turkey's allies in Syria, and stop bombing Turkish military supply trucks as soon as they cross over into Syria. Unfortunately, I doubt Putin will do either, and this thing will continue to escalate.
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Also this could escalate if China decides to get involved then America will have to get involved.

oy.
 
JANFU said:
Watched it
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Good

How is Turkey threatened with war?
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Russia has been attacking Turkish supply convoys as soon as they cross over into northern Syria. Russia has been encroaching upon and crossing over into Turkish airspace since they have been in Syria supporting Assad. Turkey warned and then shot down a Russian bomber that crossed over into Turkish airspace. Russia has placed sanctions against Turkey in response to the shoot down, and placed a S-400 anti-aircraft missile battery next to Turkey's border effectively grounding the Turkish Air Force and US Coalition Air Forces (until the electronic jammers are put in place).

All that sounds like we're leading up to either someone backing up quick, or war - which is the "THREAT" of war.

What war are they involved in?
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See above. I can get you links to each and every part of the above, or you can do search and the reading yourself.

The treaty refers to the League of Nations. So is it the UN as the league disappeared decades ago?
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Don't know. I would presume it would either be the UN Security Council, or a meeting of all the signatories to the treaty itself. Good question though.

Here are the articles

http://sam.baskent.edu.tr/belge/Montreux_ENG.pdf
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Read them years ago and skimmed over them earlier today right before I created this thread.
 
Beaudreaux said:
Here's the dig Monte, if Russia continues to target Turkish forces as they have been, then the Montreux Convention allows Turkey to close the straight to warships of a belligerent nation, which Russia most certainly is right now at this point in time, and NATO's Article 5 gives Turkey military back-up should Russia attack Turkey if they restrict Russia's navy's access to the straights.
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I hear you Beau, but Russia is in Syria defending their ally that Turkey is attacking. So there's not solid ground. If Russia's a belligerent for attacking Turkish forces, actively trying to overthrow the Syrian government, then Turkey already is a belligerent. It should be obvious to all, Russia's determination to defend their Syrian ally, it appears non negotiable for them. It just really pisses me off that the West thinks that regime changing yet another middle eastern government is worth risking another major conflict, potentially a world war.
 
JANFU said:
Then Turkey is in gross violation of the treaty covering the Dardanelles.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits
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Greetings, JANFU. :2wave:

Does this mean that Turkey will be permitted to blockade anyone they wish for any reason? I can't see that being permitted by the UN in today's world, which has grown much smaller since 1936! Since Russia is one of only five countries in the UN that has full veto power, it seems like a foolish move for Turkey to try to agitate them further, especially since they just shot down their plane and killed a crew member. "What goes around comes around" is the thought that entered my mind on this! :shock:
 
Riveroaks said:
You think RUSSIA is pushing their luck huh ???

Well there is nothing like a little naval warfare on a big Russian lake.

This is precisely why Putin took back the Crimea.
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The Montreux also limits foreign navies to 21 days in the Black Sea.
 
Riveroaks said:
You think RUSSIA is pushing their luck huh ???

Well there is nothing like a little naval warfare on a big Russian lake.

This is precisely why Putin took back the Crimea.
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As I said earlier in this thread. Putin went to extraordinary lengths to secure Sevastopol, and I have no doubt he would do the same or more to secure his route the Med and all the warm waters of the world.
 
polgara said:
Greetings, JANFU. :2wave:

Does this mean that Turkey will be permitted to blockade anyone they wish for any reason? I can't see that being permitted by the UN in today's world, which has grown much smaller since 1936! Since Russia is one of only five countries in the UN that has full veto power, it seems like a foolish move for Turkey to try to agitate them further, especially since they just shot down their plane and killed a crew member. "What goes around comes around" is the thought that entered my mind on this! :shock:
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Exactly. You know how people get when Iran starts threatening to block the straight of Hormuz.
 
Beaudreaux said:
Good

Russia has been attacking Turkish supply convoys as soon as they cross over into northern Syria. Russia has been encroaching upon and crossing over into Turkish airspace since they have been in Syria supporting Assad. Turkey warned and then shot down a Russian bomber that crossed over into Turkish airspace. Russia has placed sanctions against Turkey in response to the shoot down, and placed a S-400 anti-aircraft missile battery next to Turkey's border effectively grounding the Turkish Air Force and US Coalition Air Forces (until the electronic jammers are put in place).

All that sounds like we're leading up to either someone backing up quick, or war - which is the "THREAT" of war.

See above. I can get you links to each and every part of the above, or you can do search and the reading yourself.

Don't know. I would presume it would either be the UN Security Council, or a meeting of all the signatories to the treaty itself. Good question though.


Read them years ago and skimmed over them earlier today right before I created this thread.
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Interesting article.

Turkey Blockades Russian Shipping, Black Sea Fleet Completely Cut off » Infowars Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!
 
JANFU said:
Interesting article.

Turkey Blockades Russian Shipping, Black Sea Fleet Completely Cut off » Infowars Alex Jones' Infowars: There's a war on for your mind!
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It was a rebel held town IN SYRIA, along the Turkish border, to be clear.

Residents said on Thursday that Russian warplanes bombed a rebel-held Syrian town along the Turkish border a day after hitting a truck depot near a crossing between the two countries.

Russian warplanes bomb Turkish-Syrian border town: residents | Reuters
 
Montecresto said:
I hear you Beau, but Russia is in Syria defending their ally that Turkey is attacking. So there's not solid ground. If Russia's a belligerent for attacking Turkish forces, actively trying to overthrow the Syrian government, then Turkey already is a belligerent. It should be obvious to all, Russia's determination to defend their Syrian ally, it appears non negotiable for them. It just really pisses me off that the West thinks that regime changing yet another middle eastern government is worth risking another major conflict, potentially a world war.
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Overthrowing dictators in a part of the world where only brutal dictators seem to be able to "keep the peace" just doesn't seem like a great idea to me.

The treaties that gives other countries the ability to transit the straights allow Turkey to shut belligerent countries out of the straights, and it says "where Turkey is a belligerent" so that wouldn't effect the legality of them telling Russia to stay out.

The problem is, Russia would just go through anyway requiring either Turkey to fire upon the Russians to stop them, or for Russia to fire upon Turkey is if Turkey blocks the straights. Either way - not a good outcome.

I do think, that Vladimir Putin has run up against some in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that is just as strong and ruthless as he is as a leader of his country.
 
Beaudreaux said:
Overthrowing dictators in a part of the world where only brutal dictators seem to be able to "keep the peace" just doesn't seem like a great idea to me.

The treaties that gives other countries the ability to transit the straights allow Turkey to shut belligerent countries out of the straights, and it says "where Turkey is a belligerent" so that wouldn't effect the legality of them telling Russia to stay out.

The problem is, Russia would just go through anyway requiring either Turkey to fire upon the Russians to stop them, or for Russia to fire upon Turkey is if Turkey blocks the straights. Either way - not a good outcome.

I do think, that Vladimir Putin has run up against some in Recep Tayyip Erdoğan that is just as strong and ruthless as he is as a leader of his country.
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I agree with your first point, and the way you worded it completely Beau. I hope that Turkey doesn't actually do this. I'm not up for escalation on this level at all, and it appears to me anyway that Russia isn't going to allow Syria to fall. And with the way things have been shaping up lately, it's probably a given that China would be with Russia.
 
Montecresto said:
I agree with your first point, and the way you worded it completely Beau. I hope that Turkey doesn't actually do this. I'm not up for escalation on this level at all, and it appears to me anyway that Russia isn't going to allow Syria to fall. And with the way things have been shaping up lately, it's probably a given that China would be with Russia.
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Erdoğan has already put out peace feelers, and Putin has so far ignored them. We'll see what happens next. I'm not very enthusiastic when it comes to this thing easing off anytime soon. This one may go right up against the edge of Armageddon before it turns around.

It will require Putin to back down and accept Erdoğan's "Olive Branch." I don't know if his ego will let him do so, until he has Erdoğan groveling, which I think will not ever happen.
 
Beaudreaux said:
Erdoğan has already put out peace feelers, and Putin has so far ignored them. We'll see what happens next. I'm not very enthusiastic when it comes to this thing easing off anytime soon. This one may go right up against the edge of Armageddon before it turns around.

It will require Putin to back down and accept Erdoğan's "Olive Branch." I don't know if his ego will let him do so, until he has Erdoğan groveling, which I think will not ever happen.
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I would think that Putin would gladly accept a Turkish olive branch if it was attached to a promise that Turkey would stop interfering with his Syrian ally.
 
Montecresto said:
I would think that Putin would gladly accept a Turkish olive branch if it was attached to a promise that Turkey would stop interfering with his Syrian ally.
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Turkey wants Assad gone.
 
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