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Greece Votes No In Referendum

cpwill said:
..................
The problem with Greece is not the last five years, but the last 55 years. This problem (like ours, like Japans, like much of the rest of the west, who are only a few years behind them) is a long time building.....................
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Oh, Amen brother, Amen.
 
Chagos said:
In addition to which the other 18 common currency states didn't get to vote in it.

Of course this is a joke but demonstrative I'd think. Just imagine Slovakia, for instance, holding a national referendum by which Greece gets not another penny and then demanding that their democratic exercise be respected to the point that everybody else acts upon it.
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You are right. Europe is a real mess. Beginning with the Lisbon Treaty, over the Schengen one to Maastricht and the EU Human Rights Charter every individual contract is full of bad covenants many of which have been broken by various more or less important members with impunity. Together the treaties are disastrous and should at best be treated as evident gross negligence of the parties and persons that signed them and have left them in place.
But that is hardly at the present Greek government's doorstep. That was done by people like Kohl, Schäuble, Chirac or Junkers and Schulz and maintained by the Merkels and Hollands. What they have willfully done to large segments of the European population for silly ideological reasons is criminal by any standard but a European court's.
 
German guy said:
Merkel's CDU is under pressure by their core voters, too.

The only reason why the Germans, who dearly loved their Deutsche Mark, who had projected all their remaining nationalism on economy and currency, could be convinced to accept the euro back in the 90s, was the endlessly repeated mantra by Chancellor Kohl and his CDU: "The euro will be as stable as the DM, the eurozone will NOT be a transfer union, the others will never grab your money!". This had to be repeated ad nauseum, or the German (CDU) voters had never accepted giving up the Deutsche Mark.

And despite this mantra, they barely accepted the euro. The opposition and scepticism was still very strong. Many naysayers kept complaining that in the end, it will turn out that Germany will have to bleed financially, that this is just a sinister plot by the elites to grab and distribute the Germans' money. It was a huge "I told you so!"-moment for them, when the euro troubles started.

This, plus Merkel and her CDU are under pressure since 2013 by the newly founded right-wing anti-euro party AfD, which capitalizes on this very sentiment and scored one (small) victory after the other. If a party to the right of the CDU managed to establish itself in the German party system permanently, that would be the worst case for Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU.
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What is so devastating about this is that we knew at the time the Maastricht Treaty was signed that this was the most probable outcome and the people that did it anyway are getting their pensions, while large sections of the population around Europe were driven into destitution by their ideological arrogance.
 
German guy said:
Merkel's CDU is under pressure by their core voters, too.

The only reason why the Germans, who dearly loved their Deutsche Mark, who had projected all their remaining nationalism on economy and currency, could be convinced to accept the euro back in the 90s, was the endlessly repeated mantra by Chancellor Kohl and his CDU: "The euro will be as stable as the DM, the eurozone will NOT be a transfer union, the others will never grab your money!". This had to be repeated ad nauseum, or the German (CDU) voters had never accepted giving up the Deutsche Mark.

And despite this mantra, they barely accepted the euro. The opposition and scepticism was still very strong. Many naysayers kept complaining that in the end, it will turn out that Germany will have to bleed financially, that this is just a sinister plot by the elites to grab and distribute the Germans' money. It was a huge "I told you so!"-moment for them, when the euro troubles started.

This, plus Merkel and her CDU are under pressure since 2013 by the newly founded right-wing anti-euro party AfD, which capitalizes on this very sentiment and scored one (small) victory after the other. If a party to the right of the CDU managed to establish itself in the German party system permanently, that would be the worst case for Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU.
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Yeah well, the AfD's current internal power fight can't be doing it much good in the short and intermediate term. Having alienated its "moderates" (note inverted commas) and moved right into the Nazi camp, I'd wager that it's weakened itself for now.

Frauke is no Marine (le Pen) and even Marine is nothing to write home about.

Good analysis of Germany's conundrum (you're either on the spot or nearer than I am, not having visited in two years).
 
cpwill said:
The problem with Greece is not the last five years, but the last 55 years. This problem (like ours, like Japans, like much of the rest of the west, who are only a few years behind them) is a long time building.
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Try "last few centuries," you may be more precise.
 
German guy said:
Merkel's CDU is under pressure by their core voters, too.

The only reason why the Germans, who dearly loved their Deutsche Mark, who had projected all their remaining nationalism on economy and currency, could be convinced to accept the euro back in the 90s, was the endlessly repeated mantra by Chancellor Kohl and his CDU: "The euro will be as stable as the DM, the eurozone will NOT be a transfer union, the others will never grab your money!". This had to be repeated ad nauseum, or the German (CDU) voters had never accepted giving up the Deutsche Mark.

And despite this mantra, they barely accepted the euro. The opposition and scepticism was still very strong. Many naysayers kept complaining that in the end, it will turn out that Germany will have to bleed financially, that this is just a sinister plot by the elites to grab and distribute the Germans' money. It was a huge "I told you so!"-moment for them, when the euro troubles started.

This, plus Merkel and her CDU are under pressure since 2013 by the newly founded right-wing anti-euro party AfD, which capitalizes on this very sentiment and scored one (small) victory after the other. If a party to the right of the CDU managed to establish itself in the German party system permanently, that would be the worst case for Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU.
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Good points all. I've no doubt Merkel is under pressure from the electorate. It doesn't alter the fact of how much German export industry has benefitted from the Euro, and would continue to do so as long as the Euro remains weak against the other major trading currencies. As I commented, that might be a factor in her decision-making as to whether to support a Greek debt restructuring or forcing Greece to leave the Eurozone.

Thanks for the input though.
 
Chagos said:
Yeah well, the AfD's current internal power fight can't be doing it much good in the short and intermediate term. Having alienated its "moderates" (note inverted commas) and moved right into the Nazi camp, I'd wager that it's weakened itself for now.

Frauke is no Marine (le Pen) and even Marine is nothing to write home about.

Good analysis of Germany's conundrum (you're either on the spot or nearer than I am, not having visited in two years).
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If the conditions were "normal", I'd say the AfD is done since the right-populists took over the party.

But the conditions aren't normal. If Merkel's and the CDU's traditional euro policies in favor of strict fiscal discipline failed big time, this would reshuffle the cards in German politics. My guess is a significant share (doesn't have to be much, 5% or 10% make a huge difference already) of the CDU voters would be so disgruntled, they'd either abstain the next election or cast a protest vote -- and the only party available for such a protest vote is the AfD, right-populism or not.

There isn't really be another alternative for this segment of the voters. The Left Party is pro-Zyriza and pro-transfer union and the least fiscally conservative party, and SPD and Greens, while more or less "CDU light" on this topic, are somewhere in between. The AfD is the only strictly nationalist party when it comes to financial matters. Their now dominant right-wing populism might be disgusting for many bourgeois voters, but only as long as their anger at the CDU is smaller (as it still seems to be).

But the AfD doesn't need many voters to score a success. All they need is being lifted above the 5%-hurdle. Just a handful of angry former CDU voters really is sufficient.
 
RGacky3 said:
No that isn't what they are asking ... seriously, just on the basic facts Your getting it completely wrong.

For the last ****ing time, they are asking to be allowed to end austerity and do reforms to fix the tax Collection and build the economy, so that they can actually start paying back something while building their economy.

The EU are the ones pushing a bailout for austerity deal, not Syriza.
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Greece faces last chance to stay in euro as cash runs out

....With Greek banks down to their last few days of cash and the European Central Bank tightening the noose on their funding, Tsipras tried to convince the bloc's other 18 leaders, many of whom are exasperated with five years of crisis, to authorize a new loan swiftly....

Merkel, under pressure in Germany to cut Greece loose, made clear it was up to Tsipras to present convincing proposals after Athens spurned tax rises, spending cuts and pension and labor reforms that were on the table before its 240 billion euro ($262.7 billion) bailout expired last week.

Euro zone finance ministers complained that their new Greek colleague Euclid Tsakalotos, while more courteous than his abrasive predecessor Yanis Varoufakis, had brought no new proposals to a preparatory meeting before the summit.

"I have the strong impression there were 18 ... ministers of finance who felt the urgency of the situation and there is one ... who doesn't feel the urgency of the situation," Belgian Finance Minister Johan Van Overtveldt said.

Greek officials said the leftist government broadly repeated a reform plan Tsipras sent to the euro zone last week before Greek voters, in a referendum on Sunday, overwhelmingly rejected the austerity terms previously on offer for a bailout.

Finnish Finance Minister Alexander Stubb said Greece would submit a formal request for a loan from the European Stability Mechanism bailout fund within a few hours.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, chairman of the "Eurogroup" of common currency finance ministers, said the finance ministers would hold another conference call on Wednesday to review the Greek request for a medium-term assistance program...

Strengthened by the overwhelming 61.3 percent 'No' vote in Sunday's referendum, the leftist Tsipras won the unprecedented support of all other Greek party leaders on Monday.

But he gave little clue of what reform concessions he would make to try to convince deeply skeptical European leaders to lend Athens more money after five months of acrimonious and fruitless negotiations with his leftist administration.

Even with the country on the brink of economic collapse, Greek officials said the government was still seeking exceptions from its reform pledges to protect special interests...
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justabubba said:
seems to me that greece will soon be an ideal market for outside investors
with a defective banking system and too little currency to sustain a dynamic economic system, prices on desirable assets should soon plummet
the perfect opportunity for those on the outside, with cash/credit, to acquire on the cheap
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Damn. That is an excellent point. Man I wish I had enough laying around to plunk down on a nice vacation villa on a little island somewhere.
 
Andalublue said:
No, they don't, but I didn't use the word 'broad', you did. He has a mandate for negotiating with the Troika.

I think that's pedantry. The endorsement he received sure as hell wasn't just restricted to the specific deal on offer.
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It's not pedantry. Take ten No voters and ask them what their No meant.

I suspect golden dawn and communist party voters may have been saying no to the eu.

I suspect most syriza voters were saying no to any austerity.

I suspect a cross section of syriza, Pasok and new democracy voters were saying no to the scale of austerity.

And others were saying no to the deal presented in the referendum.

Now other European leaders are asking the government to interpret what the no meant. And when syriza are forced to define it I bet a significant number of no voters will be upset with it.
 
Peter Grimm said:
By the way, Britain is looking pretty smart right now for staying out of the Eurozone although, ironically, the Germans profit from the chaos as the weak Euro benefits their exports
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I'm very interested in the SNP right now. 'Europe' was always the alternative to the conservative South in advocating Scottish independence. What exactly do they support in a Brexit vote? Will they regret taking votes away from a pan British left wing party?
 
cpwill said:
Damn. That is an excellent point. Man I wish I had enough laying around to plunk down on a nice vacation villa on a little island somewhere.
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It's funny how , having derided the Greeks for voting against a continuing enforced and disasterous austerity policy , you have softened to it when you think it could have given you a possibility of profiteering from it yourself :lamo

Disaster capitalists , profiteering from misery since time immemorial
 
oneworld2 said:
It's funny how , having derided the Greeks for voting against a continuing enforced and disasterous austerity policy , you have softened to it when you think it could have given you a possibility of profiteering from it yourself
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No, I'm fine with continuing to say it's disastrous policy and they shouldn't have pursued it, just as I am fine with offering them resources to help them rebuild in return for a nice beachside villa on the Med.
 
Some things to consider imo

Both Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz have gone on record as endorsing the Greek peoples decision to reject the continuation of the Troikas disasterous auserity policies. Whilst they outline the dangers of new paths in the articles below, they are pretty clear that the policies foisted on the Greeks over the past 5 years are certainly doomed to failure and as such were rightly torpedoed by the Greeks.

A Left wing government seeking democratic legitimacy for its stance and getting a hard time from the corporate media for doing so................whooda thunk it !!!

So many boos from forum members when a long suffering and increasingly desperate people decide to use their democratic processes to give the bankers the finger............. which is a de facto support for these unscrupulous , psychopathic entities that continue to suck money from the bloodsoaked bodies of ordinary folk..................... three cheers for Ted Bundy , hip hip.................

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/opinion/paul-krugman-ending-greeces-bleeding.html

http://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...isis-referendum-eu-austerity-column/29763347/
 
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cpwill said:
No, I'm fine with continuing to say it's disastrous policy and they shouldn't have pursued it, just as I am fine with offering them resources to help them rebuild in return for a nice beachside villa on the Med.
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But by your own admission you haven't any resources with which to offer help. A consequence of your own nations thrall to corporate America in no short measure ,imo. Nonetheless , I'm skeptical that your wish to " help "them , had you even been in a position to do so , has its root in altruism. ;)


The policies enforced by the troika have been proven to be disasterous and that's what they voted to reject , that makes sense enough to me , why doesn't it make sense to you ?
 
cpwill said:
Damn. That is an excellent point. Man I wish I had enough laying around to plunk down on a nice vacation villa on a little island somewhere.
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I'd advise against it, even if you had the dough. With buffoons like the current ones running things, no amount of sunshine and retsina is going to alleviate the grief that's coming to everyone, foreign home owners included.

Today (in Brussels) has shown that, the week will show it and the summit next Sunday will confirm it.

I'd trust the people to remain friendly and hospitable for the time being but these idjits at Syntagma square will most likely grab your real estate before long plus any other assets you'd have been unwise enough to bring in.

And, to return to the people, there are no-go areas for tourists in Athens by now, inhabitants getting understandably hostile. But that's the exception still.

Fingers crossed.
 
oneworld2 said:
But by your own admission you haven't any resources with which to offer help. A consequence of your own nations thrall to corporate America in no short measure ,imo. Nonetheless , I'm skeptical that your wish to " help "them , had you even been in a position to do so , has its root in altruism. ;)


The policies enforced by the troika have been proven to be disasterous and that's what they voted to reject , that makes sense enough to me , why doesn't it make sense to you ?
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so, since greece has rejected the loan covenants required to receive more EU money, what does the nation/government now do to attain economic normalcy?
 
RGacky3 said:
And With Capitalism, given that Capitalism runs on credit ....

The problem With Greece isn't "socialism" it's the fact that they financed everything, without actually building an economy, and then did austerity which actually ruined the economy more in Exchange for bailouts.

I get that you hate leftists and all ... but why not actually give some real advice on what Syriza should have done
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The problem is that Greece had too big of a budget defecit to begin with, lied to Europe about it, and instead of cutting spending after they joined the Euro... they host the Olympics, build stadiums, hire more government workers. Then the crash of 2008 happened, and Greece was totally unprepared for it.

After that, Greece started borrowing. Lenders imposed austerity measures which were too harsh and stifled growth. After that, it's been loan after loan.
 
oneworld2 said:
Some things to consider imo

Both Paul Krugman and Joseph Stiglitz have gone on record as endorsing the Greek peoples decision to reject the continuation of the Troikas disasterous auserity policies. Whilst they outline the dangers of new paths in the articles below, they are pretty clear that the policies foisted on the Greeks over the past 5 years are certainly doomed to failure and as such were rightly torpedoed by the Greeks.

A Left wing government seeking democratic legitimacy for its stance and getting a hard time from the corporate media for doing so................whooda thunk it !!!

So many boos from forum members when a long suffering and increasingly desperate people decide to use their democratic processes to give the bankers the finger............. which is a de facto support for these unscrupulous , psychopathic entities that continue to suck money from the bloodsoaked bodies of ordinary folk..................... three cheers for Ted Bundy , hip hip.................

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/07/06/opinion/paul-krugman-ending-greeces-bleeding.html

Europe must back away from Greek austerity cliff: Joseph Stiglitz
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Where I've been pretty leery of the myopic measures myself, to call Greece's recent behavior democratic is laughable and shows that you fall for Syriza propaganda as much as most Greeks have been successfully bowled over by it.

How many times does it require repeating on here that the € is not an exclusively Greek currency and that its application and the design of EU rules that apply to its governance are not decided in Athens? Just like Bratislava cannot one-sidedly demand that Greek be put out on a limb, much as that would please most Slovaks, seeing how they had to put up with equal hardship and are hardly better off than Greece but meanwhile better off than before. Together with Lithuania and Estonia (of equal problems in the past) recovering without asking a penny,"simply" (and that it wasn't) by imposing tough austerity measures on everyone and everyone bearing the load.

Krugman, Stiegliz and Varoufakis all hailing from the same economic school doesn't necessarily make them right, even where it doesn't necessarily make them wrong either.

I won't address the remaining points (if that's the name they deserve) of your post, seeing how it's hardly desirable to turn this even more into a Greek amphitheatre.
 
justabubba said:
so, since greece has rejected the loan covenants required to receive more EU money, what does the nation/government now do to attain economic normalcy?
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Ii believe Tsipras is going to tell us all tomorrow. Or not maybe.

:confused::roll:
 
Chagos said:
I'd advise against it, even if you had the dough. With buffoons like the current ones running things, no amount of sunshine and retsina is going to alleviate the grief that's coming to everyone, foreign home owners included.

Today (in Brussels) has shown that, the week will show it and the summit next Sunday will confirm it.

I'd trust the people to remain friendly and hospitable for the time being but these idjits at Syntagma square will most likely grab your real estate before long plus any other assets you'd have been unwise enough to bring in.

And, to return to the people, there are no-go areas for tourists in Athens by now, inhabitants getting understandably hostile. But that's the exception still.

Fingers crossed.
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I believe the events of the last few days were just Greece's way of getting the deal they need anyway. The deal put forth by the creditors would not have solved the problem in the long run, so trying to pin everything on the Greeks is unfair IMO

If everyone can put their egos aside and concentrate on creating a win/win situation for all parties, then I think what will need to happen is debt relief of about 25 percent in the short term and 50 percent in the long term, coupled with lowered spending and a definite budget surplus by the Greeks for the duration of the bailout.

They stay in the Euro.

The ECB will give them a bridge loan and a deal will be struck in August
 
Peter Grimm said:
I believe the events of the last few days were just Greece's way of getting the deal they need anyway. The deal put forth by the creditors would not have solved the problem in the long run, so trying to pin everything on the Greeks is unfair IMO

If everyone can put their egos aside and concentrate on creating a win/win situation for all parties, then I think what will need to happen is debt relief of about 25 percent in the short term and 50 percent in the long term, coupled with lowered spending and a definite budget surplus by the Greeks for the duration of the bailout.

They stay in the Euro.

The ECB will give them a bridge loan and a deal will be struck in August
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There are three creditors, ECB, EU and IWF.

IWF by its very constitution is prohibited to forgive debt and ECB just as much.

The second salvage program (of 2012 thru then ESFS) is dead. Prematurely. Greece rejected it, first by walking out and then thru the referendum.

It'll be applying (or already has) for a third package and that has to go via ESM, ESFS's successor.

ESM bailouts are conditional on member states first signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), outlining a programme for the needed reforms or fiscal consolidation to be implemented in order to restore the financial stability. Another precondition for receiving an ESM bailout is that the member state must have ratified the European Fiscal Compact. When applying for ESM support, the country in concern is analyzed and evaluated on all relevant financial stability matters by the so-called Troika (European Commission, ECB and IMF) in order to decide which of its five different kinds of support programmes should be offered.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism#Bailout_programs_for_EU_members_since_2008

The term "bailout" that weakypedia uses is misleading. We're talking of loans here.

We're talking of aid that goes further into the future as opposed to til November (as with the rejected and prematurely killed package). That means impositions will be greater.

Of course we can get the EU chucking all regulations and laws and write new ones. But while the current ones are in place and honored, it takes 85 pct of all those having ratified the ESM to agree to giving aid (loans, as yet).

Germany has a veto right.

The ECB is prolonging the currently running ELA but it's capped at around 89 bn and analysts think it will run out any minute (Greece cashless). On its own it cannot and will not grant anything further.

Not with every country but with important ones (as in "clouty" like Germany) any negotiated deal will have to pass parliament. I'm not holding my breath.

Those are the facts.
 
Anglo-scot said:
If a foreign investor wanted to invest in Southern Europe in a few years' time, then how would Syriza persuade him or her that Greece is the place to come?
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They wouldn't need to, he wouldn't make it past Bulgaria to find more favorable conditions.

Everybody is going there.

For one thing the average wage is about half that of Greece and the investment climate generally favorable.
 
Chagos said:
There are three creditors, ECB, EU and IWF.

IWF by its very constitution is prohibited to forgive debt and ECB just as much.

The second salvage program (of 2012 thru then ESFS) is dead. Prematurely. Greece rejected it, first by walking out and then thru the referendum.

It'll be applying (or already has) for a third package and that has to go via ESM, ESFS's successor.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Stability_Mechanism#Bailout_programs_for_EU_members_since_2008

The term "bailout" that weakypedia uses is misleading. We're talking of loans here.

We're talking of aid that goes further into the future as opposed to til November (as with the rejected and prematurely killed package). That means impositions will be greater.

Of course we can get the EU chucking all regulations and laws and write new ones. But while the current ones are in place and honored, it takes 85 pct of all those having ratified the ESM to agree to giving aid (loans, as yet).

Germany has a veto right.

The ECB is prolonging the currently running ELA but it's capped at around 89 bn and analysts think it will run out any minute (Greece cashless). On its own it cannot and will not grant anything further.

Not with every country but with important ones (as in "clouty" like Germany) any negotiated deal will have to pass parliament. I'm not holding my breath.

Those are the facts.
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Grexit is too expensive and, at the end of the day, it's always about the money.

The politicians and lawyers will make it happen....of course that is just my optimism on European cooperative ability talking, only time will tell.
 
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