Thousands of Russian Troops in Airport Push

Thousands of Russian Troops in Airport Push
1/23/15
James Rupert

A “substantial number” of Russian Federation special forces troops led this week’s capture of the Donetsk airport amid what appears to be Russia’s biggest direct military offensive in Ukraine since last summer. The offensive, by thousands of Russian troops, appears aimed at least in part at forcing a re-negotiation of the September cease-fire agreement, which has proven an obstacle for the Kremlin in its key goal: constraining Ukraine’s pursuit of closer ties with Europe and the West.

In recent weeks, Russia has boosted its troop numbers inside southeastern Ukraine’s Donbas region to about 9,000, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said this week in a speech at Davos, Switzerland. Ukraine’s intelligence services routinely monitor Russian military movements across the stretches of the Ukraine-Russia border that are under the effective control of Russian forces. Along with NATO, which uses satellite surveillance of the same area, Ukraine has reported what Herbst says is “a massive resupply of Russian heavy equipment—tanks, armored personnel carriers, missile systems—into Ukraine over the past month. Obviously, these are all things that were stocked for the offensive that we’re seeing right now.”

Putin has insisted that Ukraine must remain in the Russian sphere of influence and join a Russian-led economic bloc that is a centerpiece of Putin’s strategy for maintaining Russia’s long-term security and economic future as the dominant power in Eurasia.

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The rebels are immediately determined to capture the airport and drive government forces from Debaltseve, Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk. Capturing the Donetsk airport is simply the opening salvo in a new offensive with broader strategic aims. The pro-Russia rebels are in gross violation of the 5 September 2014 Minsk Agreement ceasefire, reject any new ceasefires, and openly state their intent to capture more Ukrainian territory...

Pro-Russian rebels reject peace deal, launch new offensive

January 24, 2015

Pro-Russian rebels in eastern Ukraine rejected a previously signed peace deal Friday and launched a new multipronged offensive against Ukrainian government troops, upending recent European attempts to mediate an end to the fighting. The main separatist leader in the rebellious Donetsk region vowed to push Ukrainian soldiers out of the area and said insurgents would not take part in any more cease-fire talks. Another rebel went even further, saying they would not abide by a peace deal signed in September. Separatist leader Alexander Zakharchenko said rebel fighters went on the offensive to gain more territory and forestall a Ukrainian attack. He declared they would push government troops to the border of the Donetsk region and possibly beyond.

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Despite the poor state of the Russian economy due to falling oil prices and international sanctions, Putin has apparently decided on a winter war offensive, possibly to create a land-bridge from Russia to Crimea, which was invaded by Russian forces and then illegally annexed to Russia in spring of 2014. This vital land-bridge necessitates conquering more territory. The graphic below illustrates the additional territory that Russia must wrench from Ukraine...



Such a thrust would necessitate taking the large Ukrainian coastal city of Mariupol along the Sea of Azov in southern Zaporizhia Oblast. The rebels are probing the Mariupol city defenses every day. The Ukraine government estimates that there are now in excess of 9,000 Russian troops on Ukraine soil. Russia denies even one. But there is no practical way that rebel forces alone could plan/initiate/supply a multiple-front-offensive. The highly-armored mechanized forces involved in the new offensive can only be accounted for by a massive infusion of military assistance from the Russian Federation.

Rather than be content with Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, Putin has decided to double-down and control even more Ukrainian territory.

Simpleχity;1064233042 said:

The rebels are immediately determined to capture the airport and drive government forces from Debaltseve, Slavyansk, and Kramatorsk. Capturing the Donetsk airport is simply the opening salvo in a new offensive with broader strategic aims. The pro-Russia rebels are in gross violation of the 5 September 2014 Minsk Agreement ceasefire, reject any new ceasefires, and openly state their intent to capture more Ukrainian territory...

Pro-Russian rebels reject peace deal, launch new offensive

---

Despite the poor state of the Russian economy due to falling oil prices and international sanctions, Putin has apparently decided on a winter war offensive, possibly to create a land-bridge from Russia to Crimea, which was invaded by Russian forces and then illegally annexed to Russia in spring of 2014. This vital land-bridge necessitates conquering more territory. The graphic below illustrates the additional territory that Russia must wrench from Ukraine...

Such a thrust would necessitate taking the large Ukrainian coastal city of Mariupol along the Sea of Azov in southern Zaporizhia Oblast. The rebels are probing the Mariupol city defenses every day. The Ukraine government estimates that there are now in excess of 9,000 Russian troops on Ukraine soil. Russia denies even one. But there is no practical way that rebel forces alone could plan/initiate/supply a multiple-front-offensive. The highly-armored mechanized forces involved in the new offensive can only be accounted for by a massive infusion of military assistance from the Russian Federation.

Rather than be content with Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, Putin has decided to double-down and control even more Ukrainian territory.

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Come on. Get real! All the EU crap about its importance as guarantor of peace in Europe has hit the fan. There is war in Europe again. And we know that the airport is important and that Putin wants the Crimea corridor. Of course he will take it. He knows the Germans will not allow effective counter measures be taken. He would be crazy to stop now.

Simpleχity;1064233042 said:

Rather than be content with Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, Putin has decided to double-down and control even more Ukrainian territory.

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Classic ask for more (i.e., entire coastal Ukrainian territory) in order to take what was never yours (i.e., Crimea alone) approach.

Simpleχity;1064233042 said:

A “substantial number” of Russian Federation special forces troops led this week’s capture of the Donetsk airport amid what appears to be Russia’s biggest direct military offensive in Ukraine since last summer. The offensive, by thousands of Russian troops, appears aimed at least in part at forcing a re-negotiation of the September cease-fire agreement, which has proven an obstacle for the Kremlin in its key goal: constraining Ukraine’s pursuit of closer ties with Europe and the West.

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Can I see some proof of this "substantial number of Russian Federation special forces" which "led this week’s capture of the Donetsk airport"



Btw I see you like posting that Minsk agreement wiki.
Here is a nice article for you to read, don't worry it is strictly pro-ATO and comes from a heavily pro-Kiev site
Gazeta.zn.ua - Bloody Topography [In Russian]
There are a lot of things that we don't know about that agreement and I am sure that there is a lot more that we would never know of. Such as for instance the fact that the airport was supposed to be given to DNR - which would probably would have been a very "interesting" surprise to the "cyborgs" that defended it.

EDIT: Map annotation.
Green: Border under Ukrainian control
Red: Border not under Ukrainian control
Doted line: Demarcation line according to the appendix to Minsk memorandum 19.9.14
Red line: Line proposed by Putin in letter to Poroshenko 15.1.15
Grey line: Factual demarcation line 19.9.14 according to NSDC ATO map
Grey area: Territory controlled by the terrorists 19.9.14
Plane: Donetsk airport
Red mark: Dots through which the demarcation line passes
Explosion: Places of encounters with terrorists



Fallen.

DDD said:

Classic ask for more (i.e., entire coastal Ukrainian territory) in order to take what was never yours (i.e., Crimea alone) approach.

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Crimea was part of Russia until the 1950s. It didn't matter then because it was all the USSR, but after the breakup of that country it began to matter a lot.

Greeeeaaat...

Say what you will about Putin. At least he keeps things interesting. :lol:

rocket88 said:

Crimea was part of Russia until the 1950s. It didn't matter then because it was all the USSR, but after the breakup of that country it began to matter a lot.

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A bad divorce.

Still, Crimea was Ukrainian last and was annexed illegally from Russia.

A “substantial number” of Russian Federation special forces troops led this week’s capture of the Donetsk airport amid what appears to be Russia’s biggest direct military offensive in Ukraine since last summer.

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Well, no proofs - as usual?

As I forecast yesterday morning in the opening post...

Simpleχity;1064233042 said:

Despite the poor state of the Russian economy due to falling oil prices and international sanctions, Putin has apparently decided on a winter war offensive, possibly to create a land-bridge from Russia to Crimea, which was invaded by Russian forces and then illegally annexed to Russia in spring of 2014. This vital land-bridge necessitates conquering more territory. The graphic below illustrates the additional territory that Russia must wrench from Ukraine...

Such a thrust would necessitate taking the large Ukrainian coastal city of Mariupol along the Sea of Azov in southern Zaporizhia Oblast. The rebels are probing the Mariupol city defenses every day. The Ukraine government estimates that there are now in excess of 9,000 Russian troops on Ukraine soil. Russia denies even one. But there is no practical way that rebel forces alone could plan/initiate/supply a multiple-front-offensive. The highly-armored mechanized forces involved in the new offensive can only be accounted for by a massive infusion of military assistance from the Russian Federation.

Rather than be content with Crimea and parts of eastern Ukraine, Putin has decided to double-down and control even more Ukrainian territory.

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Ukraine crisis: Rockets 'kill at least 30' in Mariupol

Pro-Russian rebels launched an offensive against the strategic port of Mariupol in eastern Ukraine on Saturday, prompting the European Union's foreign policy chief to warn of a further "grave deterioration" in EU-Russian relations. Mariupol's city administration said the rebels had killed at least 30 people and injured 83 others in the offensive by firing rockets from long-range GRAD missile systems. The city of 500,000 on the Sea of Azov is vital for eastern Ukraine's steel and grain exports and also straddles the coastal route from the Russian border to Crimea, the Black Sea peninsula in southern Ukraine seized by Russia last March.

"Today an offensive was launched on Mariupol. This will be the best possible monument to all our dead," Russia's RIA news agency quoted rebel leader Alexander Zakharchenko as saying at a memorial ceremony in the separatist-held city of Donetsk.

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The pro-Russia rebel MLRS Grad rocket attacks hit a market, two schools, homes and shops.


[video=youtube;X5TFXLocXBM]http://www.youtube.com/watch?X5TFXLocXBM[/video]


LiveLeak: New dashcam video of Mariupol Grad attack

Meanwhile, the UN is still AWOL on the situation.

Roadvirus said:

Meanwhile, the UN is still AWOL on the situation.

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Nope, the UN is "working" just as it always does - spending more each year.

Simpleχity;1064236162 said:

As I forecast yesterday morning in the opening post...

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What exactly did you forecast, the advance on Mariupol?

Fallen.

Fallenangel said:

What exactly did you forecast, the advance on Mariupol?

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Indeed. I even provided a graphic illustrating the route of advance and mentioned Mariupol specifically.



Hours later Mariupol has 30 dead and over 100 wounded.

The rebels initially announced the Mariupol assault and only later denied it after it became evident that civilians had been massacred.

Simpleχity;1064238860 said:

Indeed. I even provided a graphic illustrating the route of advance and mentioned Mariupol specifically.

Hours later Mariupol has 30 dead and over 100 wounded.

The rebels initially announced the Mariupol assault and only later denied it after it became evident that civilians had been massacred.

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Don't want to burst your bubble, but the rebel advance towards Mariupol was a known fact and was occurring for quite some time along with their attempts to surround Debaltzevo.

Here is for example a quote from my post 20.01.15:
* DNR is also trying to push even further along the Mariupol direction

so ..yeah..

Fallen.

Fallenangel said:

Btw I see you like posting that Minsk agreement wiki.
Here is a nice article for you to read, don't worry it is strictly pro-ATO and comes from a heavily pro-Kiev site
Gazeta.zn.ua - Bloody Topography [In Russian]
There are a lot of things that we don't know about that agreement and I am sure that there is a lot more that we would never know of. Such as for instance the fact that the airport was supposed to be given to DNR - which would probably would have been a very "interesting" surprise to the "cyborgs" that defended it.


Fallen.

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Do you have English translation of the Agreement, which gives control of the Donetsk airport to the rebels?

What do the rebels hope to gain by attacking Melitopol?

How are the Ukraine forces blocking the desires of the rebels in Melitopol and Kherson?



//

Gladiator said:

Do you have English translation of the Agreement, which gives control of the Donetsk airport to the rebels?

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Quick translation from the article - done by Google & moi:
Firstly, "Minsk" line is passing considerably west of the actual line of contact on 09/19/2014. Some areas of the territory, controlled at the time by the Ukrainians, according to Minsk arrangements must be placed under the control of separatists. The Ukrainian side as a result of this "exchange" should get control of a small area in the region Debaltseve-Popasnaya, which was captured by militants.

Secondly, the map clearly shows that the Donetsk airport (DAP) is located east of
the agreed "Minsk" line, ie in the territory, which should move the separatists. And this despite the fact that the on the map of NSDC the Airport is in the combat zone, and in the numerous commentaries Ukrainian officials argued that the DAP is controlled by the Ukrainian side.

Last Sunday, 18 January the Russian Foreign Ministry said that the airport "under the Minsk agreements should be placed under the control of the militias." Representatives of the Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and National Security Council were quick to respond: in Minsk agreements contained in the report dated September 5, and Memorandum dated September 19, 2014, there is not a single word about the Donetsk airport. Did he lie? No. But didn't reveal the truth either. In Minsk, documents in fact there is no word on the DAP. But according to the numbers - the coordinates set forth in the Annex to the Memorandum, the airport has to move to the separatists. Perhaps that is why this document was remained unpublished until now. As explained to ZN.UA one of the sources, according to the arrangements of the Minsk airport had to move to the separatists as a result of mutual obligations: the militants also had to pass under the control of a number of Ukrainian settlements. But they did not do that, and did not fulfill the remaining items of the Memorandum of Minsk.

Gladiator said:

What do the rebels hope to gain by attacking Melitopol?

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You mean Mariupol. It is an important port city in the region Mariupol - wiki

Gladiator said:

How are the Ukraine forces blocking the desires of the rebels in Melitopol and Kherson?
//

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Herson?!? Please look at the map, it is very very far from the ATO zone.
Ukrainian forces tried supposedly to carry out few counter attacks - so far with little success.
If possible they would try to fight off the rebels using the units they have stationed in Mariupol and its surrounding which include everything from Azov battalion to regular troops.

...or you mean the desires of people living now in those cities?

Fallen.

Gladiator said:

Do you have English translation of the Agreement, which gives control of the Donetsk airport to the rebels?

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The ceasefire (Minsk Agreement) froze forces in-place on 5 September 2014.

Gladiator said:

What do the rebels hope to gain by attacking Melitopol?

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You mean Mariupol. The rebels (and Russia) covet this Ukrainian coastal city (500,000) because it must fall if Russia is to establish a land-bridge between Russia proper and the illegally annexed Crimea. In addition, it is a port city which would facilitate supplying rebel forces in landlocked Donetsk Oblast.

Gladiator said:

How are the Ukraine forces blocking the desires of the rebels in Melitopol and Kherson?

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The people of Mariupol are aligned with the government and civilians have dug defensive trenches around the perimeter of the city.


The city of Mariupol


The green line denotes the Ukraine/Russia border. Red arrow denotes the rebel/Russian advance

^

Hopefully, this map is the "intended Rebel advances" and not the "actual rebel advances". If the map is accurate, then all road connections in and out of Mariupol have been cut. Ukraine does not have any where near the ability to supply it by sea and any attempt to do so would probably be quickly stopped by Russian naval ships manned by "vacationing" Russian sailors.

Simpleχity;1064243400 said:

The people of Mariupol are aligned with the government and civilians have dug defensive trenches around the perimeter of the city.

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Simpleχity;1064243400 said:

The people of Mariupol are aligned with the government and civilians have dug defensive trenches around the perimeter of the city.

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I would not be surprised if the ultiamte loyalty of many people in Mariupol depends on who is asking the question, how it is phrased, and perhaps most importantly, what obligations are being placed on the person for a "yes, I am loyal" answer.

The Mariupol town hall changed hands several times between Russian and Ukrainian mobs and then militias. When Ukrianian volunteer batallions took the city, most of the Russian militiamen fled. Now that the rebels are back a certain number of residents are willing to serve in militia companies and actively dig fortifications. This number, however, is probably not that much bigger than the number of residents who were willing to actively support the Russian rebels.

Cryptic said:

^

Hopefully, this map is the "intended Rebel advances" and not the "actual rebel advances". If the map is accurate, then all road connections in and out of Mariupol have been cut. Ukraine does not have any where near the ability to supply it by sea and any attempt to do so would probably be quickly stopped by Russian naval ships manned by "vacationing" Russian sailors.

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Actually this map is from August 2014 when anti-Kiev fighters launched a counter-offensive against Kiev forces.

Btw you really need to stop underestimating the number of actual Russian ex-military volunteers that went to fight for DNR and LNR.
Even men from small towns in Ural went to fight for what they believe is right, and the amount of money and equipment being acquired through various donations is also quite amazing.

Some examples:






Fallen.

Fallenangel said:

Actually this map is from August 2014 when anti-Kiev fighters launched a counter-offensive against Kiev forces.

Btw you really need to stop underestimating the number of actual Russian ex-military volunteers that went to fight for DNR and LNR.
Even men from small towns in Ural went to fight for what they believe is right, and the amount of money and equipment being acquired through various donations is also quite amazing.

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I can fully accept that Russians fighting in the Donbass are a mixure of volunteers, mercenaries, and soldiers. Many of the mercenaries may well support the rebels emotionally. Putin's offer of several years wages for specialists just made it easier for them to actively support the rebels via fighting with them.

What does surprise me is the number of Russians who have bought Putin's lies, and continue to volunteer- even as casualties mount. Of course with Putin, nobody knows how many have been killed. My guess is that rebel / Russian casualties mirror the Ukrainian.

That aside, there seems to indicate that there is a large number angry men in Russia with out alot of employment prospects who want to do something to give meaning to their lives. Or, to restore something they lost (global respect for Russia) This is not that much different than what dives many Jihaders.

We have men like that here in the US as well. Some volunteered for Iraq (another poorly thought out war). Others sit at home and fume. In the end, the US offers enough fair oppurtunity to keep them from exploding. Russia does not seem to offer such oppurtunity. think a certain number of these men are going to return to the Urals with their weapons. "The System" they find is going to be the same "System" they left. Some then might get angry.... .

Cryptic said:

I can fully accept that Russians fighting in the Donbass are a mixure of volunteers, mercenaries, and soldiers. Many of the mercenaries may well support the rebels emotionally. Putin's offer of several years wages for specialists just made it easier for them to actively support the rebels via fighting with them.

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Link to Putin's offer?

Cryptic said:

What does surprise me is the number of Russians who have bought Putin's lies, and continue to volunteer- even as casualties mount. Of course with Putin, nobody knows how many have been killed. My guess is that rebel / Russian casualties mirror the Ukrainian.

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There are indeed huge levels of propaganda on state TV but you are underestimating Russian's knowledge of intricacies of the conflict in Ukraine.
Despite that they support Russia's actions on the world arena and accuse the corrupt government of not being better prepared for such crisis, and for neglecting the development of Russia's economy for so long.

Cryptic said:

That aside, there seems to indicate that there is a large number angry men in Russia with out a lot of employment prospects who want to do something to give meaning to their lives. Or, to restore something they lost (global respect for Russia) This is not that much different than what dives many Jihaders.

We have men like that here in the US as well. Some volunteered for Iraq (another poorly thought out war). Others sit at home and fume. In the end, the US offers enough fair opportunity to keep them from exploding. Russia does not seem to offer such opportunity. think a certain number of these men are going to return to the Urals with their weapons. "The System" they find is going to be the same "System" they left. Some then might get angry.... .

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There is quite a lot of truth in the above. However equivocation of US or Russian men fighting in Iraq, Syria or Ukraine to Jihadists is far from correct ,as it ignores quite a large array of other aspects that affected future Jihadist in their decisions to join ISIS, Boko Haram ,etc..

Fallen.

Fallenangel said:

Link to Putin's offer?

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Your favorite source, censor.net states that Putin was paying artuillery and armour specialists upto 30,000 dollars for a contract. As a side note, this would coorespond to Blackwater wages (adjusted for cost of living differences and economic levels) for desirable specialists employed in Iraq and Afghanistsan.

I agree, there is no equivelent in the broad sense between Jihaders and Iraq / Donbass volunteers. What is equivelant is that a sense of social loss (loss of prestige) coupled with limited economic oppurtunities motivates some young men to fight for causes that they would not otherwise have been inclined to. Many Jihaders are not life long religous fanatics. Rather, they are largely secular people who want a cause- any cause, to give their life meaning. The Paris attackers were secular backgrounds.

Fallenangel said:

There is quite a lot of truth in the above. However equivocation of US or Russian men fighting in Iraq, Syria or Ukraine to Jihadists is far from correct ,as it ignores quite a large array of other aspects that affected future Jihadist in their decisions to join ISIS, Boko Haram ,etc..

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These causes can be the "jihad", Donbass, or Iraq. As for Iraq, I think the numbers of these men were lower than the other categories because the US system still affords sufficinet oppurtunites to that Iraq was not the only option for "angry young men". As Russia has fewer oppurtunities, my guess is that the level of angry young men in Donbass is probably higher.

What Putin should realize is some of these men are going to return home not only angry, but armed. They will then find the same "System" that they left.

ttwtt78640 said:

Nope, the UN is "working" just as it always does - spending more each year.

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**** the UN, useless.

Cryptic said:

^

Hopefully, this map is the "intended Rebel advances" and not the "actual rebel advances". If the map is accurate, then all road connections in and out of Mariupol have been cut. Ukraine does not have any where near the ability to supply it by sea and any attempt to do so would probably be quickly stopped by Russian naval ships manned by "vacationing" Russian sailors.

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Only road open to Mariupol is the E58 along the coast right now. Debaltseve is in the process of being cut off with about a few thousand Ukrainian forces stuck in the area. It's going so bad right now for Ukraine.