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The future of Ukraine[W:863]

Jack Hays said:
There can be no rebuttal to crazy.
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Now Mearsheimer is crazy, lol. John Mearsheimer recognises intrigue when he sees it and isn't apologising for it.

"For Putin, the illegal overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected and pro-Russian president—which he rightly labeled a “coup”—was the final straw. He responded by taking Crimea, a pen- insula he feared would host a NATO naval base, and working to desta- bilize Ukraine until it abandoned its efforts to join the West".

"U.S. and European leaders blundered in attempting to turn Ukraine into a Western stronghold on Russia’s border. Now that the consequences have been laid bare, it would be an even greater mistake to continue this misbegotten policy".

JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER is R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago.
September/October 2014 1
 
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Regarding Russia's troops in Ukraine. Some Ukrainians have protested at our embassy against the US troops in Ukraine. ;)
 
Montecresto said:
Now Mearsheimer is crazy, lol. John Mearsheimer recognises intrigue when he sees it and isn't apologising for it.

"For Putin, the illegal overthrow of Ukraine’s democratically elected and pro-Russian president—which he rightly labeled a “coup”—was the final straw. He responded by taking Crimea, a pen- insula he feared would host a NATO naval base, and working to desta- bilize Ukraine until it abandoned its efforts to join the West".

"U.S. and European leaders blundered in attempting to turn Ukraine into a Western stronghold on Russia’s border. Now that the consequences have been laid bare, it would be an even greater mistake to continue this misbegotten policy".

JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER is R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago.
September/October 2014 1
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No one in the West tried anything. The Ukrainian people made clear they would rather cast their lot with Europe than with Russia.
 
Jack Hays said:
It's the plain truth of the matter. If this had been a Western plot then the West would have been better prepared. The Ukrainians seek freedom and independence; Putin is an enemy of both.
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Better prepared for what? As pointed out by so many now, including JM, they simply failed to anticipate the importance to Putin. And that was an inexplicable failure. Putin has been clear that a NATO Ukraine is as acceptable to Russia as a communist Cuba was to the US. Russian response to Western intrigue was easily anticipated, if it wasn't, then why is a mystery. It doesn't matter now, Putin backed that cart up and plans on keeping it there.
 
Montecresto said:
Better prepared for what? As pointed out by so many now, including JM, they simply failed to anticipate the importance to Putin. And that was an inexplicable failure. Putin has been clear that a NATO Ukraine is as acceptable to Russia as a communist Cuba was to the US. Russian response to Western intrigue was easily anticipated, if it wasn't, then why is a mystery. It doesn't matter now, Putin backed that cart up and plans on keeping it there.
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There was no Western intrigue, only the desire of the Ukrainians for independence and freedom.
 
Jack Hays said:
There was no Western intrigue, only the desire of the Ukrainians for independence and freedom.
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Oh but there was certainly intrigue. And Western support for a coup that toppled a democratically elected president. That has no place in democracy, and you'd never condone or support it in Israel or here. But I observe such hypocrisy by you routinely.
 
Montecresto said:
Oh but there was certainly intrigue. And Western support for a coup that toppled a democratically elected president. That has no place in democracy, and you'd never condone or support it in Israel or here. But I observe such hypocrisy by you routinely.
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All the West did was stand aside and let the Ukrainian people rise up.
 
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This Ukrainian flag has survived numerous Russian attacks and shellings near the town of Maryinka



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Exhibit in Kyiv marking the 1st anniversary of the Ilovaisk Massacre



Ukraine commemorates anniversary of ‘massacre’ at Battle of Ilovaysk


Ukrainians remember Ilovaisk tragedy, honour victims

With the pro-Russia militia's in eastern Ukraine about to crumble in late August of 2014, Russia injected battalions of Russian military units into the fight. Ukrainian forces at Ilovaisk were soon surrounded and a retreat was negotiated.


Putin himself directed that there be a "humanitarian corridor" of retreat...

Putin calls on pro-Russian rebels to let Ukraine troops leave encirclement

Reuters
August 29, 2014

Russian President Vladimir Putin called on pro-Russian rebels to provide a humanitarian corridor in east Ukraine for encircled Ukrainian government troops to leave the battlefield, the Kremlin said in a statement on Friday.

"I call on the militia forces to open a humanitarian corridor for encircled Ukraine servicemen in order to avoid pointless victims, to allow them leave the fighting area without impediment, join their families..., to provide urgent medical aid to those wounded as a result of the military operation," he said in a statement.
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Putin lied. The negotiated retreat was a trap. While the columns of Ukrainian forces were withdrawing from Ilovaiskaya, Russian and rebel forces opened fire, slaughtering at least 435 and possibly 1,000.



Poroshenko: Ukraine not to abandon occupied territories

The head of state said that Ukraine would not abandon the occupied territories of Donbas. "Someone proposes: let's give this to someone, let's give Ukrainian land, Ukrainian citizens and live without them. I don't accept this and would never accept this. I was elected by people to respect Ukraine's integrity, and I would do my best to return this land to Ukraine," Poroshenko said.
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Merkel Warns Putin That East Ukraine Vote Must Conform to Law

According to the Minsk II Agreement, any elections in eastern Ukraine must proceed according to Ukrainian law. This is what Ms. Merkel is referring to above. The rebels are making plans to hold elections in violation of Ukraine law.



During the past 24 hours, 19 Russian shellings/attacks ... 1 WIA.

Schastye
Butovka (coal mine)
Opytnoye
Trokhizbenka (residential areas)
Kamyanka
Vesele
Novhorodske
Dzerzhinsk
Avdiivka

This is the lowest number in months. Something is up. There is an inherent danger with Putin currently being in a corner -- the danger being that he and his inner circle believe they have only one option and that it to mount a major assault and then ride out the western reaction. He might just go for it. All of his actions over the last six months point to preparing his civil society for just such a rough ride.


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Lenin monument in Zaporizhzhya "dressed" in a traditional Ukrainian embroidered vyshyvanka
 
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Ukrainian producer Viktoria Butenko is nominated for an Emmy award for the CNN report: “Ukraine: Shooting in Independence Square”



Russian propagandist misuses Gaza war photo for Ukraine conflict

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Tweet showing misappropriated Israeli picture of Eliran Fitoussi, used for Russian propaganda purposes



EU needs to step up its game in Ukraine



Professional Russian Army in Ukraine. Database and Visualisation



Who Are The Russian Generals That Ukraine Says Are Fighting In The Donbas?



Ukraine Sees ‘Significant’ Drop in Fighting During Past Few Days


Russian prison authorities have stopped passing mail to POW Nadia Savchenko in the Novocherkassk prison Rostov region. Ukraine and Western officials are compiling a sanctions list of Russians involved in the imprisonment and trials of Nadia Savchenko and Oleg Sentsov.

Andriy Skachkov (call sign “Sam”) of the 2nd Assault Battalion/Donbas Company remains in Russian captivity since Illovaisk (August 2014).

There has been a significant decrease in Russian shelling/attacks the past few days. Remember this pic posted a few pages ago?

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The jaded speculate that Russia will shell a rebel school on September 1 so Russia can send in "peacemaker" troops.


16 Russian shelling/attacks yesterday...

Stanytsia Luhanska
Pisky
Shchastya
Tryokhizbenka
Krymske
Svitlodarsk
Avdiivka
Opytne
Maryinka
Krasnohorivka
Shyrokyne


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A soldier peers over a bullet-damaged shield as servicemen of the Kyiv-1 Ukrainian volunteers battalion take part in training exercises in Kyiv
 
Disappearances in Crimea of individuals opposed to the Russian invasion and occupation:

Euromaidan activists:

  • Ivan Bondarets (born in 1990) disappeared in Simferopol on March 7, 2014
  • Vladislav Vashchuk (born in 1985) disappeared in Simferopol on March 7, 2014
  • Vasily Chernish (born in 1978) disappeared in Sevastopol on March 15, 2014

Missing members of the public initiative “Ukrainian People’s House”:

  • Timur Shaimardanov (disappeared on May 26, 2014)
  • Seyran Zeynedinov (disappeared on May 30, 2014)
  • Leonid Korzh (disappeared on May 22, 2014)

Missing Crimean Tatars:

  • Islyam Djeparov (disappeared on 27 September 2014 on the Simferopol – Feodosia highway)
  • Mukhtar Arislyanov (disappeared in Simferopol on August 27, 2015)
  • Jevdet Islyamov (disappeared on the Simferopol – Feodosia highway on September 27, 2014)
  • Eskender Apselyamov (disappeared in the village of Kalinino, Chervonogvardeysky district on October 3, 2014)

In addition:

  • Fedor Kostenko (father of imprisoned Alexander Kostenko) disappeared March 3, 2015
  • Reshat Ametov, Belyal Bilyalov, and Edem Osmanov – found tortured and killed
  • On 29 August 2015, missing Memet Selimov (born 1986) and Osman Ibragimov (born 1988) were found dead



U.S. Campaign Highlights Plight Of Women ‘Political Prisoners’



Ukrainians Say They Face Torture, Show Trials in Russia


If Russian Soldiers Aren't Dying In Ukraine, Why Did Putin Make Casualty Stats A State Secret?



Could Ukrainian War Do to Russia What Afghan War did to the USSR?



Ukrainian military spokesmen report finding five dead Russian-led militants

Dead for a while. Apparently on a recon mission and tripped a mine. "Bunching" is never a bright idea in a hot zone.



Ukrainian Servicemen Feared Captured by Russian Forces in Crimea

On the border of Kherson/Crimea. Seems 3 UA soldiers went to bathe by a dam. Tire/boot tracks indicate they were abducted.



12 Russian ceasefire violations yesterday (9/6) with mostly small arms and RPGs...

Donetsk airport area
Avdiivka
Maryinka (from Oleksandrivka)
Trudovski
Mariinka
Kirov
Zaitsevo


From sources in Ukraine - DNR/LNR militias have been restructured and are basically now incorporated into the Russian Southern Military District. Putin probably by now realizes that no Ukrainian constitutional changes will come close to approaching his self-serving federalization scheme (i.e. dismemberment via other means). It seems that Putin will settle for a soft-annexation a/k/a "frozen conflict" ala Transdneister. There has been a purge in the rebel ranks - Denis Pushilin (of MMM ponzi-scheme infamy) has replaced Andrey Purgin as speaker of the pseudo-parliament. To ensure compliance, the People's Soviet was occupied by Russian paratroopers. Pushilin and Purgin have different masters in the Kremlin. "Prime Minister" Alexander Zakharchenko was told to toe the new line or else. They're all a collection of thieves/war criminals infighting over power and money.
 
the ukraine 'issue' is pretty cut and dry. putin has been flexing his muscles for awhile trying to re-assert russia on the world stage. he started by crushing Chechnya. Then moved up a bit to taking a slice of Georgia. Then he took Crimea. Now he's working on recovering a large portion of the former USSR's military industrial complex; ukraine. ukraine is not a backwards nation, it is a major industrial and agricultural center, russia cant even make many of their military vehicles without ukranian components, see link below. i'm not going to elaborate further on the pattern, i wonder who's next. you can try to compare it to the US attacking various nations, but we aren't annexing them, russia is actually annexing sovereign nations.


Ukraine crisis: Why a lack of parts has hamstrung Russia's military - BBC News
Military Industrial Complex in Ukraine


i cant fault him for wanting to turn russia into a world power again, however i can fault the 'free world' for letting democracies, one after another, fall to an aggressive 'elected' dictatorship, it all seems very familiar.
 
 
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Demobilized soldiers from the front-line arrive at a train station in Kyiv




Ukraine cease-fire allows time to regroup

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A standard Ukrainian infantry weapon stands positioned next to body armor with a lucky charm in the colors of the Ukrainian flag.
Twelve months into the conflict, all soldiers on front-line duty are now provided with body armor



NATO Chief to Visit Ukraine



Grand Theft Auto and More: The Grim Reality of Life in ‘Donetsk People's Republic’

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Reports leaked by Anonymous International make DNR seem like a scene straight out of the Grand Theft Auto video game

Picking up from the above...

East Ukraine Rebels Arrest Leader Amid Infighting




Human cost of Ukraine crisis in numbers

  • 7,000 have been killed so far
  • 17,000 have been wounded
  • 855 people missing
  • 2.5 million people displaced


If Putin had not stolen Crimea from Ukraine, Crimean draftees would have no chance to die in Syria for Assad. The 5 dead rebel bodies alluded to in yesterday's post were elements of a recon team killed two weeks ago by the 128th UA Brigade. Rebels again tried to recover the bodies yesterday which led to a firefight with - 2 UA KIA/2 WIA and an unknown number of Russian KIA/WIA. This took place between the villages of Bolotennoye and Nikolaevka near Stanytsia Luhanska.


Other Russian 9/7 ceasefire violations:

Maryinka (82-mm mortar damages)
Kirove
Svitlodarsk (water reservoir damaged)
Shchastya
Krasnohorivka
Syze (Spetsnaz attack)
Artemivsk (small arms attack)
Mayorska (small arms attack)


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A demobilized soldier gives a flower to a woman in the train wagon in Kyiv
 
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Sergei (10) lives in a Soviet-era basement shelter in the front-line town of Mariinka below his family’s destroyed apartment. Together with
his brother and parents they are dependent on the Ukrainian Army’s CIMIC Unit for all food and hygiene items while the war continues around them.



Elizabeth Pond: A Useful Stalemate in Ukraine



U.S. sees continued international support for Ukraine: senior official



Nearly 8,000 killed in Ukraine Conflict, U.N. Says

"The major impediments" to peace are the presence of foreign fighters, the flow of sophisticated and heavy weaponry from Russia, and Ukraine's lack of control over its eastern border with Russia, the report said.
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Ukraine fighting at lowest level since conflict broke out

The recent period from mid-May to mid-August 2015 was one of the bloodiest with 105 civilian deaths and 308 civilian injuries. Russia has still not fulfilled her obligations to Minsk II - the removal of all foreign fighters from Ukraine and total Ukrainian control over her borders.


Russian forces in the Donbass have been re-positioning soldiers and replenishing war stocks. 4 Russian violations of the ceasefire yesterday...

Syze (attack on UA defensive positions)
Mariinka (82 mm mortar attack)
Mayorsk (small arms attack)
Avdiivka (small arms/RPG attack)


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Yustynka, daughter of KIA Ukrainian soldier Viktor Gurniak, celebrated Independence Day with her father at the cemetery
Putin's Crimea/Donbass invasions have forever changed the lives of untold thousands of people
 
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