Will Germany's political landscape change tomorrow?

So, tomorrow, there is the state election in the (east) German state of Saxony, and two weeks later, Brandenburg and Thuringia will follow.

These elections might well mark a turning point in German politics: For the first time ever since WW2, a party to the right of the center-right Christian Democrats (Merkel's CDU/CSU) might enter the parliaments and be established as a successful 5th party in our political system (counting the CDU/CSU as one, and after the moderately libertarian FDP is out):


The "Alternative for Germany (AfD)" was formed last year as an economically conservative party in opposition to Merkel's euro policies and her bailouts and credits for unstable European economies such as Greece. The AfD, run by a renomeed economy professor and a former chairman of the German employer organization, instead wanted "no taxpayer money for foreign economies" and a disbandonment of the euro currency. On other issues, the AfD remained vague.

In the federal election September 2013, the AfD scored a success d'estime: With 4.7% of the votes, they almost managed to enter the parliament (5.0% are required).

In the election to the European Parliament in May 2014, the AfD won 7.0% of the votes in Germany, sending several MPs to the EU parliament, who there joined the euroskeptic-conservative faction that also includes the British Tories.

The last weeks saw the AfD building up a clearly more right-leaning profile in the three states named above, with proposals such as closing the borders to Poland and the Czech Republic to "keep crime out", against building mosques, stricter immigration laws and supporting "families with 3 children or more".

The AfD top candidate in Brandenburg Alexander Gauland, a historian and speaker for foreign policy of the federal party, is also a Russia sympathizer: He strictly opposes sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis, supports Russia's actions in eastern Ukraine "because these lands were traditionally Russian" and is skeptic of Germany's pro-Western line post-WW2. But this position is well debated within the AfD, as many less ideological, more economy-oriented members are pro-Western.

Polls see the AfD at between 5% and 7% of the votes, so if they manage to maintain this support in the elections, Merkel will face a new competition -- this time from the right. Perhaps many fellow CDU/CSU members will even blame Merkel for having moved her party so deeply into the center. Maybe Merkel will be inclined to address more right-leaning voters again. That, in turn, might even improve the chances for the center-left again, which Merkel used to successfully keep down with her centrist course.

So will the AfD become a permanent phenomenon in German parliaments? That remains to be seen -- other parties scored a quick success before, but would then be kicked out of the parliaments again by the voters due to in-fights, incompetence and chaotic appearance.


Left to right: AfD chairman Bernd Lucke (economy professor), Hans-Olaf Henkel (former employer association chairman) and Brandenburg top candidate Alexander Gauland (historian)

Well if it changes... it changes.

Tempora mutantur nos et mutantur in illis.
~Roman proverb.

Times change and we must change with them.
Whether that change will have a positive or a negative, I don't know. It certainly seems like a mixed bag for germany, but all the pro-russian stuff you mentioned seems... a bit off-putting to say the least. I wouldn't want such a party to gain grounds in my country if you ask me. Especially now that the situation in Ukraine got another bag of bad news and we still don't know if Russia actually did invade or not. I mean, they didn't roll into Kyiv yet, but we don't know as in, a clear, straight answer, if Russian troops are officially in Ukraine, openly, instead of being openly in ukraine and denying it like it's been the norm thus far.


Do you think the recent statements that Merkel made about social security and other benefits is in fact to appease to them in some fashion? Or was it just you know, business as usual?

Rainman05 said:

Well if it changes... it changes.

Tempora mutantur nos et mutantur in illis.
~Roman proverb.

Times change and we must change with them.
Whether that change will have a positive or a negative, I don't know. It certainly seems like a mixed bag for germany, but all the pro-russian stuff you mentioned seems... a bit off-putting to say the least. I wouldn't want such a party to gain grounds in my country if you ask me. Especially now that the situation in Ukraine got another bag of bad news and we still don't know if Russia actually did invade or not. I mean, they didn't roll into Kyiv yet, but we don't know as in, a clear, straight answer, if Russian troops are officially in Ukraine, openly, instead of being openly in ukraine and denying it like it's been the norm thus far.


Do you think the recent statements that Merkel made about social security and other benefits is in fact to appease to them in some fashion? Or was it just you know, business as usual?

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I'm not sure which exact statement by Merkel you're referring to, but I'm pretty sure it's just business as usual so far. After all, the AfD has not yet entered any state parliaments and the CDU/CSU's strategy has been so far to just ignore them.

In two weeks, that may change ...

German guy said:

I'm not sure which exact statement by Merkel you're referring to, but I'm pretty sure it's just business as usual so far. After all, the AfD has not yet entered any state parliaments and the CDU/CSU's strategy has been so far to just ignore them.

In two weeks, that may change ...

Click to expand...

Merkel

This one from 3 months ago.
And then this one from 3 days ago.
Angela Merkel announces plans to deport EU welfare cheats - Telegraph

About merkels' plan to start deportation and bans on social welfare cheaters.

Dont' get me wrong, I'm all in favor of having better rules and guidelines regarding who can do what in terms of social welfare in europe, social security and benefits should be tied to work requirements and be capped to a certain limit, but I thought too it was business as usual but then you posted this and I wanted to pick your mind on whether there is a connection or w/e. Which you gave

German guy said:

The AfD top candidate in Brandenburg Alexander Gauland, a historian and speaker for foreign policy of the federal party, is also a Russia sympathizer: He strictly opposes sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis, supports Russia's actions in eastern Ukraine "because these lands were traditionally Russian" and is skeptic of Germany's pro-Western line post-WW2. But this position is well debated within the AfD, as many less ideological, more economy-oriented members are pro-Western.

Click to expand...

Rainman05 said:

It certainly seems like a mixed bag for germany, but all the pro-russian stuff you mentioned seems... a bit off-putting to say the least. I wouldn't want such a party to gain grounds in my country if you ask me.

Click to expand...

I don't think it's fair to call Gauland an outright Russian supporter. Here's a translated speech so others can read it as well:

Transcript: Let's start with the obvious. The annexation of the Crimea is a violation of international law act, which is not cured by a dubious referendum without neutral international monitoring.

Up to this point, ranging in common with CDU and SPD. But, my dear friends in the party, a breach of the law always has a history and the legitimacy of an act can be judged differently than its legality. Or how else the Americans to justify their adventure in the Bay of Pigs, the occupation of Grenada, Kosovo and the Iraq war?

And exactly at this point begins a very different perspective. In recent days you could read in German newspapers almost everything up to the statement that Putin was crazy. Before one embarks on such a level, you should take the presented direct and indirect arguments seriously and try to understand an action that supposedly no longer fits in our century.

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He's basically saying Putin and Russia are using 19th century behavior and that we shouldn't stoop down to their level. He then goes on to explain why sanctions on Russia hurts German businesses the most:

Transcript: The alternative for Germany criticized the ban on imports of food from the EU to Russia, with the Russian President Putin can escalate the dispute with the West continue.
"With economic sanctions on the one hand and a ban on imports on the other no one is served. Quite the contrary: These measures are not only wrong, they bring the conflict unnecessarily to a higher level of escalation, rather than to de-escalate, "said the deputy speaker of the alternative for Germany, Alexander Gauland.

"All parties should now urgently return to the negotiating table in order not to inflict more damage for all concerned, but especially for German companies. It may not be in the interest of the Federal Government that German companies have to pay the bill for the unfitness of the parties to the conflict, "said Gauland on. He would call on the federal government not to respond with further sanctions on the Russian import ban, but to lead by example and de-escalating to act.

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Let's give this guy just a little bit of credit. Anyone even half way versed in history knows how horrifically violent Europe has been for thousands of years. We're living in the most peaceful time in human history, and he simply believes that de-escalation is preferable to escalation. If anything he's trying to cool off the situation to ease tensions and avoid war.

I'm not saying he's not a Russian sympathizer, because you might be able to provide more evidence of that, but opposing the sanctions by itself isn't really evidence for that. I also think he might have meant the annexation of Crimea, not Ukraine, is not that big of a deal in the grand scheme of things. I mean, if you look at it tactically, Russia really, really needed that port to the mediterranean. (Not saying it's justified, just that we should try to understand them a bit better)

Here we go: The AfD wins 10.0% of the votes according to current projections, which equals 14 seats in the Saxony parliament.

That's even stronger than polls had suggested.

On public ARD tv, they said most of the AfD voters were former CDU voters, but the AfD also drew some voters from FDP (which failed to re-enter) and socialist Left Party.

The center-right CDU could even ask the AfD to become their junior coalition partner in the next government; CDU Prime Minister Tillich has never excluded this possibility. But it's more likely the CDU is going to choose the center-left SPD, which is chronically weak in Saxony (only ca. 12.5%).

And a final update:

According to the official end result, the AfD has won 9.7% of the votes.

At very least, that's good for one reason: Saxony used to be a neo-Nazi stronghold, the neo-Nazi NPD was present in the Saxony parliament for two terms, from 2004 on. The AfD sucked up some of their protest voters, so the NPD narrowly missed the 5%-hurdle with only 4.98% of the votes and will no longer be represented. That's very bitter for the NPD.

CDU Prime Minister Stanislav Tillich said he will start negotiations for a coalition with both center-left SPD and the Green Party and choose one of them in the end, but not the AfD.


Official result in Saxony 8/31/2014:

Party (lean) -- % of the votes -- gains and losses compared to 2009 -- seats

Christian Democrats (center-right CDU) -- 39.4% -- -0.8% -- 59
Left Party (socialist Linke) -- 18.9% -- -1.7% -- 27
Social Democrats (center-left SPD) -- 12.4% -- +2.0% -- 18
Alternative for Germany (conservative-right populist AfD) -- 9.7% -- +9.7% -- 14
Green Party (progressive-environmentalist B'90/Grüne) -- 5.7% -- -0.7% -- 8

below 5.0% and thus no seats in the parliament:

National Democrats (neo-Nazi NPD) -- 4.9% -- -0.7% -- 0
Free Democrats (libertarian FDP) -- 3.8% -- -6.2% -- 0

all others below 2%.

Here we go:

Last sunday, there were two more state elections in Germany, in Brandenburg and Thuringia. In both states, the AfD entered the parliaments with ease: In Thuringia, the AfD won 10.6% of the votes and in Brandenburg even strong 12.2%(!).

Polls showed that the AfD drew voters from all sides, most notably the center-right CDU, the libertarian FDP (which is about collapsing and was kicked out of these three state parliaments as well), the socialist Left Party and from previous non-voters. Turnout was rather low in all three states, with below or just slightly above 50%, which is pretty bad for German standards.

Of course most mainstream papers and tv programs started debating this new party. Will its success be limited and it will soon vanish again after a couple of years, like several parties (especially on the right) did before? How should Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU react on the new AfD competition from the right? What kind of party is the AfD in the first place -- more an economically conservative party run by pro-business people, a right-populist party or even a "brownish" far-right revisionist party?

If you ask me to make an educated guess, I'd say:

Chances are the party will not vanish again soon, like the Pirate Party (that entered 4 state parliaments in 2011/12, but has collapsed since then), for several reasons:

1) The party addresses a group of voters that is not addressed by any other significant party. Both economically and socially conservative voters make ca. 20% of the German population as many studies show, but had been more or less ignored ever since the CDU/CSU started modernizing under Merkel. (Unlike the Pirates, who are generally social liberals to left-libertarians who might well feel at home among two other established parties.)

2) The AfD has so far successfully managed to go the tightrope walk between right-wing populism while at the same time strictly rejecting neo-Nazism or anti-constitutionalism. All other short-lived right-wing parties failed in the past, because the established parties successfully managed to "play the Nazi card" against them. If they now try this against the AfD, it will not work, IMO. They wouldn't even believe it themselves if they painted it with the Nazi brush.

3) The party has already pretty solid internal structures, and the leadership is dominated by reputable and experienced economic conservatives. That makes it less likely the party will fall apart due to internal struggles.

What kind of party is the AfD?

As far as I can tell, it's both so far -- a party of eurosceptic economic conservatives, of social conservatives and of right-wing populists (the latter dominated the campaigns in the three east German states). Their right-wing populism goes along the lines of what we see in many European countries -- euroscepticism, demands for fewer immigration, for more security (more police on the streets), islam-criticism (no new mosques) and support for traditional family models. But unlike many other populist parties in Europe, the AfD's tone is rather moderate and not shrill, they manage to appear not very hateful but rather respectable in comparison, and rather serious than angry. For example, they proposed the "Canadian model" when it comes to immigration, which limits mass immigration but encourages immigration of highly educated people. In the EU parliament, they refused to join far-right factions, but instead cooperate with the British Tories.

So this party successfully combines elements from two or three wings at the moment, while staying vague on many fields. It remains to be seen which wing will dominate the party in the future, and how or if they'll manage to co-exist. If an open fight breaks out between the right-populists (who also use occassional social populism in favor of state support) and the economic-conservative wing (which wants to free the economy from too many burdens), that would be the biggest threat for the future of that party, IMO.


What does the AfD's success mean for Merkel's center-right CDU/CSU?

In the foreseeable future, it is most unlikely they'd form a coalition with the AfD on national level. That's because the AfD's core topic, euroscepticism, is 180 degree at odds with the CDU/CSU's strong pro-Europeanism. Because of that, it becomes less likely we'll see a truly center-right government again anytime soon -- the CDU/CSU's former coalition partner of the moderately libertarian FDP has more or less collapsed, so the only junior partners for the CDU/CSU are left from the center: The center-left SPD (Merkel's partners 2005-09 and again since 2013) or even the progressive-environmentalist Green Party.

This, however, brings the CDU/CSU in an uncomfortable situation: Shall they try to take a more socially conservative course again, to win back the true conservatives from the AfD? In this case, they'd alienate their potential coalition partners from the left and leave the centrist voters ready for conquest by the left. The CDU/CSU might lose more voters in the center than winning on the right. Or shall they keep their moderate course to make sure they stay in the government? Then they'll likely lose more conservative voters to the AfD.

A possibly less unfortunate course of action, from the side of the CDU/CSU, could be cooperation with the AfD on state and regional level. Why not form "black-blue" CDU/AfD coalitions in federal states? That might "disenchant" the AfD. If the AfD was required to take responsibility, to actually show what they can do, many of their voters are likely going to turn away from the AfD again. Simply because the AfD can promise all kinds of things as long as it's not required to deliver.

This approach worked well in the past, for example when the CDU formed a coalition with the right-populist SCHILL party in Hamburg in 2001. That party had won 20% of the votes, the CDU took them as junior partner, and in the following election, the SCHILL party vanished again with less than 5% of the votes.

Likewise, the center-left SPD has a similar problem with the socialist Left Party as the CDU/CSU now has with the AfD. The SPD formed several coalitions with the Left Party on state level, and in all cases, the Left Party lost a large part of their voters in the following elections.


But no matter if the AfD will be included in coalitions or not -- it's safe to assume that they'll manage to influence German politics with their topics, and several topics many right-leaning voters are concerned about will get more attention than they used to get.