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What can Ukraine do to settle the crisis in the eastern Oblasts

Rainman05

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Initially I wanted to name this thread: How the crisis in Ukraine will end - A Game of Thrones approach ; but when I started writing, by the 2nd paragraph, I figured the title wouldn't match the topic and so I've decided to revamp the whole thing and start again.

So as you know, 2 Oblasts, Kharkiv and Donestsk have been taken over, their regional administrative buildings that is, by pro-russian supporters, some of them armed, who took down the Ukrainian flag and raised the Russian one and called for the independence of the 2 regions. Luhanska is also very much bordering the same situation but nothing has been reported, as far as I've seen, about it there. These protesters who occupied govt buildings in the region called for independence from Ukraine and also set a date of a referendum, 11 May in the case of Kharkiv. So next month.

This is not the first time this has happened. In late february, after the Yanukovich govt fell, the same thing happened, protesters raised the russian flags on govt buildings in eastern ukraine, but for some administrative buildings the flag was replaced back with the Ukranian one, for some, on and off... complicated stuff depdending on the city you're in. Safe to say, a volatile last month. But yesterday, protesters made a coup de grace if you will and at least Kharkiv is now, illegally but officially, moving forward with independence and a referendum.

Police clashed with protesters in Donestsk, again today... we'll see what leads where.

What is the worst possible scenario in this situation? Let's start with worse for Ukraine.
I) Pro-ukranian partisans like the Right Sector move in the respective regions and start causing havoc. If this happens, Putin wins hands down. He'll have reason to enter eastern Ukraine to actually, legitimately this time, protect Russian ethnics and stabilize the region. No more army without markings, legit, full on legitimate entry into the country. Let me put it this way, you'd be wrong to call it occupation in this case. Likely outcome: the 3 regions join Russia and Putin will get the credit. He'll end this story being the hero that eastern europe needs. He would have saved lives, caused stability and uphold the right of self-determination of the people.

II) Ukrainian govt starts Berkrut-style crackdowns on the protesters. Massive fights, people getting injured, maybe even a fatality or two. Outcome? Russia condemns this action to the international community, waits a few days for some other tragedy to happen, it happens, that's cause for intervention... the end result is same as I).

III) Partisan warfare. Nationalists on each side start causing havoc in the region. Hundreds die because pro-russians clas with pro-ukranians. There is speculation in the west that the Ukranian govt is letting the pro-ukraine nationalists fight so they dont get their hands dirty, ukraine is discredited in the eyes of the west... at the same time the west sees Russia as supporting the pro-russian partisans. The region falls into a state of chaos, not a dysfunctional type of chaos, but sufficient to warrant some kind of intervention, both Ukraine and Russia send in the army for "stabilizing" purposes and "humanitarian" reasons, we don't get a war, but we do get a Crimea-style situation where both armed forces are stationed side by side, neither want to leave... both "co-exist" if that's the term you want to use... meanwhile, there's a referendum being planned and sooner or later, the regions join Russia or become independent and nobody wins. Russia is considered an aggressor and a bully. Ukraine is considered corrupt. Everyone loses.

Worst case scenario for Russia?
There is just one really. The economy collapses before it can make a move and this will only happen if strong sanctions and immidiate decisive drastic action is taken by the EU. A war of economic attrition which will bend Russia to it's knees before the Wests' knees give in.

well, there is a second case which may a "loss" in terms of PR but really, what PR does Russia have in the eyes of all decent folk?
And that case is a Crimea 2.0. Soldiers with no markings make their way into the 3 regions and "secure" the territory while regional administrations, now with self-appointed parliaments make a referendum whose result overwhelmingly shows that they want to join Russia. So Russia wins but doesn't get the PR boost as it does in scenario I and II, and basically "enjoys" a second round of fallout with the west, similar to what happened due to Ukraine, only worse.


So this is my analysis.
Russians are great at waiting. I mean they're really, really good at it. And the waiting game wins them the scenarios. It did historically, every time, waiting makes them win. All of them, from the perspective of expansion, they only lose face... and who cares about what the West things as far as a lot of Putins' constituency and sympathisers say and think... The chance for those 3 Oblasts to somehow magically stop being pro-RU is impossible and therefore, it is not presented here.

Convenient date, 11 May. On 25 May is the election day for the Presidential elections in Ukraine which would reconfer legitimacy to the institution of the Presidency and may help reduce the toxicity and the agitation and the radicalism we see today on both sides. The only way it'd be more tongue in cheek is if it would have been placed on 24th of May.
 
If I was Putin I would wait for the Ukrainians to make mistakes. If the violence escalates (without the help of the Russians), then he has the excuse to go in. But I would hold back as long as possible, hence making the justification bigger. A bit like what the west did in Kosovo.

If I was the Ukrainians, then I would set up a referendum in those areas under Russian and international supervision and not attempt to manipulate the results. Make it as open as possible. Only then can they come out as the "good guy", else they just look like the Russians with another name. If they then vote to join Russia.. then so be it. It is what they should have done in the Crimea in the first place instead of trying to bully the Russian minority in the country.
 
If I was Putin I would wait for the Ukrainians to make mistakes. If the violence escalates (without the help of the Russians), then he has the excuse to go in. But I would hold back as long as possible, hence making the justification bigger. A bit like what the west did in Kosovo.

If I was the Ukrainians, then I would set up a referendum in those areas under Russian and international supervision and not attempt to manipulate the results. Make it as open as possible. Only then can they come out as the "good guy", else they just look like the Russians with another name. If they then vote to join Russia.. then so be it. It is what they should have done in the Crimea in the first place instead of trying to bully the Russian minority in the country.

What I said at I).
 
-- What is the worst possible scenario in this situation? Let's start with worse for Ukraine.
I) Pro-ukranian partisans like the Right Sector move in the respective regions and start causing havoc. If this happens, Putin wins hands down. He'll have reason to enter eastern Ukraine to actually, legitimately this time, protect Russian ethnics and stabilize the region. No more army without markings, legit, full on legitimate entry into the country. Let me put it this way, you'd be wrong to call it occupation in this case. Likely outcome: the 3 regions join Russia and Putin will get the credit. He'll end this story being the hero that eastern europe needs. He would have saved lives, caused stability and uphold the right of self-determination of the people.

--snip--

So this is my analysis.
Russians are great at waiting. I mean they're really, really good at it. And the waiting game wins them the scenarios. It did historically, every time, waiting makes them win. All of them, from the perspective of expansion, they only lose face... and who cares about what the West things as far as a lot of Putins' constituency and sympathisers say and think... The chance for those 3 Oblasts to somehow magically stop being pro-RU is impossible and therefore, it is not presented here.

If I were a Ukrainian nationalist who cares about nothing but Ukraine, the first thing I would do is to shove Crimea and the two 'Russian' provinces in the east down the Kremlin's throat. There, try not to choke. In one fell swoop, Ukraine becomes a united country with a clear direction of development.

But if I were a Ukrainian with some degree of sympathy toward actual Russians, Crimean Tatars, and everybody else who lives in the "bad neighborhood", I would go for "part of Ukraine, period". The territory controlled by the Putin's regime is rapidly becoming a truly dark place, reminiscent of everybody-knows-what. The state-controlled "Russian" media (which is also the prime source of information for the Russian-speaking population of the Ukrainian south-east) may have succeeded in generating a public euphoria regarding the Anschluss; after all, the last 23 years were pretty much years of misery; why not try something different?

But a few years will pass, and it will become clear that the new home is the same old home, only worse: the same corruption, the same heavy hand of the State, the same economy ready to fall apart any time now - but all that multiplied by the scary inability to serve the final divorce letter to the totalitarian Communist past, and by the delusions of imperial grandeur (for which the serfs will have to pay, as usual). It will be good to have options - to know that Ukraine had never given up on you.

If I was Putin I would wait for the Ukrainians to make mistakes. If the violence escalates (without the help of the Russians), then he has the excuse to go in. But I would hold back as long as possible, hence making the justification bigger. A bit like what the west did in Kosovo.

If I was the Ukrainians, then I would set up a referendum in those areas under Russian and international supervision and not attempt to manipulate the results. Make it as open as possible. Only then can they come out as the "good guy", else they just look like the Russians with another name. If they then vote to join Russia.. then so be it. It is what they should have done in the Crimea in the first place instead of trying to bully the Russian minority in the country.

Ukraine has to look to the long term, it won't take long as "Cyrylek" posted in another thread for Russians to realise they simply have the same situation by another name. The long game will be won by whichever side can make the remnants of Ukraine / Oblast feel they have a better life with whichever side they have voted for or joined.
 
Ukraine has to look to the long term, it won't take long as "Cyrylek" posted in another thread for Russians to realise they simply have the same situation by another name. The long game will be won by whichever side can make the remnants of Ukraine / Oblast feel they have a better life with whichever side they have voted for or joined.

And if we are going the long game, then at this point in time I would bet on the Russians.
 
What should be done is this:

1. Ukraine sells the Crimea to Russia.
2. Russia guarantees the borders (again)
3. Ukraine drops all charges against the former president of Ukraine
4. Ukraine drops all charges against those people who seized some of the government buildings in eastern Ukraine (they were retaken).
5. Russia recognizes the new government of Ukraine
 
The most important thing they can do is put the wraps on the ultra-nationalists in the government and make sure that Russian-language rights are preserved, as well as granting a level of autonomy to the Eastern provinces. If they continue to go down the path of "no Russians allowed" they'll lose those oblasts one way or another.
 
Initially I wanted to name this thread: How the crisis in Ukraine will end - A Game of Thrones approach ; but when I started writing, by the 2nd paragraph, I figured the title wouldn't match the topic and so I've decided to revamp the whole thing and start again.

So as you know, 2 Oblasts, Kharkiv and Donestsk have been taken over, their regional administrative buildings that is, by pro-russian supporters, some of them armed, who took down the Ukrainian flag and raised the Russian one and called for the independence of the 2 regions. Luhanska is also very much bordering the same situation but nothing has been reported, as far as I've seen, about it there. These protesters who occupied govt buildings in the region called for independence from Ukraine and also set a date of a referendum, 11 May in the case of Kharkiv. So next month.

This is not the first time this has happened. In late february, after the Yanukovich govt fell, the same thing happened, protesters raised the russian flags on govt buildings in eastern ukraine, but for some administrative buildings the flag was replaced back with the Ukranian one, for some, on and off... complicated stuff depdending on the city you're in. Safe to say, a volatile last month. But yesterday, protesters made a coup de grace if you will and at least Kharkiv is now, illegally but officially, moving forward with independence and a referendum.

Police clashed with protesters in Donestsk, again today... we'll see what leads where.

What is the worst possible scenario in this situation? Let's start with worse for Ukraine.
I) Pro-ukranian partisans like the Right Sector move in the respective regions and start causing havoc. If this happens, Putin wins hands down. He'll have reason to enter eastern Ukraine to actually, legitimately this time, protect Russian ethnics and stabilize the region. No more army without markings, legit, full on legitimate entry into the country. Let me put it this way, you'd be wrong to call it occupation in this case. Likely outcome: the 3 regions join Russia and Putin will get the credit. He'll end this story being the hero that eastern europe needs. He would have saved lives, caused stability and uphold the right of self-determination of the people.

II) Ukrainian govt starts Berkrut-style crackdowns on the protesters. Massive fights, people getting injured, maybe even a fatality or two. Outcome? Russia condemns this action to the international community, waits a few days for some other tragedy to happen, it happens, that's cause for intervention... the end result is same as I).

III) Partisan warfare. Nationalists on each side start causing havoc in the region. Hundreds die because pro-russians clas with pro-ukranians. There is speculation in the west that the Ukranian govt is letting the pro-ukraine nationalists fight so they dont get their hands dirty, ukraine is discredited in the eyes of the west... at the same time the west sees Russia as supporting the pro-russian partisans. The region falls into a state of chaos, not a dysfunctional type of chaos, but sufficient to warrant some kind of intervention, both Ukraine and Russia send in the army for "stabilizing" purposes and "humanitarian" reasons, we don't get a war, but we do get a Crimea-style situation where both armed forces are stationed side by side, neither want to leave... both "co-exist" if that's the term you want to use... meanwhile, there's a referendum being planned and sooner or later, the regions join Russia or become independent and nobody wins. Russia is considered an aggressor and a bully. Ukraine is considered corrupt. Everyone loses.

Worst case scenario for Russia?
There is just one really. The economy collapses before it can make a move and this will only happen if strong sanctions and immidiate decisive drastic action is taken by the EU. A war of economic attrition which will bend Russia to it's knees before the Wests' knees give in.

well, there is a second case which may a "loss" in terms of PR but really, what PR does Russia have in the eyes of all decent folk?
And that case is a Crimea 2.0. Soldiers with no markings make their way into the 3 regions and "secure" the territory while regional administrations, now with self-appointed parliaments make a referendum whose result overwhelmingly shows that they want to join Russia. So Russia wins but doesn't get the PR boost as it does in scenario I and II, and basically "enjoys" a second round of fallout with the west, similar to what happened due to Ukraine, only worse.


So this is my analysis.
Russians are great at waiting. I mean they're really, really good at it. And the waiting game wins them the scenarios. It did historically, every time, waiting makes them win. All of them, from the perspective of expansion, they only lose face... and who cares about what the West things as far as a lot of Putins' constituency and sympathisers say and think... The chance for those 3 Oblasts to somehow magically stop being pro-RU is impossible and therefore, it is not presented here.

Convenient date, 11 May. On 25 May is the election day for the Presidential elections in Ukraine which would reconfer legitimacy to the institution of the Presidency and may help reduce the toxicity and the agitation and the radicalism we see today on both sides. The only way it'd be more tongue in cheek is if it would have been placed on 24th of May.

Push for NATO military exercises to be accelerated from July to May and to enlarge them. Then extend an offer for them to stay to guarantee the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Armed with this added security firmer police actions to restore order in the cities in question can be taken.

Absent this? Nothing. They have little control over Russian efforts to provoke conflict and their ample networks of agents and provocateurs. They can only hope that Russia does not decide it desires a pretext for intervention though it seems increasingly likely that this is the eventuality they are building towards as the hang the February 21st Agreement as their baseline over the crisis.
 
What should be done is this:

1. Ukraine sells the Crimea to Russia.
2. Russia guarantees the borders (again)
3. Ukraine drops all charges against the former president of Ukraine
4. Ukraine drops all charges against those people who seized some of the government buildings in eastern Ukraine (they were retaken).
5. Russia recognizes the new government of Ukraine


Why would Russia accept this offer? They gain nothing that they do not already have. It would merely be a Ukrainian acknowledgement of the existing state of affairs while offering concessions to those who will never return to Ukraine anyway. It removes a powerful totem that Russia has and a major tool for creating a pretext for intervention. They have already stated the February 21st Accord as their baseline--which is unacceptable and they know it.
 
If I was Putin I would wait for the Ukrainians to make mistakes. If the violence escalates (without the help of the Russians), then he has the excuse to go in. But I would hold back as long as possible, hence making the justification bigger. A bit like what the west did in Kosovo.

If I was the Ukrainians, then I would set up a referendum in those areas under Russian and international supervision and not attempt to manipulate the results. Make it as open as possible. Only then can they come out as the "good guy", else they just look like the Russians with another name. If they then vote to join Russia.. then so be it. It is what they should have done in the Crimea in the first place instead of trying to bully the Russian minority in the country.

Hey that's a great plan except that if the provinces vote to stay with Ukraine then Russia simply has to declare the whole thing a fraud and their state run media and supports in Ukraine will gladly believe that over the reality.

Also it makes no sense for the Ukrainian government to do it as it invites more mettling by Moscow, who won't sit back and allow a fair election as well as encourages other potential seperatists in the country during a time when it needs stability. And lastly even asking the question "Do you want to join Russia" gives legitmacy to the Russian claims over the region's Russian speakers and plays into Putin's "Pan-Russian speaking" narrative.
 
Ukraine as been pushed into a perpetual county of desperate beggars. Russia stole their natural gas - as well as major agriculture food source. So the future is Russia selling Ukraine its own natural gas and own food - with Ukraine begging the West to loan more and more money to buy their own gas and food from Russia.

If Nike doesn't like paying 37 cents an hour, then can go hire people in Ukraine for 25 cents an hour.
 
Hey that's a great plan except that if the provinces vote to stay with Ukraine then Russia simply has to declare the whole thing a fraud and their state run media and supports in Ukraine will gladly believe that over the reality.

you mean like the western media did to their referendum in Crimea?

Also it makes no sense for the Ukrainian government to do it as it invites more mettling by Moscow, who won't sit back and allow a fair election as well as encourages other potential seperatists in the country during a time when it needs stability. And lastly even asking the question "Do you want to join Russia" gives legitmacy to the Russian claims over the region's Russian speakers and plays into Putin's "Pan-Russian speaking" narrative.

Why would Russia not allow a fair election? There is nothing more powerful than have a free and fair election actually go your way. The west would not be able to complain without showing their own double standard.

At the end of the day, Russia does not want to be where they are not wanted. They also want stable oil and gas prices, and access to world markets. But they can also not stand by and see fellow Russians being abused by other countries. And you can not deny that Ukraine has not tried to hurt their Russian citizens...

Basically it is a mess.
 
Ukraine as been pushed into a perpetual county of desperate beggars. Russia stole their natural gas - as well as major agriculture food source. So the future is Russia selling Ukraine its own natural gas and own food - with Ukraine begging the West to loan more and more money to buy their own gas and food from Russia.

If Nike doesn't like paying 37 cents an hour, then can go hire people in Ukraine for 25 cents an hour.

Eh? how did Russia steal Ukrainian food sources and gas?
 
you mean like the western media did to their referendum in Crimea?



Why would Russia not allow a fair election? There is nothing more powerful than have a free and fair election actually go your way. The west would not be able to complain without showing their own double standard.

At the end of the day, Russia does not want to be where they are not wanted. They also want stable oil and gas prices, and access to world markets. But they can also not stand by and see fellow Russians being abused by other countries. And you can not deny that Ukraine has not tried to hurt their Russian citizens...

Basically it is a mess.

Well the election in Crimea was fraudulent so in that case its accurate, but hypothetically if it were fair and honest then yes that would be exactly what I mean regardless of the election's outcome you can always come up with a narrative as to why its not valid and people will buy it. Going back to Russia and Russia's supporters in Eastern Ukraine, these are people who literally believe that Nazis are in power in Kiev which as you should know carries an especially personal meaning to these people. Its a message that's total bull**** but that's the narrative supported by Russia and its backed media and that's what people believe, reality is side stepped by their perspective.

Russia is in all kinds of places its not wanted, like the Caucuses, in previous years its conquered Central Asia, and its furthering its influence there again, its systematically attacking the Ukrainian government and all levels, local, regional, national. Don't tell me that Russia doesn't go where its not wanted, thats total **** and given their tight control of the state media, which often crosses international borders, the perception of the people that want Russia aren't always based in reality. These people are literally cheering and protesting to be part of a nation which is build to serve a single person and a few hundred oligarchs to enrich them and give them power, the previous leader of Ukraine literally sold his country to be personally enriched then fled the nation to the country he sold it to after he was thrown out.

Russia doesn't want a fair and free election because it would mean nothing, the west would never recognize it as valid and the Russians don't need a fair and free election anyway when they can make an election with whatever outcome they want.

The Ukrainian government, the new one, has made mistakes in regards to its Russian citizens which should be corrected however the idea of "ethnic protection" as a justification for war, annexation, and conquest is bull****
 
Eh? how did Russia steal Ukrainian food sources and gas?

http://www.debatepolitics.com/gener...447-ukraine-reduced-impoverished-beggars.html

It would be no different than if Russia "annexed" Alaska and then sold us Alaskan oil - and "annexed" Kansas and sold us Kansas wheat - that we then borrowed money from China with interest to pay for it.

That is Ukraine's situation now. They will "borrow" money - billions and tens of billions - plus owe Interest from the IMF to buy their own oil and food from (Crimea) Russia - with the borrowed money going to Russia. Ultimately Ukraine's economy will completely collapse and their currency will become worthless. They will have to become sweatshop labor and sharecroppers for Russia.
 
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you mean like the western media did to their referendum in Crimea?



Why would Russia not allow a fair election? There is nothing more powerful than have a free and fair election actually go your way. The west would not be able to complain without showing their own double standard.

At the end of the day, Russia does not want to be where they are not wanted. They also want stable oil and gas prices, and access to world markets. But they can also not stand by and see fellow Russians being abused by other countries. And you can not deny that Ukraine has not tried to hurt their Russian citizens...

Basically it is a mess.

That is as naïve a message as it gets. 10,000,000,000,000 cubic feet of natural gas in Crimea. A huge natural resources and agricultural source. And you say "NO, Russia wouldn't want that!" that is absurd.

There was no "election." Russia provided the ballots already marked and declared a 95% victory by 54% "ethnic" Russians - when it known there have been two prior elections on the subject and neither were 95%.

It is a lie that Ukraine was trying to "hurt Russian citizens."
 
Worst case scenario for Russia?
There is just one really. The economy collapses before it can make a move and this will only happen if strong sanctions and immidiate decisive drastic action is taken by the EU. A war of economic attrition which will bend Russia to it's knees before the Wests' knees give in.

Ugh, I really get tired of you pushing this nonsense as though it were an actual possibility. The amount of demonstrably undeserved blind belief you have in the economic strength of the EU is mind-boggling. You fancy the EU to be a monocled trainer bringing its poodle to heel and at worse having the yappy beast nip your ankles, never realizing that what you are encouraging your people to do is more like trying to stiff your bookie to keep him from breaking your legs. It isn't gonna work. Only paying the bookie keeps him from breaking your legs. Europe's leadership knows full well they can't go all-out after Russia's economy. Were Russia to cut off Europe's oil and gas it would drive market prices through the roof and suddenly Moscow would be netting huge profits on its sales of oil and gas to Asia. More than that, Russia has a veritable commodities empire upon which European industry strongly depends. You wanna talk collapse? See what happens to the economy of a country that has lost nearly 100% of its oil and a quarter of its electricity or more. We have not seen anything like that happen before and far smaller losses have been calamitous. Add on to that a sudden scarcity of various industrial metals and minerals traditionally imported from Russia and you have the makings of a severe depression. People nowadays are so obsessed with financial crises and statistics in the West that we have forgotten the importance of the most basic fundamentals.

Convenient date, 11 May. On 25 May is the election day for the Presidential elections in Ukraine which would reconfer legitimacy to the institution of the Presidency and may help reduce the toxicity and the agitation and the radicalism we see today on both sides. The only way it'd be more tongue in cheek is if it would have been placed on 24th of May.

It will not reconfer legitimacy as the present environment is not conducive to a free and fair election, no matter how you look at it.
 
Initially I wanted to name this thread: How the crisis in Ukraine will end - A Game of Thrones approach ; but when I started writing, by the 2nd paragraph, I figured the title wouldn't match the topic and so I've decided to revamp the whole thing and start again.

So as you know, 2 Oblasts, Kharkiv and Donestsk have been taken over, their regional administrative buildings that is, by pro-russian supporters, some of them armed, who took down the Ukrainian flag and raised the Russian one and called for the independence of the 2 regions. Luhanska is also very much bordering the same situation but nothing has been reported, as far as I've seen, about it there. These protesters who occupied govt buildings in the region called for independence from Ukraine and also set a date of a referendum, 11 May in the case of Kharkiv. So next month.

This is not the first time this has happened. In late february, after the Yanukovich govt fell, the same thing happened, protesters raised the russian flags on govt buildings in eastern ukraine, but for some administrative buildings the flag was replaced back with the Ukranian one, for some, on and off... complicated stuff depdending on the city you're in. Safe to say, a volatile last month. But yesterday, protesters made a coup de grace if you will and at least Kharkiv is now, illegally but officially, moving forward with independence and a referendum.

Police clashed with protesters in Donestsk, again today... we'll see what leads where.

What is the worst possible scenario in this situation? Let's start with worse for Ukraine.
I) Pro-ukranian partisans like the Right Sector move in the respective regions and start causing havoc. If this happens, Putin wins hands down. He'll have reason to enter eastern Ukraine to actually, legitimately this time, protect Russian ethnics and stabilize the region. No more army without markings, legit, full on legitimate entry into the country. Let me put it this way, you'd be wrong to call it occupation in this case. Likely outcome: the 3 regions join Russia and Putin will get the credit. He'll end this story being the hero that eastern europe needs. He would have saved lives, caused stability and uphold the right of self-determination of the people.

II) Ukrainian govt starts Berkrut-style crackdowns on the protesters. Massive fights, people getting injured, maybe even a fatality or two. Outcome? Russia condemns this action to the international community, waits a few days for some other tragedy to happen, it happens, that's cause for intervention... the end result is same as I).

III) Partisan warfare. Nationalists on each side start causing havoc in the region. Hundreds die because pro-russians clas with pro-ukranians. There is speculation in the west that the Ukranian govt is letting the pro-ukraine nationalists fight so they dont get their hands dirty, ukraine is discredited in the eyes of the west... at the same time the west sees Russia as supporting the pro-russian partisans. The region falls into a state of chaos, not a dysfunctional type of chaos, but sufficient to warrant some kind of intervention, both Ukraine and Russia send in the army for "stabilizing" purposes and "humanitarian" reasons, we don't get a war, but we do get a Crimea-style situation where both armed forces are stationed side by side, neither want to leave... both "co-exist" if that's the term you want to use... meanwhile, there's a referendum being planned and sooner or later, the regions join Russia or become independent and nobody wins. Russia is considered an aggressor and a bully. Ukraine is considered corrupt. Everyone loses.

Worst case scenario for Russia?
There is just one really. The economy collapses before it can make a move and this will only happen if strong sanctions and immidiate decisive drastic action is taken by the EU. A war of economic attrition which will bend Russia to it's knees before the Wests' knees give in.

well, there is a second case which may a "loss" in terms of PR but really, what PR does Russia have in the eyes of all decent folk?
And that case is a Crimea 2.0. Soldiers with no markings make their way into the 3 regions and "secure" the territory while regional administrations, now with self-appointed parliaments make a referendum whose result overwhelmingly shows that they want to join Russia. So Russia wins but doesn't get the PR boost as it does in scenario I and II, and basically "enjoys" a second round of fallout with the west, similar to what happened due to Ukraine, only worse.


So this is my analysis.
Russians are great at waiting. I mean they're really, really good at it. And the waiting game wins them the scenarios. It did historically, every time, waiting makes them win. All of them, from the perspective of expansion, they only lose face... and who cares about what the West things as far as a lot of Putins' constituency and sympathisers say and think... The chance for those 3 Oblasts to somehow magically stop being pro-RU is impossible and therefore, it is not presented here.

Convenient date, 11 May. On 25 May is the election day for the Presidential elections in Ukraine which would reconfer legitimacy to the institution of the Presidency and may help reduce the toxicity and the agitation and the radicalism we see today on both sides. The only way it'd be more tongue in cheek is if it would have been placed on 24th of May.

If they want to settle things down, they can call in the United Nations to plan and supervise a referendum.
 
http://www.debatepolitics.com/gener...447-ukraine-reduced-impoverished-beggars.html

It would be no different than if Russia "annexed" Alaska and then sold us Alaskan oil - and "annexed" Kansas and sold us Kansas wheat - that we then borrowed money from China with interest to pay for it.

That is Ukraine's situation now. They will "borrow" money - billions and tens of billions - plus owe Interest from the IMF to buy their own oil and food from (Crimea) Russia - with the borrowed money going to Russia. Ultimately Ukraine's economy will completely collapse and their currency will become worthless. They will have to become sweatshop labor and sharecroppers for Russia.

You do know that Ukraine does not have gas right and the land that is needed make the food you claim the Russians stole.. is still there? It is lack of investment and corruption over 20 years that is the problem in Ukraine and on this the Russians have very little blame.
 
That is as naïve a message as it gets. 10,000,000,000,000 cubic feet of natural gas in Crimea. A huge natural resources and agricultural source. And you say "NO, Russia wouldn't want that!" that is absurd.

Which was always under Russian control, just as Crimea was.

There was no "election." Russia provided the ballots already marked and declared a 95% victory by 54% "ethnic" Russians - when it known there have been two prior elections on the subject and neither were 95%.

Yes there was an election, which was boycotted by the Ukrainians and Tartars. Hence the yes vote was higher than it would under perfect conditions have been. You are denying previous elections as well, where a huge majority voted for the pro-Russian presidential candidates, and the fact that the local parliament is dominated by pro-Russian politicians even before the crisis.

It is a lie that Ukraine was trying to "hurt Russian citizens."

Where did I say "Russian citizens"? I said Russians, as in the ethnicity/group, not citizen. And they have been abused or attempted abused. The whole mess started basically when Yanokovich refused to sign a new law removing local rights from Russian speaking areas of the Ukraine. They even tried to ban Russian in schools and public life for **** sake.
 
Well the election in Crimea was fraudulent so in that case its accurate, but hypothetically if it were fair and honest then yes that would be exactly what I mean regardless of the election's outcome you can always come up with a narrative as to why its not valid and people will buy it. Going back to Russia and Russia's supporters in Eastern Ukraine, these are people who literally believe that Nazis are in power in Kiev which as you should know carries an especially personal meaning to these people. Its a message that's total bull**** but that's the narrative supported by Russia and its backed media and that's what people believe, reality is side stepped by their perspective.

Russia is in all kinds of places its not wanted, like the Caucuses, in previous years its conquered Central Asia, and its furthering its influence there again, its systematically attacking the Ukrainian government and all levels, local, regional, national. Don't tell me that Russia doesn't go where its not wanted, thats total **** and given their tight control of the state media, which often crosses international borders, the perception of the people that want Russia aren't always based in reality. These people are literally cheering and protesting to be part of a nation which is build to serve a single person and a few hundred oligarchs to enrich them and give them power, the previous leader of Ukraine literally sold his country to be personally enriched then fled the nation to the country he sold it to after he was thrown out.

Russia doesn't want a fair and free election because it would mean nothing, the west would never recognize it as valid and the Russians don't need a fair and free election anyway when they can make an election with whatever outcome they want.

The Ukrainian government, the new one, has made mistakes in regards to its Russian citizens which should be corrected however the idea of "ethnic protection" as a justification for war, annexation, and conquest is bull****

As I have said many times, the referendum in Crimea might have been iffy, but the result was not. Even if it was a totally free and fair referendum, the result would have been the same. The animosity between ethnic Russians and the regime/political elite in Kiev is massive and has been building up over decades.. largely thanks to the political elite in Kiev trying to take away rights from Russians.
 
Ukraine as been pushed into a perpetual county of desperate beggars. Russia stole their natural gas - as well as major agriculture food source. So the future is Russia selling Ukraine its own natural gas and own food - with Ukraine begging the West to loan more and more money to buy their own gas and food from Russia.

If Nike doesn't like paying 37 cents an hour, then can go hire people in Ukraine for 25 cents an hour.

This is not helping.
 
If they want to settle things down, they can call in the United Nations to plan and supervise a referendum.

Or the OSCE, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
 
Or the OSCE, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

That would be almost as good in my opinion. In general I would have liked it taken to the UN to establish a procedure and precedence, however. We need a global guarantor of the security of populations and I think that requires a solution at the top international level.
 
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