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Thread: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

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    Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    A new paper in Energy and Environment by Pat Frank casts doubt on the accuracy of the global surface temperature data network. The integrity and accuracy of surface temperature stations has never been fully taken into account in papers discussing climate change.

    Anthony Watts was the first to look at the potential problem when he looked at the possible influence of the change from white wash to paint on cotton shelter stations. His work evolved into a full documentation of all of the USHCN climate stations in the U.S. to determine if they met NOAA siting standards. 69% of the stations have a poor siting rating based on NOAA's own requirements.

    Steve McIntyre then looked into changes in the measurement of sea temperatures. He found discrepancies in the change from measuring sea temperature by the use of canvas buckets to measurement by sensors in engine cooling systems.

    Frank's paper establishes the uncertainty or noise in the temperature data. He determined that there is a 0.46 degrees C uncertainty in the data. Following is a graph of the temperature record with Frank's uncertainty shown in gray.



    Frank determines:

    The 0.46 C lower limit of uncertainty shows that between 1880 and 2000, the
    trend in averaged global surface air temperature anomalies is statistically
    indistinguishable from 0 C at the 1σ level. One cannot, therefore, avoid the conclusion
    that it is presently impossible to quantify the warming trend in global climate since
    1880.
    In other words, the amount of reported temperature increase is within the margin of error.

    http://meteo.lcd.lu/globalwarming/Fr...ature_2010.pdf

    The other issue is the number of temperature stations. Thousands of stations have been abandoned since 1990. As the number of stations declines, the reported global temperature has risen.

    Is there a connection???


    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





  2. #2
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    Re: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    Hey, it's talking point #53, dropped stations introducing a warming bias!

    The dropped stations actually show more warming than the ones that were kept. Dropping them actually introduced a cooling bias. (although not much of one)
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    Re: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Hey, it's talking point #53, dropped stations introducing a warming bias!

    The dropped stations actually show more warming than the ones that were kept. Dropping them actually introduced a cooling bias. (although not much of one)
    A. I see you didn't even bother to address the main point of this thread. Good job!!

    B. Where did I claim that the massive drop in stations had anything to do with the "reported" rise in temps. I simply said "Is there a connection??"

    C. I'm assuming you have some type of proof of your claim regarding the stations ??? As you and your ilk often require, a peer reviewed paper by a noted climatologist in a recognized journal would be nice.

    You do know that the vast majority of dropped stations were in the old Soviet Union don't you ???

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    A. I see you didn't even bother to address the main point of this thread. Good job!!

    B. Where did I claim that the massive drop in stations had anything to do with the "reported" rise in temps. I simply said "Is there a connection??"

    C. I'm assuming you have some type of proof of your claim regarding the stations ??? As you and your ilk often require, a peer reviewed paper by a noted climatologist in a recognized journal would be nice.

    You do know that the vast majority of dropped stations were in the old Soviet Union don't you ???
    Clear Climate Code Blog Archive The 1990s station dropout does not have a warming effect
    Global Update | Open Mind
    The Blackboard A simple model for spatially-weighted temp analysis

    Multiple independent groups looked at this claim. Oh, I'm sorry, you didn't make the claim, you were just asking questions.

    As for Anthony Watts, his accusations about the climate network have been similarly disproven:
    http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/u...e-etal2010.pdf
    The NOAA took only the sites that Watts himself listed as good, and reran the data with just those stations and found an identical temperature trend. (in fact, once again the "poor" stations introduce a very small cooling bias instead of a warming bias!)

    The surface temperature record matches the satellite records and various temperature proxies. Calculating statistical uncertainties is way above my math skills.
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    Re: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Clear Climate Code Blog Archive The 1990s station dropout does not have a warming effect
    Global Update | Open Mind
    The Blackboard A simple model for spatially-weighted temp analysis

    Multiple independent groups looked at this claim. Oh, I'm sorry, you didn't make the claim, you were just asking questions.

    As for Anthony Watts, his accusations about the climate network have been similarly disproven:
    http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/u...e-etal2010.pdf
    The NOAA took only the sites that Watts himself listed as good, and reran the data with just those stations and found an identical temperature trend. (in fact, once again the "poor" stations introduce a very small cooling bias instead of a warming bias!)

    The surface temperature record matches the satellite records and various temperature proxies. Calculating statistical uncertainties is way above my math skills.
    Blogs ???? Next time I want to dispute one of your many inaccuracies, I'll simply quote a blog posting. When I do, I don't expect a peep about it.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    As to your claim regarding Watt's project, the NCDC study was based on data that had not been checked for quality control and when only 43% of the stations had been inspected.

    Hardly a refutation of the entire surface station project.

    Still no comment on the subject of this thread ??? What's wrong, nothing on it at Real Climate yet or any of the other alarmists blogs you like to quote as scientific fact ??

    I post peer reviewed papers by scientists and you post anonymous blog postings. Sad.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    Blogs ???? Next time I want to dispute one of your many inaccuracies, I'll simply quote a blog posting. When I do, I don't expect a peep about it.
    Watts is a blogger.

    edit: And you had no real evidence that the dropped stations introduce a bias in the first place.
    Last edited by Deuce; 02-01-11 at 01:50 PM.
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    Re: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    Watts is a blogger.
    You keep forgetting that the subject of this thread is a peer reviewed paper in a scientific journal, but you'd like to ignore that "inconvenient" fact wouldn't you?

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    You keep forgetting that the subject of this thread is a peer reviewed paper in a scientific journal, but you'd like to ignore that "inconvenient" fact wouldn't you?
    The blogs I posted were not responding to the paper you posted. They were responding to your claim about dropped stations. Pay attention.
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  10. #10
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    Re: Unprecedented Warming ?? Maybe, Maybe Not

    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    The blogs I posted were not responding to the paper you posted. They were responding to your claim about dropped stations. Pay attention.
    Exactly. Discuss the main topic of the thread.... if you can.

    Until you come with some SCIENTIFIC confirmation of your claims regarding the dropped stations, that topic is closed.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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