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Sea level rise?

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So 4 new papers out saying that an AGW signal cannot be detected in sea level raise.
However, by studying “sea level spatial trend patterns in the tropical Pacific and attempting to eliminate signal corresponding to the main internal climate mode, we show that the remaining residual sea level trend pattern does not correspond to externally forced anthropogenic sea level signal.”
Four Studies Find ?No Observable Sea-Level Effect? From Man-Made Global Warming
 
On a different forum I recently worked out the impact of a 1mm rise in sea level on the day length. I think it was 2.6 thousanths of a second per year.

Whilst this is very low in hunman terms the effect of a 180mm rise over the last century would be very strong compared to the accuracy of atomic clocks.

There appears to be no such change in day length. Odd that. Almost like there has not been a sea level rise and the numbers from tidal guages reflect the different ways we now gather that data rather than the real change in the distrbution of the earth's mass.
 
Didn't some blow hard predict that by this time Miami was going to be under 12 feet of sea water?

Didn't some other blow hard predict that Polar bears would be extinct by now?

So many predictions, and so many failed to come true. Makes one legitimately question the veracity of all of these dire predictions.
 
So 4 new papers out saying that an AGW signal cannot be detected in sea level raise.

Four Studies Find ?No Observable Sea-Level Effect? From Man-Made Global Warming

Yeah, 'cause the sea level rises all on its own, by magic, y'know! And cruise liners are able to travel the northwest passage because the ice melted by magic, too. And the small island nations that are slowly getting flooded out of existence because of the rise of the sea level, that's magic, too!

Yes, there will be scientists who deny global warming...just as there are scientists who deny general relativity. But when the physical effects of the planet warming are plain to see for all, it's simple idiocy to try to deny it.
 
Yeah, 'cause the sea level rises all on its own, by magic, y'know! And cruise liners are able to travel the northwest passage because the ice melted by magic, too. And the small island nations that are slowly getting flooded out of existence because of the rise of the sea level, that's magic, too!

Yes, there will be scientists who deny global warming...just as there are scientists who deny general relativity. But when the physical effects of the planet warming are plain to see for all, it's simple idiocy to try to deny it.

And these island nations are? Did Guam finally capsize? :shock:
 
Didn't some blow hard predict that by this time Miami was going to be under 12 feet of sea water?

Didn't some other blow hard predict that Polar bears would be extinct by now?

So many predictions, and so many failed to come true. Makes one legitimately question the veracity of all of these dire predictions.

The overwhelming majority of scientists NEVER said that Miami was going to be under 12 feet of water "by this time". Just because "some blow hard" makes a wild prediction, such does not disprove the obvious, that the seas ARE getting warmer, that the ice caps (particularly the northern ice cap) ARE melting, that Greenland's ice sheet is melting (at even faster rates than first predicted).

Y'all have been taught for so long that if a liberal believes it, it must be wrong. That fact in and of itself is why most of America's conservatives - in contrast with most conservatives throughout the rest of the world - deny AGW. You MUST deny AGW, because it would be unthinkable to agree with liberals in any major issue.
 
And these island nations are? Did Guam finally capsize? :shock:

Not only are you obviously not paying attention to what goes on in the world, you're not even curious enough to Google around to see if what other people say is true.

In other words, instead of actually researching, you're expecting us to spoon-feed you what you should already know.

Okay, so here - have a few spoonfuls.

Weather.com - the nine most endangered islands in the world

Five Pacific islands lost to rising seas thanks to climate change

Pacific islands sinking thanks to climate change

The Marshall Islands are disappearing

But be sure to ignore all the above, because you know - as you've been told all your life - that everything liberals believe is wrong...and so if liberals agree with what the scientists are saying, the scientists must be wrong, too! You've been carefully taught that it's impossible for liberals to be right about anything ever, so you MUST deny AGW, even though all the liberals are doing is agreeing with the worldwide scientific community.
 
The overwhelming majority of scientists NEVER said that Miami was going to be under 12 feet of water "by this time". Just because "some blow hard" makes a wild prediction, such does not disprove the obvious, that the seas ARE getting warmer, that the ice caps (particularly the northern ice cap) ARE melting, that Greenland's ice sheet is melting (at even faster rates than first predicted).

Y'all have been taught for so long that if a liberal believes it, it must be wrong. That fact in and of itself is why most of America's conservatives - in contrast with most conservatives throughout the rest of the world - deny AGW. You MUST deny AGW, because it would be unthinkable to agree with liberals in any major issue.

I didn't deny anything, I question the veracity of the science, a reasonable thing to do.
I also observe that the climate is a never static thing, it is constantly changing, as ample scientific evidence would prove.

Given that we are still coming out of an Ice Age which ended some 10,000 years ago, is is not reasonable that the climate would be getting warmer?

Anyway, there was a period in the Earth's history in which there were no ice caps at the poles at all, in fact there were dinosaurs and ferns growing there, according to fossil evidence (in fact both covered the entire planet). Also in this evidence was that the temperatures and CO2 were higher then than it is even now.

If you really are worried about green house gasses, then you'd have to concede that methane is about 20 times the green house gas impact of CO2 (actually that's a fact). Also a fact is that the greatest source of methane is animal husbandry, specifically beef cattle. You gonna mandate fart collectors for all the cattle?

Lastly, there is another not often discussed source of green house gasses: Human population itself. With each exhale, more CO2 is emitted into the atmosphere. The human population has double in the last what? 15 / 20 years? Really any surprise that there's more CO2 in the air?

Agree or not, or agree to disagree, this science of climate change, and the 'solutions' that it keeps proposes, also keeps missing these significant 'other' factors, the uncomfortable and possibly politically incorrect, ones to discuss, and it's kinda hard to take it more seriously until it does so on a regular basis.
 
Yeah, 'cause the sea level rises all on its own, by magic, y'know! And cruise liners are able to travel the northwest passage because the ice melted by magic, too. And the small island nations that are slowly getting flooded out of existence because of the rise of the sea level, that's magic, too!

Yes, there will be scientists who deny global warming...just as there are scientists who deny general relativity. But when the physical effects of the planet warming are plain to see for all, it's simple idiocy to try to deny it.

And a research ship had to be rescued from ice.
 
Yeah, 'cause the sea level rises all on its own, by magic, y'know! And cruise liners are able to travel the northwest passage because the ice melted by magic, too. And the small island nations that are slowly getting flooded out of existence because of the rise of the sea level, that's magic, too!

Yes, there will be scientists who deny global warming...just as there are scientists who deny general relativity. But when the physical effects of the planet warming are plain to see for all, it's simple idiocy to try to deny it.
The Sea level has been raising for thousands of years, the rate has not changed much in the last few hundred.
 
I didn't deny anything, I question the veracity of the science, a reasonable thing to do.
I also observe that the climate is a never static thing, it is constantly changing, as ample scientific evidence would prove.

Given that we are still coming out of an Ice Age which ended some 10,000 years ago, is is not reasonable that the climate would be getting warmer?

Anyway, there was a period in the Earth's history in which there were no ice caps at the poles at all, in fact there were dinosaurs and ferns growing there, according to fossil evidence (in fact both covered the entire planet). Also in this evidence was that the temperatures and CO2 were higher then than it is even now.

That's the first big mistake of AGW deniers - they point to earlier such times when the planet was hotter than it is now, and use that to claim that it must be part of a natural cycle...

...and that's flatly wrong. EVERY great change in our atmosphere and in our planet's temperature has had an identifiable cause, whether it was volcanism or an asteroid strike or other causes...and not a single one of those other causes applies with the recent spike in global temperatures - and remember, a spike that occurs over several decades is a very sudden spike indeed when it comes to geologic time.

If you really are worried about green house gasses, then you'd have to concede that methane is about 20 times the green house gas impact of CO2 (actually that's a fact). Also a fact is that the greatest source of methane is animal husbandry, specifically beef cattle. You gonna mandate fart collectors for all the cattle?

First off, being a lover of BBQ, I'm a meat eater - but being aware of both climate change, and of the growing indication that animals are much more aware than we ever gave them credit for, I'm very much looking forward to the day when we have affordable vat-grown meat.

But for all the methane from cow farts (which is more due to the corn and grain they're fed - grass-fed cattle don't fart nearly as much), this is a relative drop in the bucket compared to all the vehicles, planes, factories, ships, and other sources of CO2 around the world...all of which comprise the metaphorical 800 lb. gorilla in the center of the room.

Lastly, there is another not often discussed source of green house gasses: Human population itself. With each exhale, more CO2 is emitted into the atmosphere. The human population has double in the last what? 15 / 20 years? Really any surprise that there's more CO2 in the air?

That's the wrong comparison. Why? Because for all the humans that live today, we've got many millions fewer bison, buffalo, wildebeest, and just about every other herd animal that's ever existed...all part of what's being called the "sixth mass extinction". There might be a lot more humans, but there's apparently a LOT less of a total animal biomass...which means less CO2 output in the aggregate...but our CO2 level is still rising. Why? Look in your garage.

Agree or not, or agree to disagree, this science of climate change, and the 'solutions' that it keeps proposes, also keeps missing these significant 'other' factors, the uncomfortable and possibly politically incorrect, ones to discuss, and it's kinda hard to take it more seriously until it does so on a regular basis.

There are other significant groups around the world that deny AGW...but they're relatively few and far between. It's only in America that it's truly a major political issue - because in most other nations (with the possible exception of Australia), the issue is mostly considered as settled and proven, and the only real discussion is not whether or not AGW is true, but what can or should be done about it without adversely affecting the nation's economy. Unfortunately, too many people seem to think that what other nations believe or don't believe is of no consequence...as if global warming is only something that would affect other nations, and not us.
 
The Sea level has been raising for thousands of years, the rate has not changed much in the last few hundred.

Look at the references in #7 - are you going to claim that the islands that are disappearing due to rising waters were somehow special in that the world's oceans have risen everywhere but where those islands had been for thousands of years?
 
Look at the references in #7 - are you going to claim that the islands that are disappearing due to rising waters were somehow special in that the world's oceans have risen everywhere but where those islands had been for thousands of years?
The sea levels have been raising and will continue to rise, only a few places have seen any acceleration,
and much of that is from subsidence.
But please do not believe me, check with NOAA.
Sea Level Trends - NOAA Tides and Currents
 
I didn't deny anything, I question the veracity of the science, a reasonable thing to do.
I also observe that the climate is a never static thing, it is constantly changing, as ample scientific evidence would prove.

Given that we are still coming out of an Ice Age which ended some 10,000 years ago, is is not reasonable that the climate would be getting warmer?

Anyway, there was a period in the Earth's history in which there were no ice caps at the poles at all, in fact there were dinosaurs and ferns growing there, according to fossil evidence (in fact both covered the entire planet). Also in this evidence was that the temperatures and CO2 were higher then than it is even now.

If you really are worried about green house gasses, then you'd have to concede that methane is about 20 times the green house gas impact of CO2 (actually that's a fact). Also a fact is that the greatest source of methane is animal husbandry, specifically beef cattle. You gonna mandate fart collectors for all the cattle?

Lastly, there is another not often discussed source of green house gasses: Human population itself. With each exhale, more CO2 is emitted into the atmosphere. The human population has double in the last what? 15 / 20 years? Really any surprise that there's more CO2 in the air?

Agree or not, or agree to disagree, this science of climate change, and the 'solutions' that it keeps proposes, also keeps missing these significant 'other' factors, the uncomfortable and possibly politically incorrect, ones to discuss, and it's kinda hard to take it more seriously until it does so on a regular basis.

It always amazes me when a normally intelligent person loses all of it because of partisanship. You actually are equating exhaled CO2 as a source of AGW? Do you not even understand the distinction between fossil carbon that has been removed from the ecosystem for millions of years and a person breathing? No amount of humans breathing can raise the level of CO2 in the ecosystem only the release of fossil carbon can do that.

Last year, all the world's nations combined pumped nearly 38.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide into the air from the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil, according to new international calculations on global emissions published Sunday in the journal Nature Climate Change. That's about a billion tons more than the previous year.
The total amounts to more than 2.4 million pounds of carbon dioxide released into the air every second.

Carbon dioxide emissions rise to 2.4 million pounds per second - CBS News
 
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The Sea level has been raising for thousands of years, the rate has not changed much in the last few hundred.

I didn't know the Roman Legions used SUVs....
 
Not only are you obviously not paying attention to what goes on in the world, you're not even curious enough to Google around to see if what other people say is true.

In other words, instead of actually researching, you're expecting us to spoon-feed you what you should already know.

Okay, so here - have a few spoonfuls.

Weather.com - the nine most endangered islands in the world

Five Pacific islands lost to rising seas thanks to climate change

Pacific islands sinking thanks to climate change

The Marshall Islands are disappearing

But be sure to ignore all the above, because you know - as you've been told all your life - that everything liberals believe is wrong...and so if liberals agree with what the scientists are saying, the scientists must be wrong, too! You've been carefully taught that it's impossible for liberals to be right about anything ever, so you MUST deny AGW, even though all the liberals are doing is agreeing with the worldwide scientific community.

Oh, so Guam didn't capsize. ThankGod. Whew!
 
That's the first big mistake of AGW deniers - they point to earlier such times when the planet was hotter than it is now, and use that to claim that it must be part of a natural cycle...

...and that's flatly wrong. EVERY great change in our atmosphere and in our planet's temperature has had an identifiable cause, whether it was volcanism or an asteroid strike or other causes...and not a single one of those other causes applies with the recent spike in global temperatures - and remember, a spike that occurs over several decades is a very sudden spike indeed when it comes to geologic time.

While true, several decades is meaningless in geologic time. However, I tend to disagree that the Earth's climate system is so well knows as to be able to attribute a cause to every change in our atmosphere and in our planet's temperature. Heck, we don't really know why ice ages happen.

The causes of ice ages are not fully understood for either the large-scale ice age periods or the smaller ebb and flow of glacial–interglacial periods within an ice age. The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years) changes in the earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles, the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents, variations in solar output, the orbital dynamics of the Earth–Moon system, the impact of relatively large meteorites and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes.[SUP][41][/SUP][SUP][citation needed][/SUP]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ice_age#Causes_of_ice_ages

Suffice it to say that there are many other possible causes of the warming climate many of which we are completely powerless to influence, much less able to contribute to. Are all of these possible sources also considered?

First off, being a lover of BBQ, I'm a meat eater - but being aware of both climate change, and of the growing indication that animals are much more aware than we ever gave them credit for, I'm very much looking forward to the day when we have affordable vat-grown meat.

Vat grown meat? Really? Errr. Who's going to buy and eat that? Heck, we can't even get people to eat GMOs. Vat grown meat? I don't think that's going to get the market traction you might hope that it will.

But for all the methane from cow farts (which is more due to the corn and grain they're fed - grass-fed cattle don't fart nearly as much),
Reference?
this is a relative drop in the bucket compared to all the vehicles, planes, factories, ships, and other sources of CO2 around the world...all of which comprise the metaphorical 800 lb. gorilla in the center of the room.

Even at a 20:1 ratio? Hmm. I suppose you're right on that one.

That's the wrong comparison. Why? Because for all the humans that live today, we've got many millions fewer bison, buffalo, wildebeest, and just about every other herd animal that's ever existed...all part of what's being called the "sixth mass extinction". There might be a lot more humans, but there's apparently a LOT less of a total animal biomass...which means less CO2 output in the aggregate...but our CO2 level is still rising. Why? Look in your garage.



There are other significant groups around the world that deny AGW...but they're relatively few and far between. It's only in America that it's truly a major political issue - because in most other nations (with the possible exception of Australia), the issue is mostly considered as settled and proven, and the only real discussion is not whether or not AGW is true, but what can or should be done about it without adversely affecting the nation's economy. Unfortunately, too many people seem to think that what other nations believe or don't believe is of no consequence...as if global warming is only something that would affect other nations, and not us.

Well, I recognize that it's the sum total of all nations and all populations, as the winds travel across the entire globe.

So how stringent are the worlds most populous nations, the most recently industrialized, the most recently grown middle (consumer) classes emissions rated against the rest of the world?
 
It always amazes me when a normally intelligent person loses all of it because of partisanship. You actually are equating exhaled CO2 as a source of AGW? Do you not even understand the distinction between fossil carbon that has been removed from the ecosystem for millions of years and a person breathing? No amount of humans breathing can raise the level of CO2 in the ecosystem only the release of fossil carbon can do that.



Carbon dioxide emissions rise to 2.4 million pounds per second - CBS News

Where did all the carbon from the fossil fuel deposits come from?

At one time they were plants that covered the entire surface of the planet, including the poles. So at one time all that carbon was in the ecosystem and wasn't sequestered deep underground.

One could argue that releasing the sequestered carbon into the ecosystem is returning the Earth and it's ecosystem back to what it was, what is was supposed to be all along, and that all this carbon sequestered in deep in the Earth is not the 'normal' state.
 
The sea levels have been raising and will continue to rise, only a few places have seen any acceleration,
and much of that is from subsidence.
But please do not believe me, check with NOAA.
Sea Level Trends - NOAA Tides and Currents

Do you even know how to read that map???? Apparently not!

There are FAR more measurements of rising sea levels than falling sea levels on that map!!!! If the sea level weren't rising appreciably, then you'd see a roughly equal amount...but the amount is NOWHERE near equal, as that map makes PAINFULLY clear!!!!

What's more, the overwhelming majority of the rising measurements are from 0-2 feet/century over most of the map...and the meaning of that should be crystal clear - that's a POSITIVE sign of relatively equal amounts of sea level rise over much of the planet. YES, geology plays a part...which accounts for the relatively few measurements that show falling sea levels...

...in other words, almost ANY measurement on that map showing something other than the 0-2 ft/century rise is due to geologic effects. All other measurements are clearly due to the sea level itself rising.
 
Where did all the carbon from the fossil fuel deposits come from?

At one time they were plants that covered the entire surface of the planet, including the poles. So at one time all that carbon was in the ecosystem and wasn't sequestered deep underground.

One could argue that releasing the sequestered carbon into the ecosystem is returning the Earth and it's ecosystem back to what it was, what is was supposed to be all along, and that all this carbon sequestered in deep in the Earth is not the 'normal' state.

Being on the surface in the form of plant or animal mass is one thing. Being exhausted into our atmosphere in gaseous form is another thing altogether.
 
While true, several decades is meaningless in geologic time. However, I tend to disagree that the Earth's climate system is so well knows as to be able to attribute a cause to every change in our atmosphere and in our planet's temperature. Heck, we don't really know why ice ages happen.

Suffice it to say that there are many other possible causes of the warming climate many of which we are completely powerless to influence, much less able to contribute to. Are all of these possible sources also considered?

Understood. The problem with your contention is that it's built on the supposition that (1) the hundreds of thousands of scientists from all the developed nations around the world who have spent their careers studying global warming might somehow have missed whatever it is that's making our atmosphere and our oceans get warmer at such a pace, and (2) that the near-doubling of the CO2 content in our atmosphere over the past century wouldn't have any effect on our atmosphere's temperature even though CO2 is known to be a greenhouse gas.

Vat grown meat? Really? Errr. Who's going to buy and eat that? Heck, we can't even get people to eat GMOs. Vat grown meat? I don't think that's going to get the market traction you might hope that it will.

I don't think it will either, but one can hope. Stranger things have indeed happened.

Reference?

From NPR:

For example, we could also try to switch up what we feed cows. Having cows graze on grass isn't a very efficient use of land, as the grass makes for smaller animals, who end up emitting more greenhouse gases per pound of meat produced, than animals raised on grain.

However, corn and soy that most cows eat makes them especially gassy, so feeding them alfalfa and supplements could reduce how much they belch. More research on how to optimize what we feed livestock could help farmers reduce emissions.


To be fair, al Jazeera is claiming just the opposite...

...and then I looked at a site that compared both claims with credible studies, and as far as I can tell...it's a wash. Problem is, we're not going to stop eating meat, as long as we can get it...which means that this is NOT one of the global warming issues we can realistically do something about. But does the fact that we can't do anything about that particular problem mean that we shouldn't address the issues that we CAN do something about? Of course not. We can't stop the meat...but we CAN minimize emissions from transportation and factories and power plants and so forth.

Even at a 20:1 ratio? Hmm. I suppose you're right on that one.

Thanks :)

Well, I recognize that it's the sum total of all nations and all populations, as the winds travel across the entire globe.

So how stringent are the worlds most populous nations, the most recently industrialized, the most recently grown middle (consumer) classes emissions rated against the rest of the world?

I was surprised to see that per capita, the first-world Middle Eastern nations are by far the worst, probably because of all the air conditioning they use, the fact that they have to import all food and other goods, and so forth. After them, we're the worst of the major nations. China's emissions are greater than ours overall...but per capital, they're a bit over one-third of ours.

But if we sit on our hands and refuse to do anything because everybody else isn't doing it as much as we'd like to see...then others won't do it, too. That's leadership 101 - sometimes ya gotta do it yourself in order to show others that it can be done and done well, so that the others will follow.
 
Where did all the carbon from the fossil fuel deposits come from?

At one time they were plants that covered the entire surface of the planet, including the poles. So at one time all that carbon was in the ecosystem and wasn't sequestered deep underground.

One could argue that releasing the sequestered carbon into the ecosystem is returning the Earth and it's ecosystem back to what it was, what is was supposed to be all along, and that all this carbon sequestered in deep in the Earth is not the 'normal' state.

LOL Now you are just being a clown. More likely that until the plants sequestered all that carbon, higher animal life could not develop because of the excess heat. Now we are releasing what took millions of years to remove in a few hundred...What could go wrong.....

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/the-last-time-co2-was-this-high-humans-didnt-exist-15938
 
The Sea level has been raising for thousands of years, the rate has not changed much in the last few hundred.

As I have pointed out the day length data says it has not been changing at all.

Given that looking out of the window on a stormy night to get the high tide level for navigation purposes in 1900 will get you a different number to the hyper accurate pressure sensors we use tody why would you think the historic data is accurate?
 
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Look at the references in #7 - are you going to claim that the islands that are disappearing due to rising waters were somehow special in that the world's oceans have risen everywhere but where those islands had been for thousands of years?

Pacific island are all sinking slowly into the ocean bed. Well the little volcanic ones. This is what happens.

The Life and Death of a Volcanic Island
 
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