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2016 Hurricanes update page.

katzgar said:
when will the NWS have a good enough puter to model as well as the europeans do?
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Both the European and the NWS models have their advantages and disadvantages.
 
katzgar said:
my understanding is the european models are more accurate.
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It's not "more accurate per say" it's more data being punched through. They updated their model system to add a layer the GFS doesn't run. It's still capable of being wrong.
Why the European Weather Model Remains King Over National Weather Service's Prediction Tool | NBC 10 Philadelphia
Good read on the two.
All computer models have built in biases and you have to learn em. NEVER take a model at face value, at least... if you don't want egg on your face. Look at the Atlantic, I promise you none of the models saw Fiona clearing a path for further development, and yet we had further development. **** happens. The less data in, hard data in, the less accurate your forecasts. There is very little hard data coming in from the oceans.
 
ALERT for the EAST COAST:

two_atl_5d0.jpg

How powerful this thing get's is anyone's guess at the moment. It's been disheveled it's entire existence. I'm thinking a moderate Cat 1 at this point. That means rain, wind are your biggest threats. As long as it keeps turning the threat of a high storm surge is lower, but don't bet on that if you're on the coast. Presume I'm dead wrong and this thing beelines like Sandy did. Massive storm surge.
 
Renae said:
ALERT for the EAST COAST:

View attachment 67206291

How powerful this thing get's is anyone's guess at the moment. It's been disheveled it's entire existence. I'm thinking a moderate Cat 1 at this point. That means rain, wind are your biggest threats. As long as it keeps turning the threat of a high storm surge is lower, but don't bet on that if you're on the coast. Presume I'm dead wrong and this thing beelines like Sandy did. Massive storm surge.
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Throws hands in air and starts running around looking for flashlights, water, blankets, generators, gasoline, food and so on. Wait. I'm at 2500 ft above sea level. Never mind. Uh oh. Could get hit by a tree. Throws hand in air and starts running around for heavy plate steel, flashlights, water, blankets, generators, gasoline, food, and so on...
 
humbolt said:
Throws hands in air and starts running around looking for flashlights, water, blankets, generators, gasoline, food and so on. Wait. I'm at 2500 ft above sea level. Never mind. Uh oh. Could get hit by a tree. Throws hand in air and starts running around for heavy plate steel, flashlights, water, blankets, generators, gasoline, food, and so on...
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:thumbs: :thumbs: :lamo
 
humbolt said:
Throws hands in air and starts running around looking for flashlights, water, blankets, generators, gasoline, food and so on. Wait. I'm at 2500 ft above sea level. Never mind. Uh oh. Could get hit by a tree. Throws hand in air and starts running around for heavy plate steel, flashlights, water, blankets, generators, gasoline, food, and so on...
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HAR HAR HAR

Seriously though, always treat these storms as if they are worst case, that way you don't end up regretting mocking me as you DROWN IN A TIDAL WAVE OF COLD SEA WATER.

(or was that toooo dramatic? )
 
Renae said:
HAR HAR HAR

Seriously though, always treat these storms as if they are worst case, that way you don't end up regretting mocking me as you DROWN IN A TIDAL WAVE OF COLD SEA WATER.

(or was that toooo dramatic? )
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Nah. I was just kidding. Consider, I was watching the Weather Channel this morning.

It's wise to keep abreast of these storms and be prepared for the worst case, and most especially if you live in a coastal area. I'll be traveling for a while soon, so I like to know what I might have to face weather wise. I'll be heading west though, and away from most serious hurricane influence.
 
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