Record High Temperatures Result from El Nino, not AGW

Jack Hays · Mar 15, 2016

Sometimes the data are clear and speak for themselves. Let's see who's in denial now.

One graph proves that record high year of 2015 and record months of 2016 are not AGW driven

Dr Ryan Maue of Weatherbell follows the data, wherever that data leads him. He’s not shy of telling it like it is. Yesterday he released what I consider the most important graph of the year. For all those people that want to claim 2015/2016 “proves” that human caused global warming is at work (while at…
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For all those people that want to claim 2015/2016 “proves” that human caused global warming is at work (while at the same time ignoring a record El Niño event as seen above), this graph indisputably proves that the El Niño is the driver of record high temperatures, not carbon dioxide.

He wrote this on Twitter while providing the graph below.

Easy to see effect of El Nino on global temps by concurrently plotting tropical & global temp anomaly time series

And added:

Tropical temps increased relative to normal from April to Oct during El Nino onset. Global temps caught up in October. In sync since.

Pretty definitive, in my opinion.

Glen Contrarian · Mar 15, 2016

Jack Hays said:
Sometimes the data are clear and speak for themselves. Let's see who's in denial now.

One graph proves that record high year of 2015 and record months of 2016 are not AGW driven

Dr Ryan Maue of Weatherbell follows the data, wherever that data leads him. He’s not shy of telling it like it is. Yesterday he released what I consider the most important graph of the year. For all those people that want to claim 2015/2016 “proves” that human caused global warming is at work (while at…
Continue reading →

For all those people that want to claim 2015/2016 “proves” that human caused global warming is at work (while at the same time ignoring a record El Niño event as seen above), this graph indisputably proves that the El Niño is the driver of record high temperatures, not carbon dioxide.

He wrote this on Twitter while providing the graph below.

Easy to see effect of El Nino on global temps by concurrently plotting tropical & global temp anomaly time series

And added:

Tropical temps increased relative to normal from April to Oct during El Nino onset. Global temps caught up in October. In sync since.

Pretty definitive, in my opinion.

Nothing "proves" anything with your post. El Nino is not a product of AGW...but it's quite possible that the severity of the El Nino can be a direct result of AGW.

Deuce · Mar 15, 2016

I wonder when the so-called skeptics will ever get it in their head that multiple variables exist that affect climate

Jack Hays · Mar 15, 2016

Glen Contrarian said:
Nothing "proves" anything with your post. El Nino is not a product of AGW...but it's quite possible that the severity of the El Nino can be a direct result of AGW.

You are free to offer that conjecture although I know of no evidence for it. As for proving something, the graph looks definitive.

JasperL · Mar 15, 2016

Jack Hays said:
You are free to offer that conjecture although I know of no evidence for it. As for proving something, the graph looks definitive.

Why are "record" high temps in 2015/2016 explained away by El Nino? We've had other years with El Nino effects, obviously, so if the current temps are a record, they're higher than those previous years with the same El Nino effects. Furthermore, I'm not following how that graph can be "definitive" since it doesn't compare the recent El Nino effect to previous El Nino periods.

Jack Hays · Mar 15, 2016

JasperL said:
Why are "record" high temps in 2015/2016 explained away by El Nino? We've had other years with El Nino effects, obviously, so if the current temps are a record, they're higher than those previous years with the same El Nino effects. Furthermore, I'm not following how that graph can be "definitive" since it doesn't compare the recent El Nino effect to previous El Nino periods.

Last big El Nino was 1997-98, also record highs. You need to study El Nino effects and get back to us.

JasperL · Mar 15, 2016

Jack Hays said:
Last big El Nino was 1997-98, also record highs. You need to study El Nino effects and get back to us.

That doesn't answer my question, actually. 1997-98 were THEN record highs. According to this handy wiki chart 1998 is the 6th warmest on record at +1.13. 2015 was +1.62, considerably higher than the last big El Nino. So El Nino to El Nino, we're +0.49.

In fact, 2005, 2010, 2013 and 2014 were all higher than 1998, with 2014 the old record before the new record in 2015, perhaps outdone by 2016...

longview · Mar 16, 2016

JasperL said:
That doesn't answer my question, actually. 1997-98 were THEN record highs. According to this handy wiki chart 1998 is the 6th warmest on record at +1.13. 2015 was +1.62, considerably higher than the last big El Nino. So El Nino to El Nino, we're +0.49.

In fact, 2005, 2010, 2013 and 2014 were all higher than 1998, with 2014 the old record before the new record in 2015, perhaps outdone by 2016...

GISS has changed their data many times, it is still useful as an old record, but measures something different
than the IPCC predicts.
The RSS which measures brightness temperatures from satellites and actual temperatures from balloons,
is a more accurate measure of the the surface-troposphere system, which is the portion of the atmosphere
that is predicted to warm by the IPCC.
If you compare the GISS and RSS, 1998 still stands out as an exceptional year in the RSS.
Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
You can also see the two tracked fairly closely before 2000, but diverged after 2000.

JasperL · Mar 16, 2016

longview said:
GISS has changed their data many times, it is still useful as an old record, but measures something different
than the IPCC predicts.
The RSS which measures brightness temperatures from satellites and actual temperatures from balloons,
is a more accurate measure of the the surface-troposphere system, which is the portion of the atmosphere
that is predicted to warm by the IPCC.
If you compare the GISS and RSS, 1998 still stands out as an exceptional year in the RSS.
Wood for Trees: Interactive Graphs
You can also see the two tracked fairly closely before 2000, but diverged after 2000.

LOL, so the reason why 2015 isn't a record year has nothing to do with El Nino, but with the temp records being bogus....

It appears if some excuse doesn't work, there will be another one offered.

longview · Mar 16, 2016

JasperL said:
LOL, so the reason why 2015 isn't a record year has nothing to do with El Nino, but with the temp records being bogus....

It appears if some excuse doesn't work, there will be another one offered.

No, 2015 was a nothing special year, except the last few months were the beginning of an El Nino.
But please don't believe me, look at the data.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Where are the really high months in 2015?
Oct, Nov, and Dec, the beginning of the El Nino.
As to the data sets, GISS is a collection of surface temperature measurements, where they
exclude outliers, and then homogenize the reminder. The system has errors greater than the potential signal.
You can read about some of this on their own web site.
Data.GISS: GISTEMP ? The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature
2016 will likely exceed 1998, as the warmest years in the RSS record, but because of a strong El Nino.
Is there any AGW, of course, If one uses the IPCC's direct response number for CO2 of 1.2 C for a doubling,
we should have seen about .6 C of warming, since 1880.
Does that mean we should be alarmed, not really, we will transition off of fossil fuels
when the cost of the alternatives is lower, (about $90 a barrel).

JasperL · Mar 16, 2016

longview said:
No, 2015 was a nothing special year, except the last few months were the beginning of an El Nino.
But please don't believe me, look at the data.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt
Where are the really high months in 2015?
Oct, Nov, and Dec, the beginning of the El Nino.
As to the data sets, GISS is a collection of surface temperature measurements, where they
exclude outliers, and then homogenize the reminder. The system has errors greater than the potential signal.
You can read about some of this on their own web site.
Data.GISS: GISTEMP ? The Elusive Absolute Surface Air Temperature
2016 will likely exceed 1998, as the warmest years in the RSS record, but because of a strong El Nino.
Is there any AGW, of course, If one uses the IPCC's direct response number for CO2 of 1.2 C for a doubling,
we should have seen about .6 C of warming, since 1880.
Does that mean we should be alarmed, not really, we will transition off of fossil fuels
when the cost of the alternatives is lower, (about $90 a barrel).

OK, so no one can address the OP and why the graph is "definitive" in any way. It didn't make sense to me, and I guess it doesn't make sense to anyone else either.

longview · Mar 16, 2016

JasperL said:
OK, so no one can address the OP and why the graph is "definitive" in any way. It didn't make sense to me, and I guess it doesn't make sense to anyone else either.

I was replying to your comment about all the record years, which is only accurate
within the surface temperature records.
The OP is trying to show the extremely high El Nino tropic temperatures dragged up the global average.
That appears likely, but would require a lot of analysis to validate.
From what I can tell the 2015 zonal data sets from the GISS do not support this, but are annualized.
In the GISS the Warming appears to be only in the Northern Hemisphere
With the RSS it is not clear ether, The El Nino's do show up though.
RSS / MSU and AMSU Data / Time Series Trend Browser

jmotivator · Mar 16, 2016

JasperL said:
LOL, so the reason why 2015 isn't a record year has nothing to do with El Nino, but with the temp records being bogus....

It appears if some excuse doesn't work, there will be another one offered.

So which global climate data set to you trust more, the GISS series of hand selected surface thermometers and water temp data mashed together with questionable statistical methods or a satellite?

JasperL · Mar 16, 2016

jmotivator said:
So which global climate data set to you trust more, the GISS series of hand selected surface thermometers and water temp data mashed together with questionable statistical methods or a satellite?

What does that have to do with the OP?

jmotivator · Mar 16, 2016

JasperL said:
What does that have to do with the OP?

When discussing el Nino and record climates it helps to establish which of the increasingly disparate climate records you trust most. Do you trust the surface stations and water temps (which aren't event direct measures of surface temps) used to statistically model global temperature from increasingly limited sample sites, or a satellite that directly measures the lower troposphere?

JasperL · Mar 16, 2016

jmotivator said:
When discussing el Nino and record climates it helps to establish which of the increasingly disparate climate records you trust most. Do you trust the surface stations and water temps (which aren't event direct measures of surface temps) used to statistically model global temperature from increasingly limited sample sites, or a satellite that directly measures the lower troposphere?

LOL, nothing I guess. I'll pass on the "which temperature record to use" moving of the goal post.

Tim the plumber · Mar 16, 2016

Deuce said:
I wonder when the so-called skeptics will ever get it in their head that multiple variables exist that affect climate

That is what the skeptics have been saying all along!!!!!

The point is that if the warming between 1979 to 1998 is normal, something to be expected, natural, then there is no problem.

Jack Hays · Mar 16, 2016

JasperL said:
That doesn't answer my question, actually. 1997-98 were THEN record highs. According to this handy wiki chart 1998 is the 6th warmest on record at +1.13. 2015 was +1.62, considerably higher than the last big El Nino. So El Nino to El Nino, we're +0.49.

In fact, 2005, 2010, 2013 and 2014 were all higher than 1998, with 2014 the old record before the new record in 2015, perhaps outdone by 2016...

Alas, no.

[h=1]The Pause hangs on by its fingernails[/h] By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley The sharp el Niño spike is just about to abolish the long Pause in global temperatures – at least for now. This column has long foretold that the present el Niño would be substantial, and that it might at least shorten if not extinguish the Pause. After all, theory requires…

February 6, 2016 in Hiatus in Global Warming.

JasperL · Mar 16, 2016

Jack Hays said:
Alas, no.

[h=1]The Pause hangs on by its fingernails[/h] By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley The sharp el Niño spike is just about to abolish the long Pause in global temperatures – at least for now. This column has long foretold that the present el Niño would be substantial, and that it might at least shorten if not extinguish the Pause. After all, theory requires…

February 6, 2016 in Hiatus in Global Warming.

I see, the OP was just an excuse to repeat the same old talking points. :roll:

Jack Hays · Mar 16, 2016

JasperL said:
I see, the OP was just an excuse to repeat the same old talking points. :roll:

Not really. The OP's graph is more than enough to carry the thread. The "Pause" graph was just to refresh your memory.

Jack Hays · Mar 16, 2016

Alarmism / ENSO / Global Warming Optimism
[h=1]Alarmism Cranked Up to Absurd Level[/h] Guest Post by Bob Tisdale With the El Niño-related uptick in the February 2016 GISS Land-Ocean Temperature Index, Figure 1, alarmism has reached beyond the Spinal Tap 11 volume setting, up to 20. (For those in need of a chuckle, the YouTube video of related portion of This is Spinal Tap is here. Thanks to…

polgara · Mar 16, 2016

Jack Hays said:
Alas, no.

[h=1]The Pause hangs on by its fingernails[/h] By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley The sharp el Niño spike is just about to abolish the long Pause in global temperatures – at least for now. This column has long foretold that the present el Niño would be substantial, and that it might at least shorten if not extinguish the Pause. After all, theory requires…

February 6, 2016 in Hiatus in Global Warming.

Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

The article entitled "There's life in the Old Pause Yet" was one of the best I've read so far! :thumbs: It just seems to me that sooner or later, contrary to whatever agenda they might have, that they will almost be forced to agree that there has been a multi-year pause in warming. Add to that the fact that our sun is now going into a "resting" phase for a number of years into the future, which should also have a impact on global climate temperatures.

In any event, most people are not going to be overly alarmed, perhaps wrongly but time will tell, over a change of less than one degree of warming per century! with the possible exception of those dictators of poor countries standing in line to receive money from the UN to help them fight "climate change." :thumbdown: I understood from reading that no binding agreement - everything was supposedly voluntary - was reached on monetary matters in the last conference a few months ago to the anger of those who hoped otherwise. However, Obama has sent the UN $500 million dollars from the US to show that he's convinced there's a problem so we shall see if other "first world" countries do the same. No one has yet explained how the money is to be distributed by the UN, though, and what results can be expected, so I agree with many others that we should be filled in on those details about how our tax dollars will be used to fight climate change. :shock:

Jack Hays · Mar 16, 2016

polgara said:
Greetings, Jack. :2wave:

The article entitled "There's life in the Old Pause Yet" was one of the best I've read so far! :thumbs: It just seems to me that sooner or later, contrary to whatever agenda they might have, that they will almost be forced to agree that there has been a multi-year pause in warming. Add to that the fact that our sun is now going into a "resting" phase for a number of years into the future, which should also have a impact on global climate temperatures.

In any event, most people are not going to be overly alarmed, perhaps wrongly but time will tell, over a change of less than one degree of warming per century! with the possible exception of those dictators of poor countries standing in line to receive money from the UN to help them fight "climate change." :thumbdown: I understood from reading that no binding agreement - everything was supposedly voluntary - was reached on monetary matters in the last conference a few months ago to the anger of those who hoped otherwise. However, Obama has sent the UN $500 million dollars from the US to show that he's convinced there's a problem so we shall see if other "first world" countries do the same. No one has yet explained how the money is to be distributed by the UN, though, and what results can be expected, so I agree with many others that we should be filled in on those details about how our tax dollars will be used to fight climate change. :shock:

Good evening, Polgara.:2wave:

In a world gone mad you are a beacon of common sense.

polgara · Mar 16, 2016

Jack Hays said:
Good evening, Polgara.:2wave:

In a world gone mad you are a beacon of common sense.

Nay, kind sir, I'm more like a little flashlight than a beacon, but it has become apparent that few in DC care about what any of us think, so I'm in good company with lots of other flashlights! :mrgreen: BTW, you are correct about a world gone mad! A friend of mine who is very much into numerology - she teaches it as part of a esoteric course she offers at a college nearby, as a matter of fact - explained to me today that 2016 totals 9, which always indicates "endings" of some kind. She was alarmed that the Trump phenomena might signal an end to a way of life we have known, since the populous has shown how disgusted they are with the status quo, and intends to change it! It will be interesting to see how this election turns out. For what it's worth....:shock:

polgara · Mar 16, 2016

JC, you've been on my mind...how is your stepfather doing?

Record High Temperatures Result from El Nino, not AGW

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