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2015 Was Hottest Year in Recorded History, Scientists Say

Right, there's no claim of an overall absence of warming. In fact, there is full-throated agreement with the basics of global climate change caused by human activity:

"Our climate is changing and the scientific evidence that man is contributing to this is stronger than ever before."
Our Changing Climate: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/4/b/Our_changing_climate_-_the_current_science.pdf

"The latest observations continue to show a changing climate; not only increases in global temperatures, but also rising sea-levels, shrinking glaciers and reducing Arctic sea-ice. All these are consistent with a warming world driven by increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations."
Highlights of Research on Our Changing Climate: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/p...earch_into_our_changing_climate_for_COP21.pdf

Great resource, Mr. Hays, thank you.
 
Right, there's no claim of an overall absence of warming. In fact, there is full-throated agreement with the basics of global climate change caused by human activity:


Our Changing Climate: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/4/b/Our_changing_climate_-_the_current_science.pdf


Highlights of Research on Our Changing Climate: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/p...earch_into_our_changing_climate_for_COP21.pdf

Great resource, Mr. Hays, thank you.

You are most welcome. They can keep you updated on the coming years of cooling.
 
Ah. You don't care for the UK's Met Office? And by whom do you think AW is paid?

Anyway, the Met Office can speak for themselves.
Spatial patterns suggest enhanced warming over land and at high northern latitudes. There is some indication of continued cool conditions in the Southern Ocean, and of relatively cool conditions in the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre. Uncertainties in the forecast are considerable: for the period 2016-2020 most regions are expected to be warmer than the average of 1981 to 2010, but regional cooling is possible over much of the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre. Differences with our forecast issued last year are expected because the updated forecast has been made with an upgraded version of our model. Nevertheless, both forecasts suggest relatively cool conditions in the Southern Ocean and the North Atlantic sub-polar gyre although the magnitude of the anomalies is smaller in the updated forecast. Further forecasts from other international modelling centres are available from the multi-model decadal forecast exchange.

During the five-year period 2016-2020, global average temperature (see blue shading in Figure 3 below) is expected to remain between 0.28°C and 0.77°C (90% confidence range) above the long-term 1981-2010 mean (0.88°C to 1.37°C relative to pre-industrial conditions represented by the period 1850 to 1900). The warmest individual year in the 160-year Met Office Hadley Centre global temperature record is 2015 with a temperature of 0.44 ± 0.1 °C above the 1981-2010 mean. Averaged over the whole five-year period 2016-2020, global average temperature is expected to be between 0.42°C and 0.67°C above the 1981-2010 mean (1.02°C to 1.27°C relative to pre-industrial conditions).
The forecast is for continued global warming largely driven by continued high levels of greenhouse gases. However, other changes in the climate system, including the largest El Niño since 1997 and longer term shifts in both the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), are also contributing. Near record temperatures are predicted for the coming five years, consistent with the Met Office annual global temperature forecast. However, the recent run of consecutive record years is likely to end in 2017 as El Niño declines. The forecast remains towards the mid to upper end of the range simulated by CMIP5 models that have not been initialised with observations (green shading in Figure 3). Barring a large volcanic eruption or a very sudden return to La Niña or negative AMO conditions which could temporarily cool climate, ten year global average warming rates are likely to return to late 20th century levels within the next two years. Nevertheless, the recent slowdown in surface warming is still an active research topic and trends over a longer (15 year) period will take longer to respond. For further discussion on the surface warming slowdown see the Met Office reports on the recent pause in warming and on big changes underway in the climate system.
Read more: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/long-range/decadal-fc

I recently received a copy of a book about a colony of penguins entitled "Our Iceberg Is Melting," written by John Kotter from Harvard Business School. Children in middle school are required to read this book and write a paper on it describing their thoughts and feelings about the plight of the unfortunate penguin colony. Starting on page 128, the author gives suggestions on how to influence and change people's thinking, and the steps for doing so, including the "Eight Step Plan" which he endorses. Interesting that children this age are being taught about global climate change in school these days - all we were required to learn in school was basically Reading, Writing, Arithmetic and good manners in order to get a job one day! Times are sure a'changin.... :shock:
 
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[h=2] CSIRO wipes out climate division — 350 scientists to go — since it’s “beyond debate” who needs em?[/h]
BREAKING BUN FEST: Hysterical. The contradictions in the propaganda are biting back viciously. Isn’t karma a bitch?
[h=3]If climate change is solved and beyond debate, who needs climate scientists?[/h] CSIRO has announced it will axe 300 to 350 climate jobs, which will “wipe out” the climate division. The head of the CSIRO wants to focus on climate adaption and mitigation instead. Suddenly a lot of Profs who told us the debate was over are squealing that it needs more research. Climate science was “beyond debate” and in need of action, but now we “need to know more about the basic operation of the climate”. Oh the dilemma!
The head of the CSIRO is doing what the Greens say they want — moving beyond the debate and putting more money into adaption and mitigation. Where’s the Greens statement applauding him…?
With up to 350 scientist jobs under fire at maybe $250k per year (including super, admin, and other on-costs), that means there is around $90m at stake.
This is a CSIRO management decision:
“Climate will be all gone, basically,” one senior scientist said before the announcement.
In the email sent out to staff on Thursday morning, CSIRO’s chief executive Larry Marshall indicated that, since climate change had been established, further work in the area would be a reduced priority. — SMH
The CSIRO are just doing the obvious thing after Paris. There is no science debate, they are moving on to “adaption”, and “mitigation”:
CSIRO chief executive Larry Marshall said the changes would see the organisation move away from measuring and monitoring climate change, to instead focus on how to adapt to it.
“It’s inevitable that people who are gifted at measuring and modelling climate may not be the same people who are gifted at figuring out what to do about it how to mitigate it,” he said.
“Some of the climate scientists will be able to make that transition and some won’t.” — ABC
Scientists are tying themselves in knots to explain why it’s appalling that there is a loss of safe, low turnover jobs to study something that is “proven”. Gee, just as well they aren’t coal miners.
Professor Penny Sackett –a former Australian Chief Scientist who now works for the Climate Change Institute at ANU.
“I am stunned by reports that CSIRO management no longer thinks measuring and understanding climate change is important, innovative or impactful. Paris did not determine whether or not climate change is happening, scientists who generate and study big data did. The big question now, which underlies all climate adaptation work, is ‘How is the climate changing?’”
So we don’t know how the climate is changing? So Penny, when did you mention that all the predictions of floods and droughts and terrible storms were uncertain?
Prof Will Steffen suddenly admits “we” don’t know the basic operation of the climate system:
Keep reading →
 

[h=1]The Pause hangs on by its fingernails[/h] By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley The sharp el Niño spike is just about to abolish the long Pause in global temperatures – at least for now. This column has long foretold that the present el Niño would be substantial, and that it might at least shorten if not extinguish the Pause. After all, theory requires…
Continue reading →
 
LOL...

Didn't you just say in another post that you don't use blogs?

LOL...

I generally don't use them to defend arguments.

I was merely posting some good writing on the issue (Plait is more of a journalist than an amateur blogger- he writes for a pretty large news organization) that contrasted with the endless blog blargh seen here.
 
I generally don't use them to defend arguments.

I was merely posting some good writing on the issue (Plait is more of a journalist than an amateur blogger- he writes for a pretty large news organization) that contrasted with the endless blog blargh seen here.

Excuses, excuses...
 
The New York Times reported:



http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/21/science/earth/2015-hottest-year-global-warming.html

The just reported GISS Anomalies:

December: +1.12°C (old record: +1.06°C, October 2015)
January-December: +0.87°C (old record: +0.74°C, 2014)


2015 had five months that were ranked among the 10 months with the greatest warm anomalies, including the 3 highest.


GISSDec2015.jpg



So far, the Berkeley, GISS, and RATPAC datasets have all shown that 2015 was, comfortably, the warmest year on record. The two remaining major datasets (NCDC and HadCrut) are very likely to do the same given their January-November data.

Where is the pause? This is why you don't see a pause in a short 15-year trend and run around screaming that global warming has stopped. Temperature even if it is trending upward does not go up in a strait line year by year. This argument has been officially refuted.
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