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Climate Change: History and Politics

If CH4's 'warming power' is insignificant when compared to the warming power of CO2, what is H2O's 'warming power' when compared to CO2's? Is there a apt comparison? Does the propensity of H2O in the 'sphere compared to CO2 make a difference (I allude to the chronic nature of global warming that's decried by environmentalists) and, if so, why do environmentalists exclusively emphasize monitoring CO2?
H2O, because of it's enormous percentage of the atmosphere, is the dominant player,
The reason the environmentalists exclusively emphasize monitoring CO2, is that CO2 is the only player that Humans might be able to control.
Where as CH4's absorption wavelengths are masked under H2O, one of CO2's absorption wavelengths is not,(15 um).
This means a 15 um photon, heading towards space, has a high percentage chance of a strike with a CO2 molecule.
The strike causes a change in the energy state, which then decays and emits the energy, in random directions, some of it back towards earth.
 
If CH4's 'warming power' is insignificant when compared to the warming power of CO2, what is H2O's 'warming power' when compared to CO2's? Is there a apt comparison? Does the propensity of H2O in the 'sphere compared to CO2 make a difference (I allude to the chronic nature of global warming that's decried by environmentalists) and, if so, why do environmentalists exclusively emphasize monitoring CO2?

I'll give you the simple answer and let others get drawn into the technical stuff.

The argument from the warmists is that CO2 will do this greenhouse thing of allowing UV through whilst stopping the IR getting out. UV being produced by the hot sun and not by the cool earth.

The counter argument is that unless you are in a very dry place the water vapor in the atmosphere is already doing that many more times over what the CO2 can do.

I don't know which is correct.

I do see that the data that has come out since the predictions of a 4c rise in temperature as a maximum are very much towards the low end of the expected range of less than 2c.

Personally I find all the supposed problems of a +4c change in temperature to be minor and highly unlikely to happen at all. I also find the increased growing seasons and hugely increased crop yealds to be a good thing.
 
I'd like some guidance not 'snarkery'.

I'm affraid you will have to put up with the standard 3goofs line of go and read this vast tomb of drivel so I don't have to answer your question because I am too superiour to actually know it myself lines here.
 
I'm affraid you will have to put up with the standard 3goofs line of go and read this vast tomb of drivel so I don't have to answer your question because I am too superiour to actually know it myself lines here.
You from Great Britain?
 
I'm affraid you will have to put up with the standard 3goofs line of go and read this vast tomb of drivel so I don't have to answer your question because I am too superiour to actually know it myself lines here.
That was perfect.
th
 
You from Great Britain?

Yes. The land where belief in AGW and other political ideas are not very closely linked and belief in God is not very popular at all. And where we spell things oddly, especially me, I'm a bit dyslexic.
 
I'd like some guidance not 'snarkery'.

Well, you can educate yourself here too.

Its not snarkery - I'm just trying to point out that this topic is fairly complicated, and not one that you'll learn from a politics debate message board, especially one filled with deniers who constantly misstate facts and have an amateur's grasp of the issues but think they understand each and every scientific field because they subscribe to one (1) science journal for the last three years.
 
If CH4's 'warming power' is insignificant when compared to the warming power of CO2, what is H2O's 'warming power' when compared to CO2's? Is there a apt comparison? Does the propensity of H2O in the 'sphere compared to CO2 make a difference (I allude to the chronic nature of global warming that's decried by environmentalists) and, if so, why do environmentalists exclusively emphasize monitoring CO2?
The actual warming caused by the major three vary, primarily by latitude. Over the global average, I have not been able to pin down numbers for H2O. Maybe I need to look harder than I have. Between the vapor and clouds, it is easily over 180 W/m^2. CO2 comes in at around 30-32 W/m^2 if we believe the poor science behind these numbers are correct, and CH4, only around 2 W/m^2.

The reason CO2 is the boogeyman, is because it is what we can control the easiest... at least in some people's warped perception.

I get so tired about the ignorance the warmers parrot from the pundits.

They act as if CO2 is the only gas that has H2O feedback, when the change in humidity is a response to the change in sea surface temperature and winds.

They act as if the sun is insignificant, when it is the power behind all the rest of the forcing. If the sun increases by 0.1%, then all the greenhouse gas forcing increases about the same percentage, because these are feedback systems from the sun!

A typical energy budget depiction:



If we assume the sun to change by 0.18%, which is an approximate average among TSI studies, then the back radiation alone changes by 0.61 W/m^2. The total upward surface IR changes by 0.91 W/m^2. These are number much higher than the IPCC et. al. will acknowledge. They are careful to specify direct solar changes, and this way they can hide the truth without lying about it. Notice how they never speak of the indirect changes caused by the sun?

I just realized... "Environmentalists exclusively emphasize monitoring CO2..." You didn't say climatologists... I'm not sure that is the case. Sure, some will, but I'll bet many agree more CO2 is good for the environment! For all I know, the number of environmentalists saying CO2 is good might outweigh those who cay its bad.

I will contend that out land use has a greater influence of temperature than CO2 does. Also, that temperatures don't increase by as much as indicated by thermometers, because that are mostly located in areas affected by the land use changes, skewing the results.
 
Well, you can educate yourself here too.

Its not snarkery - I'm just trying to point out that this topic is fairly complicated, and not one that you'll learn from a politics debate message board, especially one filled with deniers who constantly misstate facts and have an amateur's grasp of the issues but think they understand each and every scientific field because they subscribe to one (1) science journal for the last three years.

He rationalizes too....
 
If CH4's 'warming power' is insignificant when compared to the warming power of CO2, what is H2O's 'warming power' when compared to CO2's? Is there a apt comparison? Does the propensity of H2O in the 'sphere compared to CO2 make a difference (I allude to the chronic nature of global warming that's decried by environmentalists) and, if so, why do environmentalists exclusively emphasize monitoring CO2?

There are a couple of important differences between H2O and less abundant greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4 and N2O which Longview and Lord of Planar apparently either don't know, or have chosen not to mention in their would-be condescending diatribes.

The atmospheric limits of water vapour is probably most relevant to your question: Most H2O is in the form of liquid water at atmospheric temperature and pressure (if not solid ice!), every schoolkid knows that. The global average surface air temperature is about 15 degrees Celsius, and at that temperature the dew point of water vapour (100% humidity) is only about 11 grams per kilogram of air (1.1% by mass, which I believe is around 1.66% by volume). The global average concentration of atmospheric water vapour is around 2% by volume if memory serves, as L and L's figures also suggest, presumably because temperature and pressure vary around the world and with altitude. But in most places there's likely to be little if any room for increase in atmospheric water vapour. Increases in global temperatures could raise that threshold a little, but water vapour alone can't accomplish that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_humidity#Other_important_facts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_vapor#In_Earth.27s_atmosphere

Secondly, the uneven distribution of water vapour throughout the atmosphere - both vertically and horizontally. Total column water vapour content is in the order of 6-20 times greater around the tropics than at the Arctic or Antarctic circles. Over 99% of water vapour is contained in the troposphere. By contrast, concentration changes of gases which are not so dramatically affected by small temperature and pressure changes (like CO2, CH4 and N2O) last longer so that they have time to become distributed more evenly throughout the troposphere; hence they're called well-mixed greenhouse gases. CO2 also has a uniform distribution ratio vertically, at least up to 80km or so, well above the stratosphere. The CH4 and N2O ratios decrease somewhat in the stratosphere, but not nearly as much as water vapour does: There's nearly 10,000 times as much H2O at the surface as there is CH4, but in the lower stratosphere there's less than twice as much!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_vapor#Radar_and_satellite_imaging
http://ruc.noaa.gov/AMB_Publication...osition and Vertical Structure_eae319MS-1.pdf


It's worth noting that this is extremely old information: The first was the reason why, back in the 19th century, Svante Arrhenius concluded that CO2 was more likely as a candidate for helping to regulate the Pleistocene climate's glacial/interglacial cycles than water vapour; because it's got a much better chance to maintain persistent change over time. The "saturated absorption bands" argument which L and L are making was a legitimate objection to anthropogenic global warming... about 70 years ago. In fact the necessarily dry conditions in the cold upper atmosphere were also known to Arrhenius and noted in response to his critics, but it wasn't until computerized radiative transfer calculations could be performed (by Gilbert Plass in the 1950s) that the definite potential for surface warming from upper-atmosphere gases - even in the bands which H2O utterly saturates at the surface - could be established.
https://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

Maybe in another 70 years, Longview and Lord of Planar will finally get the memos.
 
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Several years ago, I plotted the RE based on the IPCC AR4 numbers. Came close to their numbers:

RadiativeEfficiency_zps68a04c55.png


IAW AR4 page 33, table TS.2, and table 2.14 on page 212, provided the following for ER:

According to your graph, to add 3.7W/m^2 of radiative forcing you would need to add
~280ppmv of CO2 or
~40ppmv of CH4

So by that metric CH4 is about seven times more potent than CO2.
 
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Maybe in another 70 years, Longview and Lord of Planar will finally get the memos.

All that rationalizing and equivocation just to justify that...

It doesn't change the fact that the amount of H2O in the atmosphere changes with temperature, and a few other factors.
 
According to your graph, to add 3.7W/m^2 of radiative forcing you would need to add
~280ppmv of CO2 or
~30ppmv of CH4

So by that metric CH4 is over nine times more potent than CO2.

Well, the 3.71 would be a doubling. I believe the CO2 RE slope was determined with 379 and 379.001 ppm. Now the CH4 slope was determined at I think 1774 and 1775 ppb. A little over 4 doubling to get from 1,774 to 30,000 ppb.

You are right in that it depends on what you are comparing. But isn't four doublings of CH4 to almost equal a single doubling of CO2, showing that CO2 is the stronger gas?

I'm not going to follow you on this wild goose chase away from the facts.

The fact is that RE and GWP are used in ways that very few people understand, and there are implications that are not true with the way the pundits use them.

I will solidly contend that they should not be part of the science, because you cannot have scientific integrity when you imply such misconceptions.

A simple truth of which gas is strong, is obvious. IAW the AR4, CO2 increased from 278 ppm to 379 ppm. A 36.3% increase for a 1.66 W/m^2 forcing increase. CH4 more than doubled from 722(?) ppb to 1774 ppb. A 145.7% increase for only a 0.48 W/m^2 increase.

In any real metric that has real meaning, CO2 is far stronger than CH4.

The only purpose I see for RE and GWP is as a scare tactic. This is despicable.
 
All that rationalizing and equivocation just to justify that...

It doesn't change the fact that the amount of H2O in the atmosphere changes with temperature, and a few other factors.

In other words, water vapor is a significant major feedback amplification for CO2.

You ARE starting to catch on, big guy!
 
In other words, water vapor is a significant major feedback amplification for CO2.

You ARE starting to catch on, big guy!

LOL...

Practicing your Jester antics again?

LOL...

You say that as if H2O feedback only responds to CO2...

Why are you so limited in your thinking?

Why don't you use more integrity, and admit H2O responds to other thermal changes as well?

Did you lose your integrity and forget where you left it?
 
A simple truth of which gas is strong, is obvious. IAW the AR4, CO2 increased from 278 ppm to 379 ppm. A 36.3% increase for a 1.66 W/m^2 forcing increase. CH4 more than doubled from 722(?) ppb to 1774 ppb. A 145.7% increase for only a 0.48 W/m^2 increase.

In any real metric that has real meaning, CO2 is far stronger than CH4.

The only purpose I see for RE and GWP is as a scare tactic. This is despicable.

If we emit a thousand tonnes of CH4, it will produce a lot more warming than a thousand tonnes of CO2.
If we emitted as much CH4 as we do of CO2, it would produce a lot more warming.

How much more may well be a variable figure depending on quantities and timeframes, but that it is more by a very substantial margin in both cases is abundantly clear.

By looking at a percentage increase, you are in effect declaring in the face of all evidence that it must be considered a weaker greenhouse gas purely because CH4's original levels were far lower than CO2's. I wouldn't call that despicable, and I don't even think you're being dishonest: But you clearly are not correct, and using such utterly flawed reasoning to insult and slander the scientific community is rather disappointing, to say the least.
 
LOL...

Practicing your Jester antics again?

LOL...

You say that as if H2O feedback only responds to CO2...

Why are you so limited in your thinking?

Why don't you use more integrity, and admit H2O responds to other thermal changes as well?

Did you lose your integrity and forget where you left it?

When did I say it didn't?

Oh- in your head....where all kinds of conspiracy theories and fantasies are held.
 
There are a couple of important differences between H2O and less abundant greenhouse gases like CO2, CH4 and N2O which Longview and Lord of Planar apparently either don't know, or have chosen not to mention in their would-be condescending diatribes.

The atmospheric limits of water vapour is probably most relevant to your question: Most H2O is in the form of liquid water at atmospheric temperature and pressure (if not solid ice!), every schoolkid knows that. The global average surface air temperature is about 15 degrees Celsius, and at that temperature the dew point of water vapour (100% humidity) is only about 11 grams per kilogram of air (1.1% by mass, which I believe is around 1.66% by volume). The global average concentration of atmospheric water vapour is around 2% by volume if memory serves, as L and L's figures also suggest, presumably because temperature and pressure vary around the world and with altitude. But in most places there's likely to be little if any room for increase in atmospheric water vapour. Increases in global temperatures could raise that threshold a little, but water vapour alone can't accomplish that.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Relative_humidity#Other_important_facts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_vapor#In_Earth.27s_atmosphere

Secondly, the uneven distribution of water vapour throughout the atmosphere - both vertically and horizontally. Total column water vapour content is in the order of 6-20 times greater around the tropics than at the Arctic or Antarctic circles. Over 99% of water vapour is contained in the troposphere. By contrast, concentration changes of gases which are not so dramatically affected by small temperature and pressure changes (like CO2, CH4 and N2O) last longer so that they have time to become distributed more evenly throughout the troposphere; hence they're called well-mixed greenhouse gases. CO2 also has a uniform distribution ratio vertically, at least up to 80km or so, well above the stratosphere. The CH4 and N2O ratios decrease somewhat in the stratosphere, but not nearly as much as water vapour does: There's nearly 10,000 times as much H2O at the surface as there is CH4, but in the lower stratosphere there's less than twice as much!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_vapor#Radar_and_satellite_imaging
http://ruc.noaa.gov/AMB_Publication...osition and Vertical Structure_eae319MS-1.pdf


It's worth noting that this is extremely old information: The first was the reason why, back in the 19th century, Svante Arrhenius concluded that CO2 was more likely as a candidate for helping to regulate the Pleistocene climate's glacial/interglacial cycles than water vapour; because it's got a much better chance to maintain persistent change over time. The "saturated absorption bands" argument which L and L are making was a legitimate objection to anthropogenic global warming... about 70 years ago. In fact the necessarily dry conditions in the cold upper atmosphere were also known to Arrhenius and noted in response to his critics, but it wasn't until computerized radiative transfer calculations could be performed (by Gilbert Plass in the 1950s) that the definite potential for surface warming from upper-atmosphere gases - even in the bands which H2O utterly saturates at the surface - could be established.
https://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

Maybe in another 70 years, Longview and Lord of Planar will finally get the memos.
It still comes down to the mean free path of the selected photon.
The wavelengths that CH4 absorbs, stand like a 10,000 times greater chance of striking an H2O molecule as an CH4 molecule.
So while the potential may exists, the probability is quite low.
I used the 2% figure for water vapor, which it is likely higher in most places, but compared to the 2 ppm of CH4
even your 1.66% is 8300 times more abundant than CH4.
At these level the mean free path is likely just a few microns before a photon encounters an H2O molecule.
 
The atmospheric limits of water vapour is probably most relevant to your question: Most H2O is in the form of liquid water at atmospheric temperature and pressure (if not solid ice!), every schoolkid knows that. The global average surface air temperature is about 15 degrees Celsius, and at that temperature the dew point of water vapour (100% humidity) is only about 11 grams per kilogram of air (1.1% by mass, which I believe is around 1.66% by volume). The global average concentration of atmospheric water vapour is around 2% by volume if memory serves,

So that would have about 110kg of water above every square meter (on average) in the form of vapor. Or 11cm of water over you as vapor, as an average.

You can see why the question as to how 0.4kg of CO2 would look like a small amount compared to this for some of us surely?
 
If we emit a thousand tonnes of CH4, it will produce a lot more warming than a thousand tonnes of CO2.
If we emitted as much CH4 as we do of CO2, it would produce a lot more warming.

How much more may well be a variable figure depending on quantities and timeframes, but that it is more by a very substantial margin in both cases is abundantly clear.

By looking at a percentage increase, you are in effect declaring in the face of all evidence that it must be considered a weaker greenhouse gas purely because CH4's original levels were far lower than CO2's. I wouldn't call that despicable, and I don't even think you're being dishonest: But you clearly are not correct, and using such utterly flawed reasoning to insult and slander the scientific community is rather disappointing, to say the least.

I think you completely missed my point, or are you intentionally skirting around it?

Since 1750, we have only added a little over 1 ppm of CH4 to the atmospheric concentration, but over 120 ppm of CO2.

Try to keep it real please. There is about a 100:1 factor here.
 
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I think you completely missed my point, or are you intentionally skirting around it?

Since 1750, we have only added a little over 1 ppm of CH4 to the atmospheric concentration, but over 120 ppm of CO2.

Try to keep it real please. There is about a 100:1 factor here.

You're all over the place in a desperate attempt to defend the indefensible: Last post you insisted that we should look at a larger value for CH4 (the percentage increase above natural values) and now you're pleading that we must consider the larger value for CO2 (the total increase from human activities).

Yes, we've emitted a hundred times as much CO2... and it has had less than four times as much effect on the energy balance. By that metric, CH4 seems to be over 25 times as potent.

Our emissions of another thousand tonnes of CH4 has a much greater effect than another thousand tonnes of CO2. Foolishly (and not for the first time) I thought that your concerns might be genuine, but your ongoing attempts to slander the scientific community as using a "despicable scare tactic" - when it is abundantly clear that the stated facts are correct - suggest that this is (yet again) driven by some kind of ideological motivation rather than merely the sloppy thinking it first appeared to be.
 
It still comes down to the mean free path of the selected photon.
The wavelengths that CH4 absorbs, stand like a 10,000 times greater chance of striking an H2O molecule as an CH4 molecule.
So while the potential may exists, the probability is quite low.
I used the 2% figure for water vapor, which it is likely higher in most places, but compared to the 2 ppm of CH4
even your 1.66% is 8300 times more abundant than CH4.
At these level the mean free path is likely just a few microns before a photon encounters an H2O molecule.

Near the surface yes, especially in tropical regions; though even Lord of Planar's graphs suggest regions around 3 and 8 micrometers where H2O's absorption is not complete which coincide with CH4 absorption peaks. But thermal emission doesn't stop at the planet's surface, and in the stratosphere water vapour is only marginally more abundant than methane. You can ignore or deny that 'til the cows come home, but it won't change the facts; you're hammering on with an objection which was answered six decades ago and has stood the test of time. Talk about flogging a dead horse :lol:
 
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