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GISS Dataset: October 2015 Sets Temperature Anomaly Record

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donsutherland1

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The just released data for October from the GISS dataset revealed a +1.04°C anomaly. That figure, which remains subject to modest revision, was above the previously record of +0.97°C, which was established in January 2007. It is only the 5th anomaly of +0.90°C or higher on the GISS dataset, which dates back to 1880. Those anomalies are as follows:

1. +1.04°C, October 2015
2. +0.97°C, January 2007
3. +0.93°C, March 2010
4. +0.91°C, March 2002
5. +0.90°C, March 2015

For the first 10 months, 2015 has an average anomaly of +0.82°C. That previous highest anomaly for the January-October period was +0.75°C, which was established in 2014.

Every month saw 2015 achieve the 4th highest figure for that month or higher:

January: 2nd highest January anomaly
February 2nd highest February anomaly
March: 3rd highest March anomaly (5th highest monthly anomaly)
April: 4th highest April anomaly
May: 2nd highest May anomaly
June: Highest June anomaly
July: 2nd highest July anomaly
August: 2nd highest August anomaly
September: 2nd highest September anomaly
October: Highest October anomaly (highest monthly anomaly)

Existing Monthly Records for November and December:
November: +0.81°C, 2013
December: +0.79°C, 2014

Both monthly figures could be approached or surpassed.

2014 established the annual record of +0.74°C. To put things into context, 2015 would match that record if November and December had average anomalies of +0.35°C. The last time there were two consecutive months that were as cool was January-February 2008. During that time, there was a very strong La Niña event underway. This time around a strong El Niño event is ongoing. Therefore, it is extremely likely that 2015 will establish a new temperature record.
 
flogger said:
Cuz GISS said so eh ? :yawn:
Click to expand...

The National Climatic Data Center and Hadley Centre will both release their data later this month. When that happens, we'll see whether the GISS data is confirmed by the other datasets. My guess is that the outcomes will likely be in line with those of GISS.

For another perspective, the NOAA's Earth System Research Laboratory's plotted re-analysis data for October is below:

ESRLOct2015.jpg
 
Interesting how they have already done away with the inconvenient 1998 peak in their 'adjustments'

I guess they thought enough time had passed that everyone would have forgotten about it :cool:
 
donsutherland1 said:
The just released data for October from the GISS dataset revealed a +1.04°C anomaly. That figure, which remains subject to modest revision, was above the previously record of +0.97°C, which was established in January 2007. It is only the 5th anomaly of +0.90°C or higher on the GISS dataset, which dates back to 1880. Those anomalies are as follows:

1. +1.04°C, October 2015
2. +0.97°C, January 2007
3. +0.93°C, March 2010
4. +0.91°C, March 2002
5. +0.90°C, March 2015

For the first 10 months, 2015 has an average anomaly of +0.82°C. That previous highest anomaly for the January-October period was +0.75°C, which was established in 2014.

Every month saw 2015 achieve the 4th highest figure for that month or higher:

January: 2nd highest January anomaly
February 2nd highest February anomaly
March: 3rd highest March anomaly (5th highest monthly anomaly)
April: 4th highest April anomaly
May: 2nd highest May anomaly
June: Highest June anomaly
July: 2nd highest July anomaly
August: 2nd highest August anomaly
September: 2nd highest September anomaly
October: Highest October anomaly (highest monthly anomaly)

Existing Monthly Records for November and December:
November: +0.81°C, 2013
December: +0.79°C, 2014

Both monthly figures could be approached or surpassed.

2014 established the annual record of +0.74°C. To put things into context, 2015 would match that record if November and December had average anomalies of +0.35°C. The last time there were two consecutive months that were as cool was January-February 2008. During that time, there was a very strong La Niña event underway. This time around a strong El Niño event is ongoing. Therefore, it is extremely likely that 2015 will establish a new temperature record.
Click to expand...

And do you believe it means anything specific.
 
joG said:
And do you believe it means anything specific.
Click to expand...
"it is extremely likely that 2015 will establish a new temperature record" seems pretty specific.
 
flogger said:
Interesting how they have already done away with the inconvenient 1998 peak in their 'adjustments'

I guess they thought enough time had passed that everyone would have forgotten about it :cool:
Click to expand...

The above chart is the chart for October, only. It is not an annual chart. On all the major datasets (GISS, Hadley, NCDC), 1998 has been surpassed. 2014 is currently the warmest year on record. 2015 is poised to beat that mark.
 
joG said:
And do you believe it means anything specific.
Click to expand...

Two things:

1. 2015 has had the warmest global land and ocean surface temperature anomalies on record on GISS (January-October).
2. It is extremely likely that 2015 will wind up with the warmest annual temperature anomalies on record on GISS.
 
donsutherland1 said:
Two things:

1. 2015 has had the warmest global land and ocean surface temperature anomalies on record on GISS (January-October).
2. It is extremely likely that 2015 will wind up with the warmest annual temperature anomalies on record on GISS.
Click to expand...

Its simply not reflected in the UAH RSS satellite record. James Hansen the inventor of AGW had stewardship of GISS until fairly recently. His history of adjustments to surface records both past and present in support of his 'baby' has been well catalogued. Old habits die hard
 
flogger said:
Interesting how they have already done away with the inconvenient 1998 peak in their 'adjustments'

I guess they thought enough time had passed that everyone would have forgotten about it :cool:
Click to expand...

Did October of 1998 show a significant spike on the anomaly scale?
 
flogger said:
Cuz GISS said so eh ? :yawn:
Click to expand...

Well...considering the post is specifically about what the GISS reported...then yea...it is "cuz GISS said so."
 
Visbek said:
"it is extremely likely that 2015 will establish a new temperature record" seems pretty specific.
Click to expand...

But that is only a fact not a meaning.
 
donsutherland1 said:
Two things:

1. 2015 has had the warmest global land and ocean surface temperature anomalies on record on GISS (January-October).
2. It is extremely likely that 2015 will wind up with the warmest annual temperature anomalies on record on GISS.
Click to expand...

I realize that. But do you interpret that as significant of longer term trending or of a more local phenomenon of say 50 or 80 years? Or do you take a more so it is and we shall see view?
 
flogger said:
Its simply not reflected in the UAH RSS satellite record. James Hansen the inventor of AGW had stewardship of GISS until fairly recently. His history of adjustments to surface records both past and present in support of his 'baby' has been well catalogued. Old habits die hard
Click to expand...

UAH and RSS indirectly measure lower tropospheric temperatures (surface and atmosphere). Even if one throws out GISS (and I don't think there's sufficient reason to do so), the other surface datasets also provide a reasonably consistent picture. The independent Berkeley Earth review's findings indicated that the major land surface datasets reasonably represent global temperatures since 1880.

http://www.scitechnol.com/2327-4581/2327-4581-1-101.pdf
 
joG said:
I realize that. But do you interpret that as significant of longer term trending or of a more local phenomenon of say 50 or 80 years? Or do you take a more so it is and we shall see view?
Click to expand...

I don't think one can draw conclusions strictly from 2015.

What appears clear is that the observed ongoing warming trend continues. The anomalies are a function of rising greenhouse gas forcing, natural forcings, and various cycles (Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation), and possible second order effects related to such factors as ice, snow cover changes, etc. Greenhouse gas forcing is continuing to increase. The other forcings and cycles don't really display any dramatic changes to offset it. Solar activity may be headed for a longer-term minimum, and that could partially offset the increased forcing from greenhouse gases. Overall, if the current state of knowledge is reliable, the long-term should see continued warming, though there will be year-to-year and even decadal-scale fluctuations. The period of slowed warming (aka the "pause") is an example of a decadal-scale fluctuation, although at least one paper suggests that it largely disappears when a new sea surface temperature dataset is used. The proverbial jury is still out on that paper and its findings.
 
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Here are the changes GISS made to the Global Historical Climate Network [GHCN] since 2005:

wck4lc.jpg


It's noteworthy that prior to about 1980 changes were made up and down,
but mostly down, and since 1980 all the changes have been upwards.


|
 
No wonder the GISS is showing warmer, they have been cooking the books!:mrgreen:
 
flogger said:
Its simply not reflected in the UAH RSS satellite record.
Click to expand...

Apples to oranges. Satellites don't measure surface temps, they measure airmasses considerably above the ground. In the case of both UAH and RSS, TLT (lowest altitude range) includes part of the stratosphere where it's cooling (thanks to more CO2), plus the transition zone in the upper troposphere where trends are much lower than at the surface. Thus satellite trends must be lower than surface trends.

flogger said:
James Hansen the inventor of AGW
Click to expand...
If Hansen "invented" AGW, how come Exxon knew about it in 1978?

flogger said:
... had stewardship of GISS until fairly recently. His history of adjustments to surface records both past and present in support of his 'baby' has been well catalogued. Old habits die hard
Click to expand...

So what's your recommendation? Leave a known error in the data? Or correct the data to remove the error?
 
Last edited:
Steve Case said:
|

Here are the changes GISS made to the Global Historical Climate Network [GHCN] since 2005:

wck4lc.jpg


It's noteworthy that prior to about 1980 changes were made up and down,
but mostly down, and since 1980 all the changes have been upwards.


|
Click to expand...

That's because the 1980s saw the introduction of PCs and automated data gathering, including the switch from thermometers to thermocouples. Same question then:

What's your recommendation? Leave a known error in the data? Or correct the data to remove the error?
 
longview said:
No wonder the GISS is showing warmer, they have been cooking the books!:mrgreen:
Click to expand...

Same question:

What's your recommendation? Leave a known error in the data? Or correct the data to remove the error?
 
donsutherland1 said:
The just released data for October from the GISS dataset revealed a +1.04°C anomaly. That figure, which remains subject to modest revision, was above the previously record of +0.97°C, which was established in January 2007. It is only the 5th anomaly of +0.90°C or higher on the GISS dataset, which dates back to 1880. Those anomalies are as follows:

1. +1.04°C, October 2015
2. +0.97°C, January 2007
3. +0.93°C, March 2010
4. +0.91°C, March 2002
5. +0.90°C, March 2015

For the first 10 months, 2015 has an average anomaly of +0.82°C. That previous highest anomaly for the January-October period was +0.75°C, which was established in 2014.

Every month saw 2015 achieve the 4th highest figure for that month or higher:

January: 2nd highest January anomaly
February 2nd highest February anomaly
March: 3rd highest March anomaly (5th highest monthly anomaly)
April: 4th highest April anomaly
May: 2nd highest May anomaly
June: Highest June anomaly
July: 2nd highest July anomaly
August: 2nd highest August anomaly
September: 2nd highest September anomaly
October: Highest October anomaly (highest monthly anomaly)

Existing Monthly Records for November and December:
November: +0.81°C, 2013
December: +0.79°C, 2014

Both monthly figures could be approached or surpassed.

2014 established the annual record of +0.74°C. To put things into context, 2015 would match that record if November and December had average anomalies of +0.35°C. The last time there were two consecutive months that were as cool was January-February 2008. During that time, there was a very strong La Niña event underway. This time around a strong El Niño event is ongoing. Therefore, it is extremely likely that 2015 will establish a new temperature record.
Click to expand...

GISS is corrupted by "Adjustments" that raise rural to match City temps.
 
Poor Debater said:
That's because the 1980s saw the introduction of PCs and automated
data gathering, including the switch from thermometers to thermocouples. Same question then:

What's your recommendation? Leave a known error in the data?
Or correct the data to remove the error?
Click to expand...

Hmmm, so if the 1980s introduced PCs and automated data plus
a switch to thermocouples, then why did GISS find it necessary
to correct data after that date if they were so accurate?
And if they were correcting the thermometers, that persisted
after 1980, why did the correction go the other way?

My recommendation is to find out what the hell is going on.
 
Steve Case said:
Hmmm, so if the 1980s introduced PCs and automated data plus
a switch to thermocouples, then why did GISS find it necessary
to correct data after that date if they were so accurate?
And if they were correcting the thermometers, that persisted
after 1980, why did the correction go the other way?
Click to expand...
Q. Why use the adjusted rather than the "raw" data?

A. GISS uses temperature data for long-term climate studies. For station data to be useful for such studies, it is essential that the time series of observations are consistent, and that any non-climatic temperature jumps, introduced by station moves or equipment updates, are corrected for. In adjusted data the effect of such non-climatic influences is eliminated whenever possible. Originally, only documented cases were adjusted, however the current procedure used by NOAA/NCEI applies an automated system that uses systematic comparisons with neighboring stations to deal with undocumented instances of artificial changes. The processes and evaluation of these procedures are described in numerous publications — for instance, Menne et al., 2010 and Venema et al., 2012 — and at the NOAA/NCEI website.

Data.GISS: GISTEMP -- Frequently Asked Questions

"What the hell is going on" is that climatologists are producing consistent numbers. They just aren't the numbers that the denialists usually want to see.
 
Visbek said:
"What the hell is going on" is that climatologists are producing consistent numbers. They just aren't the numbers that the denialists usually want to see.
Click to expand...

Uh huh, except that those "corrections/numbers' have a consistently distinctive pattern.
 
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