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Global Warming Will Help Us in the Middle East...

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MrT

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...by turning the region into an in-hospital region with a heat index of 170 degrees Fahrenheit on a semi-regular occasion.

Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

Extreme heat waves with conditions “intolerable to humans" may become a regular occurrence in the Persian Gulf by century’s end, according to a study evaluating the consequences of unchecked global warming.

Temperature and humidity levels exceeding anything previously recorded on earth may bake major cities including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Dharhan, according to the research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. Less severe but still “extremely dangerous" heat waves, now seen once every 20 years or so, would become “the normal summer day," said Elfatih Eltahir, an engineering professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-authored the paper.
 
MrT said:
...by turning the region into an in-hospital region with a heat index of 170 degrees Fahrenheit on a semi-regular occasion.

Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

Extreme heat waves with conditions “intolerable to humans" may become a regular occurrence in the Persian Gulf by century’s end, according to a study evaluating the consequences of unchecked global warming.

Temperature and humidity levels exceeding anything previously recorded on earth may bake major cities including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Dharhan, according to the research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. Less severe but still “extremely dangerous" heat waves, now seen once every 20 years or so, would become “the normal summer day," said Elfatih Eltahir, an engineering professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-authored the paper.
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This will greatly drive up the price of oil, which may - may - help decrease our addiction to it.
 
MrT said:
...by turning the region into an in-hospital region with a heat index of 170 degrees Fahrenheit on a semi-regular occasion.

Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

Extreme heat waves with conditions “intolerable to humans" may become a regular occurrence in the Persian Gulf by century’s end, according to a study evaluating the consequences of unchecked global warming.

Temperature and humidity levels exceeding anything previously recorded on earth may bake major cities including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Dharhan, according to the research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. Less severe but still “extremely dangerous" heat waves, now seen once every 20 years or so, would become “the normal summer day," said Elfatih Eltahir, an engineering professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-authored the paper.
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The majority of the warming observed globally has been an increase in T-min, the nighttime lows not going so low.
This accounts for about 75% of all of the greenhouse warming.
Since the TSI is in decline, and most of the warming is at night, the T-Max may not increase much at all.
Analysis of diurnal air temperature range change in the continental United States
DTR has steadily decreased throughout the United States (Karl et al., 1991), which can be attributed to the increase in mean daily temperature and a steady daily maximum temperature
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It does get hot enough there already, that if humans alter the land use, they could, and probably
do already have heat advisory days.
Our Human heat engine does not function well at 100% RH, when the temperatures are above 98.6 F,
Thankfully those conditions do not occur often in nature.
 
MrT said:
...by turning the region into an in-hospital region with a heat index of 170 degrees Fahrenheit on a semi-regular occasion.

Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

Extreme heat waves with conditions “intolerable to humans" may become a regular occurrence in the Persian Gulf by century’s end, according to a study evaluating the consequences of unchecked global warming.

Temperature and humidity levels exceeding anything previously recorded on earth may bake major cities including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Dharhan, according to the research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. Less severe but still “extremely dangerous" heat waves, now seen once every 20 years or so, would become “the normal summer day," said Elfatih Eltahir, an engineering professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-authored the paper.
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How will that help us? Europe is already having a bad time with immigrants from the ME, and if that area becomes inhospitable to human life, all of those people whose culture is stuck in the 7th Century will be going all over the world - how is that a good thing for us? Right now, their pretty much sequestered over there.
 
Beaudreaux said:
How will that help us? Europe is already having a bad time with immigrants from the ME, and if that area becomes inhospitable to human life, all of those people whose culture is stuck in the 7th Century will be going all over the world - how is that a good thing for us? Right now, their pretty much sequestered over there.
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This is a much more accurate portrayal of some of the problems posed by Climate Change than my factitious post.
 
MrT said:
This is a much more accurate portrayal of some of the problems posed by Climate Change than my factitious post.
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I don't believe that the situation will get to that point, though. As has been shown earlier, the T-min is what has been elevating rather than the T-max. Which also explains the melting of glaciers and the polar ice pack - which have begun to reestablish their recent losses by refreezing and growing.

There's just to many moving parts to our global climate to actually predict with any real accuracy and specificity (such as how hot the daily highs will be in the ME) what will happen. We can only prognosticate in the macro, not the micro. And, as I stated about the polar ice pack beginning to recover, even our macro predictions are looking like they may need adjusting.

I'm not denying climate change. I'm just questioning our ability to be accurate about what it means given our recent miscalculations and reversals.
 
MrT said:
...by turning the region into an in-hospital region with a heat index of 170 degrees Fahrenheit on a semi-regular occasion.

Future temperature in southwest Asia projected to exceed a threshold for human adaptability : Nature Climate Change : Nature Publishing Group

Extreme heat waves with conditions “intolerable to humans" may become a regular occurrence in the Persian Gulf by century’s end, according to a study evaluating the consequences of unchecked global warming.

Temperature and humidity levels exceeding anything previously recorded on earth may bake major cities including Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Doha and Dharhan, according to the research published Monday in the journal Nature Climate Change. Less severe but still “extremely dangerous" heat waves, now seen once every 20 years or so, would become “the normal summer day," said Elfatih Eltahir, an engineering professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology who co-authored the paper.
Click to expand...

Well, if the warming is due to the changing CO2 in the greenhouse gas mix, the hypothesis say that warm areas barely get warmer, and the cold regions get most the warming.

I'll read the paper though, and see what they are saying.

I'll get back with a response later.
 
Nothing compelling against AGW to see from that paper.

That region of the world has been getting dryer and dryer as a trend for centuries. Looks like it's getting more humid now.

The paper focuses on increased wet bulb temperatures, not dry bulb. One conclusion is the humidity is increasing, and associated warming would be from water vapor increases.

They model their beliefs with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios.

I can see how this would be misunderstood by people who don't know the applicable sciences as to what wet bulb temperatures represent.

There is no way to conclude the increased humidity is feedback from CO2. It can be natural.

Looking at the severity they model, I wonder if it would fall out as rain instead of ever increasing TW (temperture wet bulb), and if the region would actually become more temperate again like it was in Pharaohs time?

Looking at their modeling, and available humidity charts, they are implying (intended or not) the humidity will increase to a 40% to 60% RH range in the future. Looks like rain to me, when it cools at night!
 
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longview said:
Our Human heat engine does not function well at 100% RH, when the temperatures are above 98.6 F
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In Washington DC we call that "July".
 
longview said:
I know it feels like it, but that combination rarely exists.
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I know, I was being facetious. But living in a swamp plays tricks on the mind. ;)
 
Such a scenario would turn much of our Midwest into a dessert- something to consider when gloating over another's demise... :peace
 
flogger said:
Its thanks to oil that you have the modern comfortable society you live in today. Its hardly an addiction
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Hm. Perhaps you don't understand why addicts often stay addicted - they feel a heck of a lot better when they have ready access to whatever it is they're addicted to.
 
Glen Contrarian said:
Hm. Perhaps you don't understand why addicts often stay addicted - they feel a heck of a lot better when they have ready access to whatever it is they're addicted to.
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You do realise I hope that it was affordable oil that was the cornerstone of the post WW2 global recovery and it is still vital for the maintenance of an economically viable modern economy today.

Green idealism isn't
 
notquiteright said:
Far from it, I ALWAYS laugh when someone says something humorous- you'll see if you ever post something funny... :peace
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Most humorless people don't know they are humorless.
 
flogger said:
You do realise I hope that it was affordable oil that was the cornerstone of the post WW2 global recovery and it is still vital for the maintenance of an economically viable modern economy today.

Green idealism isn't
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I strongly agree that it was affordable oil that was and is still a cornerstone of the global economy. That said, oil is still a finite resource and is the main contributor to AGW. Just as global transportation transited from coal to oil, it only makes sense that at some point we should transit from oil to a better source of power. Nuclear IMO makes much more sense for industrial-scale power generation, but what I'm holding out hope for is Lockheed's Skunk Works declaration that they will have a working fusion reactor within a decade, one that can fit on the back of a truck. If that pans out, sheer economic pressure will force a transition to fusion. We've all seen so many claims for fusion fail miserably that we've all to some extent disheartened with the prospect...but the Skunk Works name carries enough weight that I'm indeed hopeful once more.

That said, we'll never in the foreseeable future be able to ignore oil completely - we're too dependent upon plastics and lubricants to do otherwise.
 
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