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Scientific consensus has gotten a bad reputation—and it doesn’t deserve it

"Climastrologist" is a term invented by deniers that mis-characterizes the field of climate science as being not based in sound science.

I think it fits rather nicely. Anything that is said that doesn't agree with their beliefs is treated like the satanic verses, or something.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neologism
 
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I think it fits rather nicely. Anything that is said that doesn't agree with their beliefs is treated like the satanic verses, or something.

When we have conversations discussing denier "evidence" it is always determined to be made in error. Your inability to understand that part is where the problem is.
 
When we have conversations discussing denier "evidence" it is always determined to be made in error. Your inability to understand that part is where the problem is.

Hard to have those conversations because you keep running from the data.

Prof. H. Svensmark: The Impact of Solar Activities and ...

► 34:08► 34:08
www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDTmM74nDcw
Jun 4, 2014 - Uploaded by EikeKlimaEnergie
Published on Jun 4, 2014. Prof. Hernryk Svensmark vom Centre for Sun-Climate Research of Danish ...​
 
Hard to have those conversations because you keep running from the data.

This is a perfect example. Jack, we discussed how the only person that comes to the conclusions of Svensmark, is Svensmark. I showed you three separate sources that all attempted to replicate his work and they all came up empty showing almost zero correlation between cosmic rays and cloud cover. Upon perusal of this information you declared it all null and void, made some excuses and moved on as though the dissenting information never existed.

This is why you guys cannot be reasoned with because you only accept information that aligns with your belief systems.
 
Did you even try reading the article? This obsessive spiel of yours is not constructive, you post it in every thread, you talk about it incessantly.



I read the article and it says that a consensus exists on broad principles, but that it really has no justification since the science cannot reconcile the deviations between predictions and reality, specifically on clouds and aerosols.

It doesn't mention most of the other 50 or so variables that cannot be accurately quantified as well and implies that the understanding is almost entirely complete.

In most of science, consensus is just a footnote in that everyone agreeing that gravity, as an example, works as it does really has no effect on anything as gravity actually DOES work as it does. Consensus in this arena will not enhance or erode the response by governments to gravity.

The consensus is really the only thing about AGW that lends any credibility to the discipline in any way. The consensus is the only thing in the Science of AGW that is constant and compelling. The actual science is incomplete, conjecture, wildly imaginative and sensationalized.
 
The IPCC reports are intended to summarize the breadth of current science - the current 'consensus,' in other words. If not 97%, then at least 80 or 90% of experts in each area are likely to hold opinions consistent with the IPCC publications. That's why their temperature projections do in fact include those lower end estimates, as well as the higher ones. For every scientist who believes that ECS is down nearer 1.5 degrees, there's another who believes that it's closer to 4.5.



Do you have a link that supports this?
 
You are asking for a link to logic. What he said is self-evident.
 
Do you have a link that supports this?

The part about the IPCC representing the breadth of current scientific opinion, fringe notions aside, yes; that's the organization's stated purpose.

The part about an equivalency between the low and high ends of their estimated 'likely' range for equilibrium climate sensitivity - 1.5 to 4.5 degrees - no.

That was a guess, and an incorrect one as it turns out: On average between the three categories of studies used (instrumental, paleoclimate and combination), the probability distributions seem to most heavily favour the 2-3 degree range, but there's more support for lower (c. 1.5 degree) possibilities than for 4 degrees or higher.

AR5 WG1 Figure 10.20b



You are asking for a link to logic. What he said is self-evident.

It seemed like common sense, but it was incorrect.

All possibilities in the 1.5-4.5 degree range would obviously be above a certain threshold of likelihood (however they calculated it), but that needn't mean that it's a symmetrical distribution - which it clearly isn't in the figure above.
 
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This is a perfect example. Jack, we discussed how the only person that comes to the conclusions of Svensmark, is Svensmark. I showed you three separate sources that all attempted to replicate his work and they all came up empty showing almost zero correlation between cosmic rays and cloud cover. Upon perusal of this information you declared it all null and void, made some excuses and moved on as though the dissenting information never existed.

This is why you guys cannot be reasoned with because you only accept information that aligns with your belief systems.

Your examples were obsolete.
 
This is a perfect example. Jack, we discussed how the only person that comes to the conclusions of Svensmark, is Svensmark. I showed you three separate sources that all attempted to replicate his work and they all came up empty showing almost zero correlation between cosmic rays and cloud cover. Upon perusal of this information you declared it all null and void, made some excuses and moved on as though the dissenting information never existed.

This is why you guys cannot be reasoned with because you only accept information that aligns with your belief systems.

New paper corroborates Svensmark's cosmic ray theory of ...

hockeyschtick.blogspot.com/2014/.../new-paper-corroborates-svensmark...
Friday, August 1, 2014. New paper corroborates Svensmark's cosmic ray theory of climate. A paper published today in Atmospheric Research finds ...You visited this page on 8/26/14.

[h=3]New paper corroborates Svensmark's cosmic ray theory of climate[/h]
A paper published today in Atmospheric Research finds observational evidence supporting the Svensmark cosmic ray theory of climate. The authors find weak positive correlation between cloud cover and cosmic ray intensity at a high-altitude observing site from 1982-2010.

According to the authors,

"We studied the relation of cloud cover and cosmic rays during the period 1982–2010 measured at Lomnický štít (2634 m above sea level, in the direction of 49.40°N, 20.22°E, geomagnetic vertical cut-off rigidity for cosmic ray ~ 3.85 GV). Daily means are used. It is seen that the correlations are insignificant for averaging shorter than about one year. We have found weak positive correlation for longer averaging times. Difference in distributions of cosmic ray intensity between the days with cloudless and overcast sky level at α = 0.05 is found in the data."
The Svensmark cosmic ray theory of climate is only one of many solar amplification mechanisms that have been described in the scientific literature.

[h=1]Cloud cover and cosmic ray variations at Lomnický štít high altitude observing site[/h]

[h=2]Highlights[/h]
Weak correlation between cloud cover and cosmic ray intensity observed at a mountain.



[h=2]Abstract[/h] We studied the relation of cloud cover and cosmic rays during the period 1982–2010 measured at Lomnický štít (2634 m above sea level, in the direction of 49.40°N, 20.22°E, geomagnetic vertical cut-off rigidity for cosmic ray ~ 3.85 GV). Daily means are used. It is seen that the correlations are insignificant for averaging shorter than about one year. We have found weak positive correlation for longer averaging times. Difference in distributions of cosmic ray intensity between the days with cloudless and overcast sky level at α = 0.05 is found in the data. In addition to the experiments and clarification of physical mechanisms behind the relations studied here, longer time intervals and analysis at different sites with respect to cut-off rigidity and sea/continents along with the satellite data are important for progress in understanding the cosmic ray–cloud relation questions, at least from the point of view of empirical description of the dependencies.


[TABLE="class: tr-caption-container, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: tr-caption, align: center"]Positive correlations between cloud cover and cosmic rays on various timescales. [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]


 
Please explain why they are "obsolete".

Already did. To repeat: they were submitted before Svensmark's 2012 paper was published by the Royal Astronomical Society. That paper has yet to be challenged by anyone.
 
Already did. To repeat: they were submitted before Svensmark's 2012 paper was published by the Royal Astronomical Society. That paper has yet to be challenged by anyone.

So when Svensmark releases a paper it invalidates all previous scientific work done by others? I've never heard of this mechanic, does it have a name?

What do you mean by "challenge" his paper? Is he no longer doing work concerning cosmic rays and cloud cover?
 
So when Svensmark releases a paper it invalidates all previous scientific work done by others? I've never heard of this mechanic, does it have a name?

What do you mean by "challenge" his paper? Is he no longer doing work concerning cosmic rays and cloud cover?

The RAS paper has now been out for over two years, including a conclusion that temperature drives CO2, rather than the reverse, and there has been no paper attempting to "debunk" the finding. Moreover, the earlier criticisms of Svensmark's earlier work seem to have been significantly over-hyped by a self-referential cheering section ready to declare a "debunking" when none has in fact occurred.
 
The part about the IPCC representing the breadth of current scientific opinion, fringe notions aside, yes; that's the organization's stated purpose.

The part about an equivalency between the low and high ends of their estimated 'likely' range for equilibrium climate sensitivity - 1.5 to 4.5 degrees - no.

That was a guess, and an incorrect one as it turns out: On average between the three categories of studies used (instrumental, paleoclimate and combination), the probability distributions seem to most heavily favour the 2-3 degree range, but there's more support for lower (c. 1.5 degree) possibilities than for 4 degrees or higher.

AR5 WG1 Figure 10.20b


The only reason that I asked was that it seems like the lower end is pretty widely accepted. However, the crowd that is laboring to induce the panic would have us believe that the low end is only the threshold, not the center of the predictions which seems more likely.

When the rest of the range is then piled on top of this, the implication to the uninitiated is the the middle is probably where the outcome will be. The middle, though, does not seem to be a supportable likelihood, although it is possibility like anything else including the globe bursting into flames as it tumbles out of orbit into the Sun.
 
Global cooling
[h=1]Prof Bob Carter warns of unpreparedness for Global Cooling[/h] Eric Worrall writes: Professor Bob Carter, writing in today’s edition of The Australian, a major Aussie daily newspaper, warns that the world is unprepared for imminent global cooling, because of the obsession of policy makers with global warming. According to Bob Carter; Heading for ice age “GRAHAM Lloyd has reported on the Bureau of Meteorology’s…
 
The RAS paper has now been out for over two years, including a conclusion that temperature drives CO2, rather than the reverse, and there has been no paper attempting to "debunk" the finding. Moreover, the earlier criticisms of Svensmark's earlier work seem to have been significantly over-hyped by a self-referential cheering section ready to declare a "debunking" when none has in fact occurred.

Temperature drives Co2 as well as Co2 drives temperature, this has been known for a long time, its called a feedback loop.

You didn't actually answer my question though, what exactly makes all three of those papers obsolete?
 
Temperature drives Co2 as well as Co2 drives temperature, this has been known for a long time, its called a feedback loop.

You didn't actually answer my question though, what exactly makes all three of those papers obsolete?

For the third time: the third is off topic, and the first two preceded Svensmark's work.
 
For the third time: the third is off topic, and the first two preceded Svensmark's work.

Again, what is this mechanic that causes Svensmark's work to invalidate all other work? Why do you think that whatever he outputs magically trumps all others?

The third is not off topic, it is directly on topic.

Cosmic rays, solar activity and the climate - IOPscience

Abstract

Although it is generally believed that the increase in the mean global surface temperature since industrialization is caused by the increase in green house gases in the atmosphere, some people cite solar activity, either directly or through its effect on cosmic rays, as an underestimated contributor to such global warming. In this letter a simplified version of the standard picture of the role of greenhouse gases in causing the global warming since industrialization is described. The conditions necessary for this picture to be wholly or partially wrong are then introduced. Evidence is presented from which the contributions of either cosmic rays or solar activity to this warming is deduced. The contribution is shown to be less than 10% of the warming seen in the twentieth century.
 
Again, what is this mechanic that causes Svensmark's work to invalidate all other work? Why do you think that whatever he outputs magically trumps all others?

The third is not off topic, it is directly on topic.

Cosmic rays, solar activity and the climate - IOPscience

The "tests" the authors set up to evaluate Svensmark's work are not tests that Svensmark would endorse because the claims tested are not claims he would make.
 
The RAS paper has now been out for over two years, including a conclusion that temperature drives CO2, rather than the reverse, and there has been no paper attempting to "debunk" the finding. Moreover, the earlier criticisms of Svensmark's earlier work seem to have been significantly over-hyped by a self-referential cheering section ready to declare a "debunking" when none has in fact occurred.

It seems you don't even know what the paper you're championing says. It doesn't argue that temperature drives CO2; rather that over the past billion years changes in climate have driven changes in the biosphere, and it's the biosphere changes which are the primary influence on CO2 levels. However the assumptions involved are so simplistic that it hardly takes a scientist to note the difficulties:

In short Svensmark proposes the sequence
GCR change -> Cloud cover change -> Climate change -> Diversity/abundance change -> CO2 change
while a different sequence
GCR change -> Mutation change -> Diversity/abundance change -> CO2 change -> Climate change
seems like a plausible alternative, to amateur eyes at least.

That's assuming that the prehistoric changes in galactic cosmic radiation have been as significant as Svensmark asserts in the first place. However that itself is rather dubious. Sloan and Wolfendale 2013 (Cosmic rays and climate change over the past 1000 million years) suggest that:
The Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity has been postulated by others to vary cyclically with a peak to valley ratio of ∼3:1, as the Solar System moves from the Spiral Arm to the Inter-Arm regions of the Galaxy. These intensities have been correlated with global temperatures and used to support the hypothesis of GCR induced climate change. In this paper we show that the model used to deduce such a large ratio of Arm to Interarm GCR intensity requires unlikely values of some of the GCR parameters, particularly the diffusion length in the interstellar medium, if as seems likely to be the case, the diffusion is homogeneous. Comparison is made with the existing gamma ray astronomy data and this also indicates that the ratio is not large. The variation in the intensity is probably of order 10–20% and should be no more than 30% as the Solar System moves between these two regions, unless the conventional parameters of the GCR are incorrect.​

In another 2013 paper (Cosmic rays, solar activity and the climate) Sloan and Wolfendale further examine the GCR hypothesis:
Although it is generally believed that the increase in the mean global surface temperature since industrialization is caused by the increase in green house gases in the atmosphere, some people cite solar activity, either directly or through its effect on cosmic rays, as an underestimated contributor to such global warming. In this letter a simplified version of the standard picture of the role of greenhouse gases in causing the global warming since industrialization is described. The conditions necessary for this picture to be wholly or partially wrong are then introduced. Evidence is presented from which the contributions of either cosmic rays or solar activity to this warming is deduced. The contribution is shown to be less than 10% of the warming seen in the twentieth century.​

They are not the only ones who have critiqued the notion which Svensmark so doggedly pursues. Feng and Bailer-Jones 2013:
Numerous studies have claimed an association between [biodiversity] variation and the motion of the Sun around the Galaxy, invoking the modulation of cosmic rays, gamma rays, and comet impact frequency as a cause of this biodiversity variation. However, some of these studies exhibit methodological problems, or were based on coarse assumptions (such as a strict periodicity of the solar orbit). Here we investigate this link in more detail.... Thus, while we cannot rule out there being some connection between solar motion and biodiversity variations on the Earth, we conclude that it is difficult to give convincing positive conclusions of such a connection using current data.​

Krissansen-Totton and Davies 2013:
Our long-term analysis of MISR data finds no statistically significant correlations between cosmic rays and global albedo or globally averaged cloud height, and no evidence for any regional or lagged correlations.​

Benestad 2013:
A set of Monte Carlo simulations nevertheless indicated that the weak amplitude of the global mean temperature response associated with GCR could easily be due to chance (p-value?=?0.6), and there has been no trend in the GCR. Hence, there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming.​

Laken et al 2013:
Despite over 35 years of constant satellite-based measurements of cloud, reliable evidence of a long-hypothesized link between changes in solar activity and Earth’s cloud cover remains elusive. . . . At present, two long-term independent global satellite cloud datasets are available (ISCCP and MODIS). Although the differences between them are considerable, neither shows evidence of a solar-cloud link at either long or short timescales. Furthermore, reports of observed correlations between solar activity and cloud over the 1983–1995 period are attributed to the chance agreement between solar changes and artificially induced cloud trends.​

Erlykin et al 2013:
The problem of the contribution of cosmic rays to climate change is a continuing one and one of importance. In principle, at least, the recent results from the CLOUD project at CERN provide information about the role of ionizing particles in ’sensitizing’ atmospheric aerosols which might, later, give rise to cloud droplets. Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H2SO4 is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of stratospheric aerosol changes following a giant solar energetic particles event shows a similar negligible effect. Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there would be a small global cooling, not warming.​

It seems your "self-referential cheering" over your blind assumption that "there has been no paper attempting to 'debunk' the finding" was more than a little premature :lol:

And these are just papers from 2013: ScepticalScience.com provides further links to numerous earlier studies which had been casting doubt on the hypothesis since Svensmark first decided to run with it in 1998. Of course, just glancing over the most obvious available data even I had already pointed out to you the last 50 years' non-correlation between GCR and temperature and various other problems, in the discussion quoted above :roll:
 
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Again, what is this mechanic that causes Svensmark's work to invalidate all other work? Why do you think that whatever he outputs magically trumps all others?

The third is not off topic, it is directly on topic.

Cosmic rays, solar activity and the climate - IOPscience

Svensmark Hits Back At Scienceblog's Florian Freistetter ...

notrickszone.com › Our Climate In PicturesSolar Sciences
Feb 17, 2012 - There's been lots of disingenuous criticism from the CO2 end-of the world warmists and Armageddonists aimed at Fritz Vahrenholt's and

In Svensmark's own words:

Some people, including your critic Florian Freistetter on ScienceBlog, seem to think that physics is a democratic process and what matters is to count how many papers favour or disfavour each hypothesis. That of course is nonsense. All that really signifies is the evidence from observations and experiments, and how a theory stands up to attempts to falsify it. Remember Einstein’s comment on the pamphlet Hundert Autoren gegen Einstein (1931) – “If I were wrong, one would be enough”.
The hypothesis that cosmic rays strongly affect the climate offers a serious challenge to the more fashionable hypothesis that man-made greenhouse gases have been the main cause of climate changes. So it does not surprise me that many people try to falsify it. In fact it’s quite flattering that they go to so much trouble, when one good outcome (for them) should be enough, and in my opinion no such paper has been produced so far.
Freistetter suggests that all the recent papers say I’m wrong. That shows he is not very familiar with the climate physics literature. I think he has gone to some trouble to select papers against the cosmic-ray theory and ignore the favourable ones.
There are two main topics in the criticism, (1) the question of whether detectable changes in aerosols affects cloud microphysics after sudden “Forbush decreases” in cosmic-ray intensities. Since if this is the case it shows that variations in the nucleation of small aerosols (3 nm) can grow into cloud condensation nuclei ( > 50 nm) in the real atmosphere in direct contrast to results from numerical models. Future experiments will of course be able to clear up these questions, and (2) interpretation of the CLOUD experiment at CERN. My co-author for The Chilling Stars, Nigel Calder, has dealt with both topics on his blog, and I suggest that readers go there for more information …
On Forbush decreases and mistakes made by critics:
Do clouds disappear? | Calder's Updates
On a detected effect of Forbush decreases on the weather in Europe:
Do clouds disappear? (4) | Calder's Updates
On CERN results:
CERN experiment confirms cosmic ray action | Calder's Updates
 
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It seems you don't even know what the paper you're championing says. It doesn't argue that temperature drives CO2; rather that over the past billion years changes in climate have driven changes in the biosphere, and it's the biosphere changes which are the primary influence on CO2 levels. However the assumptions involved are so simplistic that it hardly takes a scientist to note the difficulties:



That's assuming that the prehistoric changes in galactic cosmic radiation have been as significant as Svensmark asserts in the first place. However that itself is rather dubious. Sloan and Wolfendale 2013 (Cosmic rays and climate change over the past 1000 million years) suggest that:
The Galactic cosmic ray (GCR) intensity has been postulated by others to vary cyclically with a peak to valley ratio of ∼3:1, as the Solar System moves from the Spiral Arm to the Inter-Arm regions of the Galaxy. These intensities have been correlated with global temperatures and used to support the hypothesis of GCR induced climate change. In this paper we show that the model used to deduce such a large ratio of Arm to Interarm GCR intensity requires unlikely values of some of the GCR parameters, particularly the diffusion length in the interstellar medium, if as seems likely to be the case, the diffusion is homogeneous. Comparison is made with the existing gamma ray astronomy data and this also indicates that the ratio is not large. The variation in the intensity is probably of order 10–20% and should be no more than 30% as the Solar System moves between these two regions, unless the conventional parameters of the GCR are incorrect.​

In another 2013 paper (Cosmic rays, solar activity and the climate) Sloan and Wolfendale further examine the GCR hypothesis:
Although it is generally believed that the increase in the mean global surface temperature since industrialization is caused by the increase in green house gases in the atmosphere, some people cite solar activity, either directly or through its effect on cosmic rays, as an underestimated contributor to such global warming. In this letter a simplified version of the standard picture of the role of greenhouse gases in causing the global warming since industrialization is described. The conditions necessary for this picture to be wholly or partially wrong are then introduced. Evidence is presented from which the contributions of either cosmic rays or solar activity to this warming is deduced. The contribution is shown to be less than 10% of the warming seen in the twentieth century.​

They are not the only ones who have critiqued the notion which Svensmark so doggedly pursues. Feng and Bailer-Jones 2013:
Numerous studies have claimed an association between [biodiversity] variation and the motion of the Sun around the Galaxy, invoking the modulation of cosmic rays, gamma rays, and comet impact frequency as a cause of this biodiversity variation. However, some of these studies exhibit methodological problems, or were based on coarse assumptions (such as a strict periodicity of the solar orbit). Here we investigate this link in more detail.... Thus, while we cannot rule out there being some connection between solar motion and biodiversity variations on the Earth, we conclude that it is difficult to give convincing positive conclusions of such a connection using current data.​

Krissansen-Totton and Davies 2013:
Our long-term analysis of MISR data finds no statistically significant correlations between cosmic rays and global albedo or globally averaged cloud height, and no evidence for any regional or lagged correlations.​

Benestad 2013:
A set of Monte Carlo simulations nevertheless indicated that the weak amplitude of the global mean temperature response associated with GCR could easily be due to chance (p-value?=?0.6), and there has been no trend in the GCR. Hence, there is little empirical evidence that links GCR to the recent global warming.​

Laken et al 2013:
Despite over 35 years of constant satellite-based measurements of cloud, reliable evidence of a long-hypothesized link between changes in solar activity and Earth’s cloud cover remains elusive. . . . At present, two long-term independent global satellite cloud datasets are available (ISCCP and MODIS). Although the differences between them are considerable, neither shows evidence of a solar-cloud link at either long or short timescales. Furthermore, reports of observed correlations between solar activity and cloud over the 1983–1995 period are attributed to the chance agreement between solar changes and artificially induced cloud trends.​

Erlykin et al 2013:
The problem of the contribution of cosmic rays to climate change is a continuing one and one of importance. In principle, at least, the recent results from the CLOUD project at CERN provide information about the role of ionizing particles in ’sensitizing’ atmospheric aerosols which might, later, give rise to cloud droplets. Our analysis shows that, although important in cloud physics the results do not lead to the conclusion that cosmic rays affect atmospheric clouds significantly, at least if H2SO4 is the dominant source of aerosols in the atmosphere. An analysis of the very recent studies of stratospheric aerosol changes following a giant solar energetic particles event shows a similar negligible effect. Recent measurements of the cosmic ray intensity show that a former decrease with time has been reversed. Thus, even if cosmic rays enhanced cloud production, there would be a small global cooling, not warming.​

It seems your "self-referential cheering" over your blind assumption that "there has been no paper attempting to 'debunk' the finding" was more than a little premature :lol:

And these are just papers from 2013: ScepticalScience.com provides further links to numerous earlier studies which had been casting doubt on the hypothesis since Svensmark first decided to run with it in 1998. Of course, just glancing over the most obvious available data even I had already pointed out to you the last 50 years' non-correlation between GCR and temperature and various other problems, in the discussion quoted above :roll:

All fair but does not touch the core of Svensmark's hypothesis.
 
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