Thread: Livingston and Penn paper: “Sunspots may vanish by 2015″.

Originally Posted by Deuce

Seems like a friendly one, doesn't he? I'm still trying to figure out what "re-volcanism" is.

Anyway, in light of the fact that solar activity is currently on the rise, how do you see this idea that sunspots may vanish 3 years from now?

I'm curious where you got that info, do you have a site? I hope you are right, the thought of a sudden little ice age period sends shivers up my spine. I bought land 3 miles up a private road I have to plow in winter with the thought that we seem to be in a warming period and I could plow it in winter easy enough. Since then we have had record or near record snowfalls. I am being serious too, I bought near the Columbia river where theres less snow anyway than North Idaho and I was hoping maybe it would start raining here more in winter and snowing less. Hasn't worked out so far.

As for what I see sunspots doing, I have no idea and didn't say I bought into that guys thesis but it was an interesting read. As I said in the op I heard the theory before but never actually read the paper. Also as I said IF I was going to panic about something it would be a sudden mini ice age more than AGW.

Greg's TSI Page

My search found this.


Solar activity report: the sun is still in a funk

Posted on July 9, 2011by Anthony Watts


"The current prediction for Sunspot Cycle 24 gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of about 69 in June of 2013. We are currently over two and a half years into Cycle 24. Three consecutive months with average daily sunspot numbers above 40 has raised the predicted maximum above the 64.2 for the Cycle 14 maximum in 1907.

The predicted size would make this the smallest sunspot cycle in over 100 years."

archibald_july2011_solar_fig0.jpg

Solar activity report: the sun is still in a funk | Watts Up With That?

NASA/Marshall Solar Physics| Updated 2012/07/02

ssn_recent2.gif

Originally Posted by sawyerloggingon

My search found this.
Solar activity report: the sun is still in a funk
Posted on July 9, 2011 by Anthony Watts

Still a whole year behind reality??? You do know they post monthly updates of this stuff on-line?

Originally Posted by MoSurveyor

NASA/Marshall Solar Physics| Updated 2012/07/02

ssn_recent2.gif


Still a whole year behind reality??? You do know they post monthly updates of this stuff on-line?

Actually you can get daily updates but the trend is more important than the micro data. It's the big picture thing.





Solar wind
speed: 413.9 km/sec
density: 0.6 protons/cm3
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at 1436 UT




X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: C5 1130 UT Jul31
24-hr: C6 0000 UT Jul31
explanation | more data
Updated: Today at: 1400 UT









Daily Sun: 31 Jul 12

Here's a big picture overview. Geeez, maybe I should panic and maybe you should buy that coat while it's on sale.

"Daily observations of the number of sunspots since 1 January 1900 according to Solar Influences Data Analysis Center (SIDC). The thin line indicates the daily sunspot number, while the dark grey line indicates the running annual average. The recent low sunspot activity is clearly reflected in the recent low values for the total solar irradiance. Last day shown: 30 June 2012. Last diagram update: 15 July 2012. "

SIDC%20DailySunspotNumberSince1900.jpg

climate4you Sun

Ya know I'm sorry I brought this up, the more research I do the more scarted I get!

Home U.K. Home News Sport U.S. Showbiz Femail Health Science Money RightMinds Travel Columnists Science Home Pictures Gadgets Gifts and Toys Store My Profile Logout Login Find a Job M&S Wine Our Papers Feedback Tuesday, Jul 31 2012 3PM 23°F 6PM 23°F 5-Day Forecast Is 'global cooling' on the way? Lake sediment proves sun cooled earth 2,800 years ago - and it could happen again soon
Lake sediment proves 'solar minimum' caused 200 years of cooling 2,800 years ago
New minimum due soon - after this year's increased sunspot activity
Sun's activity CAN cause changes in Earth's climate, claim scientists
May throw predictions of global warming out of whack
By Rob Waugh
PUBLISHED: 04:00 EST, 9 May 2012 | UPDATED: 07:23 EST, 9 May 2012
Comments (-) Share
When the Greek poet Homer was writing The Odyssey around 2,800 years ago, the Earth went through an abrupt period of cooling, caused by the sun - and the same could happen again soon.
Scientists at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences analysed lake sediment in Lake Meerfelder Maar, and found direct evidence of a sudden cooling caused by a 'solar minimum'.
Some scientists suspect that the current period of high solar activity - including increased sunspots and solar storms thsi year - will be followed by a 'minimum' period, which could even cause an Ice Age.


Read more: Global cooling? Lake sediment proves solar activity cooled earth 2,800 years ago - and same could be due to happen again | Mail Online

The reason words like "volcanism" don't make sense to you is you need to search: "VOLCANO, TIDAL LUNACY," and you need to ignore links, to wattsupwiththat.com and dailymail.uk.

"Re-volcanism" simply refers to how volcanoes have been active, in the past, and they will become more active, including Yellowstone, in the middle of North America, which will take out the US breadbasket. Also, the Island of La Palma calves about 1/3 of the island, probably the next time their volcano erupts.

Guess what happens, to the Eastern Seaboard, when that rock drops, with a big "SPLOOOOOOSH!!!!"

Look up "sploosh," and see if the only thing that comes up is Anthony Watt.

You also need to ignore the Heartland media, on which you rode in here. Surveyor's NASA and TSI pages seem to be ignored, so you need to hit: "Wikipedia, solar cycle 24, TSI."

You really aren't very good, at media, if you ignore Surveyor, and flee, to wattsupwiththat, dudes.

Solar cycle 24 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

SOLARHAM.com / Solar Cycle 24 / Spaceweather / Amateur Radio VHF Aurora Website

Spaceweathwer.com -- NOAA Predicts Solar Cycle 24

Solar Cycle 24 and 2012 - The Complete Idiots Guide to 2012

Solar Cycle Progression and Prediction

----------------------

If you go to Watt, for your solar media, we need another thread, for this, immediately.

Originally Posted by sawyerloggingon

Ya know I'm sorry I brought this up, the more research I do the more scarted I get!

If you roll five die enough times you will eventually get five sixes on one roll.
Likewise, if you go looking for dire predictions you're likely to find them if you look long enough.

Originally Posted by MoSurveyor

If you roll five die enough times you will eventually get five sixes on one roll.
Likewise, if you go looking for dire predictions you're likely to find them if you look long enough.

Thats what I always say about global warming, we are finally on the same page.