Why is it that so many here feel facts are not important when backing up assumptions?
International Energy Agency - Oil Market Report
dated: 12 April 2011
Global
oil output fell 0.7 mb/d to 88.3 mb/d in March on reduced Libyan crude supply.
OPEC crude
supply fell by 890 kb/d in March to 29.2 mb/d,
Higher anticipated post-earthquake
Japanese oil use for power generation and reconstruction ...
OECD industry stocks fell by 50.8 mb to 2 676 mb, or 59.2 days, in February,
in Japan ... impact of a continuing loss of about 600 kb/d of
refining capacity into 2Q.
It's called peak oil. At some point in the process there is a weak link, beit the ability to get it out of the ground, transport it, or refine it. As those limits are met, prices must go higher to curb demand. So when you ask the question, why is it that as output plateau prices start to spike... It has to do with supply and demand. I have a feeling you are aware of this, but for some reason do not want to accept oil as one of those commodities which has such natural laws effecting it's pricing.