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PBS Frontline tonight: The Warning

Joe1991

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Few people do as good a documentary as Frontline, and no story is perhaps more important to educate ourselves than the economic meltdown.

FRONTLINE: Coming Soon - The Warning | PBS

On air and online October 20, 2009 at 9:00pm eastern

In the devastating aftermath of the economic meltdown, FRONTLINE sifts through the ashes for clues about why it happened and examines critical moments when it might have gone much differently. Looking back into the 1990s, veteran FRONTLINE producer/director Michael Kirk (Inside the Meltdown, Breaking the Bank) discovers early warnings of the crash, reveals an intense battle among high-ranking members of the Clinton administration and uncovers a concerted effort not to regulate the emerging, highly-complex and lucrative derivatives markets that would become the ticking time bomb within the American economy.
 
I hope everyone watched this.

GD Greenspawn and all you ideaological cronies.

Hardline idealogical ideas like "no regulation is best" were stated, held dearly (greenspan in particular), and demonstrated to be wrong.
Greenspawn even had the ethcics to admit he was wrong on that after the meltdown.
What's the correct way?
- Same as every other freaking thing we do correctly. Take in data, analyze it reasonably, and make decisions. And flush ideaology down the toilet, please.
 
I watched it and it seemed to rienforce what a lot of people have already said about the causes of this recession.

I agree with mach, although ideology is important it is also just as important to be pragmatic. The OTC derivatives market was completely free of regulation; it was as close to a free market without government intervention as you could get and it collapsed.
 
I watched it and it seemed to rienforce what a lot of people have already said about the causes of this recession.

I agree with mach, although ideology is important it is also just as important to be pragmatic. The OTC derivatives market was completely free of regulation; it was as close to a free market without government intervention as you could get and it collapsed.

And the debates. Boy, they could have come to DP and we'd set them straight.

The arguments were like:
"I have some of the largest banks in the multiverse in my office telling me that if we regulate these instruments we'll have a collapse that will destroy the world! We're shutting you down for suggesting that we regulate our insane operations!"

So an argument from, apparently, politics. Just go lobby and decisions are made regardless of common sense, reason, evidence, even inquiry...it's amazing. The wonderous thing is they were certain investigating would collapse it, yet it was that philosophy that lead to the collapse. But this way at least they got us to pay for it, and are right back smoking fat cigars.

Solution? Be an investment banker?
 
It was an awesome doc.

Does anyone remember the lady who predicted this financial disaster?
 
I think it was Brooksly Born.

Solution? Be an investment banker?

No kidding, if you get enough people to commit on bad loans or investments you'll get bailed out.

Anyways, I think it is funny how Alan Greenspan would be completely against regulation in the market saying it would slow down the market. Then he turns around and lowers interest rates during the 90's to promote a faster and more free market. Artificially setting the interest rates intervenes in the "free" market more than any regulation could.

I think it made a compound reaction, no regulations in a huge (I thought I heard them say something like $500 some trillion?) and largely misunderstood market and artificially lower interest rates that only encouraged these actions.

Whats really sad is nothing has changed. Ben Bernanke seems to be following a similar policy rather than letting the market set the interest rate and no new regulations have been set to manage the derivatives market.
 
Whats really sad is nothing has changed.

I don't think the federal government can successfully regulate the financial markets in the long run without letting the free market regulate risk taking and poor decision making. There should be no such thing as "too big to fail." If it's too big to fail, then that means it's too big and probably should fail. It's funny how we've come full circle on letting investment banks form commercial bank holding companies that can take on artificially cheap deposits backed by the "full faith and credit" of the federal government. So now depositors can still feel that their money is safe even while their bankers take it and bet it on oil futures or Brazilian reals:

Morgan Stanley (MS) snapped three-straight quarterly losses on Wednesday as the investment bank revved up on risk and got some of its old swagger back.

The investment bank's third quarter was highlighted by strong results in its fixed-income sales and trading, along with higher underwriting fees. Its move to diversify by taking a controlling stake in Citigroup Inc. (C) brokerage Smith Barney also helped drive results.

Morgan Stanley joins firms like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) that have stabilized themselves after last year's financial crisis. It also underscores that Morgan Stanley's strategy to retool itself has begun to pay off.

3rd UPDATE:Morgan Stanley Breaks Loss Streak As Risk Pays Off - WSJ.com
 
Why don't you ask Dick Fuld about that.

I don't understand your comment.

Worst CEO ever, a thief.
But ultra-wealthy?

Sounds like that's what capitalism is designed for. As I stated. One can moan and groan about it, or go grab a slice of their pie and **** on everyone else...in style.

We all die, they just live in style while I grumble out how bad they are. Seems I would be the fool.
 
I don't think the federal government can successfully regulate the financial markets in the long run

Of course not, given that so many financial corproations lobby to ensure they dont' get regulated, or just as good, get regulations that favor them and do nothing to constrain the real issues.

But China will do it and outcompete us if we don't have free reign!! So, give wall street free reign.

But don't claim it's because we "can't regulate them". We just choose not to.
 
I don't think the federal government can successfully regulate the financial markets in the long run without letting the free market regulate risk taking and poor decision making. There should be no such thing as "too big to fail." If it's too big to fail, then that means it's too big and probably should fail. It's funny how we've come full circle on letting investment banks form commercial bank holding companies that can take on artificially cheap deposits backed by the "full faith and credit" of the federal government. So now depositors can still feel that their money is safe even while their bankers take it and bet it on oil futures or Brazilian reals:

I definitely agree with you. The reason so many of the companies got so big was due to government intervention and now we bail them out because they can't make money. We already have a system for them to follow, its called bankruptcy.

I also agree that we have created an environment that promotes risk taking because of our policies. Putting the risk back into the market place would definitely change how many of these banks would do business. We need to place regulation on the banks to hold them liable for their bad decisions, not us. Just as you said, we should separate commercial banks from investment banks.

When I say regulate the OTC derivatives market, I mean we should at least know what is going on so we can prevent fraud. According to the documentary none of these huge transactions were even documented. Huge Banks were gambling our money without even knowing where it was going, and they did not care because the government would insure that money if they lost it.
 
What an eye-opening documentary on this nation's economic problems. People continue to think that what happened one year ago was something new. It was not!

The economic collapse of September 2008 was largely rooted in the subprime mortgage market. I wonder what triggered the 1998 collapse w/Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)? The documentary never says. What it does say, however, is that fourteen of this nation's biggest banks put up $400M each in an effort to stop the bleeding. It worked. So, my questions are:

1) Why didn't the fed tell the banks to do this again - pony up funds to bail out themselves?
2) What was so different about the derivatives structured in the 90's versus those structured in the years leading up to the economic collapse in the fall of 2008?
3) Clearly the fed (treasury) knew of the problems an unregulated derivatives market would have on this nation's economy. Why didn't TPTB do more to stop this eventuality 11 yrs ago?

The answer to #3 is simple, really...investment banks shifty their cash cow from whatever it was that fueled the economy up until 1998 to the housing market (specifically, subprime mortgages). This, of course, brings me right back to my main question: What triggered the 1998 economic collapse that much of the world knew nothing about (except the U.S. and Russia, of course)?

Sidenote to Q1 above: I've stated for a while now that in the wake of what transpired in the fall of 2008, corperate American could not fix itself. As time has passed, I've done my homework and am fairly confident I understanding a decent amount of what happened then to support my position. However, what I don't know exactly is how much debt our nation's banks were carrying at that time in light of what I now know from the Frontline documentary. So, what I'd be interested in knowing is how deep was the 2008 banking debt? Remember: 14 banks paid $400 million each to avoid a $1 trillion economic disaster in 1998. Just how far did this debt go in 2008 and how many financial institutions were actually involved?
 
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The economic collapse of September 2008 was largely rooted in the subprime mortgage market. I wonder what triggered the 1998 collapse w/Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)? The documentary never says. What it does say, however, is that fourteen of this nation's biggest banks put up $400M each in an effort to stop the bleeding. It worked. So, my questions are:

1) Why didn't the fed tell the banks to do this again - pony up funds to bail out themselves?

See response to question #3 below for atleast a partial answer to this question.

2) What was so different about the derivatives structured in the 90's versus those structured in the years leading up to the economic collapse in the fall of 2008?

From Wikipedia:

The company used complex mathematical models to take advantage of fixed income arbitrage deals (termed convergence trades) usually with U.S., Japanese, and European government bonds. Government bonds are a "fixed-term debt obligation", meaning that they will pay a fixed amount at a specified time in the future.[11] Differences in the bonds' present value are minimal, so according to economic theory any difference in price will be eliminated by arbitrage.

So, what's is an arbitrage and what's its relation to a "fixed income arbitrage"?

Again from Wikipedia:

In economics and finance, arbitrage is the practice of taking advantage of a price differential between two or more markets: striking a combination of matching deals that capitalize upon the imbalance, the profit being the difference between the market prices. When used by academics, an arbitrage is a transaction that involves no negative cash flow at any probabilistic or temporal state and a positive cash flow in at least one state; in simple terms, a risk-free profit. A person who engages in arbitrage is called an arbitrageur—such as a bank or brokerage firm. The term is mainly applied to trading in financial instruments, such as bonds, stocks, derivatives, commodities and currencies.

Fixed-income arbitrage is an investment strategy generally associated with hedge funds, which consists of the discovery and exploitation of inefficiencies in the pricing of bonds, i.e. instruments from either public or private issuers yielding a contractually fixed stream of income.

Most arbitrageurs who employ this strategy trade globally.

In pursuit of their goal of both steady returns and low volatility, the arbitrageurs can focus upon interest rate swaps, US non-US government bond arbitrage, see US Treasury security, forward yield curves, and/or mortgage-backed securities.

Did you get all that? :confused: Neither did I. And I suspect no one outside of the world of finance will understand it either. Hence, the constant arguement by Wall Street that they need to retain their ability to recruite "the smartest men/women around" to remain competitive. Honestly, I understand their need - no...despiration!!! - from the standpoint of being able to attract and/or retain the most knowledgeable people in the world of business accounting and investing. It's going to take several Mr. Wizards just to decode some of the complex mathmatics involved in some of these CDOs and credit default swaps that got us in this mess.

3) Clearly the fed (treasury) knew of the problems an unregulated derivatives market would have on this nation's economy. Why didn't TPTB do more to stop this eventuality 11 yrs ago?

The answer: (Again, from Wikipedia) "(After the 14 leading U.S. banks put up millions to avoid the collapse of LTCM)...the participating banks got a 90% share in the fund and a promise that a supervisory board would be established.

Question: What happened to that supervisory board?

Obviously, the board disolved after the fund closed in early 2000, but what lessons did they learn, if any, and why didn't they share what they'd learned with the rest of the banking world or atleast do a better job of policing themselves so as not to allow such a mistake to every happen again?

The answer is simple: A free-market system canNOT police itself. Without regulations that provide checks and balances, such institutions are doomed to repeat themselves and make the exact same mistakes. Hence, 10-yrs later (1998-2008) we saw the financial world revert back to their old creative-financing tricks. The collapse of ENRON, WorldCom and others taught them nothing except "...that will never happen to us!"

What's the term many posters here love to use?..."EPIC FAIL?"

...investment banks shifty their cash cow from whatever it was that fueled the economy up until 1998...
...fixed income arbitrage

...to the housing market (specifically, subprime mortgages)

Makes you wonder what will be the next cash cow and how bad will that collapse be without regulations to keep investment banks honest? Without controls, something like this is bound to happen again.
 
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The economic collapse of September 2008 was largely rooted in the subprime mortgage market. I wonder what triggered the 1998 collapse w/Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM)? The documentary never says. What it does say, however, is that fourteen of this nation's biggest banks put up $400M each in an effort to stop the bleeding. It worked. So, my questions are:

1) Why didn't the fed tell the banks to do this again - pony up funds to bail out themselves?
Because we're talking trillions, not billions, is my understanding. And who were they going to borrow from? They were all swimming.

2) What was so different about the derivatives structured in the 90's versus those structured in the years leading up to the economic collapse in the fall of 2008?
Volume is my guess. Didn't they mention that derivatives were spawned from 'futures', which were regulated. Derivatives were not regulated, but were not a huge portion of the global economy. The housing boom basically rode on magic carpet of derivatives (among other things like speculation, etc.)

Remember, these were lauded as new instruments and new uses of those instruments...they evolve at a staggering pace. Of course, one might assume conservatives...staunch opponents of progressiveness and change, would want to temper wall streets light-speed progressive actions. But since when did average voters have to be consistent?

3) Clearly the fed (treasury) knew of the problems an unregulated derivatives market would have on this nation's economy. Why didn't TPTB do more to stop this eventuality 11 yrs ago?
We're mortal. Ultimately what you term as a "problem" made a great many people very wealthy, wealth that they did NOT lose even after the collapse. Was that the conscious reason? not really, but it's the root cause. We have to accept that people will run over grandma to make a fortune before they die...and put guard rails up so they don't.



However, what I don't know exactly is how much debt our nation's banks were carrying at that time in light of what I now know from the Frontline documentary. So, what I'd be interested in knowing is how deep was the 2008 banking debt? Remember: 14 banks paid $400 million each to avoid a $1 trillion economic disaster in 1998. Just how far did this debt go in 2008 and how many financial institutions were actually involved?

$400M x 14 banks? That's pocket change to this crisis.
The New York State Comptroller's Office has said that in 2006, Wall Street executives took home bonuses totaling $23.9 billion. "
Just the executive bonuses in one year exceed what you remarked as the 1998 ante.

As to debt, here were some numbers, but it seems like bank debt related to consumers...still gives some insight.
[ame=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Subprime_mortgage_crisis]Subprime mortgage crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia[/ame]

The total amount of mortgage-backed securities issued almost tripled between 1996 and 2007, to $7.3 trillion. The securitized share of subprime mortgages (i.e., those passed to third-party investors via MBS) increased from 54% in 2001, to 75% in 2006.[74] American homeowners, consumers, and corporations owed roughly $25 trillion during 2008. American banks retained about $8 trillion of that total directly as traditional mortgage loans. Bondholders and other traditional lenders provided another $7 trillion. The remaining $10 trillion came from the securitization markets. The securitization markets started to close down in the spring of 2007 and nearly shut-down in the fall of 2008. More than a third of the private credit markets thus became unavailable as a source of funds.[91][92] In February 2009, Ben Bernanke stated that securitization markets remained effectively shut, with the exception of conforming mortgages, which could be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.[93]
 
I'm still a little confused on the whole sub-prime morgage crisis. I've read two books on the subject (Pual Krugmans The return of depression economic and the crisis of 2008 and Meltdown by Thomas Woods) and I still do not understand the role Fannie and Fredie had in this. One seemed to say that they saved us because the rest of the industry basically went down and the other said they were like the only ones to blame. Could someone tell me what role they actually played in the crisis?
 
I don't understand your comment.

Richard Fuld took an investment bank that, through more than a century and a half, had survived numerous recessions, depressions, panics, two world wars, and a civil war and destroyed it over a weekend. Money isn't everything. Some people actually have shame and value their personal integrity more than any amount of money. They wouldn't be happy otherwise. Personally, I wouldn't want to emulate Dick Fuld. I assume you wouldn't either:

Worst CEO ever, a thief.
 
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Of course not, given that so many financial corproations lobby to ensure they dont' get regulated, or just as good, get regulations that favor them and do nothing to constrain the real issues.

But China will do it and outcompete us if we don't have free reign!! So, give wall street free reign.

But don't claim it's because we "can't regulate them". We just choose not to.

What we've chosen to do is distort the free market. We've tried to use monetary policy and financial regulation to end, once and for all, the ability of the marketplace to reward success and penalize failure that should have been brought about by too much risk taking and debt. At some point we'll lose our ability to reflate our way out of the bubbles we keep creating, because people will just say "Enough!" and demand payment in something other than worthless scrip. We now have total credit market debt in this country of more than $53 trillion, the highest it's ever been, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP:

Total+Credit+Market+Debt+vs.+GDP.png
 
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I'm still a little confused on the whole sub-prime morgage crisis. I've read two books on the subject (Pual Krugmans The return of depression economic and the crisis of 2008 and Meltdown by Thomas Woods) and I still do not understand the role Fannie and Fredie had in this. One seemed to say that they saved us because the rest of the industry basically went down and the other said they were like the only ones to blame. Could someone tell me what role they actually played in the crisis?

It's actually pretty simple. Basically, Fannie and Freddie lowered their underwriting standards because of competition from other firms, like Countrywide and Lehman Brothers, that were also packaging and selling pools of mortgages to investors. As the largest purchasers and guarantors of mortgages, Fannie and Freddie gave the green light for mortgage lenders to give money to people who probably shouldn't have received it. When it became apparent that the two firms were having difficulties because they had guaranteed too many bad loans, the federal government put them into conservatorship. If it had not, then mortgage lending would have ground to a halt anywhere homes were declining in value (pretty much everywhere, to varying degrees), because banks generally don't like to loan money against collateral that's losing value unless they can pawn that risk onto someone else, like the U.S. taxpayer. I don't think there's too big a market these days for mortgage-backed securities issued by Lehman Brothers or Countrywide.
 
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Few people do as good a documentary as Frontline, and no story is perhaps more important to educate ourselves than the economic meltdown.

FRONTLINE: Coming Soon - The Warning | PBS

On air and online October 20, 2009 at 9:00pm eastern




Clinton did more to set the US up for an economic Neo Liberal fall (trade deficits and de-regulated financial markets) than anyone in the Bush Administration. (And coincidentally the Latin American economic backlash).

And Scary Larry Summers, the biggest economic shmuck since Diocletian was prime in the Clinton team, now he has conveniently converted to Keynesianism and Obama.
 
Richard Fuld took an investment bank that, through more than a century and a half, had survived numerous recessions, depressions, panics, two world wars, and a civil war and destroyed it over a weekend. Money isn't everything. Some people actually have shame and value their personal integrity more than any amount of money. They wouldn't be happy otherwise. Personally, I wouldn't want to emulate Dick Fuld. I assume you wouldn't either:

What do your wants, and my wants, have to do with Dick becoming extraodinarily wealthy by screwing things up, and in terms of wealth net-winning as a result? If the systems supports this, does the system serve Dick, or you? Looks like Dick.
 
What we've chosen to do is distort the free market......We now have total credit market debt in this country of more than $53 trillion, the highest it's ever been, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP

How can you possible be of the mind that the financial sector is not creating bubbles and this extraordinary debt ratio because of these two reasons:

1. They can
2. They profit from it.

And better still, they bank DURING the bubble rise. That is, if you're getting millions as you ride the bubble, and nice golden parachutes because times are booming...when the inevitable burst comes, it's irrelevant. Even if we aren't smart and choose not to save the entire global economy, they are still in the better position. So why on earth would they ever, do anything differently?

Greenspawn believed you do not regulate fraud, and risk. He was wrong, he admitted it. Regulation impacts #1. You make it so that certain things are not allowed. I can profit from robbing someone, we create a market that prohibits that. That's how it has and will continue to, work.

We claim we don't have experts in Washington to regulate these complicated things, but we do, and did. Born knew, and was shut down. Why? Corporatism primarily, they carreid greater voice. Why? They had more...you know...wealth. Tying up a significant percentage of the US debt and GDP gives them power. Conveinent.
 
How can you possible be of the mind that the financial sector is not creating bubbles and this extraordinary debt ratio because of these two reasons:

1. They can
2. They profit from it.

The enabler in all of this is the Federal Reserve with its cheap money. So I am of the mind that when you lower the cost of money by charging an artificially low interest rate, households and businesses will take advantage of that fact. But I accept that when the government acts as a backstop to these people and bails them out when things go bad, they won't go bankrupt as they should. Instead, capital will remain deployed in unproductive assets and enterprises that should have been resigned to the economic scrap heap.

And better still, they bank DURING the bubble rise. That is, if you're getting millions as you ride the bubble, and nice golden parachutes because times are booming...when the inevitable burst comes, it's irrelevant. Even if we aren't smart and choose not to save the entire global economy, they are still in the better position. So why on earth would they ever, do anything differently?

Personally, I don't think it's smart to preserve bubble assets, inefficient companies, and zombie banks. We should stop being a moron and playing the victim and just let these banks sink or swim on their own. All we're doing is delaying the inevitable day of reckoning when we conduct these bailouts. The "systemic risk" is to a house of cards set to eventually fall anyway.
 
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The enabler in all of this is the Federal Reserve with its cheap money.
Don't these large financial firms have lobbyists, leverage, political appeal, revolving door buddies, etc., and even if the conspiracy theory that it's "all the fed's fault" were assumed true, that the Fed operates the way it does, specifically at the behest and in the interest of, these institutions?


Personally, I don't think it's smart to preserve bubble assets, inefficient companies, and zombie banks.
We let countless numbers of banks and inefficient companies fail, day in, day out. No one apparently thinks it's smart. How do you reconcile that with your beliefs?
 
Don't these large financial firms have lobbyists, leverage, political appeal, revolving door buddies, etc., and even if the conspiracy theory that it's "all the fed's fault" were assumed true, that the Fed operates the way it does, specifically at the behest and in the interest of, these institutions?

I didn't say it was "all the Fed's fault." I said I believe the easy-money policies of the Federal Reserve provided the tender to fuel these bubbles. I'd prefer that we had a currency pegged to something tangible like gold instead of a currency managed through interest rate targets set by a nominally independent central bank, but I guess with Chris Dodd and Barney Frank now here to protect us we're all supposed to sleep better. :roll:

We let countless numbers of banks and inefficient companies fail, day in, day out. No one apparently thinks it's smart. How do you reconcile that with your beliefs?

How do I reconcile my beliefs with the idea that no one believes it's smart to let insolvent banks and inefficient companies fail? :rofl I would hope there are at least a few people in policy-making positions who see the futility of that basic position. All we do when we try to use government to repeal the business cycle is set the stage for yet another bubble, and delay the inevitable day of reckoning.
 
Clinton did more to set the US up for an economic Neo Liberal fall (trade deficits and de-regulated financial markets) than anyone in the Bush Administration. (And coincidentally the Latin American economic backlash).

And Scary Larry Summers, the biggest economic shmuck since Diocletian was prime in the Clinton team, now he has conveniently converted to Keynesianism and Obama.

It's hard to say whether or not former Pres. Clinton knew exactly what was going on or if he just turned a blind eye to the mounting problem. I'm inclined to believe the former vice the latter; after all, he had the smartest woman in the room as part of his administration. But as the documentary clearly illustrates, Greenspan was pulling all the strings and calling all the shots. I'd say he was Clinton's Dick Cheney.

One thing is clear concerning what took place in 1998: When the LTCM fund was shut down in early 2000, I don't think anyone believed such a thing could happen again. Remember, the board that was set up to manage the fund disolved after the fund closed taking with it all the lessons learned from this event. I wouldn't be surprised to learn that most of the people who were involved with that crisis are still in government today. If they are or were in October 2008 and they didn't speak up...lord help them!
 
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