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Economics So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!; I noticed several people repeating what I already presented without actually commenting on the underlying issue. Aside from the common ...

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Old 07-16-08, 12:26 PM   #21 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!

I noticed several people repeating what I already presented without actually commenting on the underlying issue. Aside from the common misconceptions about FDIC liability, the point is the liability limitation is several decades old and has not paced with inflation, forcing people to spread their nest egg inefficiently among several banks, creating an unnecessary pile of paper and financial confusion for virtually everone if they chose to opt for financial safety. As people get older and have accumulated more of a nest egg, this may be especially true and particularly a burden.

As mentioned before, private insurance is also available through many brokerage accounts for amounts greater than $100,000, so a brokerage account might be an option. However, it is not clear to me why such insurance is not also available through banks. Is some regulatory issue restraining this? Or is it simply that banks don't want to foot the bill and prefer simply to use the aura of "FDIC insurance" to suggest safety without actually providing it.

It is unfortunate that the run on Indymac produced many furious customers, even people fainting in line, because they, like many other people, had the mistaken notion that FDIC liability was per account rather than per customer. Many lost their life savings in that bank, beyond the covered $100,000, that is. The point I was making is the FDIC coverage limit is woefully outdated and needs to be upgraded.

If this misconception is widespread, as I suspect, then if there is a sudden realization of the truth of it by the population, then there could be lots of mini-bank runs throughout the nation as people pull excess accounts out and redistribute them.
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Old 07-16-08, 01:24 PM   #22 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!

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...the point is the liability limitation is several decades old and has not paced with inflation, forcing people to spread their nest egg inefficiently among several banks, creating an unnecessary pile of paper and financial confusion for virtually everone if they chose to opt for financial safety. As people get older and have accumulated more of a nest egg, this may be especially true and particularly a burden.
In my view, inconvenience aside, there needs to be a balance between amounts one would like to see insured by the FDIC and amounts that can reasonably be covered given the FDIC's resources. Increased FDIC premiums might allow for greater resources so as to increase the insurance limits, but the impact of such premia e.g., reduced interest rates on deposit vehicles, might drive customers to alternative financial institutions where funds are not insured.

The incentive for diversification, because it reduces risk exposure, is a good thing. The IndyMac experience highlights anew the point that is often ignored that the benefits of diversification outweigh the costs of inconvenience. Although from a personal perspective I very much hope that the terms of IndyMac's resolution will greatly limit, if not fully eliminate, the losses for the uninsured depositors, from an economic perspective it needs to be noted that moral hazard, that would arise from a situation in which a failure to diversify is wholly compensated, might have adverse consequences of its own.

Furthermore, if there is sufficient demand in the future for let's say a premium bank deposit insurance vehicle that would cover amounts beyond FDIC limits, one might witness insurance companies developing and marketing such vehicles on a wider basis. The key questions would concern risk exposure for the insurance companies, whether a sufficient number of people would be willing to purchase such coverage at rates that would enable the insurance companies to earn a profit.

Moreover, in the wake of the implosion of the recent housing bubble, regulators might do well to limit the share of any bank's loan portfolio that can be comprised by any single loan category e.g., real-estate-based (commerical, residential, and mortgage-backed securities), etc. Experience following the S&L crisis of the 1980s and the evolving post-real estate bubble banking challenges might well provide some reasonable understanding as to constraints that would provide better protection in a statistically significant fashion.

A gradual and modest increase in reserve requirements might also help ensure that financial institutions are better capitalized.

Sharply tightened standards that substantially reduce the practice of maintaining significant off-balance sheet vehicles and requirements that items be based at the lower of face value or market (not model) value with a sizable "haircut" for illiquid items, could also create better transparency and bring about much improved risk management.

Last edited by donsutherland1 : 07-16-08 at 01:26 PM.
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Old 07-16-08, 02:26 PM   #23 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!

re: sutherland above: I would agree making banks more secure is a better solution than simply making bank failure insurance better, however doing both seems wiser since if on a per capita basis customers provide larger bank accounts, presumably the bank's stake rises proportionally and would provide the incentive to expand bank service, such as better insurance for accounts.

To extrapolate from your commentary, I take it banks don't offer better insurance because they have so far been able to get away with not offering it. Just as I thought.
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Old 07-16-08, 03:33 PM   #24 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? Stop LYING to yourself!

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And just to think I gave you my FIRST S.S.1 Star award!
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More powerfull in my mind then a passing mood swing is my distain for many of Bush's policies. Yes, I voted for him, but that son of a bitch sold me out. He increased government with Homland Security, trashed the constitution with the Patriot Act, and his bungling of the war far out waighs the tax cuts he gave me.

I wish I could say that he gives good lip service to conservative ideals, but apperantly it's to much to ask for a president who can inteligently articulate his view and comand respect through public speaking.

Mc.Cain is another Bush, and Obama is even wors, so I find that I have no one to vote for this time around.

On topic though, the economy is not in a recession, nore are we in a depression....at least not yet....but imo those are not even imminent.
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Last edited by Jerry : 07-16-08 at 03:35 PM.
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Old 07-16-08, 04:09 PM   #25 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!

I just read this from the AP:

"Shortly after the FDIC took over operations, Barr said most depositors were given immediate access to up to $100,000 in their accounts and 50 percent of any money beyond that threshold. Depositors with joint accounts or retirement accounts could immediately withdraw greater sums.

Depositors were given receivership certificates for any money they couldn't immediately withdraw and may be able to receive some of that money after the bank's assets are sold off."

So apparently this is being considered an important case with unanticipated consequence, and the FDIC is bending the rules to accomodate.
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Old 07-16-08, 04:09 PM   #26 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!

any idiot who has 500,000 in a bank account, at todays interets rates, DESERVES to lose it
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Old 07-16-08, 04:16 PM   #27 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!

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any idiot who has 500,000 in a bank account, at todays interets rates, DESERVES to lose it
Why? Alternatives offer better returns at the price of greater risk. Therefore your statement short-sightedly ignores the total cost of an investment.

Banks are intended to be havens from risk, so people placing their money there are doing so for a reason. Elderly can not rely on long-term average returns on their capital, since they can not forecast when a medical emergency or such might require a short-term need of it.

Last edited by metreon : 07-16-08 at 04:22 PM.
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Old 07-16-08, 05:25 PM   #28 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!

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Why? Alternatives offer better returns at the price of greater risk. Therefore your statement short-sightedly ignores the total cost of an investment.

Banks are intended to be havens from risk, so people placing their money there are doing so for a reason. Elderly can not rely on long-term average returns on their capital, since they can not forecast when a medical emergency or such might require a short-term need of it.
obviously, if someone is so stupid they put more than $100,000 in an account insured for only $100,000, they are too stupid to understand the simplicity of diversified income generating investments
there are plenty of diversified low risk instruments with modest returns that far surpass simple interest

hell a simple 8% return on $500,000 yields $40k / year
plenty to live on in retirement, in comfort with perks like occasional travel
if not, they should not have retired yet
you dont retire when you have a mortgage
you dont retire with credit card debt

and got some news for you, if you are expected to live for atleast 10 years more, you need to have some diversified aggressive investments

personally i dont see any reason to ever fully retire
unless of course one can no longer work, but than i guess that is not quite retirement either
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Old 07-16-08, 08:27 PM   #29 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!

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hell a simple 8% return on $500,000 yields $40k / year
Not many investments yield such a return over the long-run. The overall stock market has done so in nominal terms, but the past decade has not been good for stocks.

Taking the S&P 500, on July 16, 1998, the S&P 500 closed at 1,183.99. Today, ten years later, it closed at 1,245.36. That's just 5.2% higher. In nominal terms, that would translate into an annual return of +0.5%.

Once one factors in inflation, the real return is decidely negative. The 10-year return amounts to -21.8%. That comes to a return of -2.4% per year in real terms.

That is solely the price appreciation. One must include dividends. If one considers the average annual dividend of 1.4% paid during that timeframe, then the S&P 500's total annual return comes to 1.8% and its annual real return remains negative at -1.1% per year.
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Old 07-17-08, 10:28 AM   #30 (permalink)
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Re: So, theres NO RECESSION, no DEPRESSION? OH YES THERE IS!

Is anyone else concerned about the amount of glee some people seem to be getting out the prospect of a recession and depression?
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