oldreliable67

Non-farm payrolls fell by 62,000. The unemployment rate held at 5.5% in June. Prior months revised lower to show 52k more jobs lost in those months.

Average hourly earnings up by 6 cents, or 0.3%.

Payrolls have now fallen in all six months this year for a total job loss of 438,000.

Avg mfg workweek (a leading indicator) fell for the 3rd month in a row, to 40.8 in June versus 40.9 and 41.0 in May and April respectively.

The Index of Aggregate Hours worked, a reasonably good proxy for GDP, also declined for the third month in a row, to 107.0 in June, from 107.1 and 107.5 in May and April respectively.

Previously released consumption data suggested that Q2 GDP might be up as much as 2 - 2.5%. The unemployment data, particularly the workweek and aggregate hours data, suggest those expectations may need to be revised downward a bit. Consumption being the largest component of GDP, Q2 is still most likely a plus, but perhaps not in excess of 2%.

oldreliable67

The Institute for Supply Management (formerly known as the National Association of Purchasing Managers, or NAPM) released its June Report on Non-Mfg Business this morning. While the overall index was down a bit, to 48.2 from 51.7, some of the details were considerably more interesting.

The employment index for June was 43.8 versus 48.7 in May, suggesting the decline in employment in service industries accelerated in June. (In its previous ROB for manufacturing, the employment index for manufacturing businesses declined to 43.7 from 45.5, also suggesting an acceleration in unemployment.)

However, in todays unemployment report from BEA, service providing business reported a net gain of 7k jobs. Gains were reported in education and health care (+29k), leisure and hospitality (+24k) and government (+29k). Declines were noted in retail trade (-8) and professional and business services (-51k).

To be sure, both the ISM reports and the unemployment data are the product of surveys with an unknown amount of overlap and timing differences, so there is considerable room for error. Nonetheless, the contrast between ISM Non-Mfg declines in employment and the essentially unchanged levels in the BEA service sector data are interesting.

Given the continuing in increases in initial claims data (+16k to 404k for week ended June 28), and the reports from several states of increases in claims from various service areas, the prospects seem to argue for further declines in employment, including the services sector.

donsutherland1

Gladiator

Heard on the radio that government jobs are not proportionally reduced. The Goverenment sector, in the US, is not doing as poorly as the private sector.

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