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Predictions for the deficit for 2017 and 2018. What direction will it go?

RAMOSS

RAMOSS

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Now, the deficit for 2017 is pretty much because of legislation that was passed in 2016, so I really can't give Trump either full credit or blame about what happens in 2017 with the deficit.

Unless there is a war, or major disaster , or something that gets retroactively introduce for 2017, it's pretty much from the Obama adminstration (note: I am saying this in early Janurary).

How do people predict the deficit spending will go in 2018 verses 2017 verses 2016??

What do you think is the significance of the direction of the deficit at this point for those years? I want people to give their opinion NOW, so it can be compared with how they react to what actually happens in 2017 and 2018. What are your predictions, and what do you think it will mean?
 
If Trump gets his way, substantially larger.
 
∞




....
 
Carjosse said:
If Trump gets his way, substantially larger.
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I agree since increased immigration enforcement, strengthening the military, "stimulus" tax cuts and a PPACA "replacement" will all cost big bucks. It is also unlikely that business (corporate?) tax cuts can be passed without adding in individual tax cuts which will, at least initially, spike the deficit. It is possible that tariff revenue might help but that will likely cause reciprocal nonsense hurting US exports.
 
So, we know have two liberals that think the deficit will be larger (I will assume for the end of 2018). Any more conservative posters willing to record their predictions.


Also, for those two who responded, thank you , and what do you think the significance will be? I noticed during the Bush years, many conservatives were saying the debt didn't matter that much, yet flip flopped on that when Obama came to office. I want to record people ideas NOW, and then compare it to their ideas when it actually happens.
 
Up. Always.
 
For very illegal worker went packing there is one more job for a citizen taking him off some entitlement or another. That can only help.
 
KevinKohler said:
Up. Always.
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Just to clarify, you are talking about the deficit (the year to year increase), not the debt. I will point out that the deficit has been decreasing for the last 7 years...
 
RAMOSS said:
Just to clarify, you are talking about the deficit (the year to year increase), not the debt. I will point out that the deficit has been decreasing for the last 7 years...
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Not saying your wrong...let's call this an educational opportunity for me. It's my understanding that a deficit is government spending that is above what the government takes in.


So, I guess I have to ask...how are deficits going down, while adding 9 trillion in debt, give or take a trillion?
 
RAMOSS said:
Now, the deficit for 2017 is pretty much because of legislation that was passed in 2016, so I really can't give Trump either full credit or blame about what happens in 2017 with the deficit.

Unless there is a war, or major disaster , or something that gets retroactively introduce for 2017, it's pretty much from the Obama adminstration (note: I am saying this in early Janurary).

How do people predict the deficit spending will go in 2018 verses 2017 verses 2016??

What do you think is the significance of the direction of the deficit at this point for those years? I want people to give their opinion NOW, so it can be compared with how they react to what actually happens in 2017 and 2018. What are your predictions, and what do you think it will mean?
Click to expand...

The deficit has been dropping, but is still frighteningly large.

If Trump has his way, which includes cutting taxes while increasing spending, then the result is predictable, but that won't kick in in 2017.
 
KevinKohler said:
Not saying your wrong...let's call this an educational opportunity for me. It's my understanding that a deficit is government spending that is above what the government takes in.


So, I guess I have to ask...how are deficits going down, while adding 9 trillion in debt, give or take a trillion?
Click to expand...

Because it all the previous deficits combined with interest already incurred. The actual amount the debt is increasing by every year has gone down for the past few years but the debt is still growing.
 
I feel reasonably confident in the direction: The deficit will go up.

The reason: The usual GOP Lower tax revenues, with the usual GOP expenditure increases. <-- yeah, I'm a bit partisan on this one, but I believe it's objective partisanship - if that makes sense?

I'm also going to go on-the-line: I predict higher inflation.
 
:lamo

Well, that didn't take long!

Looks like those of us that predicted "higher" have been ratified!

DP

19B --> 29B (in one fell swoop)

Are we going to Disney World?
 
KevinKohler said:
Not saying your wrong...let's call this an educational opportunity for me. It's my understanding that a deficit is government spending that is above what the government takes in.


So, I guess I have to ask...how are deficits going down, while adding 9 trillion in debt, give or take a trillion?
Click to expand...

It is how FAST the debt is increasing. Lets assume there is no debt over several years.


THe first year, you spend 5000 dollars more than you take in. Your debt and your deficit is 5000 dollars.

THe next year, you spend 3000 dollars more than you take in. The debt is now 8000, and the deficiet is 3000 dollars.. for that year. It has gone DOWN from the previous year, but the debt went up.

The third year, you spend 1000 less than you take in. That is a surplus of 1000 dollars, rather than a deficit. You use that surplus to reduce the debt. THe debt is now down to 7000.
 
Chomsky said:
I feel reasonably confident in the direction: The deficit will go up.

The reason: The usual GOP Lower tax revenues, with the usual GOP expenditure increases. <-- yeah, I'm a bit partisan on this one, but I believe it's objective partisanship - if that makes sense?

I'm also going to go on-the-line: I predict higher inflation.
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I would not gamble against that prediction.
 
RAMOSS said:
I would not gamble against that prediction.
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If you read my post (appropriately numbered) #13, I suspect you'll be even less inclined to bet against me! :2razz:
 
I noticed that so far, in this thread, you have the folks that have been against Trump making their predictions. Any Trump supporter willing to actually support Trump by making a prediction?
 
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