Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Machines

gavinfielder · Mar 18, 2016

Distressingly, it’s exactly routine work that once formed the basis of the American middle class. It’s routine manual work that Henry Ford transformed by paying people middle class wages to perform, and it’s routine cognitive work that once filled US office spaces. Such jobs are now increasingly unavailable, leaving only two kinds of jobs with rosy outlooks: jobs that require so little thought, we pay people little to do them, and jobs that require so much thought, we pay people well to do them.

If we can now imagine our economy as a plane with four engines, where it can still fly on only two of them as long as they both keep roaring, we can avoid concerning ourselves with crashing. But what happens when our two remaining engines also fail? That’s what the advancing fields of robotics and AI represent to those final two engines, because for the first time, we are successfully teaching machines to learn.

...

A world with Amelia and Viv — and the countless other AI counterparts coming online soon — in combination with robots like Boston Dynamics’ next generation Atlas portends, is a world where machines can do all four types of jobs and that means serious societal reconsiderations. If a machine can do a job instead of a human, should any human be forced at the threat of destitution to perform that job? Should income itself remain coupled to employment, such that having a job is the only way to obtain income, when jobs for many are entirely unobtainable? If machines are performing an increasing percentage of our jobs for us, and not getting paid to do them, where does that money go instead? And what does it no longer buy? Is it even possible that many of the jobs we’re creating don’t need to exist at all, and only do because of the incomes they provide? These are questions we need to start asking, and fast.

Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Machines

Really great essay.

I agree with both the analysis and its conclusions.

joG · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

gavinfielder said:
Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Machines

Really great essay.

I agree with both the analysis and its conclusions.

That will mean we have to learn how to reorganize allocation and distribution of income. There are all sorts of possibilities from deep dark to wonderland.

Gaugingcatenate · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

joG said:
That will mean we have to learn how to reorganize allocation and distribution of income. There are all sorts of possibilities from deep dark to wonderland.

An article a bit unnerving in its implications. How will humans, generally, react to mainly leisure time? Work often gives purpose, if machines do most or all of it, how depraved might a potentially meaningless society become?

I guess we will have to ask the machines for an answer if we want an answer anytime soon.

chromium · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Gaugingcatenate said:
An article a bit unnerving in its implications. How will humans, generally, react to mainly leisure time? Work often gives purpose, if machines do most or all of it, how depraved might a potentially meaningless society become?

I guess we will have to ask the machines for an answer if we want an answer anytime soon.

*Some* amount and the right *kind* of work can give purpose, but for 40+ hours a week, every week our whole lives (until too feeble to continue)? Drifting between temp jobs pulling mandatory overtime with no paid time off at all, as many americans experience? It seems to me a shallow life indeed if that's the only way to find purpose

I think this notion is largely built into the ego and social ramifications of not working. If we were to remove this expectation, within a generation people would instead find purpose thru hobbies, traveling, lifelong education, and maybe a few hours here and there at the office

Gaugingcatenate · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

chromium said:
*Some* amount and the right *kind* of work can give purpose, but for 40+ hours a week, every week our whole lives (until too feeble to continue)? Drifting between temp jobs pulling mandatory overtime with no paid time off at all, as many americans experience? It seems to me a shallow life indeed if that's the only way to find purpose

I think this notion is largely built into the ego and social ramifications of not working. If we were to remove this expectation, within a generation people would instead find purpose thru hobbies, traveling, lifelong education, and maybe a few hours here and there at the office

One hopes you are right, but usually the idle hands adage becomes the reality. People sitting at home watching the Jerry Springer, Jackass, Oprah, Khardasian reality TV type fluff, becoming as depraved and empty as most on the folks on those programs. Does not encourage the positive.

Frank Apisa · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

gavinfielder said:
Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Machines

Really great essay.

I agree with both the analysis and its conclusions.

Spot on!

Many of us have been talking about this for years...but for some, it has to be at crisis stage in order to get adequate attention.

The "give everyone a paycheck" notion seems to be the way to go. We'll eventually get there...even thought we will do it kicking and fussing.

Frank Apisa · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Gaugingcatenate said:
One hopes you are right, but usually the idle hands adage becomes the reality. People sitting at home watching the Jerry Springer, Jackass, Oprah, Khardasian reality TV type fluff, becoming as depraved and empty as most on the folks on those programs. Does not encourage the positive.

I think the idea of supposing that is what people who do not have to "earn a living" will do...is way out of line. I think most people will find work to do...for all sorts of reasons that are not connected to "needing it to EARN a living."

Lawns need tending; youth needs teaching; cars need watching; streets and highways need cleaning; golf and tennis need playing...and all sorts of reasonable things have to be done.

Most people will find a way to fill the time.

chromium · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Gaugingcatenate said:
One hopes you are right, but usually the idle hands adage becomes the reality. People sitting at home watching the Jerry Springer, Jackass, Oprah, Khardasian reality TV type fluff, becoming as depraved and empty as most on the folks on those programs. Does not encourage the positive.

they do that already and that is their problem, not mine

chromium · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Frank Apisa said:
Spot on!

Many of us have been talking about this for years...but for some, it has to be at crisis stage in order to get adequate attention.

The "give everyone a paycheck" notion seems to be the way to go. We'll eventually get there...even thought we will do it kicking and fussing.

we won't get there even when a majority are unemployed with no end in sight, because greed. At most i could see laws restricting the # of work hours so that more people have access to a dwindling # of jobs, but again, greed

we'll get there when a $1000 computer can attend to our basic needs - creating food out of nanotech, unlimited electric and fuel (or a replacement for these), cures to illness. At that point, people will give up the rat race because there's little to work for

what i'm wondering is if entertainment worth a damn will be produced, since the monetary incentive won't be there

Gaugingcatenate · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Frank Apisa said:
I think the idea of supposing that is what people who do not have to "earn a living" will do...is way out of line. I think most people will find work to do...for all sorts of reasons that are not connected to "needing it to EARN a living."

Lawns need tending; youth needs teaching; cars need watching; streets and highways need cleaning; golf and tennis need playing...and all sorts of reasonable things have to be done.

Most people will find a way to fill the time.

Most will find a way to fill their time? What other choice have they, that is not an answer. I am hoping for the best as well, but I have taught in classrooms where if there is not meaningful work to be done, you can easily have bedlam. And thats with limited students in a controlled environment. You extend that further out into an undisciplined, too much spare time on their hands, general populace... we will see what happens. Many of us are just naturally lazy and will take the path of least resistance.

You are welcome to deny that all you want. I find it here on DP, so many more willing to take the slacker route, rather call names, attack character, than discuss an issue frankly, put forward differing opinions, as we are doing right now. Not all, but a sizable portion. And most that come here are at least thinking they have done their homework... that would be on the high end, now extrapolate that out to the rest of society, many, out of a population of 325+- million in the US, of which are not mentally engaged at all. Percentages do not even have to be high for that to be a lot of people becoming lost and others of them making, potentially, a lot of trouble.

I cannot predict the future, but I see that as a fair assessment of what might happen.

Gaugingcatenate · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

chromium said:
they do that already and that is their problem, not mine

They get bored, break into your house to have fun, create mayhem, then its becomes your problem. But please, its your problem, you don't need to call law enforcement or anything, then you shift the burden over to someone else.

Frank Apisa · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Gaugingcatenate said:
Most will find a way to fill their time? What other choice have they, that is not an answer. I am hoping for the best as well, but I have taught in classrooms where if there is not meaningful work to be done, you can easily have bedlam. And thats with limited students in a controlled environment. You extend that further out into an undisciplined, too much spare time on their hands, general populace... we will see what happens. Many of us are just naturally lazy and will take the path of least resistance.

You are welcome to deny that all you want. I find it here on DP, so many more willing to take the slacker route, rather call names, attack character, than discuss an issue frankly, put forward differing opinions, as we are doing right now. Not all, but a sizable portion. And most that come here are at least thinking they have done their homework... that would be on the high end, now extrapolate that out to the rest of society, many, out of a population of 325+- million in the US, of which are not mentally engaged at all. Percentages do not even have to be high for that to be a lot of people becoming lost and others of them making, potentially, a lot of trouble.

I cannot predict the future, but I see that as a fair assessment of what might happen.

I do not have to work...and I do. I know lots of people who do not have to work...but who do.

Yeah...there are lazy people...and I'd just as soon not see them impacting on production. So if they waste their lives away...so be it. We can offer them help and education...if they will take it.

But I actually cannot find the hours I need to do all the things I want to do...and I suspect most people will easily be able to fill their time.

Harry Guerrilla · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

gavinfielder said:
Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Machines

Really great essay.

I agree with both the analysis and its conclusions.

What I really love about a fully automated economy, is that we can switch to a creative economy for humans.
That alone is, amazeballs.

What if...? · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Gaugingcatenate said:
One hopes you are right, but usually the idle hands adage becomes the reality. People sitting at home watching the Jerry Springer, Jackass, Oprah, Khardasian reality TV type fluff, becoming as depraved and empty as most on the folks on those programs. Does not encourage the positive.

Read a speculative fiction piece by I believe David Brin on this subject.

World where machines took over labor and people got a basic income.

It revolved around how people would live. Travel was free, so people moves around a lot.

Very few jobs existed, and most supplemental income came from allowing ones body to incubate various biofilters and whatnot.

The protagonists dream was to find a job doing something meaningful.

chromium · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Gaugingcatenate said:
They get bored, break into your house to have fun, create mayhem, then its becomes your problem. But please, its your problem, you don't need to call law enforcement or anything, then you shift the burden over to someone else.

you aren't thinking things thru. The reason money will cease to exist is because there's nothing worth stealing that can't be easily acquired. This is the point at which computers do everything for us INCLUDING security...though i don't think it will happen until 2040 at least

if they get bored of watching tv all day, they just might do some of those things i listed - take up a hobby, see the world. It just might be that people exhausted from working all day plop down to take in mindless sitcoms *because* they work all day. Take away that burden, and who knows

eohrnberger · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Frank Apisa said:
Spot on!

Many of us have been talking about this for years...but for some, it has to be at crisis stage in order to get adequate attention.

The "give everyone a paycheck" notion seems to be the way to go. We'll eventually get there...even thought we will do it kicking and fussing.

Just 'giving everyone a paycheck' is directly counter to the TANSTAAFL reality of trade.
Trade your labors to your employer for compensation. Trade between nations and businesses, etc. TANSTAAFL is the reality of how any market works.

Centrehalf · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

gavinfielder said:
Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Machines

Really great essay.

I agree with both the analysis and its conclusions.

This is an interesting article and recent AI advances are impressive but I've been reading articles like this for most of my life. There is no reason to believe man will be supplanted by machine. I think we'll see what we've been seeing all along, newer machines being excellent tools to be used to make the economy more robust and diverse.

What if...? · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Centrehalf said:
This is an interesting article and recent AI advances are impressive but I've been reading articles like this for most of my life. There is no reason to believe man will be supplanted by machine. I think we'll see what we've been seeing all along, newer machines being excellent tools to be used to make the economy more robust and diverse.

The official reason for the Great Divergence, the point forty years ago when wages for the majority stalled, is that most of the increases in production have been the result of investments in technology.

So we have already been supplanted. Machines have gotten all our raises for forty years now.

What if...? · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

eohrnberger said:
Just 'giving everyone a paycheck' is directly counter to the TANSTAAFL reality of trade.
Trade your labors to your employer for compensation. Trade between nations and businesses, etc. TANSTAAFL is the reality of how any market works.

And when machines are performing the great majority of the work?

When there's one job for every 1000 looking?

Starvation? Revolution? Dystopia? One of those surely, under your model.

Centrehalf · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

What if...? said:
The official reason for the Great Divergence, the point forty years ago when wages for the majority stalled, is that most of the increases in production have been the result of investments in technology.

So we have already been supplanted. Machines have gotten all our raises for forty years now.

I'm not aware of any official reason, I am aware of opinions. Tech is one, monetary policy is another popular reason given.

joG · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Gaugingcatenate said:
An article a bit unnerving in its implications. How will humans, generally, react to mainly leisure time? Work often gives purpose, if machines do most or all of it, how depraved might a potentially meaningless society become?

I guess we will have to ask the machines for an answer if we want an answer anytime soon.

We will have to deal with the challenges as they appear and that will probably be one step at a time. What will be difficult will be the transfer of ownership based wealth from a small group of persons to a large number.
This will not be the same thing as income from doing things, which very well may be similar to the the way we allocate earned income now.

maquiscat · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

chromium said:
what i'm wondering is if entertainment worth a damn will be produced, since the monetary incentive won't be there

Actually, if I wasn't worrying about money, then I must get be putting my hand into filming and other creative endeavors. Entertainment might end up being where many go to.

Centrehalf · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

maquiscat said:
Actually, if I wasn't worrying about money, then I must get be putting my hand into filming and other creative endeavors. Entertainment might end up being where many go to.

I think this is already happening.

What if...? · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

Centrehalf said:
I'm not aware of any official reason, I am aware of opinions. Tech is one, monetary policy is another popular reason given.

Maybe should have said "go to" as that was the only one I could get out of people here. After massive denial.

My research shows a confluence of factors. First of all the world filled up and local capitalists were feeding on the sources ours used too. This left folks used to a certain income level with no easy foriegn sources. So they turned to this country. Where they became parasitic. Rent-seeking. Technology made it possible to offshore. So they did offshore. Turning what had formerly been wages into profits. Is a company worth more in assets than it can pay in dividends quick enough? Take it over and sell it off. Not able to win enough at the Wall Street casinos because computers have tightened the game? Bring in the general populations' retirement incomes. To provide the house with losers. Create a real estate bubble, profit handsomely from it, tank the economy, get made whole by the government, use that windfall to buy income property at a bargain.

Its not your grandfather's capitalism. The game has changed on a fundamental level.

And it hasn't been working for the vast majority of our citizens for decades.

The economic tide continues to rise, but only a few boats are rising along with it.

Gaugingcatenate · Mar 18, 2016

Re: Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Mach

chromium said:
you aren't thinking things thru. The reason money will cease to exist is because there's nothing worth stealing that can't be easily acquired. This is the point at which computers do everything for us INCLUDING security...though i don't think it will happen until 2040 at least

if they get bored of watching tv all day, they just might do some of those things i listed - take up a hobby, see the world. It just might be that people exhausted from working all day plop down to take in mindless sitcoms *because* they work all day. Take away that burden, and who knows

Well, like your setting 2040 is high speculation and arbitrary, so is everything else you have said. We just don't know. And if the amount of disgruntlement displayed here of people who use their leisure to debate is any measurement, people will sit around and be unhappy. For one, they don't have everything free. There are finite resources on the planet and so, everybody with infinite desires... the infinite is not possible... somebody, many somebodies, will be left out.

And when you break into someone's house, its not always just to steal. Its rape, injury and murder, sometimes just for the thrill of it, the momentary thrill to someone bored out of their minds by the nothingness before them everyday. I won't be a part of that class, too many things out there and not enough time to explore them all...but many will be those depraved souls. Hell, we have them already.

If we were all struggling every day just to survive, we would not have so much time for all this sickness, we would be too busy just surviving.

Deep Learning Is Going to Teach Us All the Lesson of Our Lives: Jobs Are for Machines

Maquis Admiral