I can agree with your assumptions regarding the nation-states in question. However, let's not forget the central-theme that has been playing out in the Middle-east since the seventh century. (Yes, it dates from that time!)
Which is the enmity between the Sunnites and the Shiites that has foisted war upon war until the Ottomans (Sunnis) dominated all the territories in question and put an end to the strife. The Sunnis are inferior in numbers, however, to the Shiites.
Excerpted from Wikipedia,
here: {Sunnis are a majority in most Muslim communities in Southeast Asia, China, South Asia, Africa, most of the Arab World, and among Muslims in the United States (of which 85–90% are Sunnis). This can also be confusing because of the fact that the majority of Arab Muslims in the United States are Shia, while the majority of Arab Americans are Christians, the conflation of Arab and Muslim being quite common.
Shias make up the majority of the Muslim population in Iran (around 95%), Azerbaijan (around 90%), Iraq (around 75%) and Bahrain (around 70%). Minority communities are also found in Yemen where over 45% of the population are Shia (mostly of the Zaidi sect), according to the UNHCR. Others put the numbers of Shias at 30%. About 15-20% of Turkey's population belong to the Alevi sect. The Shia constitute around 30–40% of Kuwait, 45–55% of the Muslim population in Lebanon, 25% of Saudi Arabia, 12% of Syria, and 20-25% of Pakistan. Around 15–20% of Afghanistan, less than 6% of the Muslims in Nigeria, and around 5% of population of Tajikistan are Shia.}
The demise of the Ottoman Empire (after WW1, and thank you Lawrence of Arabia) simply renewed the mutual aggression that has played out politically on both sides in all the countries of the Middle-east.
Until these Muslim countries can find a mutual-ground for "be and let be", the strife between them likely will continue ...
