Noah Smith: Will the World Ever Boom Again?

Hawkeye10 said:

One of the symptoms that we are seeing as the current world order does is the constant creation of and then popping of bubbles, which we can expect to continue, but the main trend is onto the ground. Over time the bubble making should slow down as instability does its work.

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The last bubble that popped in the US was a realty-fraud that created the Toxic-Waste mess and the Great Recession.

Perhaps you are hoping for another, but you could be waiting a great long time.

The American economy is grinding out (slowly but surely) from a recession, and there are no bubbles on the horizon (except in this forum), so we need not presently worry about them ...

Lafayette said:

Isn't it a great shame that economic challenges cannot be explained and resolved in a "sound bite"? Like most politicians and a horde of people on this forum.

If you think that complex economic problems can be understood in a few sentences, then you are gravely wrong. (And perhaps in the wrong forum?)

The subject is complex in ways that are often impossible to imagine.

And yet, its single-most important component can be summarized in one simple equation: GDP = Consumption + Investment + Government (spending) ...

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Apparently it's so complex you can't stay on topic for more than two sentences.

gavinfielder said:

Apparently it's so complex you can't stay on topic for more than two sentences.

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Yes, apparently so. And, thus, you cannot seem to follow the logic.

Your realm of belief is based upon TV "sound-bites" ...

imagep said:

The problem is that we are producing more and more, with less and less human labor. At the beginning of the 20th century something like 80% of all work involved the production of food, now that's down to just a few percent of all work. Like farming, manufacturing may increase production, but don't expect it to ever be a big job creator again.

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Yes, we're producing more with less labor, but as we move to a post-industrial society it's clear that what are being rewarded are knowledge, creativity, and intelligence. But I'm not willing to write off this economy for the working stiff just yet. My older son got a great job working for an oil-drilling services firm but was laid off last year as the oil price dropped and the drilling rigs he worked on were idled. But he got right back on his feet and now works as a linesman/installer for AT&T. He's not making the money he was (LWD/MWD engineers were pulling in $100-175K or more a year), but he's got a steady job with a good employer and great benefits once he completes his probationary period. There's still opportunity here for people who are willing to put in the effort and have some basic intelligence.