• This is a political forum that is non-biased/non-partisan and treats every person's position on topics equally. This debate forum is not aligned to any political party. In today's politics, many ideas are split between and even within all the political parties. Often we find ourselves agreeing on one platform but some topics break our mold. We are here to discuss them in a civil political debate. If this is your first visit to our political forums, be sure to check out the RULES. Registering for debate politics is necessary before posting. Register today to participate - it's free!

Is the gold bull market over?

Is the gold bull market over?

  • Yes

    Votes: 27 55.1%
  • No

    Votes: 14 28.6%
  • Don't know

    Votes: 8 16.3%

  • Total voters
    49
I've lately been hearing a lot of radio advertisements urging listeners to invest in silver and gold. Someone who wants people to buy a commodity, so much that he's willing to pay for advertising to encourage, it, isn't someone who wants to buy it himself; that would be someone who wants to sell it. That would be someone who thinks it's going to go down in price, and wants people to buy it from him before that happens.
 
I've lately been hearing a lot of radio advertisements urging listeners to invest in silver and gold. Someone who wants people to buy a commodity, so much that he's willing to pay for advertising to encourage, it, isn't someone who wants to buy it himself; that would be someone who wants to sell it. That would be someone who thinks it's going to go down in price, and wants people to buy it from him before that happens.

Not necessarially.

Those ads have been running for years now.

Could also be someone who is making a comission off of the sale of the commodity, which is probably more likely the case for a radio advertisement.
 
Not necessarially.

Those ads have been running for years now.

Could also be someone who is making a comission off of the sale of the commodity, which is probably more likely the case for a radio advertisement.


Those ads are generally selling gold with a ridiculous markup. Because the market for gold is generally propped up by gullible suckers.
 
Those ads are generally selling gold with a ridiculous markup. Because the market for gold is generally propped up by gullible suckers.

I guess it depends on the outfit, so you may be right that "in general" they have ridiculous markups.

The one I'm most familiar with is Goldline (Glen Beck and Mark Levin shill for them).

Their markups, at least for bullion, at 5% are actually pretty reasonable.

Most of the U.S. Mint’s authorized purchasers (the folks you actually want to be buying gold from) charge in that neighborhood (3% to 7%) for retail sales, though most have manditory minimums that put purchases out of the reach of nickle and dime "save for a rainy day" and "TEOTWAWKI" type investors.

Just an observation.
 
I guess it depends on the outfit, so you may be right that "in general" they have ridiculous markups.

The one I'm most familiar with is Goldline (Glen Beck and Mark Levin shill for them).

Their markups, at least for bullion, at 5% are actually pretty reasonable.

Most of the U.S. Mint’s authorized purchasers (the folks you actually want to be buying gold from) charge in that neighborhood (3% to 7%) for retail sales, though most have manditory minimums that put purchases out of the reach of nickle and dime "save for a rainy day" and "TEOTWAWKI" type investors.

Just an observation.
Goldline doesnt sell bullion unless they are desperate.

They would tell investors they needed to buy coins so the government wouldnt confiscate their gold.

Like I said, selling to suckers is easy in the gold business.

Fools Gold: Inside the Glenn Beck Goldline Scheme | The Big Picture
 
Not necessarially [sic].

Those ads have been running for years now.

Could also be someone who is making a comission [sic] off of the sale of the commodity, which is probably more likely the case for a radio advertisement.

I've been hearing them much more recently, than I have in the past. I just have to think that behind them, there must be some people who really want to sell a lot of these metals in a hurry; which must mean that they expect the price to go down, and they want someone else to be holding these metals when that happens.

If the motive for these ads was commission-based, then they'd be as happy to encourage people to sell as to buy. The middleman would make the same commission regardless of which direction the transaction was taking.
 
Bob Blaylock said:
Someone who wants people to buy a commodity, so much that he's willing to pay for advertising to encourage, it, isn't someone who wants to buy it himself; that would be someone who wants to sell it. That would be someone who thinks it's going to go down in price, and wants people to buy it from him before that happens.

Let me make sure I understand you; I'd hate to put words in your mouth. By advertising a product, the seller believes the price is on its way down and wants to bail out. Yes?

So we can assume that Ford thinks its vehicles are getting cheaper. General Mills thinks its cereal is getting cheaper. Pfizer and its drugs, Exxon and its gas, Whirlpool and its appliances, et cetera ad infinitum all believe the price of their products is declining.

Are you sure it has nothing to do with attempting to gain market share?
 
Let me make sure I understand you; I'd hate to put words in your mouth. By advertising a product, the seller believes the price is on its way down and wants to bail out. Yes?

So we can assume that Ford thinks its vehicles are getting cheaper. General Mills thinks its cereal is getting cheaper. Pfizer and its drugs, Exxon and its gas, Whirlpool and its appliances, et cetera ad infinitum all believe the price of their products is declining.

Are you sure it has nothing to do with attempting to gain market share?

You seem to be trying very hard to misunderstand me as thoroughly as possible. I don't see that there's any point to trying to correct your error, in this case, as I am sure that any correction I might offer, you'll just twist into something that bears as little recognizable connection to what I actually said, as what you already posted has.
 
You seem to be trying very hard to misunderstand me as thoroughly as possible. I don't see that there's any point to trying to correct your error, in this case, as I am sure that any correction I might offer, you'll just twist into something that bears as little recognizable connection to what I actually said, as what you already posted has.

I certainly wasn't trying to put words in your mouth as I said earlier. I simply cannot draw any other conclusion from what you said.
 
If the motive for these ads was commission-based, then they'd be as happy to encourage people to sell as to buy. The middleman would make the same commission regardless of which direction the transaction was taking.

That's assuming that they act as middlemen.

I see nothing on the Goldline website that indicates they buy gold.

Think about the logistics and headaches that would be involved in that.

You're a dealer who has his "experts" sitting in a fixed location. How are you going to offer to buy a commodity at fixed price from anyone, anywhere in the world, who might be interested in selling it when you know that the value of that commodity is based on its purity, and it's condition in the case of coin (which is where the real money is, especially in terms of antiques and collectibles)?

I don't think that's the kind of operation we're talking about here.
 
It looks like PMs have bottomed out for now, down 40 to 100% of their highs during the panic.

Interestingly, there is virtually no junk silver for sale at the major dealers and thy list it as unavailable but even then $2 over spot when it used to be below spot.

How strongly do I feel about this? I would buy junk at $1 over spot today if I could find it.
 
It looks like PMs have bottomed out for now, down 40 to 100% of their highs during the panic.

Interestingly, there is virtually no junk silver for sale at the major dealers and thy list it as unavailable but even then $2 over spot when it used to be below spot.

How strongly do I feel about this? I would buy junk at $1 over spot today if I could find it.

Yes, it seems the speculators are giving up, but those that understand the precious metal fundamentals (which are monetary instability/inflationary concerns) are beginning to go all in.
 
PMs are a great place to put 5% or even 10% of your assets. After my initial bullion purchases, I became fascinated with Modern World Collectables (China Unicorn series, Isle Of Man cat series, Hello Kitty series and the like. The premium is high and most have risen in price even as the silver/gold has fallen. In a few cases, the coin fell with the silver and I'm buying some of those.

Here are my purchases when silver hit $23.something:
1610151825954040_1.jpg3106660443004040_2.jpg3209801542454040_2.jpg4004900105734040_1.jpg

I'll keep low bidding anything that I feel bottoms out. I would also like to buy more jubk silver but nobody has any or they want spot plus $3.50 or more which is absurd. Bullion is very cheap but I'm bored by it and would rather speculate on the collectibles. These went down and I'm trying to buy a few at reduced prices but I might bid too low every time and that's OK.
mUuRJvyh6Br0sgnpaRQErJw.jpg

I won't sell in my lifetime unless there is a big bubble. My heirs can sell these off over time and if they market them (not taking them to a gold buyer who will screw them), they can live off the sales for several years and keep those idle hands busy doing so.

Of course, my Immortality spell (I got on Ebay) may cause me to outlive everyone and then I'll just hide them in the walls and let somebody find them 100 years later when they tear down the house to build another casino - or even better a whorehouse.





Yes, it seems the speculators are giving up, but those that understand the precious metal fundamentals (which are monetary instability/inflationary concerns) are beginning to go all in.
 
'Nouriel Roubini | After the Gold Rush
Venice: The run-up in gold prices in recent years—from $800 per ounce in early 2009 to above $1,900 in the fall of 2011—had all the features of a bubble. And now, like all asset-price surges that are divorced from the fundamentals of supply and demand, the gold bubble is deflating.
At the peak, gold bugs—a combination of paranoid investors and others with a fear-based political agenda—were happily predicting gold prices going to $2,000, $3,000, and even to $5,000 in a matter of years. But prices have moved mostly downward since then. In April, gold was selling for close to $1,300 per ounce—and the price is still hovering below $1400, an almost 30% drop from the 2011 high.
There are many reasons why the bubble has burst, and why gold prices are likely to move much lower, toward $1,000 by 2015.
First, gold prices tend to spike when there are serious economic, financial, and geopolitical risks in the global economy. During the global financial crisis, even the safety of bank deposits and government bonds was in doubt for some investors. If you worry about financial Armageddon, it is indeed metaphorically the time to stock your bunker with guns, ammunition, canned food, and gold bars.
But, even in that dire scenario, gold might be a poor investment. Indeed, at the peak of the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, gold prices fell sharply a few times. In an extreme credit crunch, leveraged purchases of gold cause forced sales, because any price correction triggers margin calls. As a result, gold can be very volatile—upward and downward—at the peak of a crisis.'


Nouriel Roubini | After the Gold Rush | Nouriel Roubini Blog

So Dr. Doom says the gold bull market is over.

Of course, he has never been big on gold...like Warren Buffett.

And of course, he is mostly wrong on this (imo) and is apparently missing the fundamentals of precious metals - monetary instability/inflationary concerns.

Gold is not an investment when markets are collapsing...unless monetary confidence is in short supply.

The fundamentals of precious metals are much better then they were (IMO) when gold was almost $2G's per ounce...and are getting better every day.

And when the western world/Japan can no longer prop themselves up with masking CPI's/artificially low interest rates/government debt/central bank money 'printing'...those fundamentals will be (imo) made clear for all to see.


Patience is essential when you own gold/silver...it's a real roller coaster.

'Buy the ticket, take the ride'.
Hunter S. Thompson
 
This thread reminds me of the actor who tells people he likes the way gold feels in his hands. I think he might spend too much time with his hands in his pockets. :?
 
I don't see gold taking a big dump anytime soon but I believe it has hit its ceiling for awhile.

Historically, precious metals have rather large price swings. They enter a boom cycle, then go down and stay down for a long time before rebounding.
 
DA60 said:
The fundamentals of precious metals are much better then they were (IMO) when gold was almost $2G's per ounce...and are getting better every day.

And when the western world/Japan can no longer prop themselves up with masking CPI's/artificially low interest rates/government debt/central bank money 'printing'...those fundamentals will be (imo) made clear for all to see.

Well said, and agreed.

There are many people who seem to be anti-precious metal advertisers. "Only morons buy gold!" "What good is gold? You can't eat it!" You get the idea. And yet there are many very savvy investors who are joyfully buying up precious metals left and right as the typical armchair investor bails out in terror. (George Soros, for instance, has $240 million in gold investments alone.)

Throw in the actions of many foreign nations (i.e. China, India, etc.) and you have a nice little precious metals party going on with nowhere but up to go.

If you really think about it, those who poo-poo precious metals are the same people who defend government monetary policies which have the proven track record of destroying personal wealth. So it really makes sense that they would be hostile to commodities which retain wealth.
 
Name one monetarily sovereign country in the history of the world who couldn't control their bond interest rates. Also explain to me how inflation rates are masked. And please don't use shadow stats.
 
Well said, and agreed.

There are many people who seem to be anti-precious metal advertisers. "Only morons buy gold!" "What good is gold? You can't eat it!" You get the idea. And yet there are many very savvy investors who are joyfully buying up precious metals left and right as the typical armchair investor bails out in terror. (George Soros, for instance, has $240 million in gold investments alone.)

Throw in the actions of many foreign nations (i.e. China, India, etc.) and you have a nice little precious metals party going on with nowhere but up to go.

If you really think about it, those who poo-poo precious metals are the same people who defend government monetary policies which have the proven track record of destroying personal wealth. So it really makes sense that they would be hostile to commodities which retain wealth.

I agree.


Actually, what I think will happen is gold will continue to slowly fall as the speculators continue to exit the market as they continue to mistakenly believe that things are actually improving.
Then I think gold will actually take a fairly short but very sharp drop (along with almost everything else) when the government/central bank debt bubble finally bursts.
And then I think it will shoot up fast as people start to realize that the government's of the West/Japan have shot all their debt bullets AND that they actually did NOT have an exit strategy.
And the more this reality sinks in, the faster gold/silver (and other commodities and possibly bitcoins) will go up as people start looking for somewhere - anywhere - to put their money.

I have no idea when this will be (as I have no idea how much more debt the government's can pile on) and I have no idea how high gold/silver will go.

But I think it will be far higher then their previous highs.


If you own gold and/or silver; hang on...imo, the roller coaster is on.
 
Last edited:
I expect prices to go back up as soon as stock values correct to reflect the state of the economy. Of course, most economists foolishly use the stock prices to judge the state of the economy, which is why we keep building the Tower of Babel over and over again.

Spoken like someone who has taken a bath already from gold prices plummeting. Corporate profits are driving the Stock market. What else determines the state of this consumer economy?
 
From Marc Faber:

'Gold is down 30% from its 2011 peak of $1,921, but has far outperformed financial assets since 1999. A correction was overdue. I have about a 25% allocation to gold and buy some every month. I want to have some assets that aren't in the banking system. When the asset bubble bursts, financial assets will be particularly vulnerable.

Gold is easier to carry than a Lamborghini.

Most of my gold is in a safe-deposit box in Switzerland, but I am shifting it to Asia.'


Marc Faber: "People With Financial Assets Are All Doomed" | Zero Hedge


Personally, there are few (if any) people whose financial opinions I respect more then Marc Faber's.
 
I had a house I bought in 2002 that tripled in value by 2005 and fell to half value by 2009. So, seeing the potential, I bought a lot of houses in 2009/2010/2011 and 2012 and they have appreciated about 89%. When the gold crash comes, I will buy as much as I can within my assets allocations. Why? Because we'v seen the potential. Think about these people who bought at $350 not that long ago. Either they sold at $1900 or they didn't. in which case its worth $1300 now.

Buy when they cry. I'm hoping to get some $500 gold and $10 silver. Is it likely?

Go to the dalers and see if you can get any junk silver or buy gold for spot. You can't. Market machinations are driving down the prices, the real thing is carrying a substantial premium.

Today is not the time t buy. Lower prices ahead before it cimbs back up. Even after QR ens, if ever, there are 10s of trillions of fiat dollars floating around. So far, so good and maybe we can print indefinitely. And maybe not.
 
From Marc Faber:

'Gold is down 30% from its 2011 peak of $1,921, but has far outperformed financial assets since 1999. A correction was overdue. I have about a 25% allocation to gold and buy some every month. I want to have some assets that aren't in the banking system. When the asset bubble bursts, financial assets will be particularly vulnerable.

Gold is easier to carry than a Lamborghini.

Most of my gold is in a safe-deposit box in Switzerland, but I am shifting it to Asia.'


Marc Faber: "People With Financial Assets Are All Doomed" | Zero Hedge


Personally, there are few (if any) people whose financial opinions I respect more then Marc Faber's.

You don't think that the 1999 date was cherry picked? I mean why would anyone use a 13 year time span unless they were cherry picking? 5 years, 10 years, 20 years, 25 years, 30 years, 40 years, 50 years would all be logical, so would using the date that a specific POTUS took office, or the date that a significant change happened in our economy. But one someone picks the peak of a bubble year (the .com bubble), which doesn't happen to coincide with any other logical date, I have to assume that they were cherry picking to prove a point. To me, that indicates a significant likelyhood of intellectual dishonesty.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top Bottom