Thread: Economist Richard Duncan: Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral'

'Richard Duncan, formerly of the World Bank and chief economist at Blackhorse Asset Mgmt., says America's $16 trillion federal debt has escalated into a "death spiral, "as he told CNBC.

And it could result in a depression so severe that he doesn't "think our civilization could survive it."

And Duncan is not alone in warning that the U.S. economy may go into a "death spiral."

Since the recession, noted economists including Laurence Kotlikoff, a former member of President Reagan's Council of Economic Advisers, have come to similar conclusions.

Kotlikoff estimates the true fiscal gap is $211 trillion when unfunded entitlements like Social Security and Medicare are included.

However, while the debt crisis numbers are well known to most Americans, the economy hasn't suffered a major correction for almost 4 years.

So the questions remain: Is the threat of collapse for real? And if so, when?

A team of scientists, economists, and geopolitical analysts believes they have proof that the threat is indeed real - and the danger imminent.

One member of this team, Chris Martenson, a pathologist and former VP of a Fortune 300 company, explains their findings:

"We found an identical pattern in our debt, total credit market, and money supply that guarantees they're going to fail. This pattern is nearly the same as in any pyramid scheme, one that escalates exponentially fast before it collapses. Governments around the globe are chiefly responsible.'


Economist Richard Duncan: Civilization May Not Survive 'Death Spiral' - Money Morning

Total poppycock. We could pay off the debt tommorow if it was so important. There's $40 trillion in wealth sitting in the top 5%. A wealth tax with a million dollar deductible would be pretty easy.
But....there's no real reason to pay off the debt right away. Growth and inflation will take care of it in time. The wealthy are going to have to pay alittle more for entitlements though, the low salaries of the middle class will not support them without help from the top.

Originally Posted by iguanaman

Total poppycock. We could pay off the debt tommorow if it was so important. There's $40 trillion in wealth sitting in the top 5%. A wealth tax with a million dollar deductible would be pretty easy.
But....there's no real reason to pay off the debt right away. Growth and inflation will take care of it in time. The wealthy are going to have to pay alittle more for entitlements though, the low salaries of the middle class will not support them without help from the top.

theres not 40 trillion wealth on the top 5%,theres barely that much if you count every citizen rich or poor.

you might be thinking of money across the world,and last time i checked america doesnt tax foriegn countries.

Originally Posted by iguanaman

Total poppycock. We could pay off the debt tommorow if it was so important. There's $40 trillion in wealth sitting in the top 5%. A wealth tax with a million dollar deductible would be pretty easy.
But....there's no real reason to pay off the debt right away. Growth and inflation will take care of it in time. The wealthy are going to have to pay alittle more for entitlements though, the low salaries of the middle class will not support them without help from the top.

And your link to unbiased, factual proof that it is 'total poppycock' is what?

It's mighty odd that the same Richard Duncan of Blackhorse also said "The US Must Keep Spending, Otherwise We'll Be Japan!

Read more: Blackhorse's Richard Duncan: The US Must Keep Spending, Otherwise We'll Be Japan! - Business Insider

He is also in the business of selling asian securities, so he has a vested interest in scaring away investors from US investments. I don't exactly find him credible.

Originally Posted by DA60

And your link to unbiased, factual proof that it is 'total poppycock' is what?

Here's your link and my info comes from David Stockman, budget director for Reagan. Is that too biased for you?

So you ask – How can we pay down the debt? How can we eliminate the $13 trillion and start over?

Well the answer comes from the Ronald Reagan former Director of the Budget – David Stockman. He says tax the personal net wealth of the richest 5% of Americans. What is the personal net wealth of the top 5%?

Stockman estimates that the richest 5% or approximately 1.5 million Americans are worth $40 trillion in net wealth. Net wealth is the amount a person is worth after all debts are subtracted from all the assets, cash, stock, real estate, etc. The top 5% are richer than the bottom 95% of all Americans, 308.5 million.

In 1985 this top 5% had a net wealth of just $8 trillion. Most of the gain in wealth is directly from low tax rates.

Keep in mind this is “personal” wealth not corporate wealth and has NO affect on corporations or business.

How the US Nation Debt could be paid-off NOW

Originally Posted by iguanaman

Growth and inflation will take care of it in time.

Wrong. The debt is increasing faster than inflation.

Originally Posted by iguanaman

Here's your link and my info comes from David Stockman, budget director for Reagan. Is that too biased for you?



How the US Nation Debt could be paid-off NOW

I give you credit for actually posting a link.

But I asked for 'unbiased, factual proof'.

This is based on Stockton's opinion.

And besides, his solution is ridiculous.

A one time 15% of total net worth tax to the richest Americans?

Is this guy serious?

What do you think the top richest Americans are going to do when this tax is voted on for the following year by Congress? You think they just might skeedattle to a tax haven and sit on the beach (or do whatever he has to to avoid the tax) for one year until the one time tax passes?

Or do you think they will just sit around and see the government take 15% of everything they have ever made?

Come on now.

You honestly think it is not worthwhile to a billionaire to go and sit on a beach in the Caymens for a year and save at LEAST $150,000,000 (15% tax) rather then stay at home and lose that money?

Stockton's idea is moronic.


And besides, the report I posted did not say it was impossible to pay off the debt.

It simply said that if it keeps going as it is what could happen.

And you said that was 'poppycock'.

So please tell me how it is poppycock that if the debt is left to continue to grow as it is how the scenario the top linked article lays out could not happen?

Originally Posted by DA60

I give you credit for actually posting a link.

But I asked for 'unbiased, factual proof'.

This is based on Stockton's opinion.

And besides, his solution is ridiculous.

A one time 15% of total net worth tax to the richest Americans?

Is this guy serious?

What do you think the top richest Americans are going to do when this tax is voted on for the following year by Congress? You think they just might skeedattle to a tax haven and sit on the beach (or do whatever he has to to avoid the tax) for one year until the one time tax passes?

Or do you think they will just sit around and see the government take 15% of everything they have ever made?

Come on now.

You honestly think it is not worthwhile to a billionaire to go and sit on a beach in the Caymens for a year and save at LEAST $150,000,000 (15% tax) rather then stay at home and lose that money?

Stockton's idea is moronic.


And besides, the report I posted did not say it was impossible to pay off the debt.

It simply said that if it keeps going as it is what could happen.

And you said that was 'poppycock'.

So please tell me how it is poppycock that if the debt is left to continue to grow as it is how the scenario the top linked article lays out could not happen?

I didn't say the wealth tax was a good ides, I simply wanted to show that $15 Trillion is not some out of this world number.
But that $40 Trillion really is because it is more than all the money that existed in the world prior to 1980. From 8 to 40 trillion in only 30 years, it make you think doesn't it? At the rate that it's growing they will have $200 Trillion in another 30 years, I think that might cause some probelms, don't you?
What is moronic are "the sky is falling" predictions based on falsehoods. America is not in debt beyond repair and sane tax policiy that gets the revenue up to at least 18% of GDP, balanced income growth growth along with inflation will make this all seem silly in 10 years. And yes the rich are going to have to pay a little more, poor babies.

Originally Posted by iguanaman

I didn't say the wealth tax was a good ides, I simply wated to show that $15 Trillion is not some out of this world number.
But that $40 Trillion really is because it is more than all the money that existed in the world prior to 1980. From 8 to 40 trillion in only 30 years, it make you think doesn't it?
What is moronic are "the sky is falling" predictions based on falsehoods. America is not in debt beyond repair and sane tax policiy that gets the revenue up to at least 18% of GDP, balanced income growth growth along with inflation will make this all seem silly in 10 years. And yes the rich are going to have to pay a little more, poor babies.

For the last time - no one is saying the debt cannot be paid off.

From the top-linked article:

'And it could result in a depression...'.

'Could'...not 'would'


Now, I will ask you again:

Please tell me how it is 'poppycock' that if the debt is left to continue to grow as it is how the scenario the top linked article lays out could not happen?