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John Williams portends hyperinflation in 2014

phattonez

phattonez

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[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]All the budget projections are based on presumptions of 2 to 3 percent growth in the economy. We’re not going to have that. We don’t have that now. And with the weaker economy, you’ll end up with a much bigger budget deficit. [/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]If you put in realistic projections of economic growth, that would more than offset this purported declines in the deficit. The deficit circumstance – they’re not doing anything serious here. Nothing is going on that will address the government’s long term solvency issues without a major change in political Washington. That may happen with the election, but it’s certainly not in place at the moment. [/FONT]
[FONT=Times New Roman, Times, serif]I don’t mean to sound like I’m getting upset here, but I really am upset with these guys. Where we are is a place we never should have gotten to, and the people in Washington know that and they’ve know where we've been going a long time; they’ve been playing politics with it.
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[/FONT]www.lewrockwell.com/rep3/john-williams-real-unemployment-rate.html
 
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Austrians have been predicting hyperinflation from time indefinate, yet it has'nt happend, we were supposed to have hyper inflation NOW.

If money goes into the system but is'nt circulated inflation is'nt gonna happen, a billionaire with another million is'nt gonna effect inflation much, if he's not buying more consumer goods with it.

But this is just evidence that capitalism has outdone its usefullness, when you need 3% compound growth each year or you have a collapse of the economy you have a major systemic problem, especially since now the economy simply does'nt have that much room to grow (given the mass move into financial games rather than the real economy).
 
RGacky3 said:
Austrians have been predicting hyperinflation from time indefinate, yet it has'nt happend, we were supposed to have hyper inflation NOW.

If money goes into the system but is'nt circulated inflation is'nt gonna happen, a billionaire with another million is'nt gonna effect inflation much, if he's not buying more consumer goods with it.
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who said it would happen now?

Just a few short years ago the fed was in a panic about our monetary system, only fools would think we have actually fixed a thing.


But this is just evidence that capitalism has outdone its usefullness, when you need 3% compound growth each year or you have a collapse of the economy you have a major systemic problem, especially since now the economy simply does'nt have that much room to grow (given the mass move into financial games rather than the real economy).
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This has nothing to do with capitalism. Our massive debt has more to do with socialism. We police the world for social/humanitarian reasons, and we implement social safety nets for the same reason. Our huge debt is why we need to grow the economy and the huge debt has nothing to do with capitalism, it has to do with social re-engineering
 
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who said it would happen now?

Just a few short years ago the fed was in a panic about our monetary system, only fools would think we have actually fixed a thing.
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Many Austrian economists, Peter Schiff for one, a every year they say next year will show massiave myper inflation.

The Fed was in a panic about the credit market freezing, they wern't scared of inflation. Of coarse we hav'nt fixed anything.

This has nothing to do with capitalism. Our massive debt has more to do with socialism. We police the world for social/humanitarian reasons, and we implement social safety nets for the same reason. Our huge debt is why we need to grow the economy and the huge debt has nothing to do with capitalism, it has to do with social re-engineering
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Police the world??? Common, the US has never intervined other than for buisiness interests, (btw humanitarian aid is not socialism), also the saftey nets were not put in place for humanitarian reasons, it was because in the 1930s FDR was terrified of a revolution.

The deficit came because 1. The war, 2. the bush tax cuts and 3 the recession, the recession was caused just as a basic outcome of capitalism, the progressive reforms were stripped in the 80s, and then Capitalism started functioning in the way it naturall functions, which means explosive growth at the top then collapse.

A reasonable economy could have a stable economy with good living standards without growth, an economy NOT based on profit and capital accumulation, but instead a democratic economy.
 
RGacky3 said:
Many Austrian economists, Peter Schiff for one, a every year they say next year will show massiave myper inflation.
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Schiff was one of the few guys to predict the housing collapse, but he didn't predict hyperinflation now. He merely says that will happen to us at some point.

Police the world??? Common, the US has never intervined other than for buisiness interests, (btw humanitarian aid is not socialism), also the saftey nets were not put in place for humanitarian reasons, it was because in the 1930s FDR was terrified of a revolution.
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it is closer to socialism then it is to capitalism
 
Schiff was one of the few guys to predict the housing collapse, but he didn't predict hyperinflation now. He merely says that will happen to us at some point.
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he predicted hyperinflation "within 6 moths" or "next year" all the time.

it is closer to socialism then it is to capitalism
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Ok lets clear this up.

Capitalism: Capitalist mode of production (capitalist controls capital and production, workers recieve a wage) for profit, private capitalist property, markets for capital, land, labor and commodities.

Socialism: Broadly speaking, a democratic economy, with workers being in control of production, and a not for profit economy.

Socialism does not mean "more government," it does not mean "welfare" it does not mean "regulation," thats a part of capitalism, it never has meant that and it does'nt mean it now, socialism has ALWAYS meant a democraticly run economy.

So no the US has Capitalism. The ONLY thing you can claim are socialistic is the cooperative movement, or perhaps the medicare system (not for profit, and under public oversight, although not really because its not really democratically accountable).
 
RGacky3 said:
Max Keiser On Peter Schiff's Erroneous Predictions About Inflation & Poor Investment Performance - YouTube
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That video has nothing to do with hyper inflation, he is cherry picking clients that joined Schiff in the peak of our market collapse to show they lost money investing in Schiff.

Strike one

Inflation Predictions - NYTimes.com
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No talk of a definitive time frame. He says if America doesn’t change course, it will happen. Strike two

Hyperinflation Debunked: Peter Schiff, James Turk, Marc Faber, John Williams & Austrian economics US dollar hyperinflation predictions are wrong
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This linked to an article talking about James Turk writing an opinion article in Schiffs newletter. It mentions how hyper inflation is imminent without a course correction., no concrete dates given, and it has zero to do with Schiff operring his opinion.

Strike three

If you have an actual quote form Schiff giving an actual date estimate of hyper inflation, then present it. Otherwise admit your mistake like a man.
 
RGacky3 said:
But this is just evidence that capitalism has outdone its usefullness, when you need 3% compound growth each year or you have a collapse of the economy you have a major systemic problem, especially since now the economy simply does'nt have that much room to grow (given the mass move into financial games rather than the real economy).
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Say what? 3% expected growth is the problem? Yikes, that's pretty telling about the system that you instead want.
 
ARealConservative said:
This has nothing to do with capitalism. Our massive debt has more to do with socialism. We police the world for social/humanitarian reasons, and we implement social safety nets for the same reason. Our huge debt is why we need to grow the economy and the huge debt has nothing to do with capitalism, it has to do with social re-engineering
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Right-wingers' definition of socialism usually amounts to little more than idealism and defining it as they see fit, even to include Republican conservatvies, or worse minarchists. I imagine your definition of socialism does this as well.

Invading countries for "humanitarian reasons"? What do you mean by that? Imperialism?
 
Predicting hyperinflation at some point in the future is like saying eventually a meteor will strike Earth. Of course one day it will happen and you will have the "broken clock fallacy" pretty well covered (a broken clock being right twice a day).

As for predicting something in 2014 on an economics scale, it is quite idiotic. Williams has no way of knowing what kind of direction or policy choices things will go. No reputable economist makes a prediction like this because they know circumstances can change tomorrow.
 
Tim Cornelis said:
Right-wingers' definition of socialism usually amounts to little more than idealism and defining it as they see fit, even to include Republican conservatvies, or worse minarchists. I imagine your definition of socialism does this as well.

Invading countries for "humanitarian reasons"? What do you mean by that? Imperialism?
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I didn’t say invading countries, I said policing the world. If you are going to interject yourself into the conversation, then try to take the time to actually understand what the other guys said. thanks
 
JP Hochbaum said:
Predicting hyperinflation at some point in the future is like saying eventually a meteor will strike Earth. Of course one day it will happen and you will have the "broken clock fallacy" pretty well covered (a broken clock being right twice a day).

As for predicting something in 2014 on an economics scale, it is quite idiotic. Williams has no way of knowing what kind of direction or policy choices things will go. No reputable economist makes a prediction like this because they know circumstances can change tomorrow.
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It would be wonderful if we could apply this same critical thinking to what the two majors parties come out with.

Like when they say their proposed budget will shrink the debt over 10 years. They can’t possibly know that. They know that the next year of spending will grow the debt, and know that the only way it shrinks 10 years out is if future politicians do what they refuse to do today.
 
This has nothing to do with capitalism. Our massive debt has more to do with socialism. We police the world for social/humanitarian reasons, and we implement social safety nets for the same reason. Our huge debt is why we need to grow the economy and the huge debt has nothing to do with capitalism, it has to do with social re-engineering
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Honestly you're extremely wrong about the social safety nets. They are done in part for humanitarian reasons but there are real economic reasons as well. The fact our social safety nets are as weak as they are is a big reason there's so much pressure on the government to step in to alleviate high unemployment and fix the economy.

That's the reason we need to grow the economy...because being unemployed in America means living on a shoestring budget with little if any healthcare. Long term unemployment in America wrecks individuals lives and causes them to vote out politicians that don't "fix" the economy fast enough.
 
iliveonramen said:
Honestly you're extremely wrong about the social safety nets. They are done in part for humanitarian reasons but there are real economic reasons as well. The fact our social safety nets are as weak as they are is a big reason there's so much pressure on the government to step in to alleviate high unemployment and fix the economy.
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Even if they are for economic reasons, they have nothing to do with capitalism. Capitalism requires a voluntary exchange, these social programs are not voluntary. One aspect of socialism is that the well being of a group takes precedence over the the individual, just as these social programs are designed to do.
 
iliveonramen said:
Honestly you're extremely wrong about the social safety nets. They are done in part for humanitarian reasons but there are real economic reasons as well. The fact our social safety nets are as weak as they are is a big reason there's so much pressure on the government to step in to alleviate high unemployment and fix the economy.

That's the reason we need to grow the economy...because being unemployed in America means living on a shoestring budget with little if any healthcare. Long term unemployment in America wrecks individuals lives and causes them to vote out politicians that don't "fix" the economy fast enough.
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The effects of long term unemployment:

"Mortality rates in the year after displacement are 50%–100% higher than would otherwise have been expected. The effect on mortality hazards declines sharply over time, but even twenty years after displacement, we estimate a 10%–15% increase in annual death hazards. If such increases were sustained indefinitely, they would imply a loss in life expectancy of 1.0–1.5 years for a worker displaced at age forty."

How Long-Term Unemployment Decreases Life Expectancy | ThinkProgress

" Mental health: Mental health problems like: Law self-confidence, feeling unworthy, depression and hopelessness. With the lost income and the frustration involved in it, the recently unemployed may develop negative attitudes toward common things in life and may feel that all sense of purpose is lost. Frequent emotions could be – low self-esteem, inadequateness and feeling dejected and hopeless.
Health diseases: The unemployment overall tension can increase dramatically general health issues of individuals.
Tension at home: Quarrels and arguments at home front which may lead to tension and increased numbers of divorces etc.
Political issues: Loss of trust in administration and the government which may lead to political instability
Tension over taxes rise: Unemployment also brings up discontent and frustration amongst the tax paying citizens. In order to meet the demands of the unemployment fund the government many a times may have to increase the taxes thus giving way to restlessness amongst the tax paying citizens.
Insecurity amongst employees: The prevailing unemployment and the plight of the unemployed people and their families may create fear and insecurity even in the currently employed people.
Crime and violence: Increase in the rate of crime.
Suicide cases: Increase in the rate of suicide attempts and actual suicides as well.
Social outing: Unemployment may bring a decrease in social outings and interactions with other people, including friends.
Stigma: Unemployment brings with more than just ‘no work’. It also brings with it the disgrace that the person has to bear. Nobody likes to be termed as unemployed.
Standard of leaving: In times of unemployment the competition for jobs and the negotiation power of the individual decreases and thus also the living standard of people with the salaries packages and income reduced.
Employment gaps: To further complicate the situation the longer the individual is out of job the more difficult it becomes to find one. Employers find employment gasps as a negative aspect. No one wants to hire a person who has been out of work for some time even when there’s no fault of the individual per say.
Lose of skills’ usage: The unemployed is not able to put his/her skills to use. And in a situation where it goes on for too long the person may have to lose some of his/her skills."

http://www.job-interview-site.com/the-effects-of-unemployment-on-society-and-the-economy.html

Eventually people need to realize that having a job should be a fundamental human right.
 
ARealConservative said:
Even if they are for economic reasons, they have nothing to do with capitalism. Capitalism requires a voluntary exchange, these social programs are not voluntary. One aspect of socialism is that the well being of a group takes precedence over the the individual, just as these social programs are designed to do.
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Capitalism is not our form of government. The goal of government is to serve the needs/will of the people. That's pretty evident in the fact the US pushed public education from the outset and was among or the first country (can't remember which) to insitute free education. Capitalism is a defining feature of America but if soemthing is not Free market or capitalist in nature means nothing.
 
iliveonramen said:
Capitalism is not our form of government. The goal of government is to serve the needs/will of the people. That's pretty evident in the fact the US pushed public education from the outset and was among or the first country (can't remember which) to insitute free education. Capitalism is a defining feature of America but if soemthing is not Free market or capitalist in nature means nothing.
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you are replying to the wrong person. the op incorrectly blames capitalism for our debt, sou your response would be better suited towards him/her
 
ARealConservative said:
I didn’t say invading countries, I said policing the world. If you are going to interject yourself into the conversation, then try to take the time to actually understand what the other guys said. thanks
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There is no need to be hostile. I have my views misrepresented all the time, you could just explain yourself as instead of the animosity.

How does the US police the world?
 
JP Hochbaum said:
Many countries do it, and in fact Argentina and China did quite well during the global recession because of it.
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Because Argentine and China recognise work as a human right they did well during the global recession? I don't see how that works.

Both Argentine and China have an unemployment rate between 4-6 percent.
 
Tim Cornelis said:
There is no need to be hostile. I have my views misrepresented all the time, you could just explain yourself as instead of the animosity.
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Hostile? I politely made a request to not put words into my mouth.

How does the US police the world?
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In numerous ways. We threaten to withhold funding. We threaten sanctions. We station military on over 200 countries to enable quick strikes and project power.
 
RGacky3 said:
Austrians have been predicting hyperinflation from time indefinate, yet it has'nt happend, we were supposed to have hyper inflation NOW.
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Every year they come up with that prediction, so when it does happen the anarcho's can go, "AHA! Told you so!"
 
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