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2015

Ganesh

Ganesh

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A federal election is coming in less than a year, and the troops are already being mobilized. We have a bible thumping capitalist with a reputation for slinging mud, a small "s" socialist firebrand, known for his oration (and sometimes hot temper), and of course the Boy Wonder, now head of the ambivalent party, and hoping to get free of his father's shadow.

How will it turn out? What sort of memorable slam-dunks, or gaffs, do you anticipate? Who will win? Majority or minority parliament?
 
Ganesh said:
A federal election is coming in less than a year, and the troops are already being mobilized. We have a bible thumping capitalist with a reputation for slinging mud, a small "s" socialist firebrand, known for his oration (and sometimes hot temper), and of course the Boy Wonder, now head of the ambivalent party, and hoping to get free of his father's shadow.

How will it turn out? What sort of memorable slam-dunks, or gaffs, do you anticipate? Who will win? Majority or minority parliament?
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Boy Wonder, with a minority that will be as effective as a majority because the mud-slinging bible-thumper and the small-'s' socialist will never crawl into bed together.
 
Grand Mal said:
Boy Wonder, with a minority that will be as effective as a majority because the mud-slinging bible-thumper and the small-'s' socialist will never crawl into bed together.
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Will he utter any memorable gaffs that will follow him through his career, illustrating his youth and relative inexperience, or has spin doctoring made such things unlikely these days?
 
Trudeau will win a majority.
Good looks, charisma and the name Trudeau are more than enough to win.

Unless of course he really royally screws up.
 
Quag said:
Trudeau will win a majority.
Good looks, charisma and the name Trudeau are more than enough to win.

Unless of course he really royally screws up.
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That would be the equivalent of the Americans electing Barrack Obama. Are Canadians really that foolish?
 
Grant said:
That would be the equivalent of the Americans electing Barrack Obama. Are Canadians really that foolish?
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All elections in democracies are basically popularity contests. There are some who pay attention to the substance but then most of those are politically aligned already. That just leaves a small % who actually can be swayed by the political platforms of the parties involved.
Heck even those voting on the platforms are swayed more by salesmanship than substance.
Go ahead call me a cynic if you like.
 
Quag said:
All elections in democracies are basically popularity contests. There are some who pay attention to the substance but then most of those are politically aligned already. That just leaves a small % who actually can be swayed by the political platforms of the parties involved. Heck even those voting on the platforms are swayed more by salesmanship than substance.
Go ahead call me a cynic if you like.
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Quebec may decide the election, and they tend to vote en bloc. At least in Canada there are non-confidence votes which can force another election. I'll wager our American friends would like a do-over.
 
Grant said:
Quebec may decide the election, and they tend to vote en bloc. At least in Canada there are non-confidence votes which can force another election. I'll wager our American friends would like a do-over.
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Well polls are suggesting that: the NDP will take the rural areas, the Liberals will take Montreal and Quebec City, and the Bloc may disappear which would be great. All polls suggest the Liberals will win a majority government though, they might even take some Alberta ridings.
 
Grant said:
That would be the equivalent of the Americans electing Barrack Obama. Are Canadians really that foolish?
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Well Obama is rather popular here, even in Alberta.
 
Ganesh said:
A federal election is coming in less than a year, and the troops are already being mobilized. We have a bible thumping capitalist with a reputation for slinging mud, a small "s" socialist firebrand, known for his oration (and sometimes hot temper), and of course the Boy Wonder, now head of the ambivalent party, and hoping to get free of his father's shadow.

How will it turn out? What sort of memorable slam-dunks, or gaffs, do you anticipate? Who will win? Majority or minority parliament?
Click to expand...

The election is a long way out, but I'll bet it will be another Conservative majority returned to parliament. And I'll even give you three solid reasons why.

1. The Harper Conservatives will be showing a budget surplus by the end of this fiscal year and will be introducing tax cuts in the Spring budget as well as surpluses on the horizon for as far as the eye can see.

2. Not enough people have actually heard Justin Trudeau speak - he literally sounds like an airhead valley girl. When people actually see Trudeau in the debates with Harper and Mulcair, Trudeau will drop like a stone.

3. Trudeau has badly played the Iraq/Syria/ISIS game and has looked pathetically weak, indecisive, and petty and definitely not ready for prime time.

Polls are already starting to show a definitive trend away from the Liberals towards the Conservatives and that trend will only grow stronger and Canadians are a cautious people and will not risk their prosperity and the steady hand that has run the country the past decade on Trudeau, who makes Obama look brilliant in comparison.
 
CanadaJohn said:
The election is a long way out, but I'll bet it will be another Conservative majority returned to parliament. And I'll even give you three solid reasons why.

1. The Harper Conservatives will be showing a budget surplus by the end of this fiscal year and will be introducing tax cuts in the Spring budget as well as surpluses on the horizon for as far as the eye can see.

2. Not enough people have actually heard Justin Trudeau speak - he literally sounds like an airhead valley girl. When people actually see Trudeau in the debates with Harper and Mulcair, Trudeau will drop like a stone.

3. Trudeau has badly played the Iraq/Syria/ISIS game and has looked pathetically weak, indecisive, and petty and definitely not ready for prime time.

Polls are already starting to show a definitive trend away from the Liberals towards the Conservatives and that trend will only grow stronger and Canadians are a cautious people and will not risk their prosperity and the steady hand that has run the country the past decade on Trudeau, who makes Obama look brilliant in comparison.
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Pretty much agree with your reasoning, but one must also not underestimate the ability of the populace to vote on the basis of a few 20 second sound bites, and a debonair appearance on TV. Trudeau is the pretty boy with the famous name and the breathless energy. He can be packaged and sold to a clientele with attention deficit disorder, given enough intensive care by his spin doctor team.

I predict a Liberal minority, with the Conservatives forming the official opposition (Harper will resign), and the NDP making a significant, but disappointing third place.
 
CanadaJohn said:
The election is a long way out, but I'll bet it will be another Conservative majority returned to parliament. And I'll even give you three solid reasons why.

1. The Harper Conservatives will be showing a budget surplus by the end of this fiscal year and will be introducing tax cuts in the Spring budget as well as surpluses on the horizon for as far as the eye can see.

2. Not enough people have actually heard Justin Trudeau speak - he literally sounds like an airhead valley girl. When people actually see Trudeau in the debates with Harper and Mulcair, Trudeau will drop like a stone.

3. Trudeau has badly played the Iraq/Syria/ISIS game and has looked pathetically weak, indecisive, and petty and definitely not ready for prime time.

Polls are already starting to show a definitive trend away from the Liberals towards the Conservatives and that trend will only grow stronger and Canadians are a cautious people and will not risk their prosperity and the steady hand that has run the country the past decade on Trudeau, who makes Obama look brilliant in comparison.
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I'm very happy to hear you say that because that was my assessment also. I just haven't been watching it closely enough to give a fair comment and just saw the polls to see Trudeau was ahead.
 
CanadaJohn said:
The election is a long way out, but I'll bet it will be another Conservative majority returned to parliament. And I'll even give you three solid reasons why.

1. The Harper Conservatives will be showing a budget surplus by the end of this fiscal year and will be introducing tax cuts in the Spring budget as well as surpluses on the horizon for as far as the eye can see.

2. Not enough people have actually heard Justin Trudeau speak - he literally sounds like an airhead valley girl. When people actually see Trudeau in the debates with Harper and Mulcair, Trudeau will drop like a stone.

3. Trudeau has badly played the Iraq/Syria/ISIS game and has looked pathetically weak, indecisive, and petty and definitely not ready for prime time.

Polls are already starting to show a definitive trend away from the Liberals towards the Conservatives and that trend will only grow stronger and Canadians are a cautious people and will not risk their prosperity and the steady hand that has run the country the past decade on Trudeau, who makes Obama look brilliant in comparison.
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1. Yeah that could help them out but people seem less concerned about deficits as they were 20 years ago.
2. He does sometimes sound like a boob, but he can also come across very well when he is well prepared. It is however kinda irrelevant as far too many people pay no attention to anything they say but get their info from sources that tend to be fairly patisan and many of them seem to have decided HE is the guy.
3. Really don't think many people are paying attention to that. Most of those that do have already made up their minds one way or the other.

Then there is the whole Mike Duffy thing that will be going on around the time of the next election. Regardless of whether the conservatives are actually guilty of doing anything it will be used by both the Liberals and the NDP to attack harper and the media has already shown they like this story so it will be in full bloom.

Only time will tell, but unless something drastic happens I think the election is in the bag for Trudeau.

I reserve the right to be wrong
 
Ganesh said:
Pretty much agree with your reasoning, but one must also not underestimate the ability of the populace to vote on the basis of a few 20 second sound bites, and a debonair appearance on TV. Trudeau is the pretty boy with the famous name and the breathless energy. He can be packaged and sold to a clientele with attention deficit disorder, given enough intensive care by his spin doctor team.

I predict a Liberal minority, with the Conservatives forming the official opposition (Harper will resign), and the NDP making a significant, but disappointing third place.
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I think the NDP is going to get pummeled in the next election. Basically they did so well because Quebec turned from the Bloc to the NDP and Jack Layton. With Jack gone and Justin in all indications are that Quebec will swing back to the Liberals.
 
Quag said:
I think the NDP is going to get pummeled in the next election. Basically they did so well because Quebec turned from the Bloc to the NDP and Jack Layton. With Jack gone and Justin in all indications are that Quebec will swing back to the Liberals.
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True, but the Trudeau name is still not popular among a segment of Quebec society. It tends to be a little further to the left politically also, and with the NDP, at least they know what they are getting in that regard. With the Ambivalent Party, it depends on wind speed and direction.
 
Ganesh said:
True, but the Trudeau name is still not popular among a segment of Quebec society. It tends to be a little further to the left politically also, and with the NDP, at least they know what they are getting in that regard. With the Ambivalent Party, it depends on wind speed and direction.
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Untill the last election Quebec, despite often having more in common with the NDP than the liberals, NEVER voted NDP. Jack Layton and the disillusionment with the Bloc and anger still with the sponsorship scandal were the reasons they did well in the last election.
Most Quebecers do not equate Trudeau with the sponsorship scandal and his father was so long ago that many of them recognize the name and nothing more. Lets face it name recognition is very important.
I could be wrong about Trudeau winning a majority as long as he doesn't screw up, but I will be astounded if the NDP doesn't get basically wiped out in Quebec regardless of what happens.
 
Quag said:
1. Yeah that could help them out but people seem less concerned about deficits as they were 20 years ago.
2. He does sometimes sound like a boob, but he can also come across very well when he is well prepared. It is however kinda irrelevant as far too many people pay no attention to anything they say but get their info from sources that tend to be fairly patisan and many of them seem to have decided HE is the guy.
3. Really don't think many people are paying attention to that. Most of those that do have already made up their minds one way or the other.

Then there is the whole Mike Duffy thing that will be going on around the time of the next election. Regardless of whether the conservatives are actually guilty of doing anything it will be used by both the Liberals and the NDP to attack harper and the media has already shown they like this story so it will be in full bloom.

Only time will tell, but unless something drastic happens I think the election is in the bag for Trudeau.

I reserve the right to be wrong
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Why would the electorate move away from Harper when, by all appearances, Canada has done very well under his leadership?
 
Grant said:
Why would the electorate move away from Harper when, by all appearances, Canada has done very well under his leadership?
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Govts often fall due to bad economies but doing well (relatively speaking) doesn't necessarily help a govt.
Unfortunately Elections have become more a popularity contest than anything else and Trudeau has more charisma than Harper.
 
Quag said:
Govts often fall due to bad economies but doing well (relatively speaking) doesn't necessarily help a govt.
Unfortunately Elections have become more a popularity contest than anything else and Trudeau has more charisma than Harper.
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That doesn't say much for the Canadian electorate.
 
Quag said:
It is the same for every democracy.*edit* Yes I am a cynic
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Well, perhaps I'm unrealistically but optimistically hoping that the Canadian electorate is a little bit smarter.
 
Quag said:
Govts often fall due to bad economies but doing well (relatively speaking) doesn't necessarily help a govt.
Unfortunately Elections have become more a popularity contest than anything else and Trudeau has more charisma than Harper.
Click to expand...

You're missing the most obvious wildcard here. Ontarians, historically, have put in office a federal government that is the opposite of its provincial government - Ontario just reelected a Liberal majority government (I won't comment on that disaster) so history will tell you that Ontarians will, in the majority, vote Conservative federally - it's why a Conservative government has been in place since 2006 while Ontario has had a Liberal government. Trudeau cannot be elected without significant gains in Ontario and unheard of gains in the west.
 
CanadaJohn said:
You're missing the most obvious wildcard here. Ontarians, historically, have put in office a federal government that is the opposite of its provincial government - Ontario just reelected a Liberal majority government (I won't comment on that disaster) so history will tell you that Ontarians will, in the majority, vote Conservative federally - it's why a Conservative government has been in place since 2006 while Ontario has had a Liberal government. Trudeau cannot be elected without significant gains in Ontario and unheard of gains in the west.
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The thing is though, polls are actually supporting that. The Liberals actually have a chance at taking ridings in Alberta and are very popular in Ontario.
 
Grant said:
Why would the electorate move away from Harper when, by all appearances, Canada has done very well under his leadership?
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Well a lot of people including myself take issue with how he has cut the budget, Harper appears to sell out to corporate interests especially Chinese ones, and everything over the past year for the most part has been shut down by the Supreme Court. All he has going for him is a surplus, that is all and a lot of people take issue with how he got that surplus.
 
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