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Old 12-11-07, 09:28 AM   #241
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

While the "did they or did they not stop their nuke program" aspect has gotten most of the attention, there is another aspect of this NIE that is troubling. The allegations of political influence has been made, with three of the principal architects being labeled by the WSJ as "hyper anti-Bush partisans." Whether or not the political leanings of those three played a role or not, there was certainly a political element present in this NIE, something that, at least in theory, is not supposed to happen. Consider the following excerpt from the NIE, when it states that Iran's behavior:

Quote:
"suggests that some combination of threats of intensified international scrutiny and pressures, along with opportunities for Iran to achieve its security, prestige and goals for regional influence in other ways, might -- if perceived by Iran's leaders as credible -- prompt Tehran to extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program."
This is a policy prescription, not an intelligence estimate. John McLaughlin, former CIA deputy director, wrote, "Because of their inherent uncertainties, estimates should not be seen as in any sense making policy, as many have assumed to be the case during the public furor over this one." Clearly, the authors of this NIE believed otherwise.

Furthermore, why would the President authorize the release of an NIE that is potentially damaging to the credibility of the US and its allies seeking to gain Iran's compliance with the NPT and its Additional Protocols? The answer can only be a fear that the NIE would surely be leaked, leading to accusations of "politicizing intelligence." But that, as one WSJ columnist observed,

Quote:
...means that we now have an "intelligence community" that acts as an authority unto itself, and cannot be trusted to obey its political masters, much less keep a secret. The administration's tacit acquiescence in this state of affairs may prove even more damaging than its wishful thinking on Iran.

For years it has been a staple of fever swamp politics to believe the U.S. government is in the grip of shadowy powers using "intelligence" as a tool of control. With the publication of this NIE, that is no longer a fantasy.
That last is of course an exaggeration. But one can't help but wonder, given the spate of leaks and partisan political activity of the last several years originating in the IC in general and particularly the CIA, just how much of an exaggeration?
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Old 12-11-07, 09:53 AM   #242
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

Perhaps we would know more if someone int the Bush Admin hadn't relayed info to known Iranian agents that we had cracked one of the Iranian codes.
But, you know, at the time, the folks working with / for the Iranians were Bush Admin "friends". Some of those "looked into his soul" friends - like Putin.

That kind of crap has to piss off folks in the Intel Community. It must suck to realize that the security problem is with your bosses.

It also may have upset some in the IC that the Bush Admin took a lead role in spreading Iranian disinformation wrt Iraq.

Those guys can be sooo touchy about these sorts of things.
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Old 12-11-07, 10:13 AM   #243
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

Quote:
Originally Posted by Simon W. Moon
That kind of crap has to piss off folks in the Intel Community. It must suck to realize that the security problem is with your bosses.

It also may have upset some in the IC that the Bush Admin took a lead role in spreading Iranian disinformation wrt Iraq.

Those guys can be sooo touchy about these sorts of things.
Upset? Touchy? Too f***ing bad. When they learn to get it right, then they can be upset and get all touchy. I find myself more and more in agreement with the assessment offered by Christopher Hitchens:

Quote:
Why, then, have our intelligence agencies helped to give the lying Iranian theocracy the appearance of a clean bill, while simultaneously and publicly (and with barely concealed relish) embarrassing the president and crippling his policy? It is not just a hypothetical strike on Iran that is rendered near-impossible by this estimate, but also the likelihood of any concerted diplomatic or economic pressure, as well. The policy of getting the United Nations to adopt sanctions on the regime, which was about to garner the crucial votes, can now be regarded as clinically dead. A fine day's work by those who claim to guard us while we sleep.
[...]
Despite a string of exposures going back all the way to the Church Commission, the CIA cannot rid itself of the impression that it has the right to subvert the democratic process both abroad and at home. Its criminality and arrogance could perhaps have been partially excused if it had ever got anything right, but, from predicting the indefinite survival of the Soviet Union to denying that Saddam Hussein was going to invade Kuwait, our spymasters have a Clouseau-like record, one that they have earned yet again with their exculpation of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. It was after the grotesque estimate of continued Soviet health and prosperity that the late Sen. Daniel Patrick Moynihan argued that the CIA should be abolished. It is high time for his proposal to be revived. The system is worse than useless—it's a positive menace. We need to shut the whole thing down and start again.
Editing to add a quick summary of IC successes, courtesy of a couple of posters from here,

Quote:
Gee…lets see
Botched up Kim’s daddy’s intentions.
Botched up China’s Yalu river resolve.
Botched up Russia’s H-bomb.
Botched up Russia’s space program.
Botched up Ho Chi.
Botched up Cambodia.
Botched up the Pueblo.
Botched up Tet.
Botched up Panama. (76…..someone just elected put the breaks on it)
Botched up Iran.
Botched up USSR falling.
Botched up Kuwait.
Botched up Osama.
Botched up Towers 1.
Botched up African bombings.
Botched up Towers 2.
Botched up WMD.
Botched up Iraq.

Missed the Letter which British intelligence leaked about U-boat bases in Mexico, which had a large part of getting us into WW1.

And at one time we estimated the Soviet Union had 600-1000 BISON bombers (Long range cold war bombers) when at the time… they had THREE…
Clouseau-like indeed. Very much so. Just my opinion. YMMV.

Last edited by oldreliable67; 12-11-07 at 10:27 AM.
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Old 12-11-07, 10:48 AM   #244
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

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Originally Posted by oldreliable67 View Post
Upset? Touchy? Too f***ing bad.
The Bush Admin reveals state secrets that hamper our ability to keep an eye on Iran's nuclear program and you say "too bad".
What a shame.

The Bush Admin promotes Iranian disinformation to the American public and you say, "too bad".
What a shame.

The Bush Admin puts a guy in charge of the Defense policy Advisory Board who tries to sell the the phone system that both the Fed Gov and US military(!) use to a known front for the Chinese military intel services against the objections of members of the IC and the military.
You probably say, "too bad" to that too, yes?


The Bush Admin is a serious, treacherous, untrustable security risk to the US.

Too bad.

What a shame.
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Old 12-11-07, 10:51 AM   #245
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

Quote:
Originally Posted by oldreliable67 View Post
Editing to add a quick summary of IC successes, courtesy of a couple of posters from here,
Clouseau-like indeed. Very much so. Just my opinion. YMMV.
You should compare this with record of the Bush Admin folks for this to be meaningful.
Some of these same folks were involved in a group B exercise on some of these same issues during Ford's Admin because they didn't think the IC was doing a good enough job. The group B folks got it even MORE wrong than the USIC.
So, however bad you think the IC is, the Bush Admin's crew are much worse.
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Old 12-11-07, 12:03 PM   #246
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

Quote:
Originally Posted by Simon W. Moon View Post
Perhaps we would know more if someone int the Bush Admin hadn't relayed info to known Iranian agents that we had cracked one of the Iranian codes.
But, you know, at the time, the folks working with / for the Iranians were Bush Admin "friends". Some of those "looked into his soul" friends - like Putin.

That kind of crap has to piss off folks in the Intel Community. It must suck to realize that the security problem is with your bosses.

It also may have upset some in the IC that the Bush Admin took a lead role in spreading Iranian disinformation wrt Iraq.

Those guys can be sooo touchy about these sorts of things.

I would imagine that outing a covert agent would also piss off the intel community.
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Old 12-11-07, 12:19 PM   #247
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

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I would imagine that outing a covert agent would also piss off the intel community.
That's a subject that's already been subject to a fortified and hardened state of denial. No point in bringing that one up.
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Old 12-11-07, 12:38 PM   #248
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

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Originally Posted by Simon W. Moon View Post
The Bush Admin reveals state secrets that hamper our ability to keep an eye on Iran's nuclear program and you say "too bad".
What a shame.
Trying to divert attention from the issue by alleging faults of others? There is no doubt that the Bush administration has its faults and can be criticized for a number of failures. Indeed, there are many things for which the Bush administration simply cannot be rationally defended. We can devote a whole different thread to that, all on its own. But lets stick to the issue at hand in this thread: the IC in general and the CIA in particular has a shoddy, miserable record, which has culminated to date, in an NIE and a process that appears quite flawed and politically motivated.

Quote:
The Bush Admin is a serious, treacherous, untrustable security risk to the US.
Then thank goodness, its certainly great that we've got this really wonderful, ace IC to help save the country.

Seems to me that there is/was a very good reason that Cheney referred to the CIA intel product as "crap." This "crap" to which Cheney refers goes back long before the Bush administration came into office.
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Old 12-11-07, 12:51 PM   #249
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

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Originally Posted by oldreliable67 View Post
Trying to divert attention from the issue by alleging faults of others?
But lets stick to the issue at hand in this thread: the IC in general and the CIA in particular has a shoddy, miserable record, which has culminated to date, in an NIE and a process that appears quite flawed and politically motivated.
Just pointing out that the "crap" is the best game in town and that the crap-callers have a much worse record and are even less reliable.

Quote:
... a process that appears quite flawed and politically motivated.
I thought that the Bush Admin had revamprd teh process in light of the 9-11 commission findings and in light of the past failures.
Did the Bush Admin **** up the revamping process too.
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Old 12-11-07, 12:53 PM   #250
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Re: U.S. Says Iran Ended Atomic Arms Work

Quote:
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Trying to divert attention from the issue by alleging faults of others?
Yes, that's exactly what the Bush Admin and it's backers are trying to do.
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