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Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

Chappy

Chappy

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The Paul Ryan budget plan claims its first victim.

Excerpted from “Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race” By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ, “The Caucus” (blog), The New York Times, May 24, 2011
[SIZE="+2"]D[/SIZE]emocrats scored an upset in one of New York’s most conservative congressional districts on Tuesday, dealing a blow to the national Republican Party in a race that largely turned on the party’s plan to overhaul Medicare.

The results set off elation among Democrats and soul-searching among Republicans, who questioned whether the party should rethink its commitment to the Medicare plan, which appears to have become a liability as 2012 elections loom.

Two months ago, the Democrat, Kathy Hochul, was considered an all-but-certain loser. But Ms. Hochul seized on her Republican rival’s embrace of the proposal from Representative Paul Ryan, Republican of Wisconsin, to overhaul Medicare, and she never let up.

With 66 percent of the precincts reporting, Ms. Hockul led with 48 percent of the vote, to 43 percent for the Republican candidate, Jane L. Corwin …
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Excerpted from “GOP candidate in New York special election goes to court” By: CNN's Kate Bolduan and Deirdre Walsh, “political ticker…” (blog), CNN, May 24th, 2011, 08:39 PM ET
[SIZE="+2"]A[/SIZE]nticipating a very close race, the Republican candidate in New York's special election has put the wheels in motion for a potential hand count of certain ballots in the already-contentious race. …
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the party that promises the many the wealth of the few is normally going to have an advantage over the party that tells the many they cannot keep suckling on the public teat forever
 
The shape of things to come.

As the great gabriel Heater used to say "there is good news tonight".
 
I think a drink to the weeper of the house for ramming that vote thru is also in order.:drink
 
donc said:
Wow,that's been in republican hands since around the civil war hasn't it?
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Yeah. Democrats ran a spoiler fake "Tea Party" candidate to split the Republican vote. Somehow the NYTimes seems to have neglected to mention that.

So ya'll get an extra seat in Congress; but anyone trying to sell you that it is some kind of major swing-trend is offering snake-oil.
 
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Ross Perot at least believed what he stood for. This guy was a Democrat candidate for the same area.
 
the term "fake tea party" is redundant.
 
i think you are confusing them for paid union protestors.
 
cpwill said:
Ross Perot at least believed what he stood for. This guy was a Democrat candidate for the same area.
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winning at all costs with no honesty is SOP with the demosocialists
 
donc said:
I think a drink to the weeper of the house for ramming that vote thru is also in order.:drink
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I'll drink to that!:party
 
Chappy said:
The Paul Ryan budget plan claims its first victim.
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This the most Republic district in New York, it's definitely a referendum on Ryan's let Gramdma die, Medicare plan.

Ryanmentum
 
:shrug: I'm willing to lose one seat if that is the cost of being the only party with an actual solution to our debt crises.

however, that wasn't even the trade that was made. the republican wasn't beaten by the Ryan Plan, but rather by a particularly dirty political tactic. So congratulations, guys; way to go :roll:
 
cpwill said:
Ross Perot at least believed what he stood for. This guy was a Democrat candidate for the same area.
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I thought the Tea Party wasn't about partisanship. I was told, by people on here, that anyone who wants a government who listens to the people can be a part of the Tea Party regardless of party identity.

Guess you don't subscribe to that?

Also, Davis had more name recognition than either of the major party candidates - thus the voters of the district knew who he was - i.e. a former Democrat. Thus, he should actually pull more from Hochul than he did Corwin were it based solely on party identity.

Now, I think Corwin really screwed up when her chief of staff did the fake assault video on Davis. It was at that point that Hochul really began to pull ahead. Bad move.

The medicare thing didn't help, but it was just one part of this reliably Republican district turning blue.
 
pbrauer said:
This the most Republic district in New York, it's definitely a referendum on Ryan's let Gramdma die, Medicare plan.

Ryanmentum
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actually its not

the conservative vote was split

but you dems appeal to more and more government

those addicted to the public teat don't want to suckle less
 
FilmFestGuy said:
I thought the Tea Party wasn't about partisanship. I was told, by people on here, that anyone who wants a government who listens to the people can be a part of the Tea Party regardless of party identity.

Guess you don't subscribe to that?
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I can't answer for whoever it was that told you that the Tea Party was about nothing more than government "listening" to the people, but this guy wasn't it. He put himself on the ballot specifically just to put a "Tea Party" candidate there, and then generally didn't run. This guy was willing to self-finance a run as a Democrat - that's a true believer, not a Tea Party Small Government Republicans Are Spending Too Much type.

I agree the Medicare thing probably didn't help; but it was Davis that killed the Republican shot at this thing, not Ryan.
 
cpwill said:
i think you are confusing them for paid union protestors.
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no - that would be an oxymoron - two things contradicting each other - and in that case - not even in the real world.
 
TurtleDude said:
actually its not

the conservative vote was split

but you dems appeal to more and more government

those addicted to the public teat don't want to suckle less
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Excuses, excuses.
Obviously, you do not know what Ryans plan would mean to seniors with preexisting conditions, such as cancer. Who is going sell health insurance to them?
 
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pbrauer said:
Sour grapes.
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truth-and I couldn't care less-the GOP still has the house
remind me how the last major election turned out

I recall you pissing and moaning about that
 
cpwill said:
:shrug: I'm willing to lose one seat if that is the cost of being the only party with an actual solution to our debt crises.

however, that wasn't even the trade that was made. the republican wasn't beaten by the Ryan Plan, but rather by a particularly dirty political tactic. So congratulations, guys; way to go :roll:
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Get used to it.... this was only a down payment .... a very small down payment. This one seat will seem as if a drop of water compared to the deluge heading your way. And thanks to right wing extremists for the hard slap.
 
TurtleDude said:
truth-and I couldn't care less-the GOP still has the house
remind me how the last major election turned out

I recall you pissing and moaning about that
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But Ryan came up with a stupid plan to throw grandma over the cliff and all but 4 Republicons voted for it.
 
cpwill said:
I can't answer for whoever it was that told you that the Tea Party was about nothing more than government "listening" to the people, but this guy wasn't it. He put himself on the ballot specifically just to put a "Tea Party" candidate there, and then generally didn't run. This guy was willing to self-finance a run as a Democrat - that's a true believer, not a Tea Party Small Government Republicans Are Spending Too Much type.

I agree the Medicare thing probably didn't help; but it was Davis that killed the Republican shot at this thing, not Ryan.
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Usually when a party significantly splits its vote, it's evidence of some sort of problem with the party's standard bearer. Maybe not always, but a good fraction of the time. That's why I don't think you can just add up the vote totals of the Republican candidate and the Tea Party candidate, and conclude that the Republican would have won in a two-way race against the Democrat. Occasionally that might be true, but usually the third party candidate would never have been successful in the first place if the people who would normally vote Republican were satisfied with the Republican nominee. It's the same reason that I don't think Ross Perot was a spoiler for George H.W. Bush...Perot would've been an asterisk like most third party candidates if there hadn't been any disaffection with Bush for him to tap into.

Now, whether or not this Tea Party candidate was legitimate, I couldn't tell you. I've never heard of him and didn't even know (or care) that there was a special election until last night. But I don't think you can conclude that his votes would have otherwise gone to the Republican.

And I agree that the predictive value of these special elections on the results of the next general election is nil.
 
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