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Thread: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

  1. #31
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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Quote Originally Posted by Chappy View Post
    This was one of the most conservative districts in New York. The Republican candidate got 74% of the vote in the last election. This vote for the Democrat represents a complete rejection of the Ryan plan by a very conservative electorate.
    is that based on evidence or the talking points from DNC spam central?



  2. #32
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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Quote Originally Posted by Chappy View Post
    This was one of the most conservative districts in New York. The Republican candidate got 74% of the vote in the last election. This vote for the Democrat represents a complete rejection of the Ryan plan by a very conservative electorate.
    Exactly....


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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    I'd warn some people in here about saying it's a referendum on ryans plan or anything of that nature frankly.

    I seem to remember some of you being very upset about people calling some of the races following obamas election that the right called a referendum on him...
    I tend to agree. I think the only fair conclusion to draw is that more people voted for the Democrat than the Republican in this special election. Anything else is media spin. The media reads WAY too much into these special elections, when the most likely explanation is "**** happens."
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  4. #34
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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    is that based on evidence or the talking points from DNC spam central?
    Honestly, would evidence actually convince you of anything? Really?

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  5. #35
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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Quote Originally Posted by TurtleDude View Post
    its easy to win elections when you tell people you will keep giving them all they want and they won't have to pay for it

    ruining the country to keep the dem parasites in power has been your party's SOP since 1932

    Not really. The Dem SOP is to bail the country out of economic messes left by Republicans, as it has done in 1932, 1992 and now 2008.

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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Quote Originally Posted by upsideguy View Post
    Not really. The Dem SOP is to bail the country out of economic messes left by Republicans, as it has done in 1932, 1992 and now 2008.
    remind me how the bailing is doing now

    you seemed to forget 1980 and 2000 where the GOP had to clean up the carter malaise and the clinton dot com bubble burst

    the current mess started when the botox bitch became speaker of the house



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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Quote Originally Posted by haymarket View Post
    Get used to it.... this was only a down payment .... a very small down payment.
    oh, I definitely believe that we are going to see an entire campaign of fake "Tea Party" candidates emerge funded by left-leaning sources as this is now a twice-proven tactic.

    we will see if it and demagogic fear-mongering are enough in 2012 to get ya'll through or not.

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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Let's not forget that Ryan's plan in right wing social engineering.


  9. #39
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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Quote Originally Posted by cpwill View Post
    oh, I definitely believe that we are going to see an entire campaign of fake "Tea Party" candidates emerge funded by left-leaning sources as this is now a twice-proven tactic.

    we will see if it and demagogic fear-mongering are enough in 2012 to get ya'll through or not.
    This nothing more than projection on your part. I seem to remember Repulicons playing this game by funding Green party members. Ralph Nadar comes to mind and I'm sure there are others.


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    Re: Democrat Wins Upstate New York Congressional Race

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    Usually when a party significantly splits its vote, it's evidence of some sort of problem with the party's standard bearer. Maybe not always, but a good fraction of the time.
    eh, I would say there is a problem with the party's image. that was the impetus for the development of the Tea Party, after all; disgust with both parties, but mainly a rejection of the notion that Republicans could be trusted to live up to their small-government fiscal-responsibility rhetoric.

    So I would say that the Tea Party as a right-wing-rebel to the Republican Party remains powerful symbols. Combined with a disgraced local Republican Party (thanks to a disgraced local republican), that conflict of images was enough to hand victory over by splitting the base.

    That's why I don't think you can just add up the vote totals of the Republican candidate and the Tea Party candidate, and conclude that the Republican would have won in a two-way race against the Democrat. Occasionally that might be true, but usually the third party candidate would never have been successful in the first place if the people who would normally vote Republican were satisfied with the Republican nominee. It's the same reason that I don't think Ross Perot was a spoiler for George H.W. Bush...Perot would've been an asterisk like most third party candidates if there hadn't been any disaffection with Bush for him to tap into.
    Presidential politics are about the candidate. charged special elections for house races are now more often about the party. in 2010, our local Sheriff lost reelection - he had held the office more than a decade. Now, he was a fine Sherrif, and most people couldn't have even told you his name. So why did he lose? Because he had a (D) after his last name, and folks were pissed off about the Bailouts, the Stimulus, the Lack of Jobs, and Obamacare.

    Now, whether or not this Tea Party candidate was legitimate, I couldn't tell you. I've never heard of him and didn't even know (or care) that there was a special election until last night. But I don't think you can conclude that his votes would have otherwise gone to the Republican.
    i think it's a pretty safe assumption that they were far more likely to go to the republican than the democrat - just as disaffected Nader Fans weren't about to vote for Bush in 2008, and Paulites are more likely to vote for whoever actually wins the Republican nomination in 2012.

    And I agree that the predictive value of these special elections on the results of the next general election is nil.
    if there is a string of such events that all indicate the same general thrust and dont' have the kind of factors present in this election, they can be indicative. but this one? it's about as useful as the Dede Scozzafoza disaster.

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