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Thread: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    I don't, but I really don't need one. I've pointed out that the methodology is flawed. Knowing that, only a blind partisan would *assume* the data to be accurate. If you think there's merit despite the problems I've outlined, it's up to you to argue why.
    You claimed "they don't agree" - why make that claim if you have no evidence?

    And you didn't "point out that the methodology is flawed" (except the aggregating of the data, which I'm addressing) you simply accused Nate Silver of being a hack - which is a fallacy, not a logical arguement.

    So you make claims you didn't support, and you attacked the messenger - and you then claimed that anyone who doesn't agree with your premise (that the data is inaccurate) are partisan hacks - which is also another fallacy.

    And you top all these fallacies by implying that you're right without having to prove your claim ("it's up to [me] to argue why" even though you claimed "they don't agree").

    So here's my arguement - your arguements are built on fallacies.



    First, the questions aren't the same, and this is another glaring error from this idiot who pretends to be a statistician. If they were the same, it would certainly lend more credibility, but even then, ....
    Are they sufficiently different? I read some of them and they are very similiar:

    CNN/Opinion Research Corporation Poll. March 11-13, 2011. N=1,023 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.


    "We'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. The Tea Party movement."
    ABC News/Washington Post Poll. March 10-13, 2011. N=1,005 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.5.


    "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the political movement known as the Tea Party?"
    CBS News Poll. Feb. 11-14, 2011. N=1,031 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 3.


    "Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about the Tea Party movement yet to have an opinion?"
    USA Today/Gallup Poll. Jan. 14-16, 2011. N=1,032 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 4.


    "Next, we'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. How about the Tea Party Movement?"
    AP-GfK Poll conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media. Sept. 8-13, 2010. N=1,000 adults nationwide. Margin of error ± 4.2.

    "Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neither favorable nor unfavorable opinion of the Tea Party movement?"
    ABC News/Washington Post Poll. June 3-6, 2010. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.5.

    "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the political movement known as the Tea Party?"
    Quinnipiac University Poll. April 14-19, 2010. N=1,930 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 2.2.


    "Is your opinion of the Tea Party movement favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about it?"
    FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. April 6-7, 2010. N=900 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.


    "I'm going to read you the names of several individuals. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each one. If you've never heard of someone, please just say so. The Tea Party Movement."
    Washington Post Poll. March 23-26, 2010. N=1,000 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.


    "Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the political movement known as the Tea Party?"

    ....different polling organizations use different sampling techniques and even order effects can play a huge a role.
    This problem also plagues other forms of empirical reviews. So do you claim that this kind of statistical technique is not credible or that there is a problem just with this particular case - if the latter, you haven't shown us information regarding this particular case to show that the differences in sampling techniques is enough to make the result unreliable. You just made a generalised unsupported claim.
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    So lets pretend this is ALL true and not part of the democrat hit machine obama re-election need an enemy mission...

    Are you saying folks no longer want smaller government, more accountable reps, reduced spending, and lower taxes? I don't think so, call it the Tea party or whatever, its the ideals of the tea party folks want, not so much a tea "P"arty.


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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    So lets pretend this is ALL true and not part of the democrat hit machine obama re-election need an enemy mission...

    Are you saying folks no longer want smaller government, more accountable reps, reduced spending, and lower taxes? I don't think so, call it the Tea party or whatever, its the ideals of the tea party folks want, not so much a tea "P"arty.


    This is who we are.
    My opinion is and always has been that there are multiple demographic groups in the US who all want different things. Also, the tea party is as of yet untested in a presidential election where the voting population is higher. Generally in the nonpresidential elections only those who are most interested vote which means smaller groups can matter more.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    My opinion is and always has been that there are multiple demographic groups in the US who all want different things. Also, the tea party is as of yet untested in a presidential election where the voting population is higher. Generally in the nonpresidential elections only those who are most interested vote which means smaller groups can matter more.


    But do you think with record deficits, stalled economy, etc, that the tea party, more its stated values, won't be as big an issue come the next election?
    Let evil swiftly befall those who have wrongly condemned us

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    But do you think with record deficits, stalled economy, etc, that the tea party, more its stated values, won't be as big an issue come the next election?
    I think that the people who were ready to shink government all along have already gotten on board and the regular folks still need to be convinced. If you look at polling on an issue by issue level, people tend to trend less conservative than they do if the liberal/conservative question is asked. Because of that, while people in general do support closing the budget gap (and even then, it tends to not be people's highest priority, right now that seems to be employment issues), they don't necessarily always want to do it by reducing spending. For example increasing taxes on the highest brackets tends to have around 70% popularity from the polls I have seen.

    On this forum, liberals and conservatives tend to do a lot of posturing and circle jerking, but in the rest of the country, none of what we do here matters. One concern I have about this forum is that we use it to convince ourselves that our various viewpoints are right while leaving the real world behind. This is why polling matters.
    Last edited by tacomancer; 04-05-11 at 12:19 PM.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    So lets pretend this is ALL true and not part of the democrat hit machine obama re-election need an enemy mission...
    Why does anyone have to pretend to anything?

    Are you saying folks no longer want smaller government, more accountable reps, reduced spending, and lower taxes? I don't think so, call it the Tea party or whatever, its the ideals of the tea party folks want, not so much a tea "P"arty.


    This is who we are.
    Is there anyone who is not for better access to education, equal and just society, reducing poverty etc...? What the hell does all that means? How do you make government small - by attacking the Unions? How to get Representatives to be more accountable - by gerrymandering? How do you reduce spending - by cutting Planned Parenthood but ask for tax credit for corporations? How do you cut taxes - at the expense of what and whom? Some people feel reducing the deficit is more important than cutting taxes right now.

    Political rhetoric is all fine and dandy but the devil is in the details.
    Last edited by nonpareil; 04-05-11 at 12:22 PM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by nonpareil View Post
    Why does anyone have to pretend to anything?



    Are there anyone who is not for better access to education, equal and just society, reducing poverty etc...? What the hell does all that means? How do you make government small - by attacking the Unions? How to get Representatives to be more accountable - by gerrymandering? How do you reduce spending - by cutting Planned Parenthood but ask for tax credit for corporations? How do you cut taxes - at the expense of what and whom? Some people feel reducing the deficit is more important than cutting taxes right now.

    Political rhetoric is all fine and dandy but the devil is in the fine prints.


    lets do this one at a time. show me how the tea party is against an "equal and just society"....
    Let evil swiftly befall those who have wrongly condemned us

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    from the nate silver link. Again data is fully transparent to anyone who wants to look at the methodology.
    And of course none of this has to do with the lies about the Tea Party over the last couple of years? The Congressional Black Caucus "spitting" hoax last year?

    Give me the major media in this country for 6 months and I will convince half the people that Mother Theresa was nothing but a back alley whore from Soho.
    The national security of the United States can never be left in the hands of liberals.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Mars View Post
    And of course none of this has to do with the lies about the Tea Party over the last couple of years? The Congressional Black Caucus "spitting" hoax last year?

    Give me the major media in this country for 6 months and I will convince half the people that Mother Theresa was nothing but a back alley whore form Soho.
    I have no idea whether it does or not.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    I have no idea whether it does or not.
    You don't know if lies and hoaxes affect people’s opinions? Really?
    The national security of the United States can never be left in the hands of liberals.

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