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Thread: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by nonpareil View Post
    Since I never said that the Tea Party is against "equal and just society", quite the opposite, I hope you note it and make more informed comment about my post next time.


    verywell, lets move to the next set.


    Quote Originally Posted by you
    What the hell does all that means? How do you make government small - by attacking the Unions?
    The tea party has attacked unions? please show me where the tea party has attacked unions other than to suggest that government workers should pay about the same for thier pensions and what not as the private sector.


    How to get Representatives to be more accountable - by gerrymandering?

    Show me were the TeaParty "gerrymandered".



    How do you reduce spending - by cutting Planned Parenthood but ask for tax credit for corporations

    Show me where the tea party asked for a tax credit for corporations....
    Let evil swiftly befall those who have wrongly condemned us

  2. #142
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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Having conducted a number of surveys, I can tell you first hand that the wording of the item can GREATLY impact the results. We’ve sometimes spent an hour or more quibbling over a single word. So what you describe as "very similar" may in fact be very similar but lead to very dissimilar results nonetheless.

    That being said, I’m not as concerned about differences in the wording of that portion of each item - (I’d be willing to bet that order effects would play a more significant role) – a much bigger problem is that he’s combining data that was collected using different scales. Here a just a few illustrative examples:

    ABC: Favorable, Unfavorable, or Unsure?
    CBS: Favorable, Not favorable, Undecided, Haven’t heard enough or Refuse to answer?
    NBC: Very positive, Somewhat positive, Neutral, Somewhat negative, Very negative, or Don’t know?
    USA: Favorable, Unfavorable, Never heard of it, or Unsure?
    AP: Favorable, Unfavorable, Neither, Unsure?

    This is a huge problem for lots of reasons!

    To illustrate a few by comparing the first two polls:

    1) Respondents for ABC have almost a forced choice comparison between Favorable and Unfavorable – "Unsure" is included as a catch-all, but people can interpret that in a variety of ways which (I assume) is why a lot of the other polls break it out.

    2) Respondents for CBS are asked to indicate their opinion on a *much* different scale. Whereas the ABC poll tries to push people into a simple dichotomy, the CBS poll allows people ample room for that gray area with “undecided” and “haven’t heard enough” options. That latter option is especially noteworthy in that it brings certainty into the equation, prompting a “favorable/not favorable” response only when you’re reasonably sure you won’t change your mind in the future.

    They’re really two different questions. You would expect that someone with limited exposure (maybe they caught a few negative headlines) – would classify their opinion as “unfavorable” on the ABC poll, and maybe “haven’t heard enough” on the CBS poll.

    Predictably, people are less willing to commit to a favorable/unfavorable opinion when they are given choices that more closely reflect their opinion. People consistently report "unfavorable" opinions at roughly twice the rate as those in the CBS poll:

    ABC
    36% Favorable
    48% Unfavorable
    16% Unsure

    CBS
    18% Favorable
    25% Unfavorable
    19% Undecided
    36% Haven't heard enough to decide
    2% Refused to answer

    Going back to the trendline, hopefully the above is sufficient to show that his trendline doesn't have a consistent meaning - what it means to "unfavorable" changes depending on which polls are used to determine a given point on the curve. Further, it's not difficult to imagine that spurious trends could appear simply because of how the CBS poll and other "low predictors" are temporally distributed in relation to the ABC poll and other "high predictors."
    Fair enough. So if we can't aggregate the polls, we can look at them individually as you suggested, and I did looked at them individually, and most of them do point to an increasing unfavourable views for the Tea Party, yet you claimed that they don't agree with that trend. So naturally, I need to ask: do you have evidence to support that claim?
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

  3. #143
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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    verywell, lets move to the next set.
    Next "set" of what? You wrongly accuse me of something, if you don't have the decency to admit to it, at least don't act as if you are in the right.






    The tea party has attacked unions? please show me where the tea party has attacked unions other than to suggest that government workers should pay about the same for thier pensions and what not as the private sector.



    Show me were the TeaParty "gerrymandered".




    Show me where the tea party asked for a tax credit for corporations....
    Do you really need to be "shown" the fact that the GOP (which the Tea Party is an extreme wing of) has taken actions that include going after the unions, gerrymandering (in Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and more) and has asked for the Bush tax cuts to be continued (which includes cuts and credit for corporations) and that some GOP governor has instituted tax cuts despite claims of budget constrain too?


    I find it telling that you fail to grasp the main arguement I made which is that political rhetoric is just that - political rhetoric, it's the details of the proposal that is the problem and lead to disagreement. Democrats and Republicans often want the same thing, they just have different ideas of how to get it done and the priority with which they give it. As a result what you see as "competitive business environment" Democrats see as "tax cut for corporations and the rich". What Democrats see as "better access to education", you see as "student welfare". But of course you couldn't take off your partisanship long enough to understand that.
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    verywell, lets move to the next set.




    The tea party has attacked unions? please show me where the tea party has attacked unions other than to suggest that government workers should pay about the same for thier pensions and what not as the private sector.





    Show me were the TeaParty "gerrymandered".






    Show me where the tea party asked for a tax credit for corporations....
    Don't you just love how they spew nonsense to make us look bad? They don't have any proof of wrongdoing, so they try to discredit us with nonsense. Which brings me to one of my favorite quotes. "Annoy a liberal, use logice and fact."
    If you strike me down, I'll become more powerful than you could possibly imagine.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    No, I think when he complained about "platitudes" he double downed with his own learned misinformation, hence his departure from the thread when challenged.
    You really do have an inflated opinion of yourself. Some of us have a life and work outside of this forum. This is a hobby I enjoy but I don't follow it every minute of my day nor is it that high a priority in my life. Sometimes, some comments are just not interesting enough for me to remember checking unless I have time to check my subscription page. Understood?
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by DashingAmerican View Post
    Don't you just love how they spew nonsense to make us look bad? They don't have any proof of wrongdoing, so they try to discredit us with nonsense. Which brings me to one of my favorite quotes. "Annoy a liberal, use logice and fact."
    If you people actually use logic and fact, it would not be annoying. It's the hyper-partisanship coupled with lack of reading comprehension that really annoys.
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by nonpareil View Post
    Fair enough. So if we can't aggregate the polls, we can look at them individually as you suggested, and I did looked at them individually, and most of them do point to an increasing unfavourable views for the Tea Party, yet you claimed that they don't agree with that trend. So naturally, I need to ask: do you have evidence to support that claim?
    My earlier comment was in reference to the thread topic and the Nate Silver trendline - both of which purport to show a recent and signficant rise in unfavorable views. Do you believe that sufficient evidence exists for a "definite trend" in recent months? If so, we can compare evidence.

    If instead, your claim of "increasing unfavorable views" is (as I suspect) largely based on the early data, we can save ourselves the trouble. I certainly recognize that many polls show a significant rise in unfavorability in the early part of 2010. It appears that a good number of those who were still undecided as of late Jan developed unfavorable views of the tea party over the next month or two.

    It's much harder to argue for a reliable trend after that point. From Summer 2010 forward, unfavorability is rather flat (the one notable exception of course being CNN).

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by nonpareil View Post
    Maybe that's what you think, but since you only offer one legitimate possible problem (aggregation) - you are inflating your claim to the "flawed methodology".
    I don't understand the point you're trying to make. Are you claiming the methodology was sound? Why do you consider the issue I raised to only be a "possible" problem?

    Quote Originally Posted by nonpareil View Post
    Thanks for showing your error in reasoning. First of all, your attack on Nate Silver was an ad hominem. Second, how do you know the sky is blue? The sky is black where I currently am. Third, Jennie doesn't have to be a girl.
    1. My "attack" on Nate was not an ad hominem. It was an insult and nothing more -- it never entered my line of reasoning.
    2. Uhh... yeah, both illustrations of why propositions are typically defined as statements that can be true or false.

    I mean, if you don't even know what a proposition is -- one of the most basic concepts in logic -- I can't see why anyone would seriously consider anything you have to say on the subject of fallacies.

    Now THAT'S an ad hominem!
    (and here's to hoping it comes across in the good-natured sort-of-way I intended -- note the smilies)

    ----

    Hope to get to the rest tonight and before I leave for a four day trip to MiddleofKnowhere, Utah.
    Last edited by Taylor; 04-06-11 at 05:19 PM.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by danarhea View Post
    Smart move. The US made money.
    The ****er kept it secret, for that he deserves removal.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    My earlier comment was in reference to the thread topic and the Nate Silver trendline - both of which purport to show a recent and signficant rise in unfavorable views. Do you believe that sufficient evidence exists for a "definite trend" in recent months? If so, we can compare evidence.

    If instead, your claim of "increasing unfavorable views" is (as I suspect) largely based on the early data, we can save ourselves the trouble. I certainly recognize that many polls show a significant rise in unfavorability in the early part of 2010. It appears that a good number of those who were still undecided as of late Jan developed unfavorable views of the tea party over the next month or two.

    It's much harder to argue for a reliable trend after that point. From Summer 2010 forward, unfavorability is rather flat (the one notable exception of course being CNN).
    Okay, so to be clear you are saying that there was an increase in unfavourable view but in 2010 and not recently.
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

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