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Thread: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

  1. #131
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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    It was an attempt at humor and a nod to the bias in the media section of the forum. I knew exactly what I was doing.
    OK. my mistake.
    The national security of the United States can never be left in the hands of liberals.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by Ron Mars View Post
    OK. my mistake.
    For future reference, I am big on irony.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by nonpareil View Post
    Are they sufficiently different? I read some of them and they are very similiar:
    Having conducted a number of surveys, I can tell you first hand that the wording of the item can GREATLY impact the results. We’ve sometimes spent an hour or more quibbling over a single word. So what you describe as "very similar" may in fact be very similar but lead to very dissimilar results nonetheless.

    That being said, I’m not as concerned about differences in the wording of that portion of each item - (I’d be willing to bet that order effects would play a more significant role) – a much bigger problem is that he’s combining data that was collected using different scales. Here a just a few illustrative examples:

    ABC: Favorable, Unfavorable, or Unsure?
    CBS: Favorable, Not favorable, Undecided, Haven’t heard enough or Refuse to answer?
    NBC: Very positive, Somewhat positive, Neutral, Somewhat negative, Very negative, or Don’t know?
    USA: Favorable, Unfavorable, Never heard of it, or Unsure?
    AP: Favorable, Unfavorable, Neither, Unsure?

    This is a huge problem for lots of reasons!

    To illustrate a few by comparing the first two polls:

    1) Respondents for ABC have almost a forced choice comparison between Favorable and Unfavorable – "Unsure" is included as a catch-all, but people can interpret that in a variety of ways which (I assume) is why a lot of the other polls break it out.

    2) Respondents for CBS are asked to indicate their opinion on a *much* different scale. Whereas the ABC poll tries to push people into a simple dichotomy, the CBS poll allows people ample room for that gray area with “undecided” and “haven’t heard enough” options. That latter option is especially noteworthy in that it brings certainty into the equation, prompting a “favorable/not favorable” response only when you’re reasonably sure you won’t change your mind in the future.

    They’re really two different questions. You would expect that someone with limited exposure (maybe they caught a few negative headlines) – would classify their opinion as “unfavorable” on the ABC poll, and maybe “haven’t heard enough” on the CBS poll.

    Predictably, people are less willing to commit to a favorable/unfavorable opinion when they are given choices that more closely reflect their opinion. People consistently report "unfavorable" opinions at roughly twice the rate as those in the CBS poll:

    ABC
    36% Favorable
    48% Unfavorable
    16% Unsure

    CBS
    18% Favorable
    25% Unfavorable
    19% Undecided
    36% Haven't heard enough to decide
    2% Refused to answer

    Going back to the trendline, hopefully the above is sufficient to show that his trendline doesn't have a consistent meaning - what it means to "unfavorable" changes depending on which polls are used to determine a given point on the curve. Further, it's not difficult to imagine that spurious trends could appear simply because of how the CBS poll and other "low predictors" are temporally distributed in relation to the ABC poll and other "high predictors."

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by nonpareil View Post
    This problem also plagues other forms of empirical reviews. So do you claim that this kind of statistical technique is not credible or that there is a problem just with this particular case - if the latter, you haven't shown us information regarding this particular case to show that the differences in sampling techniques is enough to make the result unreliable. You just made a generalised unsupported claim.
    If by "other forms of empirical reviews" you are referring to something like a meta analysis, then yes, we should recognize that they can deal with some of these differences, but I don't think you will ever find a published review where the methodology involves divorcing the data from the parent studies, dumping it all into a common hopper, and deriving a conclusion from a single trendline with no indiction of goodness of fit. Of course, the standard for academic work is much higher than what you'll find in a typical blog post, so it's not really a good comparison.

    I really have no idea why this guy gets away with such junk. I guess he's had some successes that lead people to overlook his faults, or maybe he's popular among his circle of readers and nobody wants to face an angry mob. Zogby called him on some of the same stuff I took issue with in another thread, but was kind of half kissing his ass at the same time.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Oh my goodness...what will we do?

    Our "unfavorability" is going up amongst that watch CNN.....we aren't worriedabout it kids.
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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by megaprogman View Post
    For future reference, I am big on irony.
    good...me too
    The national security of the United States can never be left in the hands of liberals.

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    lets do this one at a time. show me how the tea party is against an "equal and just society"....
    How about you learn to read properly and we'll just need to do it just one time?


    Quote Originally Posted by nonpareil View Post

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    So lets pretend this is ALL true and not part of the democrat hit machine obama re-election need an enemy mission...

    Are you saying folks no longer want smaller government, more accountable reps, reduced spending, and lower taxes? I don't think so, call it the Tea party or whatever, its the ideals of the tea party folks want, not so much a tea "P"arty.


    This is who we are.


    Why does anyone have to pretend to anything?



    Is there anyone who is not for better access to education, equal and just society, reducing poverty etc...? What the hell does all that means? How do you make government small - by attacking the Unions? How to get Representatives to be more accountable - by gerrymandering? How do you reduce spending - by cutting Planned Parenthood but ask for tax credit for corporations? How do you cut taxes - at the expense of what and whom? Some people feel reducing the deficit is more important than cutting taxes right now.

    Political rhetoric is all fine and dandy but the devil is in the details.
    Last edited by nonpareil; 04-06-11 at 11:59 AM.
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by nonpareil View Post
    How about you learn to read properly and we'll just need to do it just one time?

    So you have no answer as expected.


    You can not explain how the tea party is against "equal and just society" as you claimed. Noted.
    Let evil swiftly befall those who have wrongly condemned us

  9. #139
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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    When I claimed to have pointed out flawed methodology, that's precisely what I was referring to.
    Maybe that's what you think, but since you only offer one legitimate possible problem (aggregation) - you are inflating your claim to the "flawed methodology".

    I also went on to claim that the poll items he treats as equal are anything but.
    Where did you claim this?

    [Also, "Nate Silver is a hack" is no more a fallacy than "the sky is blue" or "Jennie is a girl" -- these are all simple propositions. A fallacy refers to an error in reasoning.]
    Thanks for showing your error in reasoning. First of all, your attack on Nate Silver was an ad hominem. Second, how do you know the sky is blue? The sky is black where I currently am. Third, Jennie doesn't have to be a girl.

    Haha, no I most certainly did NOT say that "anyone who doesn't agree that the data is inaccurate is a partisan hack."
    I had to paraphrase. You said:

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    I don't, but I really don't need one. I've pointed out that the methodology is flawed. Knowing that, only a blind partisan would *assume* the data to be accurate. If you think there's merit despite the problems I've outlined, it's up to you to argue why.

    I said that anyone who recognizes that the methodology used is flawed but nonetheless assumes the data is accurate is a "blind partisan":

    The key words there are "knowing that" -- I am making no claims as to those who don't recognize that the methodology is flawed.
    You are still doing the same thing. So now, those who disagree with you are either "partisan hacks" or "ignorant of the methology flaws". All without you having to demontrate how they are sufficiently flawed for the result to be invalid.

    Again, there's no "fallacy" here.
    This is just counter factual. I have documented the fallacies you used.

    Whether or not I'm correct (again, a proposition) has very little to do with whether I've proved that to you or anyone else (another proposition). If you'd like to try to characterize an argument that I made that you think is fallacious, I'd be happy to go over that.
    I already did: I asked if you have anything to show that the polls don't agree. To which you replied that "you don't, and you don't really need to".

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    I'm glad you asked. I looked at the data and therefore had all of the evidence I needed to make the claim. The data is readily available to anyone that wants to view it. If they want to take issue with my claim, I am happy to address the issue or rescind the claim as need be.

    On the other hand, I have little patience for people who put no thought or effort into the discussion beyond linking to someone else's work, and who then assume that it is fact unless I or someone else expends actual thought and energy to prove it wrong. In that case, I could really care less whether such a person believes me or not - if they want to remain ignorant, so be it.

    [just to clarify, I don't mean point fingers at specific people as if they approach every thread in this manner. I should have instead referred to "instances in which people..."]
    I don't understand why this is so difficult, if you can clearly point out how the polls don't agree about the trend, why not just point it out since the first post so we don't have to go through this dance?
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

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    Re: CNN Poll: Unfavorable view of tea party on the rise

    Quote Originally Posted by ReverendHellh0und View Post
    So you have no answer as expected.


    You can not explain how the tea party is against "equal and just society" as you claimed. Noted.
    Since I never said that the Tea Party is against "equal and just society", quite the opposite, I hope you note it and make more informed comment about my post next time.
    Quote Originally Posted by Free_Radical View Post

    And I wasn't making an appeal to authority, I was making an appeal to the philosophical body of work of the founders, the worth and content of which should be well-known to anyone with a cursory understanding of basic history and philosophy.

    Brian

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